Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 182015
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
215 PM MDT Tue Apr 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 215 PM MDT Tue Apr 18 2017

Cold front has settled into southwest Kansas this afternoon,
however as a shortwave trough lifts out of the central Rockies
tonight, cyclogenesis will occur near the Colorado-Kansas border
area. This will effectively lift the old front north as a warm
front, while a dry line develops southward from the low. Models
indicate the warm front will make it as far north as southwest
Nebraska after midnight, which is where any elevated thunderstorm
may develop. Confidence is rather low in that happening, however,
as the short term models keep the convection well north of the
local area. Might see some fog develop along and north of the warm
front as well with moist upslope low levels. Dry northwest winds
will take over by early afternoon as the shortwave trough lifts
out and the cold front sweeps southeastward. Expecting mostly
sunny skies Wednesday afternoon and temperatures warming into the
upper 70s to lower 80s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 240 AM MDT Tue Apr 18 2017

At the start of the extended period a strong system will be coming
off of the Rockies as a closed low before shifting into Plains and
then crossing over southeastern Kansas Friday night/Saturday
morning.  This system will allow for potential wide spread precip
for the Central High Plains region through Saturday morning.
Producing a potential of 0.60-1.00" of rain for the area.
Temperatures will be impacted by this system as well as high
temperatures will be cooler than what we have seen the past few
days.  Friday`s high will reach only into the upper 40s to the lower
50s.  While the overnight lows on Friday and Saturday will drop into
the middle 30s with some areas in the region seeing at or near
freezing.

As the system moves out of the Tri-State region on Saturday a high
pressure ridge build in behind it. This will influence the local
area with dry conditions into Monday. Temperatures will also start
to rebound with the highs reaching back into the low to mid 70s
by Monday.

The models are showing another shortwave moving into the
area on Monday. However; at this time this shortwave looks weak and
does not appear to be an impact to the area. We will know for sure
if this is the case in the next few model runs.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1126 AM MDT Tue Apr 18 2017

At KGLD...VFR expected through the TAF period. Cold front has
moved through the terminal with northeast surface winds early this
afternoon veering to southeast by late afternoon. A dry
line/surface trough will move through after midnight with winds
shifting to southwest, then a cold front Wednesday morning with
winds shifting to northwest.

At KMCK...VFR expected through the afternoon and evening hours.
Cold front may get hung up as a stationary front this afternoon
keeping surface winds easterly. After midnight, areas of low
clouds and patchy fog may develop near the front, reducing flight
categories through early Wednesday morning. An isolated
thunderstorm cannot be ruled out overnight, which if it develops
has the potential to produce large hail.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...024



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