Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 150528

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1028 PM MST Sun Jan 14 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 234 PM MST Sun Jan 14 2018

The short term concern is the cold air that is expected to begin
moving into the region between 00Z-06Z this evening. Along the
leading edge of the cold air, very light precipitation is expected
to begin as light rain with a transition to light snow as
temperatures drop below freezing through the evening. For a brief
time over a portion of east central Colorado there is just enough
of a warm layer aloft for the possibility of light freezing
drizzle or light freezing rain between 06Z-12Z. Beyond 12Z, the
cold air should be deep enough to produce all snow. The cold
surface high pressure area continues to push southward through the
central high plains into the southern high plains through the day
on Monday with light snow tapering off through the day. Up to one
inch or less total snowfall accumulation is anticipated.
Temperatures are expected to change little as a result as daytime
highs on Monday remain very near the early morning lows.
Temperatures are expected to be dramatically colder Monday night.

.LONG TERM...(Monday evening through Sunday)
Issued at 210 PM MST Sun Jan 14 2018

...Wind Chill Advisory in effect Monday evening through late
Tuesday morning...

Monday evening/Tuesday: With an arctic airmass (~1055 mb high)
building southward through the Dakotas into the Central Plains,
clearing skies, and possible fresh (albeit light) snow cover,
expect temperatures to plummet into the single digits in far
west/southwest portions of the area and 0 to -5F (perhaps a few
degrees lower if fresh snow cover is present) in north/northeast
portions of the area. In other words, coldest north of I-70 and
east of Hwy 25. Breezy north winds Monday evening will weaken
throughout the night, however, with such cold temperatures, a 7-12
mph breeze will be sufficient to maintain dangerous wind chill
readings as low as -15 to -25 degrees, coldest north of I-70 and
east of Hwy 25. At this point, confidence is sufficient to warrant
the issuance of a Wind Chill Advisory, which is in effect from
00-18Z Tue.

Tue-Sat: Model guidance continues to indicate an amplified/
progressive synoptic pattern over the CONUS through next weekend.
As a result, forecast uncertainty remains above average,
particularly with regard to precipitation chances. At this time,
the relative greatest potential for precipitation (light/fleeting
as it may appear) is on Sat/Sat night. In general, expect dry
conditions and large diurnal temperature ranges Tue-Sun.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1024 PM MST Sun Jan 14 2018

With snow bands impacting the area tonight, sub-VFR condition are
expected to prevail at the McCook and Goodland terminals.
Condition will start to improve after sunrise. Expecting winds to
be north at 10-15 knots throughout the TAF period.


KS...Wind Chill Advisory from 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ Monday to 11 AM MST
     /noon CST/ Tuesday for KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...Wind Chill Advisory from 5 PM Monday to 11 AM MST Tuesday for

NE...Wind Chill Advisory from 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ Monday to 11 AM MST
     /noon CST/ Tuesday for NEZ079>081.



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