Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 262026
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
126 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 125 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

NEXT SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT
COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE WILL SPREAD LIGHT SNOW FROM EASTERN
COLORADO TO PARTS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA THROUGH
FRIDAY. BEST CHANCES WILL BE BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON...SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70 AND WEST OF HIGHWAY 25. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED IN THOSE AREAS...WITH AN INCH OR LESS ELSEWHERE. THESE
AMOUNTS ARE UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA SO DO NOT PLAN ANY HIGHLIGHTS
FOR SNOW. SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH BY LATE
MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON...WHICH COULD PRODUCE
SOME PATCHY BLOWING SNOW IN OPEN COUNTRY...BUT OVERALL THREAT
APPEARS TOO LIMITED TO WARRANT ANY KIND OF HIGHLIGHT FOR BLOWING
SNOW EITHER. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
AND HIGHS ON FRIDAY IN THE TEENS. WIND CHILL READINGS WILL BE CLOSE
TO ADVISORY CRITERIA OF 15 BELOW MAINLY IN EASTERN COLORADO...AND
THIS APPEARS TO BE THE ONLY HAZARD WHICH WARRANTS A HIGHLIGHT. IF
TEMPERATURES DROP A FEW DEGREES LOWER THAN FORECAST IT COULD BE
NECESSARY IN THE COLORADO BORDER COUNTIES OF NORTHWEST KANSAS AS
WELL BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE ATTM.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 254 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

AN UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WHILE THE SOUTHERN
BRANCH OF THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS IN PLACE EXTENDING FROM THE FAR
SOUTHWEST U.S. TO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. THE UPPER LOW
CENTER THAT HAS BEEN TRAVELING SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST IS KICKED
EAST AS AN OPEN WAVE OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AHEAD OF A LOW PRESSURE
AREA DIVING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WITH A STRONG JET PUSHING
SOUTH ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK AS A NUMBER OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS LIFTING OUT OF THE MAIN
TROUGH TRANSITION THE REGION IN ADVANCE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH
THAT EVENTUALLY MOVES EAST OF THE ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/EARLY
THURSDAY.

EXPECT THE PRIMARY SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE TO BE PUSHED UP ALONG THE
ROCKIES AND EXTENDING EAST ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
WITH THE OCCASIONAL PUSH NORTH INTO THE FORECAST AREA. HAVE KEPT
TEMPERATURES COLDER THAN AVERAGE THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS A
RESULT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 20S AND 30S AND LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO TEENS. HAVE ALSO BROAD BRUSHED AREAS OF SLIGHT CHANCE TO
CHANCE POPS STRETCHING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA EACH PERIOD FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A RESULT OF THE FRONTAL ZONE BEING
IN THE VICINITY WITH THE SHORT WAVE IMPULSES ALSO STREAMING ACROSS
THE AREA. DO NOT EXPECT ANY SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AT THIS
TIME. CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW IN THE TIMING AND SPECIFIC SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS OVER SPECIFIC LOCATIONS SINCE EVEN SMALL SMALL DIFFERENCES
IS THE POSITION OF FEATURES COULD RESULT IN LARGE DIFFERENCES IS
THE PROBABILITIES OF RECEIVING PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1022 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

AT KGLD...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HOURS ALTHOUGH MID LEVEL DECK WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN.
TONIGHT...LIGHT SNOW WILL SPREAD OUT OF EASTERN COLORADO WITH
CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS LIKELY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. LIFR POSSIBLE FRIDAY MORNING
WITH 1/2SM VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW.

AT KMCK...VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. SNOW WILL LIKELY STAY
SOUTH OF KMCK...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AND MAY APPROACH
MVFR CEILINGS AT TIMES LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 11 AM MST FRIDAY FOR COZ091-092.

NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JSL
AVIATION...024


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