Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 201930

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
130 PM MDT Sat May 20 2017

Issued at 1125 AM MDT Sat May 20 2017

Update to forecast to adjust high temps for today. Based on the
conditions across the CWA from a few hours ago...temps have not
shown much rebound despite seeing some sunshine working thru the
extensive coverage of low clouds. As a result have dropped highs
for today by a few degrees.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 241 AM MDT Sat May 20 2017

The primary short term forecast concern is the possibility
isolated strong to severe storms late in the day on Monday.

Rain showers will lift out of the forecast area today as the large
low pressure system lifts through the central plains states
towards the Great Lakes region. Conditions will dry out briefly from
this afternoon through Sunday morning as surface high pressure
moves into the region and temperatures warm. A few thunderstorms
are possible Sunday afternoon and evening as a weak disturbance
moves east of the Rockies. A chance of thunderstorms returns
again late Monday as a cold front moves through the region and a
short wave trough rotates around the main upper low over the Great
Lakes region and sweeps across the central high plains. A stronger
upper trough is expected to follow the initial short wave trough,
sweeping across the region Monday night. A few storms late Monday
through Monday evening may be strong to severe with strong to
damaging winds and hail.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 129 PM MDT Sat May 20 2017

Upper low moves into the Great Lakes region on Sunday night and into
Monday. Showers and a few embedded thunderstorms will continue
through the day on Monday, decreasing in coverage during the
overnight hours into Tuesday as the remaining trough deepens and
moves slowly eastward. There is very little instability with this
system thus thunderstorm coverage will be isolated.

High pressure builds into the Great Basin as we head into Thursday
with dry weather expected during the first half of the day and slgt
chc of thunderstorms during the afternoon situated along a dryline
that will move eastward across the CWA. A more significant setup is
taking shape for Friday afternoon, as CAPE values build into the
2500 to 3000 J/Kg range (GFS) along the KS/CO and CO/NE borders.
There will be 30 to 50 knots of 0-6km shear in place thus when
combined with the CAPE and an approaching dryline, severe
thunderstorm chances increase substantially compared to previous
days. A similar setup will remain in place for Saturday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1116 AM MDT Sat May 20 2017

For KGLD...MVFR(BKN022) skies thru 20z...becoming VFR thereafter
with BKN035 going to FEW-SCT200 by 03z tonight. There will be the
chance for a passing shower thru 20z with no expected visibility
reduction. Winds NNW 10-20kts thru 03z Sunday. Gusts to 25kts
thru 20z. After 03z Sunday...NW around 5 kts thru 14z then
becoming N.

For KMCK...MVFR conditions thru 21z with ceilings ranging from
BKN015-025. From 21z onward...VFR skies with BKN035 giving way to
FEW-SCT200 by 03z Sunday. Winds NW 10-20kts thru 03z Sunday...then
WNW around 5kts.




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