Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 191122
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
422 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

EARLY MORNING WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATE
LARGE SCALE TROUGHING ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WITH AN
AMPLIFIED RIDGE UPSTREAM ACROSS THE PACIFIC US COAST. BETWEEN
THESE FEATURES NORTH-NORTHWEST FLOW IS IN PLACE FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS TO SOUTHERN PLAINS. AT THE THE SURFACE ARCTIC COLD FRONT
IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG THE SD/NE STATE LINE WITH A SURFACE LOW
OVER NORTHCENTRAL COLORADO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY IN
PLACE OVER OUR CWA.
UPPER LEVEL STORM TRACK IS SPLIT AROUND OUR CWA THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK SO FORECAST CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN DRY DURING THESE
PERIODS.

AS OF 00Z GUIDANCE...NAM SNOW DEPTH CONTINUED TO BE UNREFLECTIVE
OF CURRENT SNOW FIELD AND HOLDS THIS SNOW FIELD IN PLACE THROUGH
THIS WEEKEND. AS A RESULT BL CONDITIONS AND SURFACE TEMPS FROM
THE NAM WERE NOT USED IN CURRENT FORECAST...THOUGH LARGER SCALE
FIELDS WERE TAKEN INTO CONSIDERATION. RAP/HRRR SNOW FIELDS WERE
MORE REFLECTIVE OF REALITY...SO THESE MODELS WERE USED THROUGH THE
NEXT 24 HR FOR ADJUSTING SHORT RANGE BL TRENDS.

TODAY-TONIGHT...ARCTIC FRONT MOVES FROM NORTHERN PLAINS TOWARDS
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY MIDDAY TODAY. WHILE COLDEST
AIR MASS REMAINS NORTH AND EAST...THIS FRONT WILL LEAD TO A
DECREASE IN TEMPS ALOFT OVER OUR CWA. LEE TROUGH REDEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON WILL HELP BRING RETURN FLOW INTO MOST OF OUR
CWA...SO WE SHOULD MANAGE TO WARM TO SEASONAL NORMALS IN THE UPPER
40S TO AROUND 50 FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SHORTWAVE RIDGE QUICKLY SHIFTS EAST WITH
SHORTWAVE TROUGHS SPLITTING AROUND OUR CWA DURING THESE PERIODS.
AS THIS PATTERN EVOLVES TEMPS ALOFT WILL GENERALLY SUPPORT
SEASONAL HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S.

AS THE SOUTHERN STREAM UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW TRANSITION
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...EASTERLY TO SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL
BRING INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN KS/SW NEBRASKA.
GFS/SREF ARE SHOWING A SHALLOW SATURATED LAYER DEVELOPING
THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE IS WEAK LIFT WITHIN THIS LAYER...HOWEVER DUE
TO THE LIMITED DEPTH OF THIS LAYER CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN A
FREEZING FOG/STRATUS EVENT RATHER THAN FREEZING DRIZZLE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING. I COULDNT RULE OUT A FEW POCKETS OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE THOUGH. AS LEE TROUGH REDEVELOPS FRIDAY...DRY
AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE WEST SHOULD HELP ERODE ANY FOG/STRATUS.
I AM CONCERNED THAT STRATUS MAY HOLD ON IN OUR EAST AND LIMIT
DIURNAL WARMING...BUT AT THIS POINT I DONT HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE
TO UNDERCUT CONSENSUS IN OUR EAST BY MORE THAN A FEW DEGREES. GFS
STILL SHOWS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING ACROSS OUR EAST FRIDAY
NIGHT IN OUR FAR EASTERN CWA...SO FREEZING FOG MAY REDEVELOP.
ANY FOG SHOULD BE QUICKLY TRENDING EAST WITH WEST/SOUTHWEST FLOW
MOVING EAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 218 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

SATURDAY...LOTS OF SUN DURING TIME OF PEAK HEATING BUT AN INCREASE
IN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVES INTO FAR EASTERN COLORADO TOWARD THE
END OF THE DAY. THESE CLOUDS THEN TRAVERSE THE REST OF THE FORECAST
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS SOME WEAK MID LEVEL FORCING WITH THE
MOSTLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS WHICH COULD PRODUCE A FEW AREAS OF VIRGA
BUT WITH RATHER LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARE PRETTY LOW. SOMETHING TO WATCH.

BEHIND THE WAVE THAT MOVES THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE A COLD
FRONT AND NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING INTO THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE
WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

GFS/ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT HIGH TEMPERATURES PRODUCED BY
MEX GUIDANCE (UPPER 50S AND LOW 60S) VS THE EXTENDED PROCEDURE WHICH
IS PRODUCING LOW TO MID 50S. PER COORDINATION WITH NORTHERN AND
EASTERN AND SOUTHERN OFFICES HAVE RAISED TEMPS ABOUT 3-4F AS A
START. LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30.

SUNDAY...UPPER TROUGH AXIS AND PLENTIFUL CLOUDINESS PASS ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE DAY LEAVING THE AREA UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AND
DECREASING CLOUDINESS OVERNIGHT. IT WILL BE WINDY DURING THE DAY
WITH NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DURING THE
NIGHT 10 TO 20 MPH. GFS/ECMWF 850MB TEMPERATURES SUPPORT ADVERTISED
HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...UPPER 40S TO
LOW 50S EAST OF THE STATE LINE. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TEENS
IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO TO THE MID 20S IN THE HILL CITY AREA.
DESPITE INCREASING MOISTURE IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS FINER
DETAILS AS TO WHERE IT WILL BE AND TIMING OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE
PRECLUDE A PRECIPITATION MENTION AT PRESENT TIME.

MONDAY...GFS/ECMWF HAVING A HARDER TIME AGREEING ON LARGE SCALE
FEATURES AND POSSIBLY MORE IMPORTANTLY LOWER LEVEL FEATURES. ONE
EXAMPLE IS 850MB TEMPERATURES. GFS ABOUT 6-7C WARMER THAN THE
ECMWF WHICH MAKES A LARGE DIFFERENCE IN TEMPERATURE FORECAST. NO
CHANGES MADE AT THIS POINT AND RAN WITH MID 30S TO LOW 40S IN FAR
EASTERN COLORADO WITH LOW 40S EAST OF THE BORDER. VARIABLE
CLOUDINESS THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT TEENS TO LOW 20S. CURRENTLY LOOKING AT WINDY
CONDITIONS FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY.

TUESDAY...MAY SEE MORE CLOUDINESS THEN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED AND
ONCE AGAIN ITS CONFINED TO MID AND UPPER LEVELS WHICH ISNT
FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION. NO CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE FORECAST
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 40S AND LOWS IN THE MID 20S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 422 AM MST WED NOV 19 2014

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK. 12-18 KFT
AGL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM FROM THE NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER BOTH TERMINALS AS
A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH TODAY. NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT WILL LIKELY
DECREASE AS SURFACE GRADIENT WEAKENS...BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
AROUND 00Z THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD.

06Z NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE POOLING OVER SW
NEBRASKA LATE TONIGHT...HOWEVER ALL OTHER SHORT RANGE GUIDANCE
KEEPS BETTER BL MOISTURE WELL NORTH OF KMCK. THOUGH UPDATED SNOW
FIELD APPEARS TO BE IN BETTER ALIGNMENT THAN 00Z...I STILL DO NOT
HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN THE NAM SOLUTION AT THIS POINT
CONSIDERING OTHER GUIDANCE IS FAVORING VFR. I HAVE LEFT ANY
MENTION OF SUB VFR CONDITIONS OUT OF KMCK TAF DURING THIS UPDATE.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...DR


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