Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 171730

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1130 AM MDT Tue Oct 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Through Tonight: A very dry/stable airmass (PWAT ~0.25" per 12Z
DDC sounding) will prevail over the region. A small amplitude
wave located upstream in Wyoming at 16Z (per WV imagery and
mesoanalysis data) will track ESE through Nebraska this
afternoon/evening and into MO tonight. Variable winds will become
S/SW at ~10 knots in western KS late this aft/eve as the
aforementioned shortwave progresses into western NE and a lee
surface trough develops over eastern CO. With the above in mind,
expect clear skies with 0 chance for precipitation.

Wednesday: A robust shortwave moving onshore the PAC NW this
afternoon will track rapidly east across the Canadian Rockies into
Saskatchewan/Manitoba tonight and Ontario during the day Wed.
Subsidence (in the wake of the shortwave progressing east across
southern Canada) will result in surface pressure rises over the
northern Rockies/Upper Midwest Wednesday morning, driving a weak
back-door cold front southward through western NE into western KS
by early afternoon, with winds shifting to the north and
increasing to 12-17 knots. With the above in mind, expect clear
skies and 0 chance for precipitation. Weak SFC-H85 CAA should
result in cooler temperatures north of I-70 Wed afternoon,
particularly in southwest NE and northeast CO where highs are
unlikely to exceed the lower 70s. Expect highs ranging from the
mid 70s (I-70 west of Colby) to upper 70s/80F (south of I-70/east
of Colby).

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 117 AM MDT Tue Oct 17 2017

Wednesday through Friday the upper level ridge will slide east
across the southern CONUS. High temperatures will be fairly
consistent, while lows will gradually warm during this time due
to the increasing dew points.

The next weather change will occur on Saturday as a cold front
moves through accompanied by an upper level long wave trough. Am
not expecting any rainfall with this frontal passage due to the
dry environment. Behind the cold front northerly winds will
increase and become gusty.

Models disagree as to how the second trough early next week will
develop as it moves onto the plains. Most model data has the
trough being an open wave. One model has the trough developing
into a closed low east of the forecast area. Am more confident
with the open wave solution. This solution would also support
bringing a cold front through. As a result the forecasted highs
for Monday may be too warm.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1130 AM MDT Tue Oct 17 2017

VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period in association
with a very dry airmass in place over the region. Light/variable
winds early this afternoon will become S/SW ~10 knots by mid/late
afternoon, then weaken to ~5 knots tonight. Winds will shift to
the north and increase to ~15 knots by the end of the TAF period
(15-18Z Wed) as a weak back door cold front progresses southward
through western NE into northwest KS.




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