Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 162055
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
255 PM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Gradual warming trend with above normal temperatures Monday
  through Saturday.

- 20%-30% chances for rain showers off and on Thursday night
  through Saturday night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 110 PM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024

Tonight...high clouds are forecast to increase for locations
generally along and south of the KS/NE border through midnight
before decreasing from north to south as an upper level trough and
its cold front move through. Low temperatures are forecast to be in
the middle 20s to around 30. No precipitation is expected.

Sunday-Sunday night...the 500mb pattern features a rather strong low
pressure system and its associated trough over the east coast with
stronger than normal high pressure over the pacific northwest states
with our area under northerly flow in between the two. A cutoff low
pressure system was spinning over Arizona. A weak cold front moves
through during the late morning, allowing for northerly winds to
gust up to 30 mph in the afternoon. High temperatures cool a few
degrees back into the lower to middle 50s. Low temperatures fall
into the upper teens to lower 20s. No precipitation is
expected.

Monday-Monday night...the forecast area remains under weak northwest
flow aloft, in between low pressure across the east coast and cutoff
low over western Arizona with high pressure centered over Idaho.
Widespread sunshine and warmer temperatures into the middle 50s to
lower 60s are expected with low temperatures in the 30s.

Tuesday-Tuesday night...this mornings GFS/ECMWF/GEM/GEFS models are
advertising the upper low over western Arizona Monday to slowly move
into the four corners area of Colorado by 12z Wednesday. At this
time, the only impact for area is a bit of increasing cloudiness
from the southwest overnight. High temperatures look to be similar
to 24 hours ago with lower 60s to around 70 expected. Low
temperatures fall into the lower to middle 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Issued at 101 PM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024

At the start of the long term period, broad upper level troughing is
stretched across the eastern half of the CONUS and a center of low
pressure is situated near the Four Corners region while upper level
ridging pushes east into the western CONUS. Progression of the low
to our south will draw moisture along with it, allowing parts of the
area to see a few chances (15-20%) for precipitation beginning
during the latter part of the week, with better/more widespread
chances (20-30%) possible late in the work week into the weekend. A
cold front moving through Thursday into Friday may see a transition
to or a mix with snow. Mild temperatures are forecast to persist,
generally above or near to above normal, with highs mainly in the
60s and lows in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 255 PM MDT Sat Mar 16 2024

KGLD...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A light
north wind at taf issuance will become light and variable from
03z-12z. After 13z, northwest winds under 10kts in the morning
increase in the afternoon with gusts to 30kts likely.

KMCK...VFR conditions are expected through the period. A
northerly wind around 11kts at taf issuance will decrease while
backing to the northwest after 03z. After about 18z, northerly
winds increase with gusts up to 30kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...99


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