Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 200944

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
344 AM MDT Sat May 20 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 241 AM MDT Sat May 20 2017

The primary short term forecast concern is the possibility
isolated strong to severe storms late in the day on Monday.

Rain showers will lift out of the forecast area today as the large
low pressure system lifts through the central plains states
towards the Great Lakes region. Conditions will dry out briefly from
this afternoon through Sunday morning as surface high pressure
moves into the region and temperatures warm. A few thunderstorms
are possible Sunday afternoon and evening as a weak disturbance
moves east of the Rockies. A chance of thunderstorms returns
again late Monday as a cold front moves through the region and a
short wave trough rotates around the main upper low over the Great
Lakes region and sweeps across the central high plains. A stronger
upper trough is expected to follow the initial short wave trough,
sweeping across the region Monday night. A few storms late Monday
through Monday evening may be strong to severe with strong to
damaging winds and hail.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 225 AM MDT Sat May 20 2017

For Tuesday, precipitation chances taper off as an upper trough
exits the region. Meanwhile, surface high pressure pushes into the
High Plains and temporarily cools temperatures. Conditions dry out
in time for Tuesday night when meridional flow develops aloft. Dry
weather continues on Wednesday and Thursday when an upper ridge
builds into the area. The ridge and downslope flow support a warming
trend through the end of the work week. Precipitation returns to the
forecast Thursday night and Friday as the ridge progresses east,
disturbances pass through the westerly flow aloft, and a cold front
approaches the High Plains.

Temperatures warm throughout the extended period, from the 60s on
Tuesday to the upper 70s/low 80s on Thursday and Friday. Low
temperatures follow the trend, warming from the upper 30s/low 40s
Tuesday night to the low/mid 50s Thursday night.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1113 PM MDT Fri May 19 2017

IFR continues to be the prevailing conditions at both KGLD and
KMCK due to widespread rain showers. Ceilings will be gradually
lowering through the overnight, then gradually lifting through
Saturday morning and afternoon. Showers will slowly work their way
northward through the overnight and end Saturday morning. VFR
should return to KGLD by early Saturday afternoon and to KMCK by
mid to late Saturday afternoon.




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