Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 240216
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
716 PM MST Fri Feb 23 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 244 PM MST Fri Feb 23 2018

This evening light freezing drizzle and light snow will move in from
the west ahead of an approaching upper level short wave trough.
Precipitation should extend over most if not all the Tri-State Area
by midnight local time.  Meanwhile a band of frontogenesis will
develop over the northwest part of the Tri-State Area.  Once this
band forms it will not move for several hours.  Theta-e lapse rates
indicate convective snowfall is likely, which may lead to locally
higher amounts than forecast for Yuma County.

Southeast of the band of moderate to possibly heavy snowfall,
freezing drizzle will occur.  Have moderate confidence regarding
where the cross over from snow to freezing drizzle will be.
Currently have the transition zone extending from Burlington to
Atwood and McCook, with freezing drizzle being the dominant
precipitation type southeast of this line.  If the low level
temperatures are a couple degrees cooler than currently shown, snow
will end up being a bit further south than forecast. However, did
try to take this into account.  If the freezing drizzle ends up
being further north, ice totals will increase for this part of the
Tri-State Area.  Vise Versa if the snow extends further south.  Most
of the freezing drizzle will occur after midnight through Saturday
morning before changing to snow.

Meanwhile the band of snow will move east early Saturday morning.
Precipitation will change to all snow as the band moves east.
Precipitation will end from west to east behind the band Saturday
morning.

As the snowfall ends Saturday morning, northwest winds will
increase, gusting 25-35 MPH, and the sky will clear.  The gusty
winds, combined with the weight of the ice on tree limbs and power
lines, may lead to power outages.

Impacts... Snow packed and/or icy roadways.  Visibility may fall to
less than half a mile under the band of snow during the night. Roads
may become impassable due to the ice.

Looking back at the freezing drizzle event from 12/21/17, only a few
hundredths of an inch of ice occurred that day.  The glaze of ice
lead to hazardous driving conditions, with many slide offs and a few
rollover accidents.  This upcoming event will have much higher ice
totals, so the impacts from ice will be greater.  Foresee roadways
becoming a sheet of ice if they are not already treated.

Due to freezing drizzle impacting the rest of the Tri-State Area
not already in the advisory, have expanded the advisory.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 1245 PM MST Fri Feb 23 2018

Saturday night through Monday night...dry weather expected. Mid and
upper level clouds increase from west to east Saturday night then
clearing from west to east Sunday. May see some high clouds Sunday
night before they lift north and out of much of the area Monday. Low
temperatures Saturday night and Sunday night generally in the 10 to
20 degree range. High temperatures Sunday range from the upper 30s
to low 40s in far eastern Colorado to the upper 40s across the east.
For Monday low 50s in far eastern Colorado to near 60 across the
east.

Will have to watch winds Sunday afternoon. Currently expecting
speeds in the 10 to 15 mph range but could be a bit higher. Current
relative humidity forecast is for around 20 percent in Greeley and
Wichita counties. May have borderline fire weather issues if the low
humidity and a bit higher winds pan out.

A bit better chance for critical fire weather conditions to be met
generally along and south of Interstate 70 as rh values fall below
20 percent with sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph with some higher
gusts. Will address this concern in the updated fire weather
forecast and hazardous weather outlook.

For Monday night low temperatures in the mid teens west to mid/upper
20s far east. Could see some increase in high clouds across the
extreme northwest corner of the area.

Tuesday-Wednesday...There will be a slight chance for light snow
Tuesday night generally from near Trenton to Yuma and points north
as some moisture in the 850-500mb column moves in ahead of what the
GFS shows as an upper trough. This then moves across the remainder
of the area Wednesday morning. The ECMWF and GEM show a closed low
over central Arizona early moving into west Texas with no
precipitation forecast for our area. High temperatures Tuesday in
the low 40s north to mid 50s south, lows in the upper teens to low
20s. Highs on Wednesday in the upper 30s north to mid 40s south.

Thursday through Friday...dry weather expected at present time.
After morning lows in the mid teens to low 20s Thursday morning
highs should reach the mid 40s to low 50s. Lows Thursday night in
the upper teens to mid 20s with highs Friday in the upper 40s north
to upper 50s south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 700 PM MST Fri Feb 23 2018

24-HR TAF PERIOD: VFR conditions will give way to IFR ceilings and
visbys associated with stratus/fog after midnight, with IFR/LIFR
conditions assoc/w freezing drizzle and snow likely between
09-18Z. Expect VFR conditions to return 18-21Z Saturday afternoon
with rapid clearing and NW winds increasing to 20-25 knots with gusts
up to 30-35 knots.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST /noon CST/ Saturday for
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Saturday for COZ090>092.

NE...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST /noon CST/ Saturday for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...VINCENT



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