Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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729
FXUS63 KGLD 240541
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1141 PM MDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 151 PM MDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Northwest winds of 10 to 20 mph this evening will increase a bit
after midnight under a clear/mostly clear sky. Low temperatures look
to drop into the upper 20s to low 30s in far eastern Colorado,
low to upper 30s east of the CO/KS border.

For Tuesday winds quickly increase into the 25 to 35 mph range with
gusts to 45 mph expected per MET/MAV and local wind gust program.
850mb temperatures a degree or two cooler compared to Monday so will
aim for highs in the upper 50s to low 60s which is normal for this
time of year.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 151 PM MDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Wednesday through Monday the weather will be dry and fairly
uneventful.  A couple cold fronts will move through the forecast
area, one late Wednesday night/early Thursday morning and another
Monday.

After the first cold front moves through, highs on Thursday will be
warmest in the morning then fall through the day due to strong cold
air advection. The winds will be strong, with gusts of 45 to 50 MPH.
Due to the dry ground conditions, this may lead to some blowing dust
near bare ground.  Thursday night all or nearly all of the forecast
area will have a hard freeze.  The eastern edge of Graham and Gove
counties may be just warm enough to avert a hard freeze, but am not
too confident of that given the good radiational cooling that should
occur.  Highs on Friday will be similar to what the lows on
Wednesday will be.  However winds will be light as the surface high
moves through.

Saturday and Sunday temperatures will warm ahead of the next cold
front that will move through on Monday.

Regarding the cold front on Monday, models disagree as to whether a
weak front will move through ahead of the main cold air mass surge
Tuesday or Wednesday, or if the cold air will come in with one surge
with an intensity as strong as the front on Wednesday night/Thursday
morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1135 PM MDT Mon Oct 23 2017

VFR conditions with mostly clear skies will prevail through the
TAF period at MCK and GLD. LLWS with northerly winds of 35kts a
few hundred feet above the surface will will transition back into
gusty north northwest surface winds around after 15Z Tuesday
morning as the night time surface inversion breaks down and the
winds mixes back to the surface. Winds will become light again and
turn more westerly after 00Z Tuesday evening as surface
high pressure expands across the region and the pressure gradient
relaxes.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 151 PM MDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Tuesday afternoon wind gusts will be well above the needed
criteria. However relative humidity values will only fall to
around 20 percent. Even though the relative humidity will not be
low enough to meet criteria, the strong winds will lead to very
hazardous fire weather conditions during the afternoon.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...LOCKHART
FIRE WEATHER...99/JTL



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