Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 190808
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
208 AM MDT Fri May 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 238 PM MDT Thu May 18 2017

Many forecast concerns for this period. Front has stayed south of
our area with stratus along with areas of fog and drizzle. Complex
and evolving upper low remains to our west. First will keep the
fog and drizzle going through the evening due to the strong low
level upslope.

Currently have right rear quadrant of jet over the northeast
portion of the area. One mid level shortwave/strong baroclinic
zone is rotating through the area. Mid level theta-e lapse rates
and elevated cape would say the area will see thunderstorms,
elevated of course, despite being socked in and cool at the
surface. Some thunderstorms have developed to the south where
there has a lot more sunshine has occurred.

So have put thunderstorms along our southeast edge which will be
closest to the front and has the most instability. Will put
isolated embedded thunder over the rest. Right now the best chance
for severe looks to be the far eastern portion of the area and
also where the heaviest rainfall will be. Things stabilize/calm
down during the overnight period. Plenty of moisture and lift
around should keep the precipitation going but it will be much
lighter. Overnight temperatures look to get no cooler than the
upper 30s in the far western portion of our area. It will be
possible that a rain and snow mix will occur later tonight into
early tomorrow.

Upper low moving into the area is elongated and unorganized at
this time. You can see that in the mesoscale forcing with most
organized in the far west. What will be really helping the lift
during the day is a strong left front quadrant affecting most of
the area, mainly east to southeast half to two thirds of the area.
Went a little below the guidance for high temperatures due to the
cloud cover and ongoing precipitation.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 207 AM MDT Fri May 19 2017

At the start of the extended period a progressive pattern with NW
flow remains over the High Plains with a quasi-stationary front and
passing shortwave troughs. Monday night, a strong negatively tilted
upper level trough, along with a cold front associated with it, will
pass through the region. This pattern is expected to produce showers
and thunderstorms through early Tuesday morning and maybe some
lingering showers into Tuesday afternoon.

Tuesday night through Friday, models are showing a dry pattern for
the High Plains. However, the location of the ridge does keep a
slightly northerly upper level component. This could support weak
shortwave trough passages. Overall, mostly dry conditions is
forecast during these time.

Temperatures on Monday will tend to be near normal, near 70s for the
highs with 40s for lows. However, on Tuesday we will be in a post
frontal air mass, after the cold front passage from Monday night,
and highs will reach only in the 60s. The rest of the week we will
slowing warm and reach highs near 80 by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1140 PM MDT Thu May 18 2017

Scattered showers and a few elevated thunderstorms have developed
this evening as another weak shortwave trough rotates around the
main upper low over western Colorado. As a result, cannot rule
out a brief thunderstorm at either KGLD or KMCK overnight, though
instability does gradually weaken. The prevailing conditions at
both terminals will be low ceilings and reduced visibility in
drizzle and occasional light rain through tomorrow night as the
upper low will slowly emerge onto the plains.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...024



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