Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 272325
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
425 PM MST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 1205 PM MST SAT DEC 27 2014

WEST/SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 MPH OR LESS TONIGHT WILL BACK TO THE SOUTH
LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND DECREASE UNDER 5 MPH AS ELONGATED SFC
LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE.

A CLEAR SKY EXPECTED EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.

LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...MAYBE A FEW
AROUND ZERO...WITH HIGHS SUNDAY IN THE UPPER 20S TO MID 30S.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 256 PM MST SAT DEC 27 2014

THE FORECAST FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST ARE
THE COLD TEMPERATURES AND POSSIBILITY OF A COUPLE DAYS WORTH OF
ONGOING LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED DURING THE FIRST PART OF THE WORK WEEK
NEXT WEEK.

AS THE STRONGER JET STREAM WINDS TURN THE CORNER AROUND THE BASE
OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...AND MAKE THEIR
WAY THROUGH THE INTERMOUNTAIN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES REGION SUNDAY
NIGHT...THE ENTIRE JET SAGS SOUTH AND CUTS ACROSS THE CENTER OF
THE UNITED STATES. THIS OPENS THE DOOR FOR COLD AIR TO SLIDE SOUTH
ACROSS THE PLAINS FOLLOWING A COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO COOL THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HIGHS BETWEEN
5-10 DEGREES AND OVERNIGHT LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT OF ZERO TO 10 BELOW.
EVEN THOUGH WINDS REMAIN LIGHT...THESE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL
PRODUCE WIND CHILL VALUES BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING IN THE -15 TO -25 OR SLIGHTLY COLDER RANGE THAT WILL
REQUIRE SOME KIND OF HIGHLIGHT. ALSO ROUGHLY DURING THIS TIME AS
COLD AIR PUSHES INTO THE REGION AND THE JET STREAM RESIDES
OVERHEAD...MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST REGION BETWEEN THE DAY ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TIMING OF THIS SNOWFALL IS WHERE SOME OF THE
MORE SIGNIFICANT MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE CURRENTLY SHOWING UP. THE
GFS IS BEGINNING SNOW ABOUT ONE PERIOD EARLIER THAN THE NAM AND
ECMWF WHILE THE NAM AND ECMWF MAY BE HANGING ONTO THE SNOW A
LITTLE TOO LONG. THE GENERAL FEELING IS THE GFS IS INITIATING THE
SNOW IN THE UPSLOPE AREA OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN A LITTLE
EARLY...WHILE NONE OF THE MODELS HAVE DONE AN ADEQUATE JOB YET OF
RESOLVING THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVES THAT ARE EXPECTED TO MIGRATE
THROUGH THE FLOW AS IT EVOLVES ACROSS AND EAST OF THE ROCKIES
AHEAD OF THE LOW CENTER THAT IS DEEPENING AND CUTTING OFF OVER THE
FAR SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES. HAVE THEREFORE GONE WITH A BROAD-
BRUSHED COMPROMISE OF SOLUTIONS IN THE GRIDS THAT ARE ON THE COLD
SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH AN EARLIER INITIATION OF SNOW AND HAVE POPS
ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF THE CHANCE CATEGORY SINCE THERE IS ENOUGH OF
AGREEMENT IN THE MODELS TO INSPIRE SOME SORT OF CONFIDENCE IN
SEEING AT LEAST MINIMAL ACCUMULATING SNOW FROM MONDAY THROUGH THE
DAY ON TUESDAY. SNOW AMOUNTS ARE NOT QUITE HIGH ENOUGH TO WARRANT
A STATEMENT IN THE FUTURE...BUT IT WILL BEAR FURTHER REVIEW TO SEE
IF SNOW AMOUNTS AND COLD TEMPERATURES COULD EVENTUALLY BE COMBINED
INTO SOME TYPE OF WINTER WEATHER STATEMENT.

IT LOOKS LIKE CONDITIONS DRY OUT AND THE COLD SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE AREA MOVES OUT OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW MOVING OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES
AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS BY LATE FRIDAY. DEPENDING UPON
THE PATH THIS LOW CENTER TAKES...SNOW AMOUNTS FORECAST ACROSS THE
AREA COULD VARY CHANGE QUITE A BIT BETWEEN NOW AND THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 425 PM MST SAT DEC 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR BOTH TAF SITES THRU FORECAST PERIOD.
SKC THRU 14Z-16Z SUNDAY...THEN SCT120-150. WINDS WSW 5-10KTS FOR
KGLD AND FOR KMCK...WESTERLY NEAR 10KTS THRU 16Z SUNDAY THEN SOUTH
AROUND 10KTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...LOCKHART
AVIATION...JN



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