Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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115
FXUS63 KGLD 301734
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1134 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 245 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

THE UPPER LOW WILL BE OVER NORTHWEST/NORTHCENTRAL KANSAS TODAY AND
THEN MOVE INTO NORTHEAST KANSAS TONIGHT. THE LOW WILL MOVE INTO
EASTERN IOWA SUNDAY WITH A SHORTWAVE RIDGE EAST OF THE ROCKIES.
ANOTHER BROAD TROUGH WILL EXIST OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. THIS
TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY. AS IT MOVES FURTHER
EAST MONDAY NIGHT, FLOW WILL BECOME NORTHERLY OVER THE PLAINS.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER THE PLAINS TODAY THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

POPS WILL BE LOWER TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW
SHIFTS EAST OUT OF THE AREA. PLAN TO KEEP CHANCE POPS GOING TODAY
FOR RAIN AND SNOW WITH SNOW MAINLY OVER EASTERN COLORADO DURING THE
MORNING AND NIGHTTIME. RAIN AND SNOW WILL EXTEND EASTWARD INTO
NORTHWEST KANSAS DURING THE NIGHTTIME THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. POPS
DECREASE TO SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE SUNDAY WITH MAINLY WRAPAROUND
PRECIPITATION. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT.  A SHORTWAVE COMING
THROUGH THE FLOW TO THE SOUTH WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT
SHOWERS MONDAY.  DRY CONDITIONS WILL RETURN MONDAY NIGHT WITH
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA.

MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 40 IN EASTERN COLORADO
TO THE UPPER 40S IN THE EASTERN FA. MID 40S TO MID 50S ARE EXPECTED
SUNDAY.  TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO 60 MONDAY.
MIN TEMPERATURES SHOULD RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S TO THE UPPER 30S.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

A RELATIVELY QUICK MOVING H5 LOBE OF LOW PRESSURE PUSHES SOUTHEAST
ON TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
THEREAFTER. THIS RIDGE WILL BE THE DOMINANT FEATURE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS A GRADUAL WARMING TREND TAKES SHAPE THROUGH THE
END OF NEXT WEEK. WENT WITH DRY POPS TUESDAY THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY WITH
RAIN CHANCES INCREASING AFTER 00Z FRIDAY AS THE NEXT LOW APPROACHES
THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CURRENT TREND MOVES THE LOW INTO THE
CWA ON SATURDAY WITH THE BEST CHC OF PRECIP OCCURRING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOWEVER IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT THERE IS MUCH
DISAGREEMENT IN MODEL GUIDANCE. GFS INDICATES A SHARPLY NEGATIVE
TROUGH DIGGING IN ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES THAT
WILL EXIT OUT ONTO THE PLAINS LATE SATURDAY WHEREAS THE ECMWF SHOWS
LESS AMPLIFICATION AND A TRACK THAT IS SIGNIFICANTLY FURTHER NORTH.

HIGH TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL WARM INTO THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE AVERAGE TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE RIDGE INFLUENCES THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MDT SAT APR 30 2016

POOR AVIATION CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT BOTH TAF SITES. LOW CIGS
ARE RESULT OF A DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH...ALLOWING STRATUS TO REMAIN FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS. IFR CIGS LIFT TO MVFR THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING TO
IFR/LIFR AGAIN THIS EVENING. FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT...PRIMARILY
OVER EAST COLORADO BUT FOG MAY DEVELOP AS FAR EAST AS NORTHWEST
KANSAS. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TODAY AND THIS EVENING BUT AS THE
UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH...PRECIP CHANCES SHOULD DIMINISH LATE
TONIGHT. AT KGLD AND KMCK...MOST PRECIPITATION SHOULD FALL AS RAIN
BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW THIS EVENING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...RRH



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