Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 220829
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
229 AM MDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 245 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 2017

Am expecting a generally clear sky tonight with a westerly component
to the wind in the 5 to 12 mph range. Dewpoints will be in the mid
teens to low 20s. Question will be how much of the forecast area
experiences freezing/sub freezing temperatures. Blending better
performing bias corrected grids with MET/MAV guidance shows lows in
the 30 to 35 degree range (west to east). This may work well given
the expected winds which should be enough to keep atmosphere mixed.
However, will be going a few degrees under above mentioned guidance
just in case winds are a little lighter and not as widespread
(valleys, etc) which produces lows in the mid 20s to near 30 in far
eastern Colorado, upper 20s to low 30s elsewhere. Graham county is
the only county not below 32 degrees tonight and with a forecast low
of 33 very close to call with regard to whether or not to go with a
Freeze warning. Per coordination with Dodge City office will keep
Graham county in the Freeze Warning.

For Sunday am expecting afternoon temperatures to peak in the low
70s under a generally sunny sky. Winds slowly increase from the
west and southwest with speeds in the 10 to 20 mph range with some
locally higher gusts in the late morning through mid afternoon
hours.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 229 AM MDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Weak northwest flow will prevail on Wednesday as a narrow ridge is
wedged in between two deep troughs, one to our east and an
approaching trough diving southward out of western Canada.
Temperatures on Wednesday should be able to climb all the way into
the middle to upper 70s across the CWA as this axis traverses the
region during peak daytime heating potential.

Things cool off very quickly late Wednesday night heading into
Thursday as heights fall rapidly in association with the approaching
trough and cold front. The cold front will be completely clear of
the CWA by late Thursday afternoon with temperatures falling sharply
as sunset approaches. There will be a chance of precipitation as the
front quickly pushes clear of the region with rain changing to a
snow or rain/snow mix during the afternoon mainly in the western
half of the CWA. Most areas that have not met hard freeze criteria
will very likely do so on Thursday night as temperatures fall into
the middle to upper 20s.

Strong CAA will continue into Friday with daytime high temperatures
only expected to reach the middle 40s in what will likely be our
coldest air mass thus far this season. Lows will fall into the lower
to middle 20s across the entire CWA Friday night. Below average
temperatures will continue into Saturday with near normal values
expected as we head into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1135 PM MDT Sat Oct 21 2017

VFR conditions expected for both taf sites thru the forecast
period. Winds WNW around 10kts thru 10z...then WSW 5-15kts. Gusts
to 25kts possible 17z-01z. LLWS 06z-10z 340/350 @ 50kts.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Freeze Warning until 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...NONE.
NE...Freeze Warning until 8 AM MDT /9 AM CDT/ this morning for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JN



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