Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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950
FXUS63 KGLD 071205
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
505 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 225 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM ARE THE WINDS TODAY
THROUGH MONDAY AND HOW THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE
AFFECTED BY THE REMAINING SNOW COVER.

WHILE THE MAIN UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION...THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TRANSPORTS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
EXTENDING SOUTHWARD FROM THE LOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION. AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE AREA OVERNIGHT...THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST
AND THE LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST INCREASES TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES...EXPECT WINDS SPEEDS...MAINLY
OVER THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON...TO
INCREASE TO BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH WITH GUSTS NEARING 50 MPH. THE
CONCERN WITH WINDS SPEEDS THAT HIGH OVER THE EXTENSIVE AREA OF
SNOW COVER IS THAT SOME SNOW MAY BE LIFTED AND BLOWN BY THE WINDS.
HOWEVER...GIVEN THE RECENT MELTING OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS...EXPECT
THAT THE SNOW IS CRUSTED OVER ENOUGH NOT TO BE AVAILABLE FOR
TRANSPORT BY THE WINDS. DO NOT EXPECT ANY DUST EITHER AS ANY OPEN
DIRT AREAS ARE WELL COVERED BY THE SNOW.

TEMPERATURES TODAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL BE ABOUT 5-10
DEGREES COOLER THAN YESTERDAY...BUT WILL INCREASE BACK INTO THE
LOWER 40S TO MID 50S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA BY TUESDAY AS THE
STRONG UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES TRANSLATES EAST
SOMEWHAT AND THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS BECOMES
MORE EXTENSIVE AND BEGINS TO MODIFY UNDER THE UPPER RIDGE. STILL
EXPECT THE SNOW COVER TO AFFECT TEMPERATURES AND HAVE TRIED TO
REMAIN CLOSER TO THE LOWER END OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES DURING
THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 138 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

FOR THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...THE PRIMARY TREND OBSERVED
SHOULD BE A WARMING TREND WITH PERSISTENT DRY WEATHER. A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED PATTERN LIKELY REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE UNITED STATES
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS PATTERN INCLUDES A MASSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SITUATED OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY AND A MASSIVE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE CONTROLLING THE PATTERN TO THE WEST. THIS LEAVES THE TRI-
STATE REGION DIRECTLY IN BETWEEN SYSTEMS UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW.
GUIDANCE IS STRUGGLING WITH WHICH PRESSURE SYSTEM...THE LOW TO THE
EAST OR THE HIGH TO THE WEST...WILL BE THE KEY INFLUENCING FACTOR TO
OUR WEATHER. AS A RESULT...CONFIDENCE IS LOWERED FURTHER IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST...ESPECIALLY FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

IF THE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE TO THE EAST WINS THE BATTLE...
ANTICIPATE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS PASSING THROUGH AND LIKELY BRINGING A
COLD FRONT OR TWO WITH IT. THIS MAY HAPPEN SATURDAY ACCORDING TO
SOME FORECAST GUIDANCE MEMBERS. HOWEVER...WITHOUT SIGNIFICANT
MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE FORECAST...ANY FRONTS/DISTURBANCES THAT
PASS THROUGH WOULD NOT PRODUCE ANY SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION...IF
ANY PRECIPITATION OCCURS AT ALL.

IF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST WINS...WARM WEATHER SHOULD
DOMINATE THE ENTIRE PERIOD. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONTS PASSING THROUGH THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN EAST. DRY
WEATHER IS LIKELY AND HOW WARM TEMPERATURES CLIMB DEPENDS ON ANY
REMAINING SNOW COVER...DAYTIME MIXING AND CLOUD COVER AMONG MANY
OTHER FACTORS. EITHER WAY...IF THE RIDGE DOMINATES OUR PATTERN...
EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 349 AM MST SUN FEB 7 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MCK AND GLD THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE MORNING...BECOMING
STRONG AND GUSTY AFTER BY 16Z WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 TO 30KTS
AND GUSTS APPROACHING 40KTS. WINDS WILL DECREASE AT THE SURFACE
FOLLOWING SUNSET...HOWEVER...WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE NIGHTTIME
INVERSION LAYER ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR 50KTS THROUGH MOST OF
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE THEREFORE INCLUDED WIND SHEAR THROUGH
THE NIGHT AT BOTH LOCATIONS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...LOCKHART



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