000
FXUS63 KGLD 031745
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1045 AM MST TUE DEC 3 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 300 AM MST TUE DEC 3 2013

TODAY-TONIGHT...UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN MONTANA FORECAST TO
VERY SLOWLY MOVE EAST/SOUTHEAST INTO WYOMING/SOUTHEAST IDAHO THROUGH
THE PERIOD. ARCTIC COLD FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE FORECAST
AREA TIL VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. DESPITE INCREASING
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDINESS THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE NEEDED TO
SATURATE THE COLUMN AND PRODUCE A STEADY LIGHT SNOW NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH THE AREA TIL LATE IN THE DAY WHERE IT REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. BEST CHANCE OF SNOW APPEARS TO BE
ACROSS THE NORTHWEST 1/3 OF THE AREA FROM 00Z-06Z BEFORE SHIFTING
SLIGHTLY FURTHER NORTHWEST AS DRIER MID LEVEL AIR MOVES IN FROM THE
SOUTH. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOW TO MID 50S FAR NORTHWEST THROUGH NORTH
WITH UPPER 50S TO NEAR MID 60S ELSEWHERE. LOWS 10-15 NORTHWEST WITH
MID TEENS TO LOW 20S ELSEWHERE.

WEDNESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PRECIPITATION CHANCES SLOWLY INCREASE
DURING THE DAY AS DEEPER MOISTURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST OVER MUCH OF THE
AREA. MOISTURE AVAILABILITY DECREASES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND AS A RESULT SO DO PRECIPITATION CHANCES. THIS IS
FAIRLY WELL HANDLED IN CURRENT FORECAST SO ONLY SOME MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED. HIGH TEMPERATURES MID TEENS TO LOW 20S NORTHWEST
HALF WITH MID 20S TO NEAR 30 REMAINDER OF AREA. LOWS AROUND ZERO FAR
EASTERN COLORADO WITH SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO ELSEWHERE. WIND CHILL
READINGS WEDNESDAY NIGHT ZERO TO FIVE BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE AREA WITH 10 BELOW TO 15 BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE WESTERN
HALF...COLDEST IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO.

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...SOME DISAGREEMENT REGARDING THE HANDLING
OF UPPER TROUGH AND WHETHER IT MOVES INTO THE AREA PER GFS/ECMWF OR
REMAINS NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE PER NAM/SREF. REGARDLESS OF THE
SOLUTION IT APPEARS THAT BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS ACROSS
THE WEST/SOUTHWEST 1/3 OF THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHEAST. MID LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH. REGARDLESS OF THE SOLUTION LOOKS LIKE RATHER
LOW CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE. HIGHS
10-15 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT LOCATIONS IN WESTERN
KANSAS WITH MID TEENS TO AROUND 20 ELSEWHERE. LOWS GENERALLY AROUND
ZERO TO FIVE ABOVE. COLDEST WIND CHILL READINGS THURSDAY NIGHT
GENERALLY 5 TO 10 BELOW ZERO.

TOTAL SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE SHORT TERM PERIOD LOOK TO
BE IN THE ONE TO THREE INCH RANGE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1141 PM MST MON DEC 2 2013

VERY LITTLE RELIEF FROM THE COLD TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED AS ALL
OF THE MODELS SHOW THE ARCTIC AIR MASS FIRMLY ENTRENCHED THROUGH
THE ENTIRE PERIOD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE
TEENS AND 20S WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS. IT SHOULD BE DRY
EARLY IN THE PERIOD WITH NEARLY ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE BASE OF THE
BROAD TROUGH. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW WOULD APPEAR TO BE IN
THE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY PERIOD AS A VORTICITY LOBE ROTATES
THROUGH THE TROUGH. QPF AMOUNTS ARE RELATIVELY LIGHT BUT WITH THE
DRY ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE SLR WILL BE HIGH AND MIGHT BE ABLE TO
SQUEEZE OUT A FEW INCHES OF FLUFF.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1045 AM MST TUE DEC 3 2013

COMPLICATED WEATHER SCENARIO WILL UNFOLD DURING THE TAF PERIOD. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH BOTH TAF SITES...BRINGING
GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND REDUCED CIGS/VIS. AN EASTERN SURGE OF THE
FRONT IS ALREADY THROUGH KMCK WITH THE STRONGER SURGE NOW
ENTERING NORTHEAST COLORADO. AHEAD OF THE FRONT AT KGLD...SOUTH
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP BUT SHOULD RELAX IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. BEHIND THE INITIAL SURGE...CIGS HAVE DROPPED TO LIFR WITH
SOME IFR VIS ACROSS SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND THINKING THIS WILL
MAKE IT TO KMCK OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS. LOW CIGS/VIS WILL TAKE
LONGER TO MAKE IT TO KGLD...LIKELY HOLDING OFF UNTIL MAIN SURGE OF
THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH AROUND 00Z OR AFTER. LOW CIGS/VIS AND
GUSTY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT MOST
OF THE NIGHT AT BOTH SITES. TOMORROW...HAVE INCLUDED MENTIONS OF
SNOW AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH. SNOW SHOULD NOT
BE HEAVY BY ANY STRETCH...LIKELY RANGING FROM A FEW FLURRIES TO
LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...RRH