Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 241118

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
518 AM MDT SAT SEP 24 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 222 AM MDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Upper low is now centered over southern Wyoming, with leading edge
of forcing (associated with jet streak) over western
Nebraska/Kansas. Subsidence/deep dry air is building eastward around
the southern part of upper low into our western CWA. At the surface
a cold front is already moving towards the Colorado border and
should be through our CWA by sunrise.

Today-Sunday: As upper low continues to shift towards the northern
plains large scale subsides as a result of ridging in the west will
spread eastward. Dry conditions should prevail after
showers/thunderstorms exit eastward this morning. Temperatures today
will be near seasonal normals in the 70s to near 80F. A secondary
surge of CAA will occur late tonight and Saturday morning. This will
bring below normal temperatures around 70F for Sunday.

Ideal radiational conditions Sunday night will support at least
patchy frost across our western CWA and along low spots in SW
Nebraska. A freeze may occur at a few locations in eastern Colorado.
Ultimately we may need to consider a frost advisory if trends hold.
Rising heights with strengthening ridge will support slightly warmer
temperatures Monday and Monday night. There could still be a few
locations in eastern colorado dropping to the mid 30s Monday
night, however most locations should be in the 40s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 207 AM MDT Sat Sep 24 2016

Dry conditions are expected in the beginning of extended before
precipitation chances return during the latter half of the work
week. High temperatures remain relatively steady in the upper 70s to
low 80s throughout the forecast while lows rise from the 40s into
the 50s.

At the start of the period, northwesterly flow is anticipated aloft
with a trough over the eastern CONUS while a ridge develops over the
western half of the country. The ridge pushes east over the Plains
Tuesday and Wednesday, keeping dry conditions in place. An upper
level disturbance moves into the Four Corners on Wednesday and
advances across the region Thursday and Thursday night. This upper
disturbance brings thunderstorm chances back to the area, with the
better chance Thursday night, lingering into Friday. Guidance agrees
on the track of this shortwave, but there are still some differences
with timing that will continue to be monitored.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 518 AM MDT Sat Sep 24 2016

VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period at both KGLD
and KMCK. There may be a few light showers/sprinkles possible in
the first 3hr of the TAF period, however overall trend is towards
this activity remaining well outside the area of either terminal.
Winds should shift towards the north and decrease below 12kt by
midday...then increase to 12-15kt late tonight as another cold
front moves through the region.


.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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