Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 100827
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
227 AM MDT THU JUL 10 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 210 AM MDT THU JUL 10 2014

UPDATED ZONES AND GRIDS FOR THE EXPIRATION OF WATCH 408.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1152 PM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 408 HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 3 AM CDT...2
AM MDT. STRONG TO SEVERE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
WITH HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS RECENTLY REPORTED AT MCCOOK
NEBRASKA. ELEVATED INSTABILITY AND A LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SUPPORT STRONG TO SEVERE ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
AS THE MAIN THREAT FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER COUPLE MORE HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1229 PM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

A CHANCE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY...OTHERWISE A HOT AND
BREEZY DAY. UPPER LEVEL FLOW REMAINS NORTHWESTERLY AS A RIDGE OVER
THE GREAT BASIN SLOWLY PROGRESSES EASTWARD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
TONIGHT. AT LOW LEVELS SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BRING IN WARM AIR...WITH
A RETURN TO THE 90S ACROSS THE REGION.

TODAY...SUNNY AND BREEZY MOST OF THE DAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WERE
ALREADY GUSTING TO 30 MPH THIS MORNING AND EXPECT THE GUSTY WINDS TO
CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. WARMER TODAY...850MB TEMPS
GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 20S C TODAY...SUPPORTIVE OF HIGHS IN THE
LOW TO MID 90S. SOME GUIDANCE ACTUALLY KEEPS HIGHS IN THE UPPER
80S...BUT THINK MOST PLACES WILL MANAGE TO HIT AT LEAST 90 TODAY.
SKIES WILL REMAIN SUNNY FOR MOST OF THE DAY...HAVE SOME INCREASED
CLOUD COVER ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
ASSOCIATED WITH SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT MOVED SOUTH THROUGH FAR
WESTERN NEBRASKA EARLIER THIS MORNING AND HAVE SINCE GENERALLY
DISSIPATED.

STILL HAVE SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT INITIATION OF STORMS TODAY.
SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN COLORADO APPEARS ON TRACK TO
POSSIBLY SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN COLORADO AND
WESTERN KANSAS...ESPECIALLY AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD. MORNING GUIDANCE
STILL PERSISTENT WITH A STUBBORN CAP AROUND 700MB PRODUCING 100-150
J/KG CIN THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD PREVENT DEVELOPMENT WITHOUT
SUFFICIENT FORCING. STILL...BESIDES THE CAP SOUNDINGS ARE FAVORABLE
FOR STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MLCAPE VALUES WILL BE AROUND
1500 J/KG LATE THIS AFTERNOON. LOW AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE STEEP. WIND PROFILES ARE SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH 30 TO 40 KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR
AVAILABLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON. STORM MOTIONS OF LESS THAN 10 KTS
COULD ALSO LEAD TO THE POSSIBILITY OF FLASH FLOODING.

TONIGHT...EXPECT SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS TONIGHT...WITH THE BEST
CHANCE EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. AS LOW LEVEL JET DEVELOPS OVERNIGHT THIS
COULD SUSTAIN DEVELOPMENT AS STORMS MOVE EASTWARD. EXPECT STORMS TO
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR MOST LOCATIONS. AS STORMS CLEAR OUR
SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY
OUT OF THE SOUTH.

TOMORROW...WARMER AND BREEZY. MID-LEVEL RIDGE MOVES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH ANOTHER LOW/SFC TROUGH DEVELOPING IN
NORTHEAST COLORADO. A NUMBER OF WEAK MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS RIDGE...WHICH WILL CREATE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR TERRAIN-BASED STORMS OFF THE CHEYENNE RIDGE AND
PALMER DIVIDE. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THE BEST CHANCE FOR STORMS
WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE CWA...BUT CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS LATE IN THE DAY. CONDITIONS WILL NOT BE FAVORABLE FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH LITTLE CAPE /LESS THAN 500
J/KG SBCAPE/ AND AROUND 20 KTS EFFECTIVE SHEAR. 850MB TEMPS REACHING
THE LOW 30S C...WHICH UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WILL LEAD TO HIGHS IN
THE MID 90S...PERHAPS NEAR 100 SOUTH OF HIGHWAY 40.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 227 AM MDT THU JUL 10 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO RETROGRADE
WESTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE CONUS...AS AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH BEGINS TO SLIDE INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST FROM CANADA ON
SUNDAY.  THE FORECAST AREA WILL BE POSITIONED IN A TRANSITION ZONE
BETWEEN THE UPPER RIDGE AND TROUGH THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.  AS THE
POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH SWINGS INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST STATES
THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER AND MID LEVEL JET
STREAM SHOULD STAY WELL TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA.  MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HINTS OF STRONGER LOWER LEVEL JETS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS IN COMBINATION WITH A SURFACE STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED OVER
THE AREA ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHICH COULD BRING ENOUGH FORCING FOR
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  ONCE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS MOVES THROUGH KANSAS ON TUESDAY...COOLER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
PLAINS WITH A LACK OF INSTABILITY ALOFT.  THERE STILL COULD BE A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER IN SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP...BUT EXPECTING MOSTLY
RAIN SHOWERS WITH A FEW WEAKER THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

SURFACE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR AVERAGE FOR SUNDAY AND
MONDAY...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S TO LOWER
90S.  COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE
REGION ON TUESDAY...BRINGING TEMPERATURES TO ABOUT 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S.  850 MB TEMPERATURES FOR SOME
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 50S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH WOULD INDICATE THAT TEMPERATURES COULD EVEN
DROP A BIT LOWER INTO THE UPPER 60S.  MOS GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
INDICATING A COOLING TREND OVER THE PAST FEW RUNS STARTING FOR THE
TUESDAY TIME FRAME...AND HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD CONTINUE TO DROP
FURTHER.  FUTURE MODEL RUNS MAY HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON THE EXACT
TEMPERATURE RANGE...HOWEVER...TRENDS DEPICT A BREAK FROM THE WARM
WEATHER AREA WIDE FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1134 PM MDT WED JUL 9 2014

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM HAS DEVELOPED NEAR KMCK. MAIN THREAT IS LARGE
HAIL. STORM SHOULD PASS WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR BUT ADDITIONAL
DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING NEARBY. MAY NEED TO AMEND IF STORMS STAY
CLOSE. ONCE STORMS PASS...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN. A FEW
PIECES OF GUIDANCE FORECAST STRATUS TO DEVELOP AT KMCK TONIGHT.
DID NOT BITE AS THERE ARE CONFLICTING SIGNALS WITHIN MODEL
GUIDANCE. SOUTH WINDS BECOME GUSTY AT KMCK ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW.
KGLD COULD BECOME GUSTY AGAIN TOO DEPENDING ON LOCATION OF THE LEE
TROUGH.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...FS
SHORT TERM...JJM
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH





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