Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 200401

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
901 PM MST Sun Nov 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 204 PM MST Sun Nov 19 2017

A short wave trough embedded in the northwest flow aloft moves
across the region overnight. Only an increase in high clouds that
transitions the region is expected with skies to clear out again
during the day on Monday. In the wake of the exiting upper trough,
the northwest flow strengthens somewhat which should assist in
moving the surface trough along the front range across the
forecast during the afternoon. On the back side of the surface
trough, northwest winds will increase and become gusty across
mainly the northwest sections of the forecast area. High
temperatures should also be in the upper 60s to around 70 degrees
during the afternoon while dewpoints in the dry downslope flow
could drop into the single digits across mainly far eastern
Colorado and the eastern Colorado border region. RH values in the
single digits are possible as a result during the early to mid
afternoon on Monday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM MST Sun Nov 19 2017

The weather pattern will continue to be dry as the forecast area
remains under the influence of the upper level ridge.  A couple
short wave troughs will move along the pariphary of the ridge.
However the only influence these short wave troughs will have is a
brief window of cooler temperatures as a cold front moves through
Tuesday and again Friday night.  After the front Friday night, high
temperatures will not rebound as quickly due to the upper level low
over the eastern CONUS keeping the ridge slighly further west.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 900 PM MST Sun Nov 19 2017

For KGLD and KMCK, vfr conditions through the period. Both
terminals will see southwest winds 7-12kts (higher at KGLD)
through about 17z then gust to 20kts or so through 21z from the
west-southwest. After 22z winds slowly veer to the west then
northwest at speeds under 10kts. Cloud cover will be limited to
cirrus level through about 03z then decrease to about 10k ft.


KS...Fire Weather Watch Monday afternoon for KSZ001.

CO...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon
     for COZ252.

NE...Fire Weather Watch from Monday morning through Monday afternoon
     for NEZ079.



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