Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 210920
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
220 AM MST Tue Feb 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday night)
Issued at 220 AM MST Tue Feb 21 2017

Today-tonight...should see several high temperature records set
today as combination of 850mb temperatures and better performing
bias corrected grids suggest low to upper 70s across the area. See
climate section below for list of records for today. A sunny day
also expected with winds becoming west to northwest at speeds
ranging from around 5 mph across the far south to 15 to 20 mph
across the far north. A batch of high clouds move across the area
tonight with winds from the west and southwest at 5 to 15 mph. Low
temperatures in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...some cooler air moves into the area from
the north and northwest with low 60s to low 70s for highs (northwest
to southeast). These readings are still at least 20 degrees above
normal. Low temperatures in the upper 20s to mid 30s (west to
east).

Thursday-Thursday night...a very broad upper trough moves into the
area during the day with a disturbance embedded within it moving to
the north of the area late in the day. Precipitation chances
increase from north to south with precipitation type at this time
all rain. With poor detail amongst the models in the exact sfc and
850mb temperatures its possible for some of the rain to change over
to snow quicker then currently advertised. High temperatures
currently expected to range from the low 40s far northwest to near
60 far south, certainly subject to change. For the nighttime hours
will have a gradual changeover to snow from west to east as colder
air aloft moves in. Low temperatures in the low to upper 20s. North
winds generally 15 to 20 mph. Snowfall accumulations of around 1/2
inch, mainly along and north of the KS/NE border.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 132 AM MST Tue Feb 21 2017

Friday: GFS/ECMWF differ slightly on strength of system as it
transitions eastward Friday morning. ECMWF shows broadly closed H7
low over our northern CWA allowing for lingering light snow possibly
into the afternoon period Friday. Amounts would be minimal if ECMWF
were to verify (additional dusting to 1" in our north). GFS is
faster and further northeast, and shows very little precip potential
during the day Friday (maybe our far north/northeast).

Besides precip chances, this variance in track also results in a
difference in surface pattern as GFS shows WAA in our southwest and
slight moderation of temps aloft. ECMWF on the other hand keeps
persistent cloud cover over our north. On one end of guidance highs
may get above freezing, the other we may not see highs out of the
20s. I leaned colder in our north and kept PoPs in place mainly in
the morning as a compromise. I also bumped up winds as BL winds and
surface gradient should support sustained winds around 20 mph. These
winds could be underdone depending on mixing. This would likely be
limited in post frontal environment of ECMWF, while GFS may support
higher winds.

Saturday-Monday: Westerly flow transitions to the southwest, with
rising heights, and a dry air mass reestablishing itself (as would
be expected in this flow). With frontal zone lingering near our CWA
Saturday and Sunday we should see near seasonal normals, though
there is still the possibility for stratus to develop along/north of
front which could throw off current highs. Guidance has trended both
dry regarding PoPs and warmer by Monday, with lee trough shifting
further into our CWA support of better WAA. GFS/GEM temps aloft
Monday are very similar to the past few warm ups (near 17C at H85)
and if that verifies we could be looking at highs Sunday in the 70s.
ECMWF temps aloft are not quite as high, but based on current trends
and slight bias corrections 60F seems like a good starting point
at this range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 220 AM MST Tue Feb 21 2017

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period.

KGLD, southwest wind around 10kts at taf issuance expected to veer
to the northwest around 17z and gust near 20kts through 21z before
backing to the west near 10kts around 22z. After 23z winds from
the west-southwest under 10kts continue to back to the southwest
by 01z and continue through 05z. From 06z-09z winds increase near
15kts from the southwest but decrease to 10kts after 10z.

KMCK, west-southwest wind under 10kts at taf issuance expected to
veer to the west around 19z and gust around 20kts through 22z.
After 23z west wind near 10kts back to the southwest near 6kts
through the rest of the taf period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 220 AM MST Tue Feb 21 2017

Near critical fire weather conditions will exist across the entire
Tri-State area today as relative humidity falls below 15 percent.
For Yuma county Colorado west winds gusting over 25 mph are expected
and will combine with the low humidity to produce critical fire weather
conditions. Elsewhere wind gusts are expected to be below 25 mph thus
no fire weather highlites are currently anticipated.

Relative humidity remains low on Wednesday with the area under 20
percent. North winds of 10 to 15 mph are currently expected which
will remain below thresholds needed for a fire weather highlite.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 220 AM MST Tue Feb 21 2017

Record and near record high temperatures are expected today
for the following locations:

Goodland...........73 in 1995 and previous years
Hill City..........77 in 1977
McCook.............76 in 1933
Burlington.........72 in 2000
Colby..............74 in 1972 and previous years
Tribune............77 in 1924
Yuma...............72 in 1982

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 5 PM MST this
     afternoon for COZ252.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99
CLIMATE...99



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