Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 311941
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
141 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 141 PM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE PATTERN ACROSS
WESTERN US THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...WITH NW FLOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. WV IMAGERY SHOWS MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME EXTENDING
FROM THE BAJA PENINSULA ACROSS THE FOUR CORNER AND INTO THE HIGH
PLAINS WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND RIDGE
INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND THROUGH THE NW FLOW ALONG THE MISSOURI
RIVER VALLEY. AT THE SURFACE...MEAN SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS
NORTHERN COLORADO INTO CENTRAL NEBRASKA...WITH WEAK FLOW AND A
SECONDARY WEAK TROUGH AXIS/SURFACE CONVERGENT ZONE ALONG THE KS CO
BORDER EXTENDING SOUTH INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KS.

MODELS CONTINUE TO UNDERESTIMATE TDS  WITH 60-70F TD VALUES REPORTED
MOST OF THE DAY...FINALLY BEGINNING TO FALL IN OUR NW. RESULT IS
MUCH HIGHER CAPE VALUES THAN PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED WITH RAP ANALYSIS
SHOWS A SHARP GRADIENT OF SB CAPE FROM 250 J/KG IN NORTHEAST
COLORADO TO 3000 J/KG OVER OUR SOUTHERN CWA. CONSIDERING THE MOIST
BL LAYER AND FAVORABLE CAPE PROFILES OVER MOST OF THE AREA IT WON`T
TAKE MUCH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP. WITH ONLY WEAK HEIGHT FALLS
THIS AFTERNOON/TONIGHT AND MODELS SHOWING ALMOST NO ACTIVITY
INITIATING OVER OUR CA (DESPITE LOW CINH)...I AM FAVORING ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM MENTION FOR NOW. AS WITH LAST NIGHT...VERY LITTLE STORM
MOTION (0-6KM 0-5KT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA) WILL RESULT IN
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. IF CELL MERGERS OCCUR AND ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP A COLD POOL OR OUTFLOW WE COULD SEE BETTER COVERAGE. LOW
CONFIDENCE AT THIS POINT.

SATURDAY...PATTERN WILL BE VERY SIMILAR AS TODAY WITH SEASONAL HIGHS
(UPPER 80S-MID 90S). GUIDANCE ACTUALLY INDICATING SUBSIDENCE WILL BE
IN PLACE...SO WHILE HIGH CAPE VALUES/DECENT MOISTURE PROFILES WILL
LIKELY SET UP OVER THE CWA ONCE AGAIN CONFIDENCE IN ANY INITIATION
IS EVEN LOWER THAN TODAY. I DECIDED TO KEEP THUNDERSTORM MENTION
OUT FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 209 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

THE UPPER LEVEL SETUP FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD CONTINUES TO BE
RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CONUS ALONG WITH A TROUGH TO THE EAST. THE
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD WITH ITS AXIS LIKELY OVER THE
AREA BY THURSDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD AS
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND OVER THE
AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS REGAINS ITS SHAPE LATE TUESDAY AND PROGRESSES EASTWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TOWARDS THE PLAINS AS A CLOSED LOW APPROACHES
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. WEAKER DISTURBANCES LOOK TO MOVE ALONG THE
RIDGE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...GENERATING PRECIP CHANCES ONCE AGAIN.

WARM TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE FOR THE TRI STATE REGION WITH HIGHS
IN THE UPPER 80S TO MID 90S FOR THE DURATION OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. LOWS LOOK TO BE IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1119 AM MDT FRI JUL 31 2015

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH
KGLD AND KMCK. LOW CONFIDENCE OVERALL IN AVIATION FORECAST AS A
RESULT OF POOR MODEL PERFORMANCE REGARDING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
OVER BOTH TERMINALS. I COULD SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY IF HIGHER DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO LINGER...HOWEVER
AT THIS POINT THERE IS NO MODEL SUPPORT SO I LEFT MENTION OUT.
OTHER AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
CURRENTLY ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED WITH BETTER CHANCES
IN EASTERN COLORADO...SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS DURING THIS
UPDATE.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...DR


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