000
FXUS63 KGLD 062343
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
443 PM MST THU MAR 6 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MST THU MAR 6 2014

A VERY WARM THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT AND CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. MAIN CONCERNS IN THE SHORT TERM
ARE HOW WARM DO WE REACH TODAY AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES TOMORROW.
ON THE SYNOPTIC SCALE WE HAVE SOME WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING MOVING
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT TO BE
FOLLOWED BY A QUICKLY DEVELOPING SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING...MAKING FOR A BREEZY DAY WITH A CHANCE FOR PRECIP.

TODAY...PATCHY FOG DISSIPATED FAIRLY QUICKLY THIS MORNING ALONG AND
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 THIS MORNING. SKIES ARE CLEAR TO BEGIN...BUT
CLOUDINESS LOOMS IN NORTHERN COLORADO. GUIDANCE HAS BEEN FAIRLY
STEADY FOR HIGHS TODAY...AND BASED ON MODEL SOUNDINGS AND VISIBLE
SATELLITE THINK CLOUD COVER WILL BE THIN ENOUGH TO NOT BE MUCH OF A
PROBLEM FOR SURFACE HEATING. BESIDES...WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM
SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL HAVE A STRONG INFLUENCE ON THE
WARMER TEMPS TODAY. WINDS TODAY WILL BE LIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KTS OUT OF
THE SOUTH. HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S WITH MANY SPOTS LIKELY HITTING
THE 70 DEGREE MARK. AM A LITTLE CONCERNED REGARDING FIRE WEATHER WITH
RH VALUES DIPPING TO THE LOW TEENS...BUT WINDS SHOULD REMAIN TOO
WEAK TO SUPPORT RED FLAG CONDITIONS.

TONIGHT...INCREASING CLOUDINESS AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. WINDS BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...THEN BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TO NORTHERLY BEHIND IT. WHILE
PREVIOUS FORECASTS HAVE HAD SOME SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP INTO
MONDAY MORNING...BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE...STRENGTH OF THE
SYNOPTIC FORCING...AND MODEL SOUNDINGS...FEEL CONFIDENT REMOVING
POPS THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IF PRECIP WERE TO FALL...EVERY
INDICATION SHOWS IT WOULD BE VERY LIGHT. LOW TEMPS WILL GENERALLY BE
ABOVE FREEZING IN THE MID 30S DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

FRIDAY...CLOUDY..COOLER...AND BREEZY WITH A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN.
HAVE SLOWED DOWN AND SLIGHTLY LOWERED PRECIP CHANCES ON FRIDAY PER
LATEST GUIDANCE. ALSO ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG TO AREAS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
AND INTO NEIGHBORING NORTHWEST KANSAS COUNTIES IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS DUE TO ABUNDANT MOISTURE AT THE SURFACE. THROUGHOUT THE DAY
MOISTURE WILL SATURATE THROUGH THE COLUMN AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO PROVIDES AMPLE PVA. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH...POTENTIALLY
EVEN STRONGER ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN NORTHWEST KANSAS.
BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL OCCUR LATER IN THE AFTERNOON. AM A
BIT CONCERNED WITH HOW MUCH THE NAM 4KM CONUS NEST HAS BEEN
DOWNPLAYING THE PRECIPITATION PROCESSES...BUT SINCE ITS PARENT MODEL
SUPPORTS GOOD MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT LIFTING...AM CONSIDERING IT AN
OUTLIER AT THIS POINT. TEMPS ON FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER...IN THE
40S...AND PRECIP TYPE IS EXPECTED TO BE ALL RAIN THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY GOOD THAT WE WILL SEE SOME
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS...BUT AM AFRAID PRECIP MIGHT NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD AS PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. THUS...FEEL COMFORTABLE WITH POPS
GENERALLY IN THE 50 PERCENT RANGE...WITH HIGHER POPS ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO. QPF LOOKS TO BE LIGHT DURING THE DAY...AROUND A TENTH OF
AN INCH THROUGH 00Z AT MOST.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 150 PM MST THU MAR 6 2014

MAIN CONCERN FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY...CONTINUES TO BE THE CHANCE FOR WINTRY PRECIPITATION TOMORROW
NIGHT. THE MAJORITY OF THIS FORECAST DISCUSSION WILL FOCUS
PRIMARILY ON THIS UPCOMING SYSTEM.

THE COLD FRONT WILL BE COMPLETELY THROUGH THE TRI-STATE AREA BY
FRIDAY EVENING. FALLING TEMPERATURES CONTINUE BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGHOUT FRIDAY EVENING. AS TEMPERATURES FALL NEAR TO BELOW
FREEZING...A CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW IS EXPECTED. MODEL SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL COOL AS WELL FROM FRIDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING. THIS ELIMINATES THE CHANCE FOR A WARM
LAYER ALOFT AND THUS MIXED PRECIPITATION TYPES. THEREFORE...THE ONLY
PRECIPITATION TYPES THAT SHOULD OCCUR WITH THIS PARTICULAR SYSTEM
ARE RAIN AND SNOW. AS FOR AMOUNTS...MODELS CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE
BETWEEN HIGHER AND LOWER TOTALS. FOR THIS RUN...SIDED WITH THE
EUROPEAN MODEL FOR POP COVERAGE WITH A SLIGHT NUDGE DOWN ON QPF.
SEVERAL OTHER PIECES OF GUIDANCE SUGGEST A FASTER MOVING SYSTEM
WHICH WOULD LEAD TO LOWER TOTALS. BASED ON THESE PIECES OF
GUIDANCE...DID SPEED UP THE EXIT OF PRECIPITATION. FOR SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS...BELIEVE THAT AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM A TRACE TO AS
HIGH AS 2 INCHES OVER EAST COLORADO. AGAIN...THE TIMING BETWEEN THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE...COLD FRONT AND CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SNOW
WILL BE KEY PLAYERS FOR THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND ANY CHANGES IN
THESE THREE COULD LEAD TO HIGHER OR LOWER AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BOTTOM OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE
BREEZY NORTH WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE ROCKY
MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND...BLOCKING THE TRI-STATE AREA FROM ANY OTHER
DISTURBANCES. THIS RIDGE SHOULD KEEP THE WEATHER DRY SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE RIDGE...WARMING TEMPERATURES
SHOULD MAKE THEIR WAY IN. HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY REMAIN
CONTINGENT ON WHAT SNOW FALLS FRIDAY NIGHT AND HOW FAST CLOUDS
CLEAR. IT APPEARS MOST OF THE CLOUD COVER SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY
THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS SO AMPLE WARMING AND MELTING OF SNOW
IS EXPECTED. FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...LITTLE TO NO CLOUD COVER...NO
SNOW LEFT IN PLACE AND WARMING 850 MB TEMPERATURES SHOULD LEAD TO A
COUPLE WARM DAYS. HIGHS EACH DAY SHOULD BE ABLE TO REACH THE MID 60S
TO LOW 70S. ONE CONCERN FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY IS THAT SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST SOME DRY AIR ALOFT THAT COULD BE MIXED DOWN...LEADING TO LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AT THE SURFACE. HOWEVER...WINDS MAY NOT BE
STRONG ENOUGH FOR FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO BECOME A CONCERN.

AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BREAKS DOWN MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT...THE
NEXT WEATHER DISTURBANCE SHOULD BE RELEASED FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY TUESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
DIFFER ON TIMING AND MOVEMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE. DECIDED TO
MAINTAIN THE STATUS QUO ESTABLISHED BY THE CR INITIALIZATION
PROCEDURE. SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS WILL BE ADVERTISED WITH
COOLING TEMPERATURES. MODELS ARE NOT SUGGESTING A VIGOROUS COLD
OUTBREAK WITH THIS SYSTEM BUT TEMPERATURES ARE STILL EXPECTED TO
FALL BELOW NORMAL LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 424 PM MST THU MAR 6 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD WITH AN OVERCAST HIGH
CLOUD DECK WITH MVFR CONDITIONS TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD
AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES IN ALONG WITH LIGHT RAIN. A FEW
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA...WITH THE FIRST
MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING...ALONG WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND
THE SECOND MOVING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START OFF THE NIGHT AND WILL SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 KTS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
MOVE THROUGH AROUND 09Z TO 11Z. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH
THIS FIRST QUICK MOVING WAVE. THE NEXT WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH
TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
BROUGHT INTO KMCK AROUND 14Z AS WINDS SHIFT TO THE NORTH
NORTHEAST...SO HAVE REDUCED VISIBILITY TO 5SM WITH HAZE AND 1500
FT CEILINGS. GFS GUIDANCE HAD THESE CEILINGS HEIGHTS AND THE NAM
WENT EVEN LOWER WITH THE CEILINGS...WHICH IS OFTEN OVERDONE BY THE
NAM SO WENT WITH THE GFS. KEPT KGLD CEILINGS AT VFR IN THE MID TO
LATE MORNING SINCE GUIDANCE AND SOUNDINGS WERE NOT SUPPORTING
ANYTHING LOWER. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN TO MOVE INTO BOTH
TERMINALS IN THE EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH PRECIPITATION TYPE BEING
RAIN SINCE TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM ENOUGH FOR ALL RAIN. NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY TOMORROW WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 TO 30
KTS. WIND SHOULD START TO DECREASE SHORTLY AFTER THE TAF PERIOD
WITH PRECIPITATION ONGOING THROUGH THE EVENING AFTER THE TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...ALW