000
FXUS63 KGLD 131743
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1143 AM MDT THU MAR 13 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT THU MAR 13 2014

WINDS WERE A LITTLE STRONGER FURTHER NORTH AND WEST THAN WAS
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. SO INCREASED THE WINDS PER THE LATEST RAP
WHICH DOING THE BEST ON THE CURRENT WIND FIELD. ALSO RAISED MAXES A
LITTLE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE AREA. DEWPOINTS WERE ALSO
DROPPING TO BELOW WHAT WAS EXPECTED IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
AREA. BECAUSE OF THESE CHANGES...IT REQUIRED A CHANGE IN THE RED
FLAG WARNING WHICH WILL DISCUSSED BELOW IN THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 350 AM MDT THU MAR 13 2014

A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

THE MAIN SHORT TERM FORECAST CONCERNS ARE THE VERY DRY CONDITIONS
AND BREEZY WINDS COMBINING TO PRODUCE AN ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THIS
AFTERNOON.

WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW TURNS SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY AND BECOMES GUSTY
THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER WESTERLY FLOW BRINGS A SHORT WAVE
TROUGHS THROUGH THE REGION LATE TODAY AND OVERNIGHT. THE AIR MASS
IS EXTREMELY DRY...SO SUNNY SKIES WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE 60S AND LOWER 70S. TEMPERATURES 5-10 DEGREES COOLER ARE
EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AS A COOLER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN
BEHIND A WEAK FRONT.

CLOUDS INCREASE LATE IN THE DAY ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT DIVES SOUTH THROUGH THE ROCKIES ON
SATURDAY IN A PATTERN THAT IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED. THE
INCREASINGLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN IS ALREADY PRODUCING SOME
INCONSISTENCIES IN MODEL SOLUTIONS BY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.
MODELS BREAK OUT SOME PRECIPITATION THAT BEGINS AS RAIN LATE
SATURDAY AND TRANSITIONS TO LIGHT SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT AS IT BEGINS
TO DISSIPATE. NO ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 244 AM MDT THU MAR 13 2014

A FAIRLY CALM WEATHER PATTERN WILL SET UP ACROSS THE TRI-STATE AREA
DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...LEADING NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND LITTLE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY AS A WEATHER SYSTEM
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE EXITING THE HIGH
PLAINS. A LARGE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD
ONLY MAINTAIN A BRIEF GRIP ON THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE BREAKS DOWN THE NORTHERN PART OF THE RIDGE. FROM
MONDAY NIGHT ON...MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT WITH THE
HANDLING OF THIS DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER...A FEW TRENDS INDICATE THAT
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD BE A CLIPPER...ONLY HAVING A NOTICEABLE
DIFFERENCE ON OUR WEATHER FOR TUESDAY. THIS CLIPPER WILL PROVIDE THE
ONLY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION DURING THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME DRY AIR OVER THE REGION THAT WILL NEED
TO BE OVERCOME BEFORE PRECIPITATION IS ABLE TO REACH THE GROUND. CR
INITIALIZATION PROCEDURE REMOVED POPS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AND
THOUGHT THIS SEEMED APPROPRIATE DUE TO THE POOR MODEL GUIDANCE AND
DRY AIR IN PLACE.

FORECAST GUIDANCE INDICATES A BRIEF COOL DOWN FOR TUESDAY BEFORE
WARMER...ABOVE NORMAL WEATHER RETURNS BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.
FORECAST GUIDANCE VARIES ON THE TEMPERATURE FIELDS THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST SO HAVE NOT MADE ANY LARGE CHANGES DUE TO A
LOWERED CONFIDENCE THAN USUAL. WOULD LEAN TOWARDS A WARMER FORECAST
IF FORCED TO LEAN ONE WAY OR ANOTHER AS IT SEEMS THE EUROPEAN
MODEL...THE MUCH COOLER SOLUTION...IS AN OUTLIER IN ITS WEATHER
PATTERN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1141 AM MDT THU MAR 13 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THE TAF PERIOD AT GLD AND MCK. LIGHT
TO BREEZY SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TODAY...BECOMING LIGHT AND
WESTERLY TONIGHT WHEN A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
REGION. BEHIND THE TROUGH NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN AT 10 TO
12KTS...THEN WEAKEN TOWARDS FRIDAY MORNING. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR
EXCEPT FOR A FEW HIGH CLOUDS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 1136 AM MDT THU MAR 13 2014

HAD TO EXPAND RED FLAG WARNING A LITTLE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST.
FIRST THE DEWPOINTS NEAR THE WESTERN END OF THE CURRENT FLAG
WARNING HAVE DROPPED TO BELOW WHAT WAS EXPECTED. NOT SURPRISING
CONSIDERING WHAT SOUNDINGS INDICATE WHAT WE SHOULD BE MIXING TOO.
ALSO IT IS GOING TO BE SLOWER WARMER THAN PREVIOUS THOUGHT.
BECAUSE OF THE INCREASED MIXING THE AREA OF STRONGER WINDS IS
FURTHER NORTH AND WEST PLUS THE WINDS IN THE AREA OF THE INITIAL
FLAG WARNING LOOK TO BE A LITTLE STRONGER. SO ON THIS UPDATE
EXPANDED THE WARNING INTO RAWLINS AND SHERMAN COUNTIES IN KANSAS
AND CHEYENNE AND KIT CARSON COUNTIES IN COLORADO.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR
     KSZ002>004-013>016-027>029-041-042.

CO...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR COZ253-254.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...LOCKHART
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...JJM
FIRE WEATHER...BULLER