


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
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548 FXUS63 KGLD 081718 AFDGLD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Goodland KS 1118 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Storms are possible Tuesday with the main threat of strong to damaging wind gusts. - Remaining mild throughout with highs around the low 90s. && .UPDATE... Issued at 145 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025 Central plains remains under northwest flow around a ridge centered over the Four Corners. Another embedded shortwave trough will move through this afternoon and evening with a chance for showers and thunderstorms. CAMs have been highly variable with significant run-to-run changes, leading to low confidence in how today will evolve. Instability will be up to 1500 j/kg and deep layer shear around 30 kts, not much different than the last few days which saw robust convection develop. So if something can get going not out of the question for another round of severe storms with wind the main hazard, perhaps some isolated hail in initial stages. && .SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Issued at 818 PM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025 The severe weather threat has diminished though some isolated showers and thunderstorms may linger into the late evening and early overnight hours. Thereafter expecting the sky to clear and should winds become light and conditions be allowed to radiate out there is the possibility of some patchy fog, especially in any low lying areas and more so if they have been saturated in rain the past 24 to 48 hours. Dewpoints were around 60 during max temperatures today and using that as a threshold, should any locations fall at or below there is the threat of lower visibilities with patchy fog during the morning hours. Lows tonight are forecast in the mid to upper 50s for the over half of the forecast area encompassing east-central CO, southwest NE and northeast KS. Again, dependence on how quickly and effectively clouds clear with todays shower and thunderstorm activity. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Issued at 1220 PM MDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Generally, weak ridging will persist over the area for the long term forecast Tuesday through the weekend. As a result, there will be the potential for some isolated to scattered storms daily in the afternoon and evening hours through the week and weekend. The best location for these storms would be mainly for our western half of the area, but everywhere could see storms daily. Generally, there is still some uncertainty as to the severity of these storms. At least for Tuesday, we are outlooked in a Marginal Risk for Severe Weather, so a few of these storms could be severe with the main risks being winds greater than 60mph and large hail tomorrow. Beyond tomorrow, the storms look to be primarily sub-severe, but we will continue to monitor for changes. Temperatures will be a bit warmer as we go toward the end of the workweek. Highs will be in the mid to upper 90s across the area, so be sure to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks if you will be spending time outdoors! MSW && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1115 AM MDT Tue Jul 8 2025 VFR conditions prevail at all area airports and will prevail at MCK throughout the forecast period. Conditions at GLD will drop to MVFR late this evening after 9pm MT as a cluster of storms is expected to move through the area. Additionally, wind shear will be 40-50kts at both GLD and MCK late tonight for a few hours as this system moves through the area. VFR conditions will return at GLD by midnight and persist through the end of the forecast period. Wind shifts greater than 30 degrees will also be likely throughout the forecast period at both area airports. MSW && .GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... KS...None. CO...None. NE...None. && $$ UPDATE...024 SHORT TERM...Sipprell LONG TERM...Williams AVIATION...Williams