Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 261947
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
147 PM MDT FRI AUG 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Tonight)
Issued at 1142 AM MDT Fri Aug 26 2016

17Z Water Vapor Imagery and RAP analysis indicated two short wave
troughs approaching the area...one system approaching from the
Texas panhandle while the second was currently moving to the east
over northwest Colorado. The latter trough will likely be the
primary trigger for precipitation chances this afternoon and
evening.

Thunderstorm chances will be the primary concern as expected
forcing has been slower than expected...resulting in a significant
delay in precipitation onset across the CWA. Last few scans of
visible satellite show an increase in cumulus ahead of short wave
trough and its sfc reflection...and imagine this more widespread
convective initiation will develop over next 2 hours. How far
east things get remain in question...and have a few doubts if
storms will make a great eastward push...or build south along
instability gradient and into stronger low level waa. Do not
really have a favored solution at this point but will trend PoPs
this evening to more of a compromise unless data leading to a more
preferred solution presents itself. Otherwise as storms end
across the area may see a brief period of clearing...but with
favorable humidity profiles expect fog and stratus to develop
during the overnight hours.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Friday)
Issued at 146 PM MDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Theta-e boundary will be draped across the CWA from southwest to
northeast Saturday morning and will remain stationary through the
day. Relatively high mixing ratios and CAPE in the 1000 to 1500 J/Kg
range along and southeast of this boundary will allow thunderstorm
development mainly during the afternoon and will focus in the
eastern and southeastern portions of the CWA where instability is
the highest. Deep layer shear is modest and severe thunderstorms, if
any, will be isolated. Southwest flow aloft becomes southerly as we
head into Sunday. The theta-e boundary will pull northwestward,
allowing moisture to be advected into the region through the
afternoon along the western flank of a broad area of high pressure.
Could see showers and thunderstorms form once more as instability
will be enough to allow afternoon/evening convective development
along a shortwave, especially in eastern portions of the CWA. PoPs
remain in the forecast on Monday with high pressure to the
east/southeast and H5 low pressure just off the northwest Pacific
coast. Pattern remains in place on Tuesday and into early Wednesday,
keeping PoPs in the forecast mainly for eastern portions of the CWA.
High pressure builds into the region on Thursday and Friday with dry
weather expected both days.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Fri Aug 26 2016

Complicated aviation forecast expected for next 24 hours as area
of thunderstorms will impact area this afternoon and
evening...followed by potential IFR conditions in fog and stratus
overnight. Precipitation has been slow to develop...but expect
storms to form before 20z across eastern Colorado and slowly
expand to the east southeast ahead of next disturbance. Storms
should clear area by 03z...but as clouds clear out behind todays
system expect fog and stratus to develop across much of the area.
A period of IFR conditions looks possible at both MCK and GLD.


&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JRM
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JRM



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