Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 261419
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
819 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 819 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Forecast update to remove/cut back fog in previously mentioned
zones. Sunrise has allowed early morning foggy conditions to burn
off for most locales except for far northern/southern areas for
the next hour or so. No other changes at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Today-tonight...once again we find ourselves under quite a bit of
moisture below 700mb through the day and into the evening before
lifting east/northeast away from the area toward sunrise Tuesday
morning. For the shorter term will have to deal with stratus and fog
as abundant boundary layer moisture has moved into the area from the
south. Am expecting this to continue through mid morning before
dissipating. However, looks like it redevelops after midnight.

Looking at precipitation chances, sufficient instability is in place
despite meager mid level moisture. NAM showing small pockets of
moisture moving down from the north supporting at least some
isolated thunderstorms across the eastern 1/2 of the area. Any
activity should be south of the area during the early to mid evening
hours. Will have to watch the our Colorado counties during the
evening as well as front range convection earlier in the period
tries to move east-southeast into the area. After midnight elevated
cin increases rather substantially and should limit any further
development.

High temperatures today in the low 80s. Low temperatures in the mid
50s to low 60s.

Tuesday-Tuesday night...southerly winds quickly increase in the
morning becoming sustained in the 20 to 30 mph range with higher
gusts through the late afternoon. Models continue to advertise an
upper trough axis to move into far eastern Colorado in the 3PM MDT
to 6 PM MDT timeframe with showers and thunderstorms possible. The
trough axis continues east through midnight and should be out of the
area by if not before sunrise. 850mb temperatures from the past 5
days support high temperatures in the low to upper 90s while nearly
all other guidance is several degrees cooler. Wont make any
significant adjustments to forecast at this time and stay the course
with readings around 90/low 90s. Low temperatures in the mid 50s to
around 60 in far eastern Colorado with low to upper 60s elsewhere.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...upper flow shifts to zonal behind
Tuesday nights system. Models bring a weather disturbance into far
eastern Colorado in the 3PM MDT-6PM MDT timeframe supporting current
forecast of thunderstorms. This disturbance also moves east across
the area during the night providing a chance for
showers/thunderstorms. High temperatures in the upper 80s to low
90s. Low temperatures again in the mid 50s to near 60 in far eastern
Colorado with low to mid 60s elsewhere.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 309 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Thursday: Looks to be another day with the potential for strong to
severe storms during the afternoon hours through the overnight.
Model soundings show MUCAPE around 2000-2500 J/kg, DCAPE near 1700
J/kg, and 0-6km bulk shear of 35-50kt across the area. Damaging
winds and hail look to be the biggest threats with any storms that
form. With PWATs around 1.50 inches, will also have to watch for the
possibility of heavy rain accompanying storms during the evening.

Friday-Sunday: Weak cold front pushes through the area late Thursday
or early Friday. Will have a slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms Friday night. Models differ for the rest of the
period. GFS is showing cooler daytime temps and wetter conditions
through Sunday evening than the ECMWF. GFS maintains NW flow aloft
over the area Saturday and Sunday, whereas the ECMWF moves upper
level ridging into the area which creates a decent amount of
subsidence over the CWA. Forecast is essentially a blend of the two
on temps and PoPs. Should be noted that if the GFS verifies, CWA
could see weekend conditions very similar to this past weekend with
cooler temps, cloud cover, and precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 340 AM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

KGLD, lifr conditions expected from taf issuance through about 14z
with winds from the southwest near 7kts. For the rest of the
period winds become east to southeast under 10kts after 18z.
Scattered to possibly broken clouds based near 5k ft expected.
Could see isolated thunderstorms after 18z but coverage and
confidence not high enough to warrant addition to taf forecast at
present time.

KMCK, ifr conditions expected from taf issuance through about 14z
with winds variable 4kts. From 15z-18z winds remain from the west
near 5kts then become east to southeast 10kts or less for the rest
of the period. Similar to KGLD scattered to broken clouds expected
around 4-5k ft from 15z-08z. After 08z stratus and lifr cigs/vis
possible, for now have introduced some light fog and scattered
deck around 200`.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...SME
AVIATION...99


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