Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 231546

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
946 AM MDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Issued at 946 AM MDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Overall forecast in great shape as region under sunny skies with
temps currently in the 50s. Winds NNE in the 10 to 20 mph range...
especially in KS/NE. Some locales were a bit underdone based on
current have tweaked winds up thru the next couple hours.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 228 AM MDT Sun Oct 23 2016

Early morning WV imagery and RAP upper level analysis shows broad
ridge still in place across southern plains, with westerly flow
across the northern plains. A shortwave trough is currently moving
east through the main flow across the northern plains with the
southern extent of this feature over our CWa. A weak cold front has
moved into our northern CWA, and is now moving into our NW Kansas

Today-Tuesday night: Weaker ridging will be in place through Monday
allowing for more of a westerly zonal flow to dominate the Central
High Plains region. A shortwave is still projected to move out of
the northern plains and across Kansas, but as with previous days
trends are towards forcing/deep moisture to remain well east of our
CWA. There is still a weak precip signal Tue evening in our far
southeast, but confidence is low due to current track and the amount
of dry/stable air advecting over our CWA.

Regarding temperatures: Above normal temperatures will continue
today despite the weak cold front passage with upper 60s to lower
70s for most locations. Highs will gradually increase Monday and
Tuesday with 80F temps returning by Tuesday. Tue highs could be
complicated by any lingering stratus, but overall consensus is still
favoring these warmer temps. Lows Monday night could be particularly
mild as Tds increase and stratus may develop.

Regarding fog Monday night/Tuesday morning: NAM/SREF are still
showing a strong fog signal with potential for BL moisture pooling
against surface trough due to moist southeasterly flow. I increased
fog coverage in line with these trends. Potential exists for dense
fog, but GFS is still not showing BL RH quite as favorable for
much of our CWA (more to our northeast). This could be dependent
on timing/position of surface trough as low level flow begins to
shift to the SW behind this feature and drier air advects west to

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 228 AM MDT Sun Oct 23 2016

H5 ridge will build eastward out of the Great Basin as we head into
Wednesday with northwest flow aloft. The axis of the ridge is
expected to remain to our west with its influence extending eastward
through Thursday and Friday, keeping dry air and warmer than normal
temperatures firmly entrenched across the central High Plains. A
shortwave will push across the region Friday with southwest flow out
ahead of the associated cold front. This will serve to bring
temperatures to near or just above 80 degrees on Thursday and
Friday. There could be a fire weather risk for Thursday and Friday
as dew points will be in the 30s in the western half of the CWA with
gusty winds. Cooler air moves in behind the front for Saturday and
Sunday with highs in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees; however this
is still around 5 to 8 degrees above the seasonal average for late


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 516 AM MDT Sun Oct 23 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period at KGLD and
KMCK terminals. Winds have shifted to the north behind a front
that is now in SW Kansas. A brief period of low level wind shear
is ongoing behind this front, but should end as a LLJ transitions
southward early in the TAF period. There will be a slight increase
in winds from the northeast this morning with gusts 15-20kt
possible at KGLD. Winds eventually decrease below 12kt this
afternoon at both terminals, and shift from the northeast to the
east and then southeast as high pressure settles into the plains.




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