Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 262348

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
548 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Issued at 313 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Updated forecast to add the convective watch for severe
thunderstorms across the forecast area.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 201 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

Across the Tri State region this afternoon...mainly mostly sunny
skies with some mostly cloudy due to trw moving thru...albeit
scattered in nature at this time. Temperatures are currently ranging
in the upper 70s up to 90F in a few spots...with light/variable

For the rest of the afternoon into the evening/overnight
period...scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop and move
thru the region. Some of these will become severe with heavy
rainfall...1 to 2 inch hail...and strong winds. With upper ridge in
place and very little surface flow...storms will move slowly and may
cause potential flooding conditions. These storms will begin to wane
as the evening hours progress with loss of instability. Boundary
over the region will shift thru the region during this time. Do
expect temps to drop into the mid and upper 50s with skies going
partly cloudy and winds go ESE.

Going into Tuesday...upper ridge in place over the Plains
region...with a strong surface gradient setting up with low pressure
west...and a surface ridge east. By the afternoon hrs...gusts could
shift upwards into the 40-50 mph range. With this setup...increased
instability on strong WAA with bring temps into the low 90s. This
increase in instability will give chance for increased trw
probability. From the SPC...the CWA is currently split between
Marginal and Slight Risk for severe wx. Models currently have precip
shifting from west to east thru the day...with best chances right
now for the afternoon hrs to start...and windy conditions by midday
at the latest.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 222 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

An active period of weather is expected during the entire extended
period. Starting off Tuesday night, there is a fairly zonal upper
level flow pattern but chances for severe weather are present due to
a shortwave trough that is expected to move over the region. This is
essentially the same pattern that will occur on Wednesday as well.
Both days have favorable CAPEs and bulk shear. Wednesday shows to
have more shear coverage over the region.

Thursday brings another day for severe weather. The upper level
pattern brings a trough over the region, as well as a shortwave that
will initiate storm development. As of current guidance, Thursday
has the best potential for more widespread storm coverage.

The remainder of the period, Friday through Monday, brings continued
storm chances. The trough that moves over the CWA on Thursday will
exit the area by Saturday afternoon. Then upper level west,
northwest flow will dominate over the region. Shortwave troughs each
day will help with storm initation. Late Sunday night brings a small
trough over the region. This trough will be the starter of storms
that night. The trough will quickly move east and be out of the area
by Monday.

Temperatures during the period will be in the 80s, with Friday
seeing some upper 70s to mid 80s due to a cold frontal passage
Thursday night.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 514 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

MCK should remain VFR through the TAF period with light southeast
winds and a few low clouds developing around sunrise. Additional
higher CU should develop Tuesday afternoon with southeast winds
becoming gusty.

GLD will remain VFR through the TAF period with light southeast
winds becoming gusty out of the south during Tuesday afternoon. A
few low clouds are expected between 10-14Z with higher CU
developing later in the afternoon that will likely develop into
isolated to scattered thunderstorms.




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