000
FXUS63 KGLD 221748
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1148 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 946 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVING A BIT QUICKER THAN EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN
CWA...ALTHOUGH REMAINING ON TRACK IN EASTERN ZONES. TEMPERATURES
ARE TRACKING ABOUT 8 DEGREES COOLER THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY AND
PLAN TO SEE HOW 16Z OBSERVATIONS TREND BEFORE MAKING ANY BIG
ADJUSTMENTS TO HIGH TEMP FORECAST. WHILE CONFIDENCE NOT GREAT IN
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...DID ADJUST AFTERNOON FORECAST A BIT TO
REFLECT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY POSITION.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 540 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FOR THE LATEST UPDATE ISSUED...HAVE MADE SOME MINOR TEMPERATURE
ADJUSTMENTS BASED OFF LATEST OBSERVATIONS...OTHERWISE GOING
FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. CLOUD COVER FROM OVERNIGHT PERIOD
CONTINUES TO ERODE AND WITH SUNRISE ON ITS WAY...MOSTLY
SUNNY/SUNNY SKIES WILL BRING IN ANOTHER HOT DAY FOR THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 136 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AS BROAD
H5 RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY TO OUR NORTH WILL PLAY POTENTIAL ROLE FOR PRECIPITATION IN
THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS AS LATEST MODEL RUNS SINK
FRONT DOWN INTO NORTHERN KANSAS. EXPECTING ANY REMAINING OVERNIGHT
CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE WITH SUNRISE...PROVIDING SUNNY CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. 850 MB FRONTAGES ON LATEST GFS/NAM HIGHEST
ALONG OR JUST SOUTH OF KANSAS/NEBRASKA LINE. SHOULD BE ENOUGH MINOR
INSTABILITY TO SET OFF SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED STORMS...BUT STRONG
SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH RIDGE OVERHEAD...WARM/DRY CONDITIONS WILL
LIMIT MOST AREAS THOUGH. LATEST GFS/NAM 925 MB TEMPS SHOW +35C TO
ALMOST +40C OVER THE CWA BY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUT THE AREA
HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY IN THE 95-103F RANGE. HIGHER DEWPT
READINGS WILL WORK INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA VERSUS WESTERN
ZONES. AS A RESULT WILL BE ISSUING A HEAT ADVISORY FOR
DECATUR...SHERIDAN...GOVE...NORTON AND GRAHAM COUNTIES FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL RANGE FROM
65-70F...WITH WARMEST AREAS IN EASTERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 136 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

FOR THE PERIODS WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...THE FORECAST AREA
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MAINLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH BROAD H5
RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE COUNTRY. THERE WILL BE THE
CHANCE FOR LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME
AS CWA WILL SEE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY AND LEE-SIDE TROUGH
AFFECT THE REGION THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT. GOING FOR MAINLY SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS FOR CONVECTION DURING THIS TIME. FRONT ON WEDNESDAY WILL
MAINLY AFFECT NORTHERN ZONES BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE BEFORE FALLING
APART BY 00Z THURSDAY. WESTERN ZONES THURSDAY WILL SEE TRW CHANCES
FIRST BEFORE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST GIVING EASTERN ZONES BETTER CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION. 925 MB TEMPS THRU PERIOD WILL RANGE IN THE +30 TO
+36C WHICH GIVE 90S TO THE AREA...BUT WILL BE CLOUD DEPENDENT FROM
EXPECTED PRECIPITATION.

THE LAST WEEKEND OF JULY WILL BE AN ACTIVE ONE WITH CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS AND COOLING TREND TOWARDS NEXT WEEK. ON THE SYNOPTIC
SCALE FLOW WILL BE NEAR-ZONAL AT MID AND UPPER LEVELS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. THE UPPER HIGH THAT IS OVER THE REGION TODAY
SLOWLY RETROGRADES SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. AT
THE SAME TIME A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DIG INTO THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE CONUS...RESULTING IN NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AS A RIDGE
DEVELOPS OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN REGION.

FRIDAY WILL PROBABLY BE THE LAST DAY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A
CHANCE OF SEEING TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPS. A WEAK COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH
THROUGH THE REGION LATE FRIDAY WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED TO IMPACT TEMPS
MUCH INITIALLY...BUT THE BOUNDARY COULD SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORMS
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING
AS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO INTO
WESTERN KANSAS PROVIDING AMPLE UPWARD MOTION FOR BOTH ISOLATED
STORMS ALONG THE FRONT AND TERRAIN-BASED CONVECTION. SOUNDINGS
QUICKLY STABILIZE OVERNIGHT...SO ANY STORMS THAT CAN POP UP WILL NOT
LAST LONG.

SATURDAY WILL BE NOT AS HOT WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE FOR
STORMS...WITH THE BEST CHANCE IN EASTERN COLORADO AND ADJACENT
COUNTIES IN WESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA. MOST OF THE DAY
WILL BE DRY...BUT AS INSTABILITY INCREASES TO 1500-2000+ J/JG MUCAPE
/UNCAPPED/ WITH STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AROUND 40 KTS
EFFECTIVE SHEAR...STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY. THE 00Z CYCLE GUIDANCE IS A BIT SLOWER ON THE LARGE
SCALE LIFT ARRIVAL COMPARED TO PAST RUNS...BUT IN THIS ENVIRONMENT
WE WILL NOT NEED MUCH TO GET STORMS GOING. THE COLD FRONT FROM LATE
FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE SITTING IN AN EAST-WEST FASHION SOMEWHERE
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS...AND IN THIS VICINITY WOULD BE THE BEST
CHANCE FOR INITIAL DEVELOPMENT. AS LONG AS STORMS DEVELOP THEY ARE
EXPECTED TO LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH A 25-30KT LOW LEVEL
JET AND PLENTY OF ELEVATED CAPE TO KEEP THINGS GOING. STORM MOTIONS
TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 KTS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A
MAJOR FLASH FLOOD THREAT. HIGHS IN THE MID 90S.

SUNDAY EXPECT ANY ONGOING OVERNIGHT PRECIP TO END BY SUNRISE AS
COOLER...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF MORE STRATIFORM RAIN WITH ISOLATED
THUNDER TO MOVE IN LATE IN THE DAY. GFS DETERMINISTIC IS A DRY
OUTLIER IN THIS SCENARIO...BUT GEFS MEMBERS AGREE WELL WITH
ECMWF/GEM FOR A SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS SCENARIO. INSTABILITY IS
NOT EXTREME...SO THIS WILL NOT BE AS INTENSE OF AN EVENT AS
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT COULD SEE CLOUDS KEEPING THINGS SOCKED
IN MUCH OF THE DAY WITH OFF AND ON SHOWERS. HIGHS RELATIVELY
COOLER...ESPECIALLY IF CLOUD COVER IS MORE THAN EXPECTED...IN THE
LOW 90S.

MONDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS CONTINUING
DURING THE DAY. AS WITH SUNDAY THE GFS DETERMINISTIC IS VERY
DRY...BUT GIVEN CLIMO POPS ARE IN THE LOW 20S FELT POPS IN THE MID
20S WAS JUST FINE GIVEN THE INHERENT UNCERTAINTY FOR A DAY 7
FORECAST. TEMPS COOLER...AGAIN ESPECIALLY SO IF CLOUDS STICK AROUND
FOR MOST THE DAY...WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING...BUT OVERALL PROBABILITIES TOO LOW AT THIS POINT IN TIME
TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. SMALL THREAT FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT AFTER 09Z
ACROSS NORTHERN HALF OF AREA. STILL A FAIR BIT OF DISCREPANCY WITH
RESPECT TO EXPECTED MOISTURE PROFILES...SO HAVE LIMITED IMPACT ON
AVIATION CATEGORIES.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR KSZ003-004-015-016-
     029.

CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JRM