Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 070744

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1244 AM MST Wed Dec 7 2016

Issued at 1244 AM MST Wed Dec 7 2016

Adjusted PoPs, Wx, and snow based on late evening/early morning
trends and latest high resolution guidance. Light snow already
accumulating over Yuma county with drier air along/south of I-70
limiting potential for the next few hours. By 09Z main area of
forcing shifts into our CWA along leading edge of PV 1.5 height
anomaly. Strong frontogenesis in the 850-700 mb layer should
support increasing snow coverage towards the I-70 corridor around
09Z in line with previous forecast, so main change in PoPs was to
delay onset south then bump up coverage 09-15Z. Winds should pick
up (gusts 20-25 mph possible), but peak BL winds remain south of
main area of snow and transitions south ahead of snow band/bands
around 09Z. This lowers confidence in all but patchy blowing snow

Regarding snow amounts: SREF plumes and high res guidance tends
to support 1-2" over our CWA, with a narrow area of 3" possible
along the highway 36 corridor. Based on probabilities thinking
this would be just under advisory criteria for most locations in
our CWA, and confidence is not high enough to issue advisory.

UPDATE Issued at 1044 PM MST Tue Dec 6 2016

Update issued to shift the timing of increased pops over the CWA by
another hr...also temps. Latest radar trend has shown increased
areal coverage but many areas still not seeing precip at the
ground due to low level dry air. Do expect this still to change
later on tonight as shortwave continues its trek off the Central
Rockies and into the Plains region. Increased easterly upslope
flow in combo with passing shortwave should aid in -sn/sn
development towards forecasted accum. Increased cloud cover has
slowed the temp drop over the have adjusted a bit up.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 156 PM MST Tue Dec 6 2016

Shortwave trough currently over the northern Rockies will move
southeast tonight and Wednesday as an open wave bringing light to
moderate snow across the local area. Snow will develop in
northeast Colorado this evening then spread into northwest Kansas
and southwest Nebraska later tonight, mainly in areas north of
Interstate 70. Snow chances will be lower south of the Interstate
tonight, but some light snow will develop there tomorrow morning.
Snow will wind down tomorrow afternoon for all areas. For snow
totals, used a blend of the 12z GFS and 15z SREF. They were very
similar on amounts but varied slightly only location. GFS had an
axis of 2 to 4 inches across southern Washington and Yuma counties
and into Cheyenne County, Kansas, while the SREF had the axis
slightly further north and east, from northern Yuma County
southeast into the Kansas/Nebraska border area. Confidence was
still not quite there for advisory criteria amounts (3 to 5
inches), but would not be surprised to see a few localized 4 or 5
inch reports in the Yuma CO, Cheyenne KS and Dundy County NE area.
Winds will increase overnight to around 15kts with gusts up to
25kts, resulting in some patchy blowing snow but again not enough
to warrant an advisory. Temperatures will go nowhere on Wednesday,
with highs in the mid teens to lower 20s and wind chills in the
single digits below zero.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 1213 PM MST Tue Dec 6 2016

During the extended period the big focus will be the very cold
temperatures that will impact the region Wednesday night into
Thursday morning. Due to the arctic air still impacting the region,
temperatures are expected to drop close to zero, if not just below.
Winds/wind gusts are forecasted to be 5 to 15 mph for a few hours
but otherwise below 10 mph. Despite this, wind chill temperatures
could reach 10 to 20 below zero during the overnight hours into the
early morning hours on Thursday. This could potentially be worthy of
a wind chill advisory.

The remainder of the period will be primarily dry. There is a small
potential for precipitation Saturday, but models are differing at the
moment so decided to remove any chances. For the most part the upper
level flow will be marginal with the trough moving east of the
region Thursday into Friday. Zonal flow will begin to move over the
region during the day on Friday with the development of a shortwave
trough in the Pacific Northwest. That trough is showing to move over
the region Saturday (hence the possible PoP chances). Sunday and
Monday will continue to be dry, with Tuesday showing slight chances
for rain/snow across the far northern portions of the region.

Temperatures will be in the low 20s Thursday but will begin to
increase Friday into the 30s and 40s. Saturday will be in the 40s
and low 50s. Sunday will see a decrease into the 30s with the passage
of a cold front. Monday and Tuesday will increase back up into the


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Wednesday night)
Issued at 1032 PM MST Tue Dec 6 2016

Light to moderate snow will fall across the forecast area into the
day Wednesday. Visibility 3-6sm thru 22z with occasional 1 1/2 to
2sm -sn 08z-16z. Blowing snow possible aiding in visibility
reduction thru 15z-16z. Ceilings will range down to ovc010-030
from 08z Wed to 02z Thursday at times...otherwise VFR. Winds NNE
10-20kts becoming WNW by 02z.




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