Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 301835
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1235 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1231 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

JUST FINISHED AN UPDATE FOR A COUPLE OF THINGS. FIRST...SMOKE THAT
WAS STILL TRAPPED ALOFT HAS BEEN MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE
RESULTING IN MINOR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS. SO INSERTED SMOKE
THROUGH MID EVENING. ALSO LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHEAST THIRD TO HALF
HAVE RISEN RAPIDLY AND ARE NEAR FORECAST MAXES. SO RAISED MAXES
IN THAT AREA.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 858 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED AND THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

JUST COMPLETED AN UPDATE TO INCREASE AREA OF FOG AND MORE
IMPORTANTLY TO ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NORTON AND GRAHAM
COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 238 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THERE MAY BE PATCHY FOG FIRST THING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE HILL
CITY TO NORTON TO PHILLIPSBURG AREA...BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE RAPIDLY FOLLOWING SUNRISE.

ANOTHER DRY DAY IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH THE MAIN FORECAST FOCUS IN
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ON POSSIBLE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

A SURFACE LEE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN ALONG THE FRONT RANGE TODAY AND
TONIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH SWEEPS THROUGH THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST INTO THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIE...FLATTENING
THE UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM NEW MEXICO TO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
REGION. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT LIFTS OUT OF THE CENTRAL
ROCKIES AND MOVES SLOWLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION
BETWEEN MONDAY EVENING AND TUESDAY MORNING.  THE SURFACE TROUGH
MOVES OFF THE FRONT RANGE AND ONTO THE PLAINS...PROVIDING A FOCUS
FOR THE FORMATION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT RANGE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MOVE ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION MONDAY EVENING...DISSIPATING THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THEY CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
AREA.

THE LEE SURFACE TROUGH RETROGRADES AND REINTENSIFIES ALONG THE
EASTERN COLORADO BORDER ON TUESDAY BEFORE ADDITIONAL WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW HELP PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THAT LIFT NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
NIGHT.

HIGH TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK WILL
BE MAINLY BETWEEN 90-95 WHILE LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE MAINLY IN
THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 217 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE POSITIONED OVER
THE TRI STATE AREA AND WILL MOVE OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS REGION
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.  AS A RESULT...CONDITIONS WILL BE DRY DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH THE BEST FORCING AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. WARM AND
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED...ALTHOUGH A LACK OF STRONG SURFACE WINDS
DUE TO THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE TROUGH WILL PREVENT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM DEVELOPING.

A LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND ACROSS
THE ROCKIES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AND THIS PATTERN WILL BRING
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR MOST OF THE TRI STATE AREA
INTO THE WEEKEND. DRY LOWER LEVEL AIR EVIDENT FROM MODEL SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST THAT STRONG STORMS WILL NOT BE LIKELY...BUT LAPSE RATES
ALOFT ARE STEEP ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR CONVECTION TO BE SUSTAINED WITH
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH FORCING. MOST MODELS KEEP THE MAIN
UPPER AND MID LEVEL TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST
AREA...SO CONFIDENCE IS LACKING OF HAVING ANY STRONG FORCING TO
CAUSE PRECIPITATION.  WITH COLLABORATION WITH SURROUNDING FORECAST
OFFICES...LOWERED PROBABILITIES FOR PRECIPITATION A BIT FROM THE
MODEL CONSENSUS. HOWEVER...IF THE HEIGHT FALLS ARE STRONG ENOUGH
OVER THE TRI STATE AREA...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE...KEPT SOME CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE
FORECAST.

THE NEXT BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS A SURFACE COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE HIGH PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE
90S...BUT THE FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S ON SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

AT THIS VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT BOTH SITES THROUGH THE
PERIOD. SOUTHERLY SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 19 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF
23 TO 27 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY EVENING WHEN THEY WILL
DECREASE AND STOP GUSTING. FOR KMCK AFTER 06Z IT WILL BE POSSIBLE
THAT FOG AND STRATUS COULD IMPACT THE SITE. CHOSE TO KEEP
CONDITIONS VFR AT THIS TIME BUT POSSIBLY THEY COULD BE LOWER FROM
09Z TO 15Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...BULLER


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