Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 220500
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1000 PM MST WED JAN 21 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 157 PM MST WED JAN 21 2015

WATER VAPOR AND UPPER AIR ANALYSIS INDICATE A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS.   THE NORTHERN TROUGH HAS BEEN
SLIDING SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE STRONGER ONE OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA.
AHEAD OF THESE TWO TROUGHS...UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE HAS BEEN POOLING
OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  MEANWHILE
SNOWFALL HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AHEAD OF THESE
TROUGHS...WITH SOME LOCATIONS IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO REPORTING HEAVY
SNOWFALL.

TONIGHT DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTH THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
A 500MB TROUGH THAT WILL ACCOMPANY THE NORTHERN TROUGH AS IT
CONTINUES SOUTHWARD.  AS A RESULT THE SKY WILL CLEAR FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH.  THERE MAY BE SOME LIGHT SNOW OVER THE FAR SOUTH DUE TO SOME
LINGERING LIFT AHEAD OF THE 500MB TROUGH.  THIS SHOULD END BY MID
EVENING.

THURSDAY WILL BE CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS AS A 850MB RIDGE MOVES
OVERHEAD.  WITH A CLEAR SKY AND THE SAME AIR MASS IN PLACE AS
TODAY...TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 102 PM MST WED JAN 21 2015

A QUIET LONG TERM PERIOD IS EXPECTED WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SLIM TO NONE AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
DOMINATE EARLY IN THE PERIOD. SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY THEN FLATTEN OVER THE WEAKEN. A LARGE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL THEN WORK ITS WAY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. IT WILL BRING THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE PERIOD WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY IN THE 60S. MODELS BEGIN TO
DIVERGE ON WEDNESDAY WITH GFS BRINGING UP A WEAK SHORTWAVE IN THE
SOUTHERN STREAM AND SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS
IT DRY. WILL GO WITH A PERSISTENCE FORECAST AT THAT TIME RANGE
WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1000 PM MST WED JAN 21 2015

KGLD...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 6KTS AT TAF
ISSUANCE EXPECTED THROUGH 10Z BEFORE BACKING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST
AT SIMILAR SPEEDS FROM 11Z-21Z. FROM 22Z THROUGH 02Z FROM THE
WEST-SOUTHWEST AROUND 10KTS. AFTER 03Z SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
12KTS EXPECTED. BKN CLOUD BASES AROUND 5K FT THROUGH SUNRISE THEN
SKC THROUGH 03Z BEFORE SOME CIRRUS MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

KMCK...VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 7KTS AT TAF
ISSUANCE EXPECTED TO BACK TO WEST AT SIMILAR SPEEDS AROUND 08Z AND
CONTINUE THROUGH 23Z BEFORE BACKING FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST
AROUND 6KTS FROM 00Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN
CLOUD BASES AROUND 5K FT WILL SLOWLY DECREASE BY EARLY MORNING
WITH SKC THROUGH 00Z THEN PERHAPS SOME CIRRUS MOVING IN FROM THE
NORTHWEST.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...99



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