Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 230827

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
227 AM MDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday night)
Issued at 227 AM MDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Across the Tri State region this morning...the area is currently
looking at clear skies w/ temperatures ranging in the 40s. Winds are
light and westerly...and do expect the passage of a pre-frontal
trough by 12z this morning to allow for a shift in the winds to
a more northwesterly regime.

Going into the rest of today...the midday timeframe will mark the
return of another round of cooler air into the area. A stronger
front currently lies across the northern Plains/Rockies...which the
latest model runs swing thru the CWA by 18z today. The CWA will see
an increase in high clouds over the area as well...but the big wx
factor for the area will be strong northerly winds that will persist
thru the afternoon hrs after fropa occurs. Tight gradient behind the
front sets up bringing the area 20-30mph w/ gusts reaching up to 40-
45mph in some locales.

Further drying over the area from current conditions will result as
well. RH readings will mainly drop into the 20s percent range...with
some locales over the ENE into the 16-20 percent range. This will
put near critical Fire Wx conditions in place.

Conditions will slacken some towards this evening. Cooler conditions
will into Tuesday before H5/H7 ridging amplifies going into
Wednesday where above normal conditions will ensue as mid level
ridge axis crests over the region.

Looking for daytime highs today and Tuesday to range in the upper
50s to the mid 60s...coolest on Tuesday. For Wednesday...mid 70s.
Overnight lows mainly in the 30s...but low to mid 40s for Wednesday
as warmer air remains.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 249 PM MDT Sun Oct 22 2017

After a cold front pushes through western Kansas early Monday,
another surge of drier air will move into the high plains. Tuesday
night, we will see NW winds 25 knots with gusts 30-35 knots across
the area. Afterward, winds will relax becoming westerly.

Ridging will continue to build over the area giving us mostly
sunny skies through Thursday. Come Thursday evening into Friday,
temperatures will start to drop ahead of a fast moving cold front
from the Pacific Northwest. Expecting strong CAA to accompany this
system with a chance of mixed rain and snow showers moving along
the northwest CO/KS state line. Low temps will drop into the mid
20`s overnight Thursday and Friday, and any counties in the CWA
that have not met hard freeze criteria should finally meet the

Sunday, we will see the area start to warm up ever so slightly.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1134 PM MDT Sun Oct 22 2017

VFR conditions will prevail at GLD and MCK through the TAF period.
Following the passage of a strong prefrontal surface trough at
both GLD and MCK around 08Z, winds will turn more northwest with
LLWS expected as winds just off the surface increase to 35-40kts.
By 14-16Z, those winds will begin mixing to the surface with a
corresponding increase in surface winds. Winds will turn more
north northwesterly through the day with sustained winds 25-30kts
gusting to 35-40kts. Around 00Z, winds will lose their gustiness
at the surface and start to decouple as the overnight inversion
sets up around sunset. This will lead to another round of LLWS at
both locations at less than 1kft AGL.




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