Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 231946
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
146 PM MDT FRI SEP 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 145 PM MDT Fri Sep 23 2016

Large upper low near SLC is organizing a surface low in north-
central Colorado which will ultimately move into NE/SD overnight.
Resultant tight pressure gradient will continue to generate gusty
south winds to 40 mph through the afternoon...diminishing
somewhat this evening to SSE 20-30. Later tonight a surge of
cooler air will arrive as winds shift to northwest.

Main concern/uncertainty in the short term is the initation and
evolution of convection later this afternoon and overnight. Wind
shear is strong but instability not all that great. Forecast cinh
values remain fairly impressive this evening east of the Colorado
border so storm coverage is somewhat uncertain. Models struggle
to produce much in the way of storms this evening, especially for
areas further south, but as main shortwave swings out into Kansas
overnight models end up generating a band of showers and
thunderstorms after midnight. Thinking main threat is strong wind
gusts, but if an elevated supercell develops isolated large hail
cannot be ruled out.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 153 AM MDT Fri Sep 23 2016

The long term period will be primarily dry with chances for
precipitation on Thursday. On Monday, the trough that impacted the
CWA over the weekend will be east of the region. Behind it will be
a ridge that will move in over the area. While the ridge moves
in, models agree that a closed low will form over the southwestern
states. Towards the end of the period that low pressure will move
up and merge in with the upper level flow. This is what will
potentially lead to precipitation chances Thursday. Current model
runs show the GFS to be a little slower and the EC a little
faster. So timing is still questionable at this time.

High temperatures are expected to slowly increase from the 60s on
Monday to the mid 80s to low 90s on Thursday. Early Monday and
Tuesday mornings will continued to be monitored for a potential
Frost Advisory. Patchy frost has been added to Monday morning.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Saturday afternoon)
Issued at 1140 AM MDT Fri Sep 23 2016

VFR both TAF sites through the period. Surface winds will
gust 30-35 kts from the south this afternoon and 20-30 kts from
the SSE this evening before shifting to NW 10-20 overnight.
Thunderstorms will develop in eastern CO and approach the TAF
sites this evening with best timing 00-04Z for KGLD and 04-08Z for
KMCK. Kept precip as VCTS both sites due to uncertainty of storm
coverage.


&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...DLF



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