491
FXUS63 KGLD 101113
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
513 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms will be possible daily through the end of the work week
  at least with the main threat of damaging winds.

- Remaining mild throughout with highs around the low to mid
  90s.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 230 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Shortwave trough will eject out of the central Rockies today
providing synoptic scale lift. At the surface, a cold front will
make its way across the forecast area this morning and
afternoon. Widely scattered showers may accompany the front in
the morning as it moves through Colorado/adjacent areas of
Kansas and Nebraska. At 21z, the front will be located roughly
along a McCook to Tribune line. Scattered storms should develop
along and ahead of the front at around that time and move east
through the remainder of the afternoon. Instability and shear
parameters are not particularly impressive, but DCAPE is
favorable and could see some sporadic damaging wind gusts and
small hail with those storms. Further west, another cluster of
storms will be coming out of Colorado by late in the afternoon.
The post frontal environment is only weakly unstable with about
20-30 kts of shear, but DCAPE is favorable here as well. CAMs
show some wind gusts in excess of 75 mph with initial
development in Colorado, with gradual weakening of the winds as
the associated cold pool moves east through the evening. If the
higher winds materialize, could see some blowing dust as well
given that the hot and dry conditions yesterday may have primed
the top soil.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 1235 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Tonight, much like the last few days, storms will fire up to our
west around 21-22z. These storms will attempt to move through
the area, but short range models are generally in agreement that
these storms will weaken as they move eastward due to the lack
of shear today. The main threats with these storms will be
large hail for our westernmost areas this afternoon and early
evening thanks in part due to the higher lapse rates in that
area.

Later in the evening, a cluster of storms is expected to
graze our area as it moves across our northeasternmost counties.
There is still some uncertainty on the timing and generally
whether theses storms will influence our area or slide a little
further east, but generally we expect our easternmost locations
to see the potential for severe weather late tonight. Generally,
the main threats associated with these storms will be damaging
winds (60+mph). For this reason, we are outlooked in a Marginal
Risk for Severe Weather with the Slight Risk area just to our
east and north. The timing for these later storms will be
generally around or after 00z and should move through our area
by around 4z timeframe. MSW

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1235 PM MDT Wed Jul 9 2025

Thursday, a shortwave upper level system will be moving through
the area, enhancing rain and storm chances. Conditions tomorrow
look favorable for severe weather as this system moves through
from west to east starting around 21-22z and progressing
eastward through the evening hours. Generally, the biggest
limiting factor right now is shear as it is a big weaker than
expected. And instability is marginal, but adequate. As this
system moves through, the main threats will be severe damaging
winds 60-75mph and a lesser threat of hail is forecast. We are
outlooked in a Slight Risk of Severe Weather to reflect these
conditions. This system will be fairly progressive, so any
flash flooding concerns should be quite localized.

Friday through the weekend, weak zonal flow and a potential weak
shortwave could be moving through the area, enhancing rain
chances. Right now, there is a lot of model uncertainty in the
timing of the rain or any severity. Friday, at least, the
general consensus is for strong to severe storms to fire up in
eastern CO and progress through our area in the afternoon and
evening hours. We are outlooked in a Marginal Risk of Severe
Weather Friday mainly for the damaging wind concern. Beyond
Friday, the general pattern remains quite a bit uncertain, more
than usual. But generally expect daily potential for strong to
severe storms to be moving through the area this weekend. The
main threats with these storms would be damaging winds
(50-60mph) and large hail. MSW

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 510 AM MDT Thu Jul 10 2025

VFR expected to prevail through about mid afternoon at both KGLD
and KMCK. Scattered afternoon storms will develop along a cold
front with a low probability of impacting KMCK before quickly
moving off to the east. Storms coming out of Colorado and
Nebraska late this afternoon and evening have better chances of
impacting both terminals with gusty outflow winds and brief
reductions in visibility in rain.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...Williams
LONG TERM...Williams
AVIATION...024