Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
FXUS63 KGLD 200735
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
135 AM MDT SAT AUG 20 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 135 AM MDT Sat Aug 20 2016
Across the Tri state region this morning...Fall-like temps ranging
from the lower to mid 50s west to the lower to mid 60s east...
encompass the area as high pressure builds southeast into the Plains
Region behind exiting shortwave. The CAA out ahead of the surface
ridge is accompanied by decent gradient with gusts over many locales
ranging from 15-25 mph.
For today across the area...expecting a decrease in gradient winds
along with low clouds currently blanketing the area in response to
proximity to exiting shortwave. This will go in tandem with high
pressure working over the Plains to provide a nice dry day...on into
the evening hours.
By Sunday and on into Monday...models shift surface ridge off to the
east southeast allowing for a SSW gradient to build across the area.
This will put an end to the cooler airmass over the region. Strong
WAA will bring back highs ranging from the mid 80s to around
90F...versus the mid to upper 70s for Today. These numbers are
slightly above model guidance to account for Friday`s highs above
model guidance by a few degrees.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 132 PM MDT Fri Aug 19 2016
Forecast issues will be how much temperatures rise the beginning of
next week and the chances of rainfall beginning in the middle of
next week. Satellite showing showing an amplified flow from the
central Pacific into eastern North America.
Saturday night...Area under subsidence as strong system digs into
the north central portion of the country. Potentially a really cool
night as light and variable winds will be in place as a result of
the surface winds moving through and to the east of the area.
Considering what the analysis is showing upstream, did lower the
low temperatures a little and went toward the cooler guidance.
Sunday/Sunday night...Ridging and much drier air mass pushes over
the area. This will keep conditions dry. Southerly winds will
increase, getting close to breezy, and will bring in warmer air.
Models may be a little warm considering the cooler start and
southerly winds will probably have some recycled cool air in it.
Monday...Ridging flattens and gets pushed east as next trough
develops/moves into the western portion of the country. Strong upper
system is in the northern portion, over southwest Canada, of this
trough. Surface focus looks to remain to the west of the area
through the day. Weak shortwave trough will still be out to the
west. Air mass is still pretty dry and the lift is weak and still
out to the west. So will keep it dry for now. Air mass looks
warmer and raised a few degrees from the expected Sunday maxes.
Monday night through Friday...Next cold front moves into the area at
the beginning of this period. A lee side/prefrontal surface is over
the western portion of the area in advance of this next cold front.
As result of these boundaries, and another front later in the week,
and several shortwave troughs moving through the mean trough/west to
northwest flow aloft will make for a cooler and more active period.
After above normal high temperatures on Tuesday, the remainder of
the period looks to near to a little below normal. There looks to be
a chance for thunderstorms each day with Thursday and thursday
night having the least chance. The forecast blend catches this
nicely, is reasonable, and did not make any changes.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1128 PM MDT Fri Aug 19 2016
For KGLD...a mix of MVFR/VFR thru 08z Saturday with ceilings
ranging from ovc015 to ovc050. From 08z onward...VFR with a mix of
scattered mid/high clouds. Winds north 15-25kts thru 11z
Saturday...then diminishing to 5-10kts. Northeast winds around
10kts possible after 02z Sunday.
For KMCK...Mainly VFR conditions expected with broken mid cloud
deck around 060-080 giving way to SKC by 12z Saturday. Period of
MVFR ceilings around ovc015 from 06z-08z. Winds north around 10kts
thru 12z Saturday...then northwest around 10kts.