Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 160909
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
209 AM MST Tue Jan 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tuesday)
Issued at 1156 AM MST Mon Jan 15 2018

A wind chill advisory remains in effect from this evening through
Tuesday morning.

The short term forecast concern are the cold temperatures that
will lead to the bitterly cold wind chills expected from this
evening through Tuesday morning.

Light snow of one inch or less was received across the region
overnight last night through mid day today as the cold front
pushed through the central high plains region on it`s way to the
southern high plains. Colder and dryer air was following this
front with skies clearing from north to south as it pushed further
south into the region.

With the fresh light snow, clear skies, and light winds expected
overnight, temperatures are expected to bottom out in the single
digits below zero overnight. As they do, the light north to
northwest winds will still be enough to lower wind chills into the
-15 to -24 range needed for an advisory across the entire
 forecast area. Have kept the Wind Chill Advisory intact across
 the whole forecast area as a result.

During the day on Tuesday, temperatures over the far western
sections of the forecast area will be a few degrees warmer than
today due to the surface lee trough beginning to develop along the
front range, while the highs over the far eastern sections will
be a few degrees cooler as a result of the cold air extending
further south into the southern plains.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 209 AM MST Tue Jan 16 2018

Friday: SW flow should be in place ahead of trough deepening over
the Western US. Another shortwave trough moving out of the northern
Rockies is shown by some guidance to kick a cold front south towards
our CWA by Saturday afternoon or Saturday evening. While the actual
passage might not be until later this could have the impact of
shifting the position of the surface low further south and
complicating high temps on Friday. Good WAA ahead of this should
support highs in the 60s, but if this holds up just enough we could
see highs near 70F.

Saturday-Sunday: We are continuing to monitor the potential for a
winter storm over our CWA Saturday night and Sunday as the trough
over the western US eventually swings into the plains and closes
off. Timing still favors the Saturday night-Sunday periods, but
there are differences in the evolution of this that lowers
confidence on potential moderate snow/blowing snow. At this time,
worst case scenario would be advisory level snow amounts north and a
brief window for blowing snow. Position of track and position of
H7/H5 closed center will determine track of elevated deformation
zone (heavier snow), and this is still quite uncertain at this
range. Models may also be overestimating warming on Sunday, as
precip/cloud cover in this colder post front air mass may keep highs
in the lower 30s.

Monday: Upper low should be east of the Central High Plains, with
shortwave ridging building back in the CWA. Current consensus shows
slightly warmer temps to near seasonal normals (40s highs/teens
lows) and dry conditions. At this range and with uncertainty on snow
amounts (which could impact this day as well), I stayed in line with
mean.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1021 PM MST Mon Jan 15 2018

Throughout the remainder of the TAF period, expecting VFR
conditions to prevail at the McCook and Goodland terminals. Winds
will be gusty early on and and then become light shifting to the
south at around 10 knots.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Wind Chill Advisory until 11 AM MST /noon CST/ this morning for
     KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...Wind Chill Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for COZ090>092.

NE...Wind Chill Advisory until 11 AM MST /noon CST/ this morning for
     NEZ079>081.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...EV


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