Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 171924
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
124 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP H5 ANALYSIS SHOW NW FLOW ACROSS
THE PLAINS WITH A RIDGE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST US. A SHORTWAVETROUGH
IS MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION WITH HIGH CLOUD COVER
STREAMING NORTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.
AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS IN PLACE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS OUR CWA.

A RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR CWA AND ANY WEAK LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH REMAINING WELL SOUTH OF THE CWA. THIS
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BRING INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER AND
INCREASING WINDS. AS THE FLOW SHIFTS TO MORE OF A WESTERLY
DIRECTION ACROSS THE ROCKIES A LEE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DEEPEN
WHICH WILL RESULT IN A TIGHTENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER
OUR CWA AND BREEZY WINDS DURING THE DAY. WE WILL ALSO START TO SE
A SLIGHT MODERATION IN THE AIR MASS OVER THE WESTERN CWA...WHICH
MAY ALLOW AFTERNOON TEMPS SATURDAY TO WARM INTO THE LOWER 70S IN
THE WEST...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS WILL REMAIN SEASONAL WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID-UPPER 60S.

MODELS ARE ADVERTISING TD RECOVERY WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ELEVATED
INVERSION LIMITING MIXING SO WE SHOULD SEE RH VALUES REMAIN WELL
ABOVE RED FLAG CRITERIA. SO DESPITE WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH RED
FLAG CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 212 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

A LARGE AMPLITUDE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
ON MONDAY...BRINGING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY
CONDITIONS TO THE FORECAST AREA.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE
LOW TO MID 70S ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL AS WELL...FALLING TO THE
MID TO UPPER 40S.

THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE MID WEEK AS AN UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
SLIDE THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS. MODEL GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH POSITION OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE HIGH PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY BEFORE BEGINNING TO
DISSIPATE THURSDAY AFTER THE SURFACE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THERE
IS SOME SLIGHT INSTABILITY ALOFT WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND OR LESS
THAN 300 J/KG...SO THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED CHANCE FOR SOME
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
OTHERWISE...THE MAIN PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL BE RAIN SHOWERS AS
MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S FILTERS INTO
THE HIGH PLAINS REGION TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1132 AM MDT FRI OCT 17 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD
AND KMCK. LIGHT WINDS 5-10KT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MOST OF THE
TAF PERIOD AT BOTH TERMINALS AS WEAK SURFACE GRADIENT LINGERS OVER
SW NEBRASKA AND NW KANSAS. LEE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL
DEEPEN SATURDAY MORNING...WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO THE SOUTH AND
INCREASING. GUSTY WINDS AROUND 20KT WILL DEVELOP AT KGLD AROUND
15KT. WINDS WILL REMAIN BELOW 12KT AT KMCK.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR



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