Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 251131
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
531 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 524 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

WITH NO FOG BEING REPORTED HAVE TAKEN IT OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR
THE MORNING. ALSO REMOVED THE MENTION OF RAINFALL EARLY THIS
MORNING DUE TO THE SHOWERS ALREADY BEING EAST OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR AND SATELLITE DATA SHOW THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW
OVER NORTHERN COLORADO...SOUTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN NEBRASKA.
SMALLER SCALE SHORT WAVE TROUGHS CONTINUE TO ROTATE AROUND THE MAIN
FEATURE.  THE STRONGEST TROUGH HAS LED TO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FOR
THE HIGH PLAINS AND SOME SEVERE WEATHER IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS LAST
NIGHT.

TODAY WITH A PLENTIFUL MOISTURE FROM LAST NIGHT`S RAINFALL AND
HIGHER DEW POINTS ADVECTING INTO THE AREA...THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
THE AREA MAY SEE SOME FOG THIS MORNING.  GREELEY AND WICHITA
COUNTIES MAY HAVE THICKEST FOG...WITH VISIBILITIES DOWN TO A HALF
MILE OR SO FOR A COUPLE HOURS EARLY THIS MORNING.  OTHERWISE HAVE
NOTICED THE MODELS CONTINUE TO PUSH THE TRACK OF THE CLOSED LOW
FURTHER SOUTH.  THIS WILL PLACE THE MAJORITY OF THE BROAD LIFT SOUTH
OF THE AREA...BUT IT WILL BRING THE CENTER OF THE LOW CLOSER TO THE
NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA WHERE A SMALLER AREA OF MORE FOCUSED LIFT
WILL BE FOUND.  LOOKS LIKE CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL START LATE
MORNING AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM
THE WEST.  EXPECT MORE ISOLATED STORM COVERAGE TO BEGIN WITH...WITH
COVERAGE INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS INSTABILITY INCREASES
AND THE TROUGH DEEPENS.  AT THE SURFACE THE DRY LINE WILL BE OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA...FROM ROUGHLY A LEOTI TO HOXIE AND
NORTON LINE DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON...MOVING EAST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE DAY.  AS THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES OVER THE DRY LINE
STORM COVERAGE SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF
AREA.  STORMS OVER THIS PART OF THE AREA MAY TRAIN DUE TO THE
NORTHEAST TRACK OF THE STORMS BEING CLOSE TO PARALLEL WITH THE DRY
LINE.  BY LATE AFTERNOON THERE SHOULD BE TWO MAIN GROUPS OF
STORMS..ONE OVER THE NEBRASKA COUNTIES AND ONE OF THE SOUTHEAST PART
OF THE AREA...WITH MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STORMS INBETWEEN DUE
TO WEAKER MORE BROAD LIFT AND SOME INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH.

SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY EAST OF THE DRY LINE DUE TO
MIXED LAYER CAPE UP TO 1000 J/KG OR SO AND DEEP LAYER SHEAR OF
30KTS. LARGE HAIL UP TO QUARTER SIZE IS POSSIBLE ALONG WITH SEVERE
WIND GUSTS. THE SEVERE THREAT WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY MID
EVENING.

TONIGHT THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EAST 1/3 OF THE
AREA BY MID EVENING.  BY BEHIND THE TROUGH STORM COVERAGE WILL
DECLINE.  A SECOND SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH WHICH MAY
LEAD TO SOME ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING.  ANY STORMS SHOULD BE EAST
OF THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.  MEANWHILE A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 410 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE AREA
DURING THE DAY WHILE ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
AREA BEHIND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL BE WEAKER THAN THE LAST
ONE...WITH THE MAJORITY OF THE LIFT OCCURRING IN THE AFTERNOON AND
WEAKENING IN THE EVENING.  THE BEST CHANCE FOR RAINFALL WILL BE OVER
THE WEST HALF OF THE AREA.

WEDNESDAY A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.  EAST
OF THE MAIN FEATURE A STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE SOUTHWEST
UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST FROM IT AND BEGIN TO MOVE OVER
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  CURRENTLY LOOKS LIKE THE LIFT WILL
BE STRONGEST OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THAT PART OF THE
AREA ARE 75%-90% OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO MODERATE TO
BRIEFLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS.

WITH THE DRY LINE WEST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY HAVE MORE CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE WEATHER DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THAN THIS AFTERNOON.
MODELS SHOW 30KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR BUT ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT
WITH HIGHER MIXED LAYER CAPE OF 1500-2000 J/KG THAN THEY ARE WITH
THE CAPE FOR TODAY.   SEVERE STORMS MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE
EVENING DUE TO THE INSTABILITY LINGERING AND ELEVATED INSTABILITY
POSSIBLY DEVELOPING DURING THE LATE EVENING.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE STRONG SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN FURTHER AS
IT SLOWLY MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.  THE WEATHER SETUP LOOKS SIMILAR TO
THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS WHEN WIDESPREAD RAINFALL FELL ACROSS THE
AREA.  PRECIPITABLE WATER IS 90% OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
ACROSS THE AREA.  WITH STRONG...DEEP...PERSISTENT LIFT WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE AREA AND VERY ABUNDANT MOISTURE TO WORK
WITH...AM THINKING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL IS VERY LIKELY ACROSS
THE AREA.  WOULD HAVE GONE HIGHER WITH RAINFALL
CHANCES/AMOUNTS...BUT DECIDED NOT TO SINCE THIS IS TWO DAYS AWAY AND
THE FORECASTED TRACK/STRENGTH OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY CHANGE BY
THEN.

THE LONG TERM PERIOD BEGINS THURSDAY WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS INTO THE TRI STATE
AREA...WHICH WILL BRING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA.  BOTH ECMWF AND GFS MODELS INDICATE PLENTY OF
CAPE BETWEEN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG THURSDAY AFTERNOON...BUT A LACK OF
AN UPPER OR MID LEVEL JET WILL RESULT IN LITTLE BULK SHEAR OR STRONG
HELICITY VALUES IN THE PROFILE.  STORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY BE
SEVERE AND HAVE LARGE HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH DCAPE VALUES
BETWEEN 900 AND 1300 J/KG PER GFS MODEL SOUNDINGS. SURFACE FORCING
WILL BE IN QUESTION WITH A LACK OF A STRONG SURFACE BOUNDARY...BUT
THE GFS DOES HINT AT A SURFACE CONFLUENCE ZONE THAT COULD SPARK
CONVECTION IN THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING HOURS.  SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE INTO FRIDAY...WITH UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE WITH A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION. PROFILE CAPE WILL BE LESS BETWEEN 1000 AND 1800 J/KG AS A
RESULT OF WEAKER UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES...BUT IN COMBINATION WITH
SATURATED PROFILES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ABOVE 500 MB WITH STRONG
SOUTHERLY ADVECTION WILL RESULT IN EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION
PROCESSES.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 1 AND 1.3 INCHES IS
APPROACHING THE 99TH PERCENTILE IN CLIMATOLOGY ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT MOST OF THE AREA
SHOULD SEE SOME MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH
EXTREMELY SATURATED GFS MODEL SOUNDING PROFILES AND SIMILAR
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES TO FRIDAY. SATURDAY COULD HAVE WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...BUT KEPT THE FORECAST SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE DUE TO
FORECAST COLLABORATION THRESHOLDS.  FUTURE FORECASTS WILL MOST
LIKELY INCREASE POPS.

RAIN CHANCES WILL LINGER SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL CEASE BY SUNDAY
WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND
BRINGING DRY WEATHER FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 530 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A FEW DAYS TAFS ARE COMPLETELY VFR FOR BOTH
SITES. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO ALMOST BREEZY.
THIS AFTERNOON SCATTERED STORMS MAY MOVE NEAR OR OVER KMCK. KGLD
SHOULD BE SOUTH OF THE MAJORITY OF THE STORM ACTIVITY.
VISIBILITIES MAY DROP BRIEFLY DUE TO MODERATE RAINFALL WITH THE
STORMS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JTL/MK
AVIATION...JTL



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