Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 202048
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
148 PM MST Mon Feb 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 147 PM MST Mon Feb 20 2017

Latest upper air analysis shows the trough from yesterday continuing
east across the Plains.  Behind the trough a corridor of very dry
air follows.  Further west a short wave ridge was also moving east.
Water vapor quickly increases west of the approaching ridge axis.
At the surface northwest winds have been gusting up to 45 MPH across
much of the Tri-State Area late this morning, with wind speeds
gradually slowing in the afternoon.

Tonight northwest winds will quickly become light in the early
evening then turn to the southwest as a surface high pressure moves
through.  Behind the surface high winds will gradually turn back to
the west.  Due to the clear sky and the cooler, drier air mass, lows
will be cooler than the last couple of nights.

Tuesday warmer air returns behind the surface high.  Highs will
exceed records for the day.  For some locations this will be as much
as six degrees warmer than record values based on the current
forecast.  West winds will be light to breezy, with the stronger
winds over the northern half of the Tri-State Area.  The breezy
winds and low relative humidity values may lead to critical fire
weather conditions in Yuma County. See fire weather section for
further information. For records see climate section below.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 204 AM MST Mon Feb 20 2017

Thursday-Friday: GFS/ECMWF are in general agreement on H5 pattern,
showing negatively tilted open shortwave trough moving over our
CWA, with several strong lobes of vorticity across our north. H7
low becomes broadly closed off, and current GFS/ECMWF are weaker
than current GEM and old ECMWF of 24hr ago. Confidence is still
high in precipitation (particularly north), and what should be a
clean rain to snow transition. ECMWF is a little faster with cold
front and may have temps falling in the afternoon and an earlier
change over. Precip is shown to be light to moderate, and system
is fairly progressive so accumulation potential is somewhat
limited compared to the heavier amounts shown 24hr ago.

While current consensus and conservative timing of change over may
only support 0.5-1", adjusting latest QPF trends for an earlier
transition to snow could support upwards of 3" (advisory) in our
north. Warm ground temps will play a role in melting snow that
falls and potential for blowing snow off ground, so that does
limit confidence on potential impacts. At the same time winds
increase sharply behind front and if this coincides with any
falling snow, then blowing snow would occur. Visibility
restrictions would play more of a role if this coincides with
moderate pockets or bands of snow (can`t rule this out).

Saturday-Sunday: Models show west to southwest flow redeveloping,
however heights aloft do not completely recover and a series of
shortwave troughs moving across Northern Plains reinforce
lingering quasi-stationary front near our CWA. Lee trough
attempts to develop towards our southwest, but there isn`t a lot
of consistency on the surface pattern due to this more
active/progressive pattern aloft. Result should be that temps
linger near seasonal levels at least, and I could see periods
where current highs are actually too warm if low clouds persist
north of this front. There are occasional precip chances with
progressive shortwave troughs, particularly on Sunday with a
stronger shortwave trough passage. There is not a lot of
consistency on evolution of this feature at this time, or strong
consensus on precip most periods. I kept 20/30 PoPs in place where
current blend/mean places them due to lower confidence on details
at this range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1014 AM MST Mon Feb 20 2017

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Main issue will be the
strong winds today. Winds are currently at their peak for the day.
The winds will begin to decline in the next couple of hours as the
low level jet overhead shifts east and weakens. Winds will quickly
slow from breezy to light around 0z.

Tonight the winds will turn to the southwest as a surface
high pressure moves through. Behind the surface high the winds
will gradually turn more to the west and remain light.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 147 PM MST Mon Feb 20 2017

Tuesday afternoon wind gusts around 25 MPH and relative humidity
values less than 15 percent will occur over Yuma County.  The
question is how much of the county will breezy winds cover and how
long will the breezy winds last. Current forecast has the west half
of the county meeting duration criteria for the winds/low relative
humidity. However since the current wind forecast is on the high
side of the available data, do not have enough confidence to issue a
warning at this time.

Considered including Kit Carson County in the watch.  However even
going on the higher side of the wind data only has the northwest
quarter of the county meeting criteria for three hours.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 300 AM MST Mon Feb 20 2017

Record and near record high temperatures are expected Tuesday
February 21st at the following locations:

Goodland...........73 in 1995 and previous years
Hill City..........77 in 1977
McCook.............76 in 1933
Burlington.........72 in 2000
Colby..............74 in 1972 and previous years
Tribune............77 in 1924
Yuma...............72 in 1982

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ this evening for
     KSZ001-002-013-014-027-028-041-042.

CO...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST this evening for COZ252>254.

     Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday
     afternoon for COZ252.

NE...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM MST /7 PM CST/ this evening for
     NEZ079-080.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JTL
FIRE WEATHER...JTL
CLIMATE...99


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