Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 180331
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
931 PM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal daytime temperatures Monday through Saturday,
  returning to near normal levels Sunday.

- 20%-30% chances for showers Friday night-Saturday, 20%-40%
  chance for showers (rain and snow dependent on location)
  Saturday night, rain showers Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 230 PM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Tonight...cloud cover slowly decreases from north to south,
leaving a generally clear sky by sunrise Monday morning. A
1030mb surface high backs into the area from the northeast,
allowing for light and variable winds and pushing rather low
dewpoints into the area. With ideal radiational cooling
conditions, I`ve trended low temperatures down several degrees
into the middle teens to middle 20s (east to west), closer to
the MET/MOS guidance values.

Monday-Monday night...the forecast area remains under weak northwest
flow aloft, in between low pressure across the east coast and cutoff
low just south of the Nevada/Arizona border. Widespread sunshine and
warmer temperatures into the middle 50s to lower 60s are expected
with low temperatures in the upper 20s to middle 30s.

Tuesday-Tuesday night...the upper low just south of the
Nevada/Arizona border Monday night is forecast to drift into Arizona
during the day then become elongated while moving into New Mexico
overnight. Otherwise, we remain under dry northwest flow aloft. High
temperatures will warm into the middle 60s to lower 70s. Low
temperatures fall into the lower to middle 30s.

Wednesday-Wednesday night...at the surface, there is pretty good
agreement on high pressure building into the area from the
northeast. It, along with low pressure along the front range of the
rockies will produce some breezy easterly winds during the day. At
500mb, the upper low/trough to our southwest in the morning is
forecast to move into southwest Kansas/Texas panhandle during the
day then into north central Texas/central Oklahoma during the night.
There is a 20% chance of rain showers in the afternoon across
Wichita county. High temperatures have cooled a few degrees compared
to the previous shift with readings now in the lower to middle 60s.
This may remain optimistic as NAM/GFS 850mb temperatures only
support middle 50s to lower 60s, several degrees lower than
currently advertised. Given the trend is in the right direction,
wont make any changes at this time. Low temperatures fall into the
lower to middle 30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 142 PM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024

At the start of the long term period, the area is under
northwesterly flow aloft as the center of low pressure formerly over
the Desert Southwest/Four Corners region has progressed eastward and
is now situated in vicinity of the TX/OK Panhandles. A cold front is
expected to move through Thursday, and winds are currently forecast
to gust into the 20-25 mph range with min RH west of Hwy 27
falling into the teens to low 20s, possibly creating some fire
weather concern. Moisture will be drawn up through TX/OK into
parts of KS - will need to monitor whether or not our area will
see any precipitation with this or simply an increase in cloud
cover. 850mb temperatures Thursday generally in the 12-18C range
give above normal temperatures, in the middle 60s to low 70s.
Low temperatures are forecast in the 30s.

Friday, an upper level ridge moving over the western CONUS will have
the area under west-northwest flow aloft. During the latter part of
the weekend, flow aloft backs towards the southwest ahead of an
upper level trough moving through the western CONUS. As mentioned in
previous discussions, this system will bring a potentially more
active pattern during this period, but there is uncertainty in
impacts at this range. For now, the forecast includes a few off and
on chances for precipitation (generally to around 20-30%), mainly in
the form of rain, but cooler air working in may see a transition to
or mix with snow. Temperatures also have a greater uncertainty,
currently expecting generally near to above normal temperatures
Friday and Saturday, with mid-upper 50s and 60s for highs and 30s
for lows, before trending cooler and closer to normal again for
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 930 PM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Both terminals will see VFR conditions through the forecast
period. Winds for both sites, light/variable through about
17z-18z Monday then west-northwest 5-10kts. By 22z-23z,
becoming southwest around 10kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...JN


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