Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 181946

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
146 PM MDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Issued at 100 PM MDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Forecast grids were updated for tomorrow due to the upgrade of the
Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning and the issuance of a
Fire Weather Watch.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 100 PM MDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Dry conditions along with little to no cloud cover expected
through tomorrow. For Tuesday, refer to the fire weather section
below for that information. There is some model differences in
regards to the surface wind/pressure pattern and especially the
high temperatures.

Guidance seems to be cool, mainly 2 meter and Mos, for the western
portion of the area considering plenty of sun, dry air and ground,
and downslope winds. Guidance is warmer for the eastern portion
but that may be a little cool. Based on the 850 mb temperatures
and using a bias that works well in these kind of conditions, I
raised high temperatures into the 90s across most of the area
except for some upper 80s in the far west.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 146 PM MDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Quiet weather is anticipated to start off the long term period,
followed by precipitation chances late in the week through the
weekend. Temperatures fluctuate as a couple of rounds of cooler air
filter into the region.

An upper low pushes across southern Canada on Tuesday evening with a
cold front extending south across the northern Plains into Colorado.
A wave pushes the cold front through the region Tuesday night into
Wednesday, but with the main system to the north, am expecting dry

Dry weather is forecast Wednesday through early Friday. Surface
high pressure moves over the area on Wednesday behind the cold
front and temperatures decrease. The high starts to slide east
overnight, turning winds south. The pressure gradient tightens on
Thursday, strengthening southerly winds as they filter warmer air

A disturbance ejects across the High Plains from an upper trough and
over the western CONUS on Friday. This wave generates showers and
thunderstorms in the afternoon with chances increasing through the
weekend as a cold front slowly progresses through. Decent
instability amd ample shear look to be in place on Saturday, leading
to the potential for severe weather. This will need to be monitored
throughout the week. Additionally, PWAT values are projected to be
between 1 and 1.5 inches which could favor heavy rainfall and flash
flooding. Shower and thunderstorm chances continue into Sunday and
Monday as the upper trough to the west gradually makes its way
towards the Plains.

Highs will be cooler in the mid 70s to low 80s on Wednesday before
increasing to the mid 80s to low 90s on Thursday. Temperatures trend
downward through the remainder of the long term, reaching the 60s
and low 70s on Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1129 AM MDT Mon Sep 18 2017

Vfr conditions are expected through the period. Light and variable
to light southerly winds are through the night. After
sunrise...south to southwest winds of 10 to 12 knots are expected
at both sites. There will be some low level wind shear at Kgld
between 06z and 12z.


KS...Red Flag Warning from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ to 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/
     Tuesday for KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for KSZ003-004-015-016-029.

CO...Red Flag Warning from noon to 6 PM MDT Tuesday for COZ252>254.

NE...Red Flag Warning from noon MDT /1 PM CDT/ to 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/
     Tuesday for NEZ079-080.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for NEZ081.



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