Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 270313
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
913 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 905 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

DUE TO ENVIRONMENT BEING MORE STABLE THAN ANTICIPATED...HAVE
LOWERED RAINFALL CHANCES OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO FOR THE
EVENING. HAVE NOTICED SOME STORMS ARE FINALLY ABLE TO MOVE INTO
EAST CENTRAL COLORADO AS ELEVATED CAPE HAS BEGUN TO DEVELOP AND
THE 500MB SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES IN. MODELS KEEP THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST PART OF THE AREA TONIGHT WHICH IS
WHERE THE ELEVATED CAPE WILL BE. STORM MOTION WILL BE AROUND 10
MPH SO IF STORMS DEVELOP THEY WILL BE MOVING VERY SLOW TO THE
SOUTHEAST WHICH MAY LEAD TO HEAVY RAINFALL. MOVED CHANCES FOR RAIN
FURTHER SOUTH...MAINLY ALONG/SOUTH OF HWY 40 WHERE LIFT AND
INSTABILITY ARE BEST. AM STILL THINKING THE MAJORITY OF THE STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE SOUTH OF GREELEY/WICHITA COUNTIES WHERE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY IS STRONGEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 647 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

ALLOWED HEAT ADVISORY TO EXPIRE FOR NORTON/GRAHAM COUNTIES.

AS FAR AS PRECIP. FORECAST GOES...AM HAVING MORE CONFIDENCE THE
BETTER STORM COVERAGE WILL BE JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA WHERE STORMS
ARE CURRENTLY FIRING. OVERNIGHT ELEVATED CAPE DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES IN. LIMITING
FACTOR WILL BE THE STRENGTH OF THE WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING
OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AT THAT TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO
ANALYZE LATEST MODEL DATA BEFORE ALTERING FORECAST.



&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 131 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

LATEST WV IMAGE AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW BROAD RIDGE STILL
IN PLACE FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND
INTO THE SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO ROUND THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THIS RIDGE
INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. A CLOSED LOW IS CENTERED
OVER SOUTHERN MANITOBA CANADA WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OUT AHEAD OF
THIS ENTERING THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE IS IN PLACE OVER OUR CWA WITH SEVERAL WEAK CONVERGENT AREAS
ACROSS OUR SOUTH...AND A COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHWEST KANSAS FROM
COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA.

RAP ANALYSIS INDICATES MODERATE SB/MIXED LAYER CAPE VALUES AHEAD OF
MEAN SURFACE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS MOST OF OUR CWA. SHEER IS NOT
PARTICULARLY IMPRESSIVE...HOWEVER WITH SOUNDINGS SHOWING INVERTED V
TYPE SOUNDINGS AND DCAPE 1000 J/KG OR HIGHER MICROBURST POTENTIAL IS
THERE FOR ANY THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE
SOUTHERN PART OF OUR CWA FOR THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE...MAINLY ALONG
AND AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. WEAK FORCING ROTATING FROM THE NORTH
LATER THIS EVENING MAY ALSO SUPPORT ADDITIONAL POST FRONTAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. POP ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO REFLECT
THESE TRENDS THROUGH TONIGHT. SUBSIDENT AIR MASS APPEARS TO BE IN
PLACE OVER MOST OF THE CWA SUNDAY...THOUGH BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
UPSLOPE COMBINED WITH OVERRUNNING ALONG STALLED FRONTAL ZONE IN
COLORADO MAY ALLOW FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT INTO THE SW
PART OF THE CWA IN THE AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES SATURDAY SHOULD BE COOLER...HOWEVER THERE IS QUITE A
BIT OF SPREAD DUE TO NAM/SREF LINGERING PRECIP MOST OF THE DAY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. I AM NOT FAVORING THIS SOLUTION AS BETTER
SUPPORT FOR SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM (AND ANY LOW CLOUD COVER) WOULD BE
FURTHER WEST AND SOUTHWEST. IF THE NAM/SREF WERE CORRECT THEN HIGHS
IN THE LOW 80S FOR WESTERN PARTS OF THE CWA. BASED ON THE FAVORED
WARMER SOLUTION WE SHOULD SEE HIGHS WARM TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES IN
THE UPPER 80S FOR A LOT OF THE CWA SUNDAY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...FORECAST CONCERNS FOR THE PERIOD
INCLUDE COOLING TEMPERATURES AND PRECIPITATION CHANCES...MAINLY IN
THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE CWA. NEAR TERM MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH LARGE SCALE PATTERN AND ALL SUGGEST A MUCH COOLER
START TO THE WEEK THAN THE PAST WEEK.

CWA WILL FIND ITSELF ON THE NORTHEAST FRINGE OF PERSISTENT H5 RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES. DESPITE THE RIDGE POSITION...PERIODS OF ASCENT
ACROSS WILL PERIODICALLY DEVELOP AS NUMEROUS SMALL SCALE
DISTURBANCES AND PERSISTENT WEAK WAA REMAIN ACROSS WESTERN HALF OF
THE CWA. ALTHOUGH FORCING IS WEAK...DO NOT SEE ANY REASON WHY MID
LEVELS WILL DRY OUT DURING THE PERIOD AND WITH ELEVATED CAPE PRESENT
THROUGHOUT THINK WE WILL SEE SEVERAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND WEAK
THUNDERSTORMS. TRIED TO ADD SOME DIURNAL COMPONENT TO WX TIMING AS
THINK BEST CHANCES WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS
MODEST LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS TO AID IN MOISTURE ADVECTION/FORCED
ASCENT. GIVEN THE POSITION OF GREATER INSTABILITY AND OVERALL
PATTERN AM NOT EXPECTING LARGE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR THE PERIOD.
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE COMBINED WITH PERSISTENT CLOUD COVER WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD...ABOUT 10 TO
20 DEGREES COOLER THAN PAST FEW DAYS.

IN THE EXTENDED(TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY)...SIMILAR PATTERN TO
CONTINUE ACROSS TRI STATE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS H5
RIDGE GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES IN RESPONSE TO TROUGHING DEVELOPING ACROSS
THE SOUTHEAST AND MIDWEST. GEFS AND OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT A HIGH PRECIP POTENTIAL ON TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY AS
MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY SHOULD ALREADY BE IN PLACE WITH MAIN CONCERN BEING
HOW FAR NORTH/EAST PRECIP SHIELD WILL GO. STILL THINK BEST CHANCE
FOR RAIN WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN CWA SO MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES
HERE. OTHERWISE...COOLER TEMPERATURES AS A FEW CHANCES FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 540 PM MDT SAT JUL 26 2014

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. THIS EVENING STORMS MAY
MOVE NEAR THE KGLD SITE. AM NOT TOO OPTIMISTIC SINCE STORMS SHOULD
REMAIN SOUTH OF THE SITE BUT DID KEEP THE MENTION IN SINCE IT WAS
IN THE PREVIOUS TAF. IN ADDITION ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY
GENERATE FURTHER CONVECTION WHICH IS VERY DIFFICULT TO PREDICT
BEFORE HAND SO A MENTION OF VCTS SEEMS FINE. OTHERWISE AS THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH OVERNIGHT CEILINGS WILL FALL TO NEAR MVFR FOR
A FEW HOURS AT KGLD.

FOR KMCK LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE SITE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...JTL





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