Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 170835
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
235 AM MDT Sun Sep 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 229 PM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017

Main forecast issues will be the chance of precipitation followed by
high cool to make the high temperatures through tomorrow. Skies have
cleared out. However, cold air advection has balanced the sunshine
with temperatures remaining nearly steady or very slowly rising.

For tonight, in regards to the precipitation chances. Models begin
to increase moisture and mid level lift late this evening and
especially during the overnight hours. At the same time and in the
same area, the mid level theta-e lapse become negative to allow a
good response to the lift. Also elevated instability develops with
the Nam showing a lot more.

Based on the above parameters coinciding with the model qpfs, am
confining the slight chance to chance pops to the southwest half.
Amounts should be light since there is a decent low level dry layer
to overcome. Believe the models are overdoing the rainfall amounts.
The Nam was too cool today with the remaining output too warm. If
cloud cover does not increase as fast as I think it will, the low
temperatures will need to be lowered from what I have in there.

For Sunday, models have rainfall lingering in the far north and the
southeast fringe through the morning. Next shortwave trough and
chance of precipitation approaches the far west late in the
afternoon and confined a slight chance to there. There is a huge
spread in high temperatures through 850 mb temp, 2 meter, and MOS
forecasts. The Nam looks too cool and the Gfs looks too warm. Cooled
off temperatures a little from the previous forecast which is real
close to what the Canadian has which is in the middle of the
extremes.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 234 AM MDT Sun Sep 17 2017

We will see a pattern shift continue into the extended period as
high pressure builds over the eastern CONUS and an amplified trough
takes shape in the west. All of the global models develop this
trough, each with slightly different timing and amplitude. Forecast
is biased slightly toward the ECMWF.

Wednesday and Thursday: CWA will be situated between the eastern
ridge and the developing western trough with west to southwest flow
aloft. Look for dry conditions both days with highs in the upper 70s
to lower 80s on Wednesday and upper 80s on Thursday.

Friday and Saturday: Upper flow becomes southerly as the trough
deepens with a nearly stationary axis extending down from western
Montana through the four corners region. Heights will begin to fall
late Friday and into Saturday with a theta-e boundary developing
across the western portions of the CWA in association with a cold
front. This will give us a chance of showers and thunderstorms that
will encompass the region both days. A few strong thunderstorms are
possible mainly on Friday along and east of the boundary. Highs on
Friday will climb into the middle 80s with middle 70s expected on
Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1010 PM MDT Sat Sep 16 2017

For KGLD, vfr conditions expected from taf issuance through about
10z with ifr/vlifr cigs 11z through rest of taf period. Winds
begin from the east near 6kts then slowly veer to the southeast
around 11kts by 18z and continue through rest of period. Am
expecting showers/possible thunderstorms near/over the terminal in
the 07z-10z timeframe as a weather disturbance lifts northeast
across the area. Behind the wave low level moisture increases per
nam/hrrr forecasts. GFS much less which makes for a difficult
forecast. Am going with nam/hrrr for the forecast which brings
increasing low level moisture into the area from the south.
Suppose their could be some drizzle as well.

For KMCK, vfr conditions expected through the period. Could see
ifr cigs in the 10z-18z timeframe. Winds generally from the
northeast slowly veering to the southeast through the period at
speeds under 10kts. Above mentioned weather disturbance looks to
move across the terminal in the 10z-13z timeframe with showers and
possible thunderstorms.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...99



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