Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 250110
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
710 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 710 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

FORECAST UPDATE SENT OUT TO REMOVE EASTERN COLORADO FROM THE
TORNADO WATCH. REST OF TORNADO WATCH #206 DOES REMAIN IN EFFECT.
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS MOVED EAST INTO NW KANSAS AT
THIS TIME...WHICH HAS IN TURN REDUCED THE THREAT OVER EASTERN
COLORADO FOR SEVERE WX. FLASH FLOOD WATCH DOES REMAIN IN EFFECT
FOR EASTERN CO THOUGH AND WILL HAVE INTACT AS SOME -RW/RW STILL
MOVING THRU AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 147 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE ROCKIES AND PLAINS TONIGHT AND
MONDAY.  A SURFACE LOW WILL EXIST OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO DURING
THIS TIME.

SHORTWAVES EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FA
THIS EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON.  FORCING WILL BE NEAR THE
TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST FA THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN LIFT
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING. SUBSIDENCE WILL MOVE INTO THE FA
LATER TONIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING BEHIND THE EXITING SHORTWAVE.
PLAN TO GO WITH HIGH POPS FOR TONIGHT NEAR THE TROUGH WITH LOWER
POPS AFTER 06Z MONDAY THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. BOUNDARY LAYER RH
INCREASES AFTER 06Z MONDAY SO WILL ADD SOME PATCHY FOG THROUGH 15Z
MONDAY. POPS WILL INCREASE AGAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH LIFT NEAR
THE TROUGH AXIS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHWEST KANSAS. THE
STORMS SHOULD MOVE EAST INTO THE FA AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST
ACROSS THE FA.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING
WITH STORMS INITIATING NEAR THE TROUGH IN THE WATCH AREA AND STORM
MOTION 10 TO 15KTS. RECENT HEAVY RAINS AND ADDITIONAL RAIN EXPECTED
SUPPORT THE WATCH.

MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SHOULD COOL TO THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S.
MAX TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD RANGE FROM 65 IN EASTERN COLORADO TO
75 IN THE EASTERN FA.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 243 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

MONDAY NIGHT...TROUGH SHOULD BE TRANSITIONING EASTWARD AND WITH
SUBSIDENCE BUILDING IN BEGIN TROUGH AXIS SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

PROGRESSIVE ZONAL/WESTERLY PATTERN ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS THE
CENTRAL US...WITH SW FLOW DEVELOPING BY THIS WEEKEND. TREND WILL BE
ACTIVE AND A WARMER WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY.
LONGWAVE TROUGH REDEVELOPS ACROSS THE WESTERN US WITH 60S/70S
RETURNING FRIDAY-SUNDAY. WHILE GUIDANCE IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON
LARGER SCALE PATTERN TRENDS THERE IS A LOT OF VARIANCE IN EVOLUTION
OF SMALLER SCALE FEATURES (ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEKEND). DESPITE
THIS...PRECIP SIGNAL REMAINS HIGH WITH ALL GUIDANCE AND HIGHER
CHANCE/LIKELY POPS CONTINUE TO BE WARRANTED.

WEAKER SHORTWAVES WILL HELP AID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS...WITH SURFACE TROUGH ACTING AS FOCUS FOR
INITIATION. STRONGER LIFT WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY THIS
WEEKEND WITH COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTH THROUGH THE REGION. MODELS
CONTINUE TO SHOW 50S TO NEAR 60F TD VALUES AND MODERATE TO HIGHER
INSTABILITY EACH AFTERNOON PERIOD. WEDNESDAY IN PARTICULAR LOOKS TO
HAVE A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WITH 2000-3000 J/KG OF CAPE AND
GOOD BULK SHEER ADVERTISED BY GFS/NAM ALONG/EAST OF TROUGH AXIS
ALONG CO/KS BORDER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 500 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

FOR BOTH TAF SITES...A VFR/MVFR MIX IN CONDITIONS IS EXPECTED FOR
THE FORECAST PERIOD. BKN040-060 WILL GIVE WAY TO BKN-
OVC010-030...MAINLY BETWEEN 05Z-15Z MONDAY. DURING THIS TIME 3-6SM
IN RW/FOG POSSIBLE...OTHERWISE 01Z-09Z...TSRA POSSIBLE. LOOKING
FOR BEFORE 05Z TRW ENDING FOR KGLD...AND 04Z-09Z FOR KMCK. WINDS
SE 10-20KTS THRU 04Z-06Z...THEN LGT/VRB AROUND 5-6KTS...BECOMING
NW 10-20KTS BY 14Z-16Z MONDAY.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT MDT TONIGHT FOR COZ090-091.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JN
SHORT TERM...FS
LONG TERM...DR
AVIATION...JN



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