Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 232353

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
453 PM MST Thu Feb 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 208 PM MST Thu Feb 23 2017

Upper level system will move out of the northern Rockies today and
across the central plains on Friday, providing synoptic scale
support for light precipitation. Accompanying surface low will
move across southwest Kansas today and be near Kansas City by
06z. Brisk north winds will advect colder temperatures into the
area, allowing any mixed or liquid precipitation early this
evening to change to all snow by 06z tonight, continuing through
Friday morning before gradually tapering off Friday afternoon. An
inch or two will be possible in southwest Nebraska, with the
remainder of the area expected to see less than an inch. Lows
tonight will drop into the teens and 20s and highs on Friday will
struggle to break the freezing mark. Wind chills will be in the
single digits and teens tonight and through the day Friday.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 208 PM MST Thu Feb 23 2017

The long term is largely dry with a couple of slight chances for
precipitation. Temperatures vary, warming through Monday before
cooling some as a system pushes through during the middle of next

Precipitation is anticipated to taper off by Friday afternoon, prior
to the start of the period. The low pressure system impacting the
region continues east towards the Great Lakes Friday night. Upper
flow turns zonal over the weekend and subsidence sets in, leading to
dry conditions through at least Sunday.

An upper disturbance quickly pushes across the High Plains Sunday
night, but the area looks to remain dry except for a slight chance
of some light snow for the extreme southeastern portion of the
forecast area. This disturbance progresses east, and flow aloft
becomes southwesterly behind as a trough moves onto the western

Some low PoPs return during the Monday night to Tuesday night time
frame with an upper level system traversing the central Plains. Will
continue to monitor the track of this system in the coming days.

Temperatures generally warm at the start of the period, with highs
going from the mid 30s to mid 40s on Saturday to the mid 40s to mid
50s on Monday. The region then sees a drop Tuesday and Wednesday as
cooler air moves in. Low temperatures remain in the teens and 20s,
except for Monday night when a few locations could stay in the 30s.
The majority of the forecast area will see wind chills in the single
digits Friday night.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 442 PM MST Thu Feb 23 2017

For Kgld...mvfr conditions should become ifr around 03z and
continue through the rest of the night. After a brief period of
barely mvfr conditions from 12z to 15z, ifr conditions will
redevelop at 15z and continue until early afternoon. At 20z those
conditions will return to mvfr and continue through the end of
the period. Through the period north winds will be 15 to 20 knots
with gusts to near 30 knots.

For Kmck...mvfr conditions will become ifr within the first hour
of the period. Those ifr conditions will return to mvfr around
04z. At 07z those conditions will become ifr and will continue
until the very end of the period. Until 13z north winds will be 12
to 16 knots with gusts to 24 knots. From 13z until the end of the
period, the winds will be 16 to 20 knots with gusts into the 27 to
31 knot range.




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