Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 271840
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1240 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

LOCAL AREA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A STRONG SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. QVECTORS SUGGEST
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL EXTEND FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST PARTICULARLY IN NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RATHER ANEMIC AT 20KTS OR LESS.
WHILE A SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY WIND AND
PERHAPS A FEW HAIL REPORTS...ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SUB SEVERE FOR
THE MOST PART. MODEL QPF IS WIDESPREAD BUT MUCH LOWER COMPARED TO
SUNDAY AND 0-6KM MEAN WINDS OF 20-25KTS SUGGESTS STORMS WILL BE
MOVING...SO NOT ANTICIPATING A HEAVY RAIN THREAT EITHER.

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH
OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING WHICH COULD BE BREEZY/WINDY FOR AN HOUR TWO IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH UP TO 40KTS INDICATED AT 15Z
TUESDAY MORNING IN THE 0.5KM WINDS. SURFACE DEW POINTS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TUESDAY FEELING MUCH MORE LIKE WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO CLIMB INTO THE 90S MOST
LOCATIONS. CONVECTION WILL INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE
RELATIVELY COOL POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE
NEGLIGIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...THE UPPER HIGH OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS RETROGRADES TOWARDS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT RETURNS TO THE AREA. MODELS INDICATE A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE FRONT RANGE ON THURSDAY THAT
APPEARS TO PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND...BRINGING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO
THE AREA AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ALSO MOVE OVER THE REGION.
LEFT SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

HIGHS LOOK TO BE IN THE UPPER 80S ON THURSDAY...INCREASING GRADUALLY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 90S EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOW 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT MCK AND GLD WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION BETWEEN 22Z-06Z. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER
THROUGH 12Z...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PREVAILING CONDITIONS.

HAVE INCLUDED WIND SHEAR FOR MCK AS MODELS INDICATE THERE COULD BE
SOME STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR
THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE NIGHT TIME INVERSION SETS UP
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS OUTFLOW.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...LOCKHART



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