000
FXUS63 KGLD 212033
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
233 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

HIGH BASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ALREADY DEVELOPING ALONG AND
EITHER SIDE OF THE CO/KS BORDER AND AREAL COVERAGE SHOULD SLOWLY
INCREASE AS THE DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.

INVERTED-V SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS THE PRIMARY
THREATS BUT CANT RULE OUT LARGE HAIL AS WELL. WITH STORM MOTIONS
GENERALLY TO THE NORTHEAST UNDER 10 MPH AND BEING PARALLEL TO UPPER
FLOW SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALSO POSSIBLE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD
COME TO AN END BY MIDNIGHT.

LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 60S EXCEPT LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE FAR
EASTERN 1/4 OF THE AREA.

TUESDAY...FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH BRINGING NORTHEAST WINDS
GUSTING 20 TO PERHAPS 25 MPH FOR AREAS ALONG/NORTH OF THE
INTERSTATE. EAST THROUGH SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE AREA COULD GET MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. DESPITE
THE FRESH NORTHEAST WINDS TEMPERATURES NOT ALL THAT MUCH COOLER WITH
FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA...UPPER 90S TO AROUND 103 ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST HALF.

MODEL DEWPOINT FORECASTS HAVE BEEN RATHER UNRELIABLE LATELY AND THIS
WILL LIKELY BE THE CASE TUESDAY. THIS WILL IMPACT POTENTIAL FOR A
POSSIBLY NEEDED HEAT ADVISORY. RIGHT NOW HAVE ADVISORY CRITERIA
BEING MET ACROSS NORTON...GRAHAM...PARTS OF GOVE AND SHERIDAN. PER
COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES WILL HOLD OFF ON A HIGHLITE
FOR NOW BUT WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY IN THE HWOGLD PRODUCT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

A RIDGE WILL BE OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY.  A FRONT WILL BE POSITIONED IN NORTHWEST KANSAS ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FA TUESDAY EVENING AND THEN MOVE SOUTH AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND IT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER
THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN COLORADO THURSDAY.

PLAN TO CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY EVENING
NEAR THE FRONT STALLED OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FA.  CAPE
WILL RANGE FROM 2000 TO 2600J/KG AND SHEAR WILL BE FROM 20 TO 25KTS.
OTHERWISE POPS WILL BE NIL OVER THE FA AS SUBSIDENCE MOVES INTO THE
AREA. SURFACE CONVERGENCE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN
COLORADO WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.  POPS WILL BE NIL ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE
FA. A SURFACE TROUGH IN EASTERN COLORADO WILL FOCUS THUNDERSTORM
INITIATION THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  A SHORTWAVE WILL PROVIDE FORCING AND
THERE WILL BE ADEQUATE MOISTURE WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S.

MAX TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH READINGS IN THE LOWER
90S.  WARMING 850 TEMPERATURES WILL CAUSE MAX TEMPERATURE TO
REBOUND INTO THE UPPER 90S THURSDAY.  MIN TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE
FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE LOWER 70S IN THE EASTERN FA.

IN THE EXTENDED...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)...

A RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES/PLAINS WILL RETROGRADE TO THE DESERT
SOUTHWEST BY SATURDAY.  THE RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH MONDAY. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL BE THE
FOCUS FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY EVENING AND
AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVES IN NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL BRING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO A LARGE PORTION OF THE
FA EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH SOME LOWER
60S IN EASTERN COLORADO AND AROUND 70 IN THE EASTERN FA.  MAX
TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER TO UPPER 90S WITH SOME UPPER
80S MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1055 AM MDT MON JUL 21 2014

KGLD...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 13Z GENERALLY
FROM THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST AT 10KTS OR LESS. AFTER 13Z COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH SHIFTING WINDS TO THE NORTH THEN NORTHEAST AROUND
10KTS...POSSIBLY A BIT HIGHER AND WITH SOME GUSTS. THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED AT/NEAR THE TERMINAL IN THE 20Z-02Z TIME FRAME...PRIMARY
THREATS WILL BE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS WHICH COULD PRODUCE AREAS OF
BLOWING DUST AND MVFR VISIBILITIES/CIGS. NO MENTION IN CURRENT
TAF AT THE MOMENT BUT WILL ADD IF CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

KMCK...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS THROUGH 14Z
GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AT 10KTS OR LESS. AFTER 14Z WINDS
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST THEN NORTH AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10KTS. THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED AT/NAR THE
TERMINAL IN THE 22Z-24Z TIME FRAME...PRIMARY THREATS SIMILAR TO
KGLD WITH STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND POSSIBLY SOME BLOWING DUST AND
REDUCED VISIBILITIES WHICH MAY CREATE MVFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ003-004-015-016-
     029.

CO...NONE.
NE...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR NEZ081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...FS
AVIATION...99