Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 271041

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
441 AM MDT Thu Jul 27 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 333 AM MDT Thu Jul 27 2017

The center of the high pressure area aloft retrogrades westward
from the southern high plains region to the desert southwest
through Saturday night. As the apex of the upper ridge axis also
shifts westward, several embedded short wave troughs in the
westerly flow moving across the northern tier of states and those
embedded in the circulation around the high moving out of the
extreme southwest U.S. move east of the rockies and across the
central high plains during the short term period.

Surface high pressure also slips from the northern plains into
the Great Lakes region with the southern extent of the high
pressure area extending into the southern high plains moving into
the southern plains. This will keep the moist southerly flow
mainly in place across the southern plains directed into the
southern and central high plains region. As a result, a few
lingering showers will be noted across the southern sections of
the forecast area today with dry conditions later today and
tonight as the surface high pressure moved into the area and high
pressure aloft is centered over the area. As the high aloft
retrogrades moves west of the area with the moist south to
southeasterly upslope flow becomes more focused on the front
range area, scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop
through the day on Friday and Friday night with additional storms
expected Saturday and Saturday night. With the high precipitable
moisture and upslope conditions, there is a possibility of heavy
rainfall associated with the thunderstorms mainly across the
western and southern sections of the forecast area on Friday and
Saturday. There is also a possibility of some storms becoming
severe during the late afternoon and evening on Friday as the more
significant short wave trough crests the upper ridge.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 216 AM MDT Thu
Jul 27 2017

During the extended period the overall pattern has a large upper-
level ridge continues to be the major influence over our region.
This ridge looks to shift towards the west during this time frame
and produce predominantly northwest upper level flow over our area.
This pattern looks to aid in providing relief to the very hot and
dry conditions we observed over the past couple of weeks.

The models are showing short wave troughs moving around the upper
level high`s perimeter within the northwest flow aloft early in this
period. This should aid in the development of showers and
thunderstorms over the Rockies that will spread eastward to
southeastward into the plains. Further more, on the surface, and
towards the end of the extended, a cold front looks to move over the
region and become stationary. Add moisture being advected from the
gulf region within the southeast to south surface flow, this
boundary will aid in the development of additional storms over the

To summarize, there are chances of showers and thunderstorms for
each day in the extended, especially on Monday and Tuesday. Some
storms may become severe. Afternoon high temperatures are expected
to be below normal, with the highs reaching into the 80s. Overnight
lows look to maintain in the lower to middle 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1046 PM MDT Wed Jul 26 2017

KGLD: MVFR ceilings will become IFR after 07Z with light upslope surface
winds and a very moist lower atmosphere. Rapid improvement 13Z-15Z
then VFR remainder of TAF period under surface high pressure.
Light NE winds overnight will transition to ESE by 18Z Thursday.

KMCK: VFR CIGS overnight with light NE winds. Some concern MVFR
CIGS will develop later tonight but confidence is not high. Added
a SCT deck at FL012 to cover uncertainty. VFR Thursday with light
ENE-E winds as surface high builds into the region.




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