Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 170508
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1008 PM MST Tue Jan 16 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Wednesday)
Issued at 1125 AM MST Tue Jan 16 2018

Less cold temperatures expected tonight with readings ranging from
around zero across the east to near 10 across the west. For
Wednesday 850mb temperatures warm about 21F to 28F across the
area. The coolest temperatures will be across the east with highs
in the upper 30s to around 40 while across the west readings near
50 are expected. May see a few high clouds from time to time
otherwise it will be clear.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 216 PM MST Tue Jan 16 2018

The forecast focus in the Long Term is on the storm system moving
east of the Rockies during the upcoming weekend. Model solutions
in the long term are in reasonably good agreement through early
Saturday, but begin to diverge through the the weekend and become
out of phase over the western U.S. by late Tuesday with the GFS
being generally more progressive further out than the ECMWF.

The upper ridge flattens out as it slides east through the
remainder of the week ahead of the next upper trough that moves
into the southwest U.S. on Saturday. High temperatures ahead of
the next system will warm well into the 60s on Friday before
dropping back into the 30s and 40s on Sunday and Monday with lows
back in the teens to lower 20s.

The surface low associated with the incoming upper trough
consolidates over the northern Panhandle region as the upper
trough closes off into a low center over the 4-corners region
Saturday night. The surface and upper low centers begin lifting
off to the northeast across the central plains by late Sunday
afternoon. With the more progressive nature of the GFS, it
initiates precip and end precip sooner about 6 hours sooner than
the ECMWF. Have accounted for the disparity of preferred forecast
solutions across the region by spreading the areas of slightly
higher pops out over a wider area over a longer time. Reality will
likely provide a finer resolution as the storm comes into closer
focus. But for now have tended slightly to a broader brushed
solution. With that solution, have come up with between one half
to two and one half inches of snowfall across the forecast area
from south to north between Saturday evening and Sunday evening.
This has remained fairly consistent with the previous forecast
package. Running the local Forecast Builder with consideration to
the MaxTw aloft and the ProbIce present from the blended solution
produced a considerable amount of mixed precipitation and ice over
the forecast area while only a rain/snow mix was produced as the
temperatures transitioned above and below freezing during that
period.

The current blended solution has dry conditions Monday and
Tuesday, but if the GFS pans out, it`s progressive solution could
bring another short wave trough aloft across the region early
Tuesday, which may produce very light precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1007 PM MST Tue Jan 16 2018

Throughout the remainder of the TAF period, VFR conditions are
expected to prevail at both the McCook and Goodland terminals.
Winds will remain between 5-10 knots and then shift to the west by
the end of the TAF period.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...EV



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