Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 291111

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
511 AM MDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 200 AM MDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Widely scattered thunderstorms are moving southeast across the
area overnight in response to a shortwave trough topping the Four
Corners ridge. These will move out of the area early this morning.
There will be a lull in precipitation chances through most of the
day before the next shortwave arrives later this afternoon with
scattered thunderstorms redeveloping and continuing through
tonight. Instability will be lower compared to yesterday although
deep layer shear remains good at around 40kts. Severe threat
appears to be marginal at best with only limited coverage due to
weak forcing.

Upper ridge nudges northward on Saturday which will keep
precipitation chances to a minimum. There will be slight chances
associated with any weak shortwave coming over the ridge in the
afternoon or evening hours...mainly in eastern portions of the
area. Instability and shear continue to be supportive for a severe
threat if anything can get going. Temperatures will be near to
slightly below normal.

More of the same on Sunday with the ridge holding strong but with
weak shortwaves coming through cannot completely remove slight
thunderstorm chances in the afternoon and evening hours. Deep
layer shear will however be noticeably weaker so severe threat
will be lower for Sunday. Temperatures will warm to above normal.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 200 AM MDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Thunderstorm chances persist throughout the extended period as
multiple shortwave disturbances impact the area. Hotter temperatures
return early next week.

On Monday, flow aloft is somewhat zonal with an area of upper high
pressure over the southern Plains. A closed low moves into the
Pacific Northwest and continues along the Canadian border through
Tuesday. The low sharpens the ridge over the region early next week.
Conditions should be drier Monday and Tuesday with the ridge being
the dominating feature. However, monsoonal moisture does appear to
filter north towards the High Plains, so thunderstorms cannot be
ruled out.

The ridge progresses east on Wednesday as the closed low nears the
northern Plains. At the surface, a cold front approaches the region,
leading to better precipitation chances Wednesday night
into Thursday.

The work week starts out with temperatures in the 90s Monday through
Wednesday as high pressure persists over the area. Cooler highs,
mainly in the 80s, are forecast on Thursday with the cold front
nearby. Low temperatures remain in the 60s to low 70s.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday morning)
Issued at 508 AM MDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Patchy fog this morning may briefly reduce visibilities to MVFR.
Otherwise...VFR expected at both KGLD and KMCK through the TAF
period. Isolated afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms will
develop with another shortwave trough moving across the area...but
coverage is expected to be limited so will not include in the
terminal specific TAFs at this time. There is a chance for low
ceilings and patchy fog to develop overnight Friday/early
Saturday morning.


.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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