Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 050517
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1017 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 506 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

PLACED A MENTION OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR TONIGHT. MODELS
SHOWING THE LEFT EXIT OF THE 500MB JET MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA TONIGHT BEHIND THE 500MB TROUGH AXIS. COINCIDING WITH
THE LEFT EXIT IS ISENTROPIC LIFT AT THE 280K LAYER. CROSS SECTIONS
NEAR THE KS/NE BORDER SHOW A LAYER FROM ROUGHLY 850-675MB WHERE
THE LIFT AND MOISTURE ARE LOCATED FOLLOWING THE LEFT EXIT REGION.
IN THIS LAYER THETA-E LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 0C/KM...SO ANY AMOUNT
OF LIFT SHOULD GENERATE SOME SNOWFALL. HOWEVER ONLY THE NEAR TERM
MODELS ARE CATCHING ONTO THIS.

WITH ONLY A COUPLE MODELS CATCHING ONTO THIS THERE IS SOME DOUBT
IF MEASURABLE SNOW WILL ACTUALLY FALL WHICH LED TO THE RATHER LOW
PRECIP. CHANCES GIVEN THE DECENT LIFT/MOISTURE/THETA-E LAPSE
RATES. AM ONLY EXPECTING AN INCH OR LESS OF SNOWFALL MAINLY NORTH
OF HIGHWAY 36. DUE TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES THE SNOW WILL BE VERY
FLUFFY WITH VERY LITTLE LIQUID EQUIVALENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1257 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

WITH NO PRECIPITATION AND MINIMAL CLOUDS EXPECTED...THE MAIN
FOCUS IS ON WARMING TEMPERATURES.

TEMPERATURES WILL WILL REMAIN COLD OVERNIGHT AND START OUT COLD
FIRST THING EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH READINGS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS. WIND CHILLS WILL BE BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
WITH VALUES AS LOW AS -10 TO -13 ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS OF COLORADO.

BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON THE COLD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION MOVES INTO THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PLAINS WITH A LEE TROUGH DEEPENING ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE. SURFACE WINDS TURN WESTERLY AND THE UPPER RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES BEGINS TO EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 134 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

A LARGE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SHIFT BRINGS A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THIS EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD. LARGE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ONCE AGAIN BUILD OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES. AS THIS HAPPENS...NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME IS FORCED EAST IN
ADDITION TO A WEAKENING TREND WITHIN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES
TROUGH. UNDER THIS TYPE OF PATTERN...WARMER WEATHER IS BASICALLY
ASSURED. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW WARM WILL WE GET AND HOW QUICKLY?
A FEW MEMBERS OF FORECAST GUIDANCE ARE BEING ADVERSELY AFFECTED BY
SNOW COVER OVER EAST COLORADO. SNOW SHOULD QUICKLY MELT TODAY AND
TOMORROW AND FEEL THAT GUIDANCE WAS TOO COOL OVER EAST COLORADO
INITIALLY. HAVE MADE A WARM ADJUSTMENT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...WEATHER PARAMETERS LOOK QUITE BLEAK
THROUGH THE EXTENDED. A COUPLE CLIPPER SYSTEMS PASS THROUGH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW BUT SHOULD NOT LEAD TO ANY PRECIP CHANCES OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS. MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY ON THEIR SOLUTIONS BEYOND
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THE GFS INDICATES ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVING SOUTH WITH PRECIPITATION AHEAD OF A PASSING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE. MEANWHILE...THE EUROPEAN MODEL INDICATES A SIGNIFICANT
RIDGE PERSISTING WITH NO SIGNS OF ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT. THE EUROPEAN
DOES INDICATE AN INCOMING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BUT DELAYED A FEW
DAYS COMPARED TO THE GFS. A GLANCE AT THE GEFS ENSEMBLES MUDDLES
THINKING EVEN MORE AS THERE IS A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF FORECAST
SPREAD BEYOND TUESDAY. OVERALL...CONFIDENCE TOWARDS THE END OF NEXT
WEEK IS LOW BUT THE NEXT CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE SHOULD COME BEYOND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1015 PM MST WED MAR 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE TAFS. NARROW BANDS OF FLURRIES TO
LIGHT SNOW MAY MOVE OVER KMCK IN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. AM NOT
EXPECTING ANY VISIBILITY OR CEILING RESTRICTIONS. CEILINGS WILL
DROP TO LOW VFR BUT NOT ANY LOWER. OTHERWISE LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JTL



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