Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 181056

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
456 AM MDT Sat Mar 18 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 151 AM MDT Sat Mar 18 2017

Across the Tri State region this morning...temperatures are ranging
from the mid 30s to the lower 40s under a veil of thin cirrus moving
thru the area. Winds are light and ranging from the ESE to the ENE
due to surface ridge pushing south thru the Plains region.

Going into today...the region is going to see yet another
warm...above normal day in terms of temperatures. Surface high
settling into the Plains will set up east of the area...with a lee-
side trough over the Front Range. This is going to give the CWA
developing southerly winds that will gust into the afternoon hrs as
a result of the tight gradient. These winds will aid in increasing
WAA into the region with 850mb temps reaching into the +15C to +22C
range. Warmest areas will across the western half of the CWA. Model
guidance continues to show daytime highs reaching into the 75-80F
range as a result...and again warmest locales west.

Accompanying the above normal warmth will again be a round of low
relative humidity that will drop down to a range of 15 to 25
percent. The lower readings will be concentrated in locales along
and west of the CO/KS thru the afternoon hrs during peak heating.
The result of this will be near critical fire wx conditions. Please
see fire wx section below.

For tonight...WSW surface flow will keep WAA into the area keeping
overnight lows well above normal in the lower to mid 40s.

Going into Sunday...forecast remains on track for the region to see
another above normal day in terms of temps...with many locales
approaching record high territory. Please refer to climate section
below. Lee-side trough over the Front Range shifts east into western
Kansas during the day...settling SE of the region by Sunday night.
While the system remains over the region for the day...the
combination of zonal flow aloft will increase 850 mb temps to the
+21C to +25C range...allowing for highs to reach the 85-90F range(30
to 35 degrees above normal).

For Sunday night on thru Monday night...transition period begins for
a trending down back to near normal temps. Sunday night will see a
similar scenario as tonight with lows in the 40s. Approaching
shortwave late in the day Monday will give locales a range of highs
from the mid 60s to the mid 70s. Coolest regions will be mainly
northern zones due to increasing clouds ahead of the shortwave that
will move over the ridge Monday night. Limited moisture with this
system will put main focus for pops over the northern tier w/ chance
numbers at best for light rain. Colder air wrapping in behind this
shortwave Monday night(lows in the mid 30s...could transition p-type
to light snow showers towards Tuesday morning with no accum.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 128 AM MDT Sat Mar 18 2017

Weak shortwave trough embedded in the zonal flow may result in a
few lingering rain/snow showers Tuesday morning. Surface
temperatures will be near or just above freezing which should
preclude any accumulating snow. Low level upslope looks to be
firmly entrenched across the high plains, which leads me to
believe cooler temperatures may be in order for Tuesday afternoon.
Models break out some light precipitation Tuesday night, but with
ridge building aloft, this precipitation, if it occurs, should be
very light. On Wednesday the upper flow turns southwest ahead of
an approaching trough, while the low level flow remains
southeasterly, which should allow at least some partial clearing
and a slight bump in temperatures. Lead shortwave approaches
Wednesday night, with the GFS in particular showing another round
of precipitation chances. However, the ECMWF begins to diverge at
this point, and by Thursday there are some fairly stark
differences between the models. The GFS shows a significant dry
slot overtaking the area, with isolated thunderstorms possible
early in the day, followed by dry, windy conditions in the
afternoon, potentially very dry and very windy. If that
materializes could see an extreme fire weather day. However, the
ECMWF is much slower with the upper trough, and consequently has
no dry slot and less wind. The models come into better alignment
Thursday night and Friday, both showing a cut off low developing
over southwestern Kansas and a chance for rain showers and perhaps
a few thunderstorms Thursday evening, mixed with or changing to
light snow in northeast Colorado late Thursday night or Friday
morning, with rain chances continuing into Friday. Little if any
accumulating snow is expected in Colorado with surface
temperatures near or just above freezing.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 456 AM MDT Sat Mar 18 2017

Conditions...VFR for both sites thru 09z Sunday...then VFR/MVFR
mix as fog develops...especially for KMCK.

Precip/Wx....only 3-6sm in fog after 09z Sunday...otherwise none

Winds........for KGLD SSE around 10-15kts thru 09z Sunday...then
SW around 10kts. Gusts 20-30kts possible from 18z Sat to 00z Sun.

For KMCK...light and variable thru 15z Saturday...then SSE
5-15kts. Gusts 20-25kts possible from 18z Sat to 00z Sun.

Low Level Wind Shear(LLWS)...for KMCK 09z-12z Sunday 210@35kts.
Flight level 015.


Issued at 151 AM MDT Sat Mar 18 2017

Saturday: Relative humidities of 15-20% can be expected along and
west of the Highway 27 corridor this afternoon. In addition
breezy south winds gusting to 30 MPH will develop over nearly all
the Tri-State Area. However the only place the low relative
humidity and breezy winds overlap will be between a Yuma, Stratton
and Kit Carson line and Highway 27, and only for an hour or two
during the latter half of the afternoon. Even though this narrow
corridor will not be quite low enough to meet critical fire
weather thresholds for relative humidity or long enough in
duration, the winds and dry fuels will still lead to near critical
fire weather conditions.

Sunday: Near critical conditions set for the entire CWA during the
afternoon hours as relative humidity readings will drop into the
10-20% range. The movement of a lee-side trough from the Front
Range into western Kansas during the day...will push any steady
wind gusts east of the CWA. The result will be the region does
not meet criteria at this time for any Red Flag Warning/Fire Wx
Watch issuances.


Issued at 151 AM MDT Sat Mar 18 2017

Daily high temperature records may be tied or broken across the
tri-state region Sunday.

Current Daily Records Sunday March 19:

Goodland.....90F in 1907
McCook.......87F in 2004
Burlington...93F in 1921
Hill City....89F in 1921
Colby........90F in 1921
Tribune......83F in 1972
Yuma.........79F in 2007




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