Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 290438
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1038 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1254 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT AND THE WIND SPEEDS DURING THE
DAY ON SUNDAY BEHIND THE FRONT. DRY AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
PRODUCE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SUNDAY SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

THE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE UPPER TROUGH TOPS THE RIDGE OVER THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES AND MOVES ONTO THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS IS IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
BETWEEN 06-12Z OVERNIGHT AND ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES THROUGH THE
DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW
TOWARDS THE GREAT LAKES AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION.
WINDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA WILL TURN FROM THE SOUTH TO THE
NORTHWEST AND BECOME GUSTY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE STRONGEST
WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

DRY AND GRADUALLY WARMING WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
OVER THE GREAT BASIN MOVES ONTO THE PLAINS.  NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY.  SEE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE PLAINS BEHIND THE RIDGE...WITH MOST OF THE ENERGY WELL
NORTH OF THE AREA. IN ADDITION A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA WITH THE UPPER LEVEL FEATURE DURING THE AFTERNOON.  CHANCES FOR
RAINFALL WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON AND THROUGH THE NIGHT AS BETTER MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE
AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST.

THURSDAY ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA ACCOMPANIED
BY ANOTHER STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH.  THIS TROUGH WILL BE FURTHER
SOUTH TOWARD THE CENTRAL PLAINS THAN THE LAST ONE...WHICH WOULD MEAN
BETTER CHANCES FOR THE AREA.  HOWEVER MODELS DIFFER ON THE TIMING OF
THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND MOISTURE BY SIX TO TWELVE HOURS...RANGING
FROM THURSDAY EVENING TO FRIDAY MORNING.  IN GENERAL THE BEST CHANCE
FOR RAINFALL LOOKS TO BE OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA THURSDAY
NIGHT.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY DRY WEATHER RETURNS AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
MOVES OVER THE PLAINS.  MEANWHILE THE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FRIDAY AFTER THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO WARM SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1034 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE SHIFTING AND INCREASING
DURING THE FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS IN THE PERIOD AS A PREFRONTAL
TROUGH AND THEN A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. NEAR 08Z THE
FRONT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH WITH AN INCREASE IN SUSTAINED SPEEDS
INTO THE 15 TO 20 KNOT RANGE WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS. AFTER THE
SUN COMES UP AND MIXING OCCURS THE SUSTAINED WINDS AND GUSTS WILL
INCREASE ABOUT 5 TO 10 KNOTS AND CONTINUE UNTIL MID AFTERNOON.

BY THAT TIME THE WINDS WILL STILL BE GUSTY BUT DECREASING. BY LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING THE WINDS WILL LOSE THEIR
GUSTINESS AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 256 PM MDT SAT MAR 28 2015

AS A RESULT OF THE GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
THAT WILL DECREASE TO AROUND 20 PERCENT FORM MID DAY THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER DURING THAT TIME
OF SUNDAY. BURNING OUTDOORS IS DISCOURAGED AND COULD QUICKLY
BECOME OUT OF CONTROL DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS.

HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON EAST
OF THE COLORADO BORDER WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO 20
PERCENT OR LESS AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GUST TO 30 MPH.  THE STRONG
WINDS WILL MOVE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...SO LOCATIONS EAST OF
HIGHWAY 83 WILL HAVE THE BREEZY WINDS THE LONGEST.  BY LATE
AFTERNOON THE WIND GUSTS SHOULD DIMINISH.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...BULLER
FIRE WEATHER...LOCKHART/JTL



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