Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 180910
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
210 AM MST Thu Jan 18 2018

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 200 AM MST Thu Jan 18 2018

Westerly winds and low dew points have so far kept fog from
developing across the area overnight. Will continue to monitor,
but does not appear fog will be an issue. Otherwise, expecting
mostly clear skies the next couple of days as upper ridge axis
traverses the region. Temperatures will be much above normal, with
a few records possible on Friday. Saturday is a transition day
with falling heights ahead of the approaching strong trough.
Surface cold front will back into the area through the day,
resulting in a large northeast to southwest temperature gradient.
May seem some morning fog in northeast Saturday morning with
moisture pooling along the front and upslope surface winds. As the
trough moves out of the Rockies Saturday night, some light snow
may develop overnight in northeast Colorado.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 144 AM MST Thu Jan 18 2018

For the extended period...the main wx concern for the entire CWA
continues to focus on the upper level trough that comes across the
central Rockies...closing off as it exits the Rockies into the
central Plains on Sunday. This system is fairly progressive and
shifts up towards the northern Mississippi Valley by late Sunday
night/Monday morning. After this system exits east...mainly dry
conditions will persist into next Thursday. Both the GFS/ECMWF do
show another system pushing thru the Rockies and could affect the
region for next weekend.

For the latter portion of the upcoming weekend into next Monday the
region will deal with a quick moving system. Both the latest runs of
the GFS and ECMWF fairly close with upper trough over the central
Rockies...but do differ as the system enters the Plains region. The
GFS speeds up the system while the ECMWF lags behind by about 6
hours.

This difference will affect the timing of rain/snow to all snow as
the region will see 30s for highs Sunday...with CAA changing precip
over to snow as Sunday progresses from WNW to E. Eventually as
colder air works into the area...all areas will see snow accum by
the end of the event.

The transition area/period from the rain to snow could even produce
some light mix in the form of sleet/freezing rain...but will hold
off on mention for now until track consistency in models. Best one
at this time is the ECMWF.

The track of the system and subsequent wrap-around moisture at the
end will put potential highest totals north of Interstate 70 in the
1-3 inch range...most in NE CO and locales along the KS/NE border.
South of the Interstate...1 inch or less. Strong winds on the back
side of the system will create the potential for blowing snow with
winds ranging in the 15-30 mph area.

For high temps...the 30s on Sunday will give way to 40s for the
remainder of the period with the return of high pressure. Overnight
lows will range from the upper teens into the mid 20s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)
Issued at 454 PM MST Wed Jan 17 2018

Throughout the remainder of the TAF period, VFR conditions are
expected at the McCook and Goodland terminals. There is a
possibility of some freezing fog or mist at the McCook terminal
around sunrise, confidence was too low at the time to include.
Winds will be around 5-10 knots shifting to the west southwest.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...EV


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