Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
FXUS63 KGLD 160619
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1119 PM MST Sun Jan 15 2017
.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 124 PM MST Sun Jan 15 2017
Overview: Main concern remains with the winter storm impacting the
region this afternoon, tonight, and into Monday. Freezing rain this
afternoon will transition first to sleet, then to snow from west to
east this evening. Snow will be moderate to heavy at times. Recent
guidance has been reducing the snowfall totals with each iteration
due to the persistent eastward track of the low, which is now moving
into southwest Texas and southeastern New Mexico. The eastward jog
will cause the focus of snowfall to shift eastward. We still expect
a band of heavy snow to set up from south-southwest to north-
northeast tonight and Monday morning. Those locations within the
heavier band will generally see 3 to 5 inches of snow with the
potential of up to 7 inches in isolated locations. Due to the slower
movement of this system, light snow could linger into Monday
afternoon before moving off to the east and northeast.
Impacts: Power outages and downed trees/limbs are possible this
afternoon and early evening especially in areas where ice
accumulations approach or exceed one quarter of an inch. Winds have
remained relatively light today but are expected to increase as the
low approaches the region overnight and into Monday. Roadways are
already slick this afternoon and driving conditions will continue to
deteriorate this afternoon and evening. Tonight`s concern will
mainly be travel related as heavy snowfall will make for slick
roadways and low visibility at times.
.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1258 PM MST Sun Jan 15 2017
For the extended period...the exiting of the storm system from over
the weekend/holiday period...will allow for mid level ridging to
build over the Plains Region. Models do set up a cutoff upper low
into the mix that sets up over the Southern Plains/Rockies midweek.
This system works northeast into the Central Plains region late
Thursday/Thursday night. This low will be followed by subsequent
systems leading into the upcoming weekend.
Models differences for timing and positioning of the forthcoming
systems do crop up in latest runs of the GFS/ECMWF. Trend is for
light precipitation to ensue as these pass by...mostly for the
latter ones towards the upcoming weekend...with qpf on the low side
due to presence of subsidence from ridging. Overall trend thru the
forecast is for warmer...above normal temps(mid 40s to low 50s)thru
the daytime hours...and w/ overnight low temps ranging in the 20s.
Cloud cover will be the main caveat that may inhibit temps for both
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1034 PM MST Sun Jan 15 2017
The low associated with the system spreading a wintry mix of
precipitation across the central high plains region this evening
will continue to lift out of Texas and into eastern Kansas by mid
day on Monday and western Illinois by Monday night. As the system
pulls cooler air aloft southward on the back side of the system as
it lifts across the plains states, precipitation is expected to
transition to all snow snow after about 09Z at MCK and GLD with
precipitation generally coming to an end by 20Z Monday afternoon.
Conditions at GLD will remain near the VLIFR/LIFR threshold
overnight through 18Z. The initially mixed phase precipitation is
expected to change to all snow by 09Z with conditions
transitioning back to IFR as snow ends and conditions become VFR
again between 02-05Z.
MCK will also remain near the LIFR/VLIFR threshold through the
overnight hours and through about 20Z tomorrow afternoon. Expect
light snow to develop and continue from 09Z through about 19Z.
Between 20Z-01Z...expect snow to end and conditions to transition
from LIFR to MVFR with VFR expected after 02Z.
KS...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM MST /8 PM CST/ Monday for
Ice Storm Warning until 11 AM MST /noon CST/ Monday for KSZ004-
CO...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM MST Monday for COZ091-092.
Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM MST Monday for COZ090.
NE...Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM MST /8 PM CST/ Monday for