000
FXUS63 KGLD 202359
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
559 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 113 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

500MB LOW LOCATED NEAR THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST THROUGH TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH BROAD SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM. SBCAPE OF UP TO 1000 J/KG WILL
BE IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN FORECAST AREA WHERE CLEARING HAS
OCCURRED. DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BE VERY LOW...ONLY AROUND 10KTS.
AS A RESULT...SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MINIMAL. THE NON-SUPERCELL
TORNADO COMPOSITE INDEX FROM SPC DOES SHOW SOME NONZERO VALUES
ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA...BUT THREAT WILL
LIKELY BE GREATEST FURTHER SOUTH NEAR THE UPPER CIRCULATION CENTER
BUT CANNOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT A BRIEF LANDSPOUT THIS AFTERNOON.

SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WITH WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTH AND INCREASING TO 15-20MPH WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30MPH BEGINNING AROUND SUNRISE MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING
THROUGH LATE MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT AROUND 70 WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PLAINS...THOUGH THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE AND LOCATION OF INITIATION. THERE IS ALSO
THE POTENTIAL FOR NEAR ADVISORY/ADVISORY CRITERIA WINDS BOTH DAYS.
MODELS HAVE COME IN A LITTLE LIGHTER ON SURFACE-H85 LAYER WINDS ON
TUESDAY...AND HAVE ACTUALLY TRENDED QUICKER WITH COLD FRONT/SURFACE
TROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS LOWERS CONFIDENCE IN HIGHER WIND
SPEEDS...ESPECIALLY WED. WILL NEED TO MONITOR...HOWEVER MENTION OF
WINDY CONDITIONS KEPT IN FORECAST.

REGARDING THUNDERSTORMS...DRY LINE SHOULD STILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
TUESDAY WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE
OVERNIGHT TUESDAY AS LLJ AND THETA-E ADVECTION INCREASES AHEAD OF
DEEPENING UPPER LOW. THIS WILL ALSO HELP ADVECT HIGHER TD VALUES
INTO THE WEST...AND AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS BY WED MORNING WE SHOULD
SE A WE DEFINED DRY LINE DEVELOP OVER OUR CWA...POSSIBLY BACKING TO
THE WEST IF SURFACE LOW ENDS UP BEING STRONGER. SEVERE WEATHER
PARAMETERS AND MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO FAVOR WIND/HAIL FOR
THREATS TUESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT WITH BEST CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED
SUPERCELLS OVER OUR EASTERN CWA WEDNESDAY WHERE NAM/GFS BOTH SHOW
DECENT SHEER/INSTABILITY. POSITION OF DRY LINE BOTH DAYS WILL BE
CRITICAL AND TIMING OF COLD FRONT WED IS ALSO A COMPLICATION. I WENT
AHEAD AND RAISE POPS WED AFTERNOON IN THE EAST...OTHERWISE DIDNT
MAKE MAJOR CHANGES.

THURSDAY-SUNDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING SHOULD HELP LIMIT PRECIP CHANCES
THU/FRI WITH MODELS CURRENTLY ADVERTISING SEASONAL TEMPS. BY NEXT
WEEKEND THERE IS INCREASING RUN-RUN SPREAD HOWEVER LATEST ECMWF/GFS
ARE CURRENTLY INDICATING ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE
WESTERN US MOVING INTO THE PLAINS...WHICH COULD BRINGING
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES (AND SEVERE POSSIBILITY) BACK TO OUR CWA. I
KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE MENTION IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 559 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

INITIAL CONCERNS ARE ONGOING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF BOTH TERMINALS. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS MOVING
WESTWARD TOWARD KGLD AND SHOULD ARRIVE SHORTLY BEFORE 01Z. THIS
COULD RESULT IN A SHIFT TO EASTERLY WINDS BUT SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN
LESS THAN 12 KNOTS. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY. RADAR INDICATES A DOWNWARD TREND OF MORE INTENSE
CONVECTION THAT OCCURRED EARLIER FURTHER EAST AND AT THIS TIME
THUNDER APPEARS UNLIKELY AT EITHER TERMINAL. A COLD FRONT WILL
RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEED AND A SHIFT TO A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE IN
THE 15-20 KNOT RANGE WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH
A GRADUAL VEERING TO A MORE NORTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 153 PM MDT SUN APR 20 2014

DEPENDING ON TIMING OF DRY LINE IT STILL LOOKS LIKE
WE COULD SE A BRIEF PERIOD OF RH/WIND WITHIN RFW CRITERIA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THIS IS NOT EXPECTED TO REACH 3HR REQUIREMENT.
BETTER CHANCES FOR RFW CONDITIONS ARE ON WED AND THURSDAY...THOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS ESPECIALLY LOW ON SURFACE PATTERN/DRY LINE POSITION
ON WEDNESDAY. WILL NEED TO FINE TUNE THINGS AS WE GET
CLOSER...BUT WHILE IT SEEMS LIKELY WE WILL ULTIMATELY NEED A FIRE
WEATHER HIGHLIGHT FOR PART OF OUR CWA WED/THU...CONFIDENCE IS TOO
LOW RIGHT NOW.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...DR