Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 270720
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1220 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1154 AM MST MON JAN 26 2015

18Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED CWA ON EASTERN PERIPHERY OF 582
DM RIDGE OVER WESTERN COLORADO. TEMPERATURES HAVE RAPIDLY CLIMBED
INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS.

MAIN FORECAST CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH WARMER THINGS GET TOMORROW
AND IF COMBINATION OF WARMTH/WIND WILL CREATE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA.

TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL WARM ABOUT 5C BY 12Z TOMORROW AND WITH
RIDGE AXIS LIKELY KEEPING ANY MEANINGFUL CIRRUS TO THE WEST EXPECT
A STRONG WARM UP TOMORROW WITH TEMPS EASILY REACHING THE MID 70S
IN MANY LOCATIONS. MODELS SEEM TO REALLY HOLD ON TO
INVERSION...BUT WITH FULL SUN AND SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AM LEANING
TOWARDS A WARMER SOLUTION THAN CURRENT DATA SUGGESTS. A FEW LOW
80S READINGS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AT THIS POINT WITH SEVERAL
RECORDS IN JEOPARDY. A DEEPLY MIXED AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT WINDS IN
THE 10-20 MPH RANGE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES AND WITH A DRIER
VERTICAL PROFILE EXPECTED...DEWPOINTS FALLING INTO THE LOWER 20S
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. LOTS OF VARIANCE WITH RESPECT TO MOISTURE
SOLUTIONS...BUT OVERALL PATTERN IS ONE THAT WILL SUPPORT MIN RH
VALUES FALLING TO AROUND 15 PERCENT FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
DAY. WINDS WILL BE RIGHT AT CRITICAL VALUES AND CONSIDERED A FIRE
WX WATCH. HOWEVER...WITH WINDS RIGHT AT THRESHOLDS AND TENDENCY TO
OVER FORECAST WIND SPEEDS IN THESE SITUATION DO NOT THINK
CONFIDENCE WARRANTS A WATCH ISSUANCE AT THIS POINT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 1220 AM MST TUE JAN 27 2015

FRIDAY...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS MOVES IN DURING THE DAY AND
REMAINS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS DURING THE NIGHT AHEAD
OF A LOW PRESSURE CENTER AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH CENTERED OVER
SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION
REMAINS PRIMARILY ACROSS GREELEY AND WICHITA COUNTIES DURING THE
DAY WITH INCREASING CHANCES SPREADING NORTH DURING THE NIGHT.
PRECIP EXPECTED TO START AS LIGHT RAIN IN THE EVENING THEN CHANGE
OVER TO SNOW BY OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN
THE MID 40S WITH LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S. WINDS DURING THE
TIME OF EXPECTED SNOW GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH AROUND 10 MPH.

SATURDAY...PLENTY OF CLOUDINESS TO CONTINUE PER 850-500MB RH DURING
THE DAY AS SOME OF THE ENERGY FROM FRIDAYS UPPER LOW LIFT NORTHEAST
ACROSS OUR PART OF THE AREA.  DURING THE NIGHT PERHAPS A BIT OF
DECREASING CLOUDINESS BUT ECMWF/GFS DISAGREE ON HOW FAST UPPER
TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST BRINGING PERHAPS SOME DRIER AIR
BEHIND IT. WINDS EXPECTED TO SHIFT AROUND TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE
END OF THE DAY AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. COLDER AIR ARRIVES
OVERNIGHT AS WINDS BECOME NORTHERLY. HIGH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN
THE MID 30S WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOW 20S. GOOD
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY WITH DECREASING
CHANCES (PERHAPS) FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST IF THE DRIER AIR MOVES
IN.

SUNDAY...HIGHER CONFIDENCE (FOR THIS MODEL CYCLE) THAT CLOUDS WILL
DECREASE LEAVING A MOSTLY TO PARTLY SUNNY SKY DURING THE DAY AND
PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL WITH MID 30S (EAST) TO AROUND 40
(WEST). OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOW TEENS (EAST) TO NEAR 20 (WEST).

MONDAY...SOME AGREEMENT THAT THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE UNDER FAST
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AND WITH THAT PERHAPS MORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
(PER MODEL RH FORECASTS) THEN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED. SHOULD BE DRY
WITH HIGHS LOW TO MID 30S EAST AND LOW TO MID 40S GENERALLY ALONG
AND WEST OF THE CO/KS BORDER. LOWS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO MID 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1023 PM MST MON JAN 26 2015

WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS
REGION...VFR CONDITIONS WITH CLEAR SKIES TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
AND THROUGH TOMORROW AT GLD AND MCK. LIGHT WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL PERSIST AT MCK. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS AT GLD WILL BECOME
GUSTY BETWEEN 18Z-00Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL BECOME LIGHT
AGAIN BY 00Z. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH LOCATIONS
AFTER 00Z AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT RIDES UP THE BACK SIDE OF THE
RIDGE AND APPROACHES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...LOCKHART


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