Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 231505

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
805 AM MST Fri Feb 23 2018

Issued at 805 AM MST Fri Feb 23 2018

Dense fog advisory has been allowed to expire for the moment. Will
be re-evaluating as new data comes in. A few locations at 1/4sm in
freezing fog and will see how 15z model runs handle it for
possible re-issuance. Otherwise dry conditions today with highs in
the 30s. A few locations may see 40.

UPDATE Issued at 434 AM MST Fri Feb 23 2018

Update to forecast to remove Kit Carson county for Dense Fog
Advisory...but have added in KS counties along and north of I-70.
Obs across the area have been fluctuating with Advisory criteria
prompting issuance. The shrinking of the low cloud deck west
prompted removal of Kit Carson county. May adjust Advisory
coverage should cloud shield shift before 15z.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday night)
Issued at 230 AM MST Fri Feb 23 2018

Across the Tri State region this morning...cloudy skies and patchy
dense fog prevail with temperatures currently ranging from the upper
teens thru the mid and upper 20s. Winds are light from the WSW.

Going into today...expecting foggy conditions to lift during the
morning hours and give way to psunny/msunny skies into the afternoon

By tonight and on thru Saturday afternoon...the main wx concern
moves over the region in the form of an upper level shortwave and
surface low moving out off the Rockies and into the Plains region.
Models have shown run-to-run consistency in its movement into the
region for the start of the weekend. While the breaks in cloud cover
this afternoon will afford temps mainly in the tonight
temps will drop into mid teens to lower 20s for overnight lows.

The concern though in model differences will be the amount of warm
air aloft that will push into the CWA overnight into Saturday. This
will result in freezing rain mixing with snow for the event. At this
time these mixed conditions will mainly affect eastern zones...but
all locales will see some freezing precip before seeing snow.

With this...have upgraded the Winter Storm Watch to a Winter Wx
Advisory but have added the next tier of counties...leaving only the
southern 6 counties south of I-70 out of it. Expecting the Advisory
to run from 00z-18z Saturday.

Because there will be some light ice accumulation mixed with some
snowfall the Advisory has been broken into 3 sections:

Yuma...Dundy...Hitchcock and Red Willow counties seeing the most
potential snow with 3-6 inches of accum and a light glaze of ice.

Kit carson...Sherman...Cheyenne KS...Thomas and Rawlins will see
around 2-4 inches of snow with a couple hundredths of an inch of ice

Graham...Norton...Decatur and Sheridan counties will see the most
potential mix wintry conditions with 1-3 inches of snow with up to a
tenth of an inch of ice.

Locales south of I-70 will see light wintry conditions but not
enough to hit Advisory criteria at this time. This may change and be
update if track of the systems change before precip arrives.

As the wx system transitions east thru the day Saturday...areas will
see a few hours of northerly wind gusts in the 25-35 mph range
before tapering off for the overnight period.

Saturday night thru the remainder of the weekend will have dry
conditions ensue for the entire CWA.

For temps...Saturday into Sunday will see an uptrend in daytime
highs with upper 30s to the mid 40s to end the weekend. Overnight
lows will be in the teens.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 151 AM MST Fri Feb 23 2018

Dry and warmer weather is expected to start off the extended period.
Southwest flow develops over the region on Monday as an upper trough
digs into the west coast. The warm and dry conditions in place may
raise concerns for fire weather Monday afternoon for the southern
portion of the region when RH values of 15 to 20 percent will be
possible. However, southerly winds are not impressive at this time.

The upper trough heads towards the desert southwest on Tuesday as a
cold front approaches the region. This disturbance brings a slight
chance of light snow to the forecast on Tuesday night. Dry
conditions return for the remainder of the period as the trough
makes its way east on Wednesday and Thursday.

The warmest day of the long term looks to be Monday with highs in
the mid 40s to upper 50s. This is followed by a decrease into the
upper 30s to mid 40s by Wednesday, then a return to the 40s and low
50s on Thursday. Low temperatures should be in the teens and 20s
throughout the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 420 AM MST Fri Feb 23 2018

For both taf sites...thru 15z this morning MVFR/IFR conditions
with fog and low clouds affecting the area. From 15z-02z...VFR
conditions. From 02z onward...conditions drop to MVFR/IFR at
times as wintry wx develops w/ light to moderate snow. Winds
light/variable thru 15z then mainly ESE around 10kts.


KS...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ this afternoon
     to 11 AM MST /noon CST/ Saturday for KSZ001>004-013>016.

CO...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM MST
     Saturday for COZ090-091.

NE...Winter Weather Advisory from 5 PM MST /6 PM CST/ this afternoon
     to 11 AM MST /noon CST/ Saturday for NEZ079>081.



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