Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 282357

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
557 PM MDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This afternoon through Monday)
Issued at 237 PM MDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Mid/Upper level trough remains in place near four corners region,
with ridge across the southeastern US. Between these features a
long plume of Pacific moisture is orientated south to north,
with embedded (weak) mid/upper level shortwaves rotating into the
plains. Near our CWA one weak shortwave (responsible for
showers/sprinkles in our east earlier) is currently exiting to the
northeast. Another shortwave trough is upstream over the Texas
Panhandle, and a slightly stronger mid level shortwave trough is
over northeast Colorado. At the surface a lee trough is in place
over eastern Colorado, and secondary surface trough axis extends
eastward through our southern CWA. Weak convergence along these
features will act as possible initiation points for
showers/thunderstorms through this evening.

This afternoon-evening: Greater uncertainty exists in coverage,
location, and timing of showers/thunderstorms due to the chaotic
nature of forcing aloft. Instability is currently weaker than this
time yesterday (less than 1000 J/KG ML CAPE) and a stronger CAP has
been slower to erode (though it it showing signs in clearing areas
near surface boundaries). We are still looking at good potential
moisture availability (1-1.2" PWATs) and moisture advection. As
instability increase weak pockets of forcing aloft should be enough
for shower/thunderstorm development. Latest guidance is now showing
better chances tonight with shortwave over TX panhandle and limited
coverage in our west in the afternoon. I couldn`t rule out
development elsewhere, so I decided against completely removing

Monday: As the upper low shifts slightly better forcing is
depicted and a stronger precip signal in our east through the
day Monday (particularly late Monday afternoon). Due to the nature
of the pattern I as still a little hesitant to raise PoPs out of
the chance category until we see more consistency. As upper low
shifts east air mass aloft will decrease, and depending on timing
of cloud cover/precip we may trend cooler than guidance is
currently indicating. For now consensus is favoring slightly below
normal highs in the lower 80s for most locations in our CWA.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 202 PM MDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Weak upper low situated over southwestern Colorado Monday night
will continue to slowly weaken and push northeast on Tuesday. A
surface high will build westward at the same time and eventually
move into the central High Plains. Forcing will be strong enough
on Tuesday afternoon/evening to allow thunderstorm development
along a very weak shortwave and theta-e boundary. We could see
strong to marginally severe thunderstorms; however, widespread
severe is not expected. Very heavy rain will be possible with the
stronger thunderstorms and will combine with relatively slow storm
motion along the boundary; all of this will lead to increased
flash flood risk. This system will remain nearly stationary on
Wednesday with increased PoPs across the region, especially in the
eastern portions of the CWA.

H5 low pressure pushes onshore in southwestern British Columbia on
Thursday and will speed up the pattern a bit as we head into the
end of next week. The boundary that was stationary through
Thursday will push off to the east and allow the region to dry out
as we head into Friday. Temperatures will be in the upper 70s to
lower 80s through Thursday with middle to upper 80s on Friday.
Lows will fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s through the
extended period.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 548 PM MDT Sun Aug 28 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period at MCK and GLD
with scattered thunderstorms developing and moving across the
region after 18Z.


.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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