Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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664
FXUS63 KGLD 250754
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
154 AM MDT Thu May 25 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 137 PM MDT Wed May 24 2017

Latest upper air analysis shows a ridge building onto the Plains.
Water vapor imagery showed dry air accompanying the ridge.  At the
surface a trough was moving in from the west.  Behind the trough
south winds were turning to the west.

This evening the surface trough will washout along the western
border.  Meanwhile the light south winds will become breezy as the
surface pressure gradient tightens.  With dew points in the 40s and
a warmer air mass overhead, lows will be around 50.

Thursday cloud cover will increase from the west ahead of an
approaching upper level short wave trough.  A weak cold front will
move in and stall along Highway 40.  To the west a dry line will
develop over the southwest portion of the forecast area during the
afternoon. Meanwhile storms will move in from the west, with some
isolated activity developing along the dry line, as the upper level
short wave trough continues toward the forecast area. Lift is quite
strong and deep with this trough. However the environment still
looks stable except for a narrow corridor just ahead of the short
wave trough.  Under the short wave trough there is almost no CAPE
but the environment will become saturated.  There is 30-40kt of deep
layer shear and up to 2000j/kg of mixed layer CAPE, but the CINH is
very high.  At this time the severe threat does not look to be that
impressive, but the potential is there for a brief window large hail
up to half dollar size and damaging wind gusts.  This looks to be a
more favorable setup for general thunderstorms with light to
moderate rainfall.


.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 153 AM MDT Thu May 25 2017

There are chances for rain showers and storms over the Tri-State
region during the second half of the extended period. Sunday and
Monday, for the most part, will be a lull period as dry air will
take over the region.

Northwest upper level flow will continue to dominate over the
Central/High Plains through the period. So Tuesday and Wednesday
will have chances for precipitation due to shortwave troughs moving
over the region both days and frontal boundaries positioned near
the CWA. Instability and shear will be present as well, which
indicates that some severe storms may develop. With these days being
at the end of the period, it is hard to determine the exact impacts
and timing. Model guidance is showing similar ideas for these days
so the likelihood that precipitation will occur is higher at this
time. Will continue to monitor as the middle of next week
approaches.

Temperatures during the period will stay consistent and hover in the
70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1124 PM MDT Wed May 24 2017

VFR conditions will persist with mostly clear skies through the
remainder of the night and Thursday morning. LLWS will continue
through about sunrise with stronger south winds near the top of
the inversion layer in advance of the surface trough that moves
through the central high plains region on Thursday. Scattered
thunderstorms will develop over the higher terrain to the west
and move east across the plains during the afternoon and early
evening. GLD and MCK TAF sites could see thunderstorms between
about 22Z through 03Z. with clearing skies after 03Z.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...CLT
AVIATION...LOCKHART



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