Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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392
FXUS63 KGLD 101613
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
913 AM MST Sun Dec 10 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 913 AM MST Sun Dec 10 2017

Forecast overall in great shape...update issued though to catch
temp trend since sunrise. Temps on the rise under full sunshine
w/ little to no change in area Td`s. This is giving many locales
RH values of 20 percent or lower. Winds look to remain below Red
Flag criteria at this time and will have to monitor...but can`t
rule out isolated spots hitting before winds subside this
afternoon.

With temps forecasted to be in the lower to mid 60s today...have
included record high temp info below in the Climate section. Some
spots have upper 60s for highs and may come close by a few
degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 245 AM MST Sun Dec 10 2017

Today-tonight...widespread sunshine today with perhaps a few
mid and/or high clouds moving down from the north tonight. 850mb
temperatures warm about 3F (west) to 9F (east) supporting highs in
60 to 65 degree range. Low temperatures in the low 20s to low 30s.
Winds today from the northwest around 15 mph with some higher gusts.
For tonight a west wind around 10 mph through midnight then
increasing slightly after midnight ahead of approaching cold front.

Monday-Monday night...some cooler air backs into the area during the
day with 850mb temperatures dropping about 7F (west) to 13F (east).
This would support highs in the low to mid 50s which is currently
advertised in the forecast. Low temperatures in the upper teens to
low 20s. Northwest winds increase into the 20 to 25 mph range with
higher gusts by late morning and continue through mid to late
afternoon...mainly along and east of the CO/KS border.

Tuesday-Tuesday night...should see a few more mid level clouds
compared to past few days with daytime winds from the northwest
around 10 mph. 850mb temperatures warm about 5F to 7F across the
area supporting highs in the mid 50s to around 60 which is currently
advertised in the forecast. Low temperatures above normal with low
20s to around 30.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 224 AM MST Sun Dec 10 2017

Through the next week several shortwaves will move through the
central plains. The first Wednesday night and the second one
Saturday morning. These will bring in brief cooler air, dropping
our max daily temps for Thursday and Saturday near 50. While
Friday and Sunday we will have slight warming with mid to upper
50s. Lows will be in the 20`s for the extended period.

Even with the shortwave passages, winds aren`t expected to go over
20 mph through the extended period. No pops in the extended
forecast. Expecting an uneventful weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 245 AM MST Sun Dec 10 2017

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions through the period. Northwest
winds gusting around 20kts expected at both terminals today
decreasing by 23z. For tonight am expecting a west wind around
10kts through midnight then increasing slightly and veering to the
west-northwest at speeds of 12-15kts.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 245 AM MST Sun Dec 10 2017

For today near critical fire weather conditions will exist across
the entire Tri-State area with relative humidity values below
15 percent. Northwest winds around 15 mph with some higher gusts
are also expected.

On Monday critical and near critical fire weather conditions are
expected generally along and west of a line from near Benkelman
Nebraska to Goodland and Russell Springs Kansas. The best chance
for critical fire weather conditions to be met will be from near
Yuma and Burlington Colorado to Tribune Kansas.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 913 AM MST Sun Dec 10 2017

Record high temperatures for today...December 10th:

Goodland KS    71/1975
McCook NE      67/1957
Burlington CO  76/1939
Hill City KS   70/1990
Colby KS       74/1996
Tribune KS     72/1996
Yuma CO        68/1996

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...EV
AVIATION...99
FIRE WEATHER...99
CLIMATE...JN



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