Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 140620

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1120 PM MST Fri Jan 13 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 247 PM MST Fri Jan 13 2017

Latest satellite and upper air analysis indicates the closed low
just off the west coast of California near the Mexican border.
Downstream from the closed low the flow as zonal.

Tonight light southeast to east winds will turn to the west.  There
will be some WAA occurring tonight ahead of the upcoming ice storm,
so lows will be a few degrees warmer than last night.

Saturday/Saturday Night: Differing from yesterday is the onset of
the initial precipitation in our areas. Expect freezing rain and
wintry mix to begin early to mid-afternoon for areas south of the
the KS/NE border with the best chances south of a Goodland to Hill
City line. There will be times where the precip turns to all rain
with daytime heating before sunset. As we go through the overnight,
freezing rain and sleet chances spread northward and encompass our
entire CWA. Heaviest icing will be in our Ice Storm Warning counties
which could see 0.15 of icing through the night. For ice totals,
followed WPC guidance pretty closely for the period.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 247 PM MST Fri Jan 13 2017

Sunday through Monday: Freezing rain and sleet continue through the
day Sunday with most areas seeing at least a tenth of an inch of ice
accumulations. Northern areas of the region may see more sleet than
freezing rain if the 12Z Euro 850mb-700mb temps come to fruition
since they stay mostly below freezing. Areas in the Ice Storm
Warning will see another tenth to quarter inch of icing. Sunday
night into Monday is the time period of greatest disagreement. 12Z
GFS operational run takes the main upper level low driving this
system, further south and east, whereas the 12Z Canadian and 12Z
Euro remained very similar to previous runs, bringing the 500mb
closed low through Central Kansas. Chose to go with Euro/CMC
thinking, which means we should see higher snow impacts for our
area. Precipitation will begin to change to all snow Sunday night
into very early Monday morning from west to east, starting in our
Colorado counties. Based on current forecast track of the low,
moderate to heavy snow will setup over the western third of our CWA.
Expect 4-8 inches, but amounts of 10+ inches could still happen for
that area. Snow exits the region Monday night into Monday evening.

Things to note...High confidence exists for ice accumulations,
whereas the forecast for snow amounts is a little more volatile. Any
change in path of the upper low or change in temperature profile can
definitely affect snowfall...CIPS analogs for the 12Z NAM run still
listed the 2006 December ice storm in the top two for 24 and 48

Monday night through Thursday will be dry and warmer as zonal flow
develops behind the ice storm and ahead of the next storm system to
impact the Tri-State Area on Friday.  Current forecast has highs in
the upper 40s to low 50s, which may be too warm if deep snowfall
occurs across the area.  Along those lines the current lows may be
too warm if the snow ends up being deep.

Friday another storm system will move across the Tri-State Area.
This one will be following a similar path as the ice storm, which
could provide another round of moderate to heavy snow for the area.
However this is still a week out so have low confidence the current
path of this next storm system will maintain the correct trajectory
to provide moderate to heavy snow for the Tri-State Area.&&


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1039 PM MST Fri Jan 13 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at MCK through the TAF period with
light winds and lowering ceilings through Saturday afternoon and

GLD will start out VFR with a possibility of -FZRA after 22Z and
lowering ceilings approaching MVFR by 03Z.


KS...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
     morning for KSZ001>003-013-014-027.

     Ice Storm Warning from 2 PM MST /3 PM CST/ Saturday to 11 AM MST
     /noon CST/ Monday for KSZ004-015-016-028-029-041-042.

CO...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
     morning for COZ090>092.

NE...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday afternoon through Monday
     morning for NEZ079>081.



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