Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
FXUS63 KGLD 290804
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
204 AM MDT FRI JUL 29 2016
.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 200 AM MDT Fri Jul 29 2016
Widely scattered thunderstorms are moving southeast across the
area overnight in response to a shortwave trough topping the Four
Corners ridge. These will move out of the area early this morning.
There will be a lull in precipitation chances through most of the
day before the next shortwave arrives later this afternoon with
scattered thunderstorms redeveloping and continuing through
tonight. Instability will be lower compared to yesterday although
deep layer shear remains good at around 40kts. Severe threat
appears to be marginal at best with only limited coverage due to
Upper ridge nudges northward on Saturday which will keep
precipitation chances to a minimum. There will be slight chances
associated with any weak shortwave coming over the ridge in the
afternoon or evening hours...mainly in eastern portions of the
area. Instability and shear continue to be supportive for a severe
threat if anything can get going. Temperatures will be near to
slightly below normal.
More of the same on Sunday with the ridge holding strong but with
weak shortwaves coming through cannot completely remove slight
thunderstorm chances in the afternoon and evening hours. Deep
layer shear will however be noticeably weaker so severe threat
will be lower for Sunday. Temperatures will warm to above normal.
.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 200 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2016
Thunderstorm chances persist throughout the extended period as
multiple shortwave disturbances impact the area. Hotter temperatures
return early next week.
On Monday, flow aloft is somewhat zonal with an area of upper high
pressure over the southern Plains. A closed low moves into the
Pacific Northwest and continues along the Canadian border through
Tuesday. The low sharpens the ridge over the region early next week.
Conditions should be drier Monday and Tuesday with the ridge being
the dominating feature. However, monsoonal moisture does appear to
filter north towards the High Plains, so thunderstorms cannot be
The ridge progresses east on Wednesday as the closed low nears the
northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front approaches the region,
leading to better precipitation chances Wednesday night
The work week starts out with temperatures in the 90s Monday through
Wednesday as high pressure persists over the area. Cooler highs,
mainly in the 80s, are forecast on Thursday with the cold front
nearby. Low temperatures remain in the 60s to low 70s.
.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1122 PM MDT Thu Jul 28 2016
Mainly VFR conditions for both sites with a mix of scattered
clouds. MVFR possible from 09z-16z with 3sm br and bkn025. Winds
mainly ENE around 10kts thru 16z-19z then transitioning to ESE.