000
FXUS63 KGLD 271711
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1111 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1007 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

MINOR UPDATE TO POPS TO DELAY UNTIL MID AFTERNOON AND LIMIT
MENTION TONIGHT TO SW PART OF CWA WITH GUIDANCE TRENDING FURTHER
SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 409 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

FORECAST PROBLEM WILL BE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY TOWARD
THE END OF THIS PERIOD. SATELLITE SHOWING THE FLOW BECOMING MORE
AMPLIFIED FROM THE PACIFIC INTO NORTH AMERICA. CHANGE TO A WESTERN
RIDGE AND EASTERN TROUGH IS UNDERWAY AS DEEP UPPER SYSTEM BEGINS TO
MOVE INTO THE GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHERN RIDGE IS MOVING/REDEVELOPING
FURTHER WEST AND NORTH. MOISTURE PLUME CONTINUES TO MOVE AROUND
THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE AS A NORTHWEST FLOW
DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA. COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH/SOUTH OF THE
AREA.

AT MID LEVELS...AS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS...SATELLITE
AND UPPER AIR SHOW THAT THE GFS...UKMET AND CANADIAN ARE DOING THE
BEST. THE NAM AND SREF WERE NOT DOING WELL. AT LOW LEVELS...THE
ECMWF WAS DOING A LITTLE BETTER AT THE SURFACE. GFS WAS DOING A
LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF AND THE NAM ON THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL
FIELD.

TODAY/TONIGHT...NEWEST MODEL DATA SUPPORTS THE ONGOING PRECIPITATION
FORECAST. THE BRUNT OF THE LIFT AND PRECIPITATION WILL BE TO OUR
SOUTH AND WEST. IF ANYTHING THE NEWER DATA SUPPORTS GOING A LITTLE
DRIER THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF TONIGHT. HOWEVER AS BEEN THE CASE THE
LAST FEW NIGHTS...MESOSCALE INFLUENCES HAVE PUSHED CONVECTION
FURTHER NORTH AND EAST. THE TREND FOR AN INCREASE IN LIFT AND CHANCE
OF PRECIPITATION AFTER MIDNIGHT STILL CONTINUES SO THE POPS FOR THAT
TIME LOOK GOOD. SO DID NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THE PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THIS PERIOD.

SHOULD NOT BE A LOT OF CLOUD COVER TODAY ONCE THE PRECIPITATION TO
OUR SOUTH MOVES OUT. COOLER AIR MASS IS BEING ADVECTED IN PLUS WILL
HAVE UPSLOPE WINDS. AGAIN NEWER GUIDANCE IN VERY CLOSE AGREEMENT TO
THE CURRENT FORECAST AND ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. WITH MOST OF
THE CLOUD COVER OVER THE SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE AREA TONIGHT...
DID LOWER MINS MORE IN THE NORTHEAST PORTION WHERE LITTLE TO NO WIND
IS FORECAST.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...FOR THE MORNING KEPT THE TREND OF SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS DUE TO OVERNIGHT SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND RESULTING
PRECIPITATION. FOR THE AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...NEWER MODEL GUIDANCE IS
KEEPING THE MAIN LIFT MORE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WITH ONLY MINOR
LIFT REACHING OUR WESTERN PORTION...MOSTLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE
COLORADO BORDER. SO REDUCED THE POPS AND PULLED THEM FURTHER WEST.

DURING THE DAY WITH THE MAIN LIFT...CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION
IN THE WEST...KEPT THAT AREA COOL OR COOLED THEM OFF A LITTLE. OVER
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA...WARMED UP MAXES AND MAYBE NOT ENOUGH
CONSIDERING THAT AREA SHOULD BE UNDER RIDGING AND HAVE LITTLE TO NO
CLOUD COVER.

TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...INCREASING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION STILL ON
TRACK FOR THIS PERIOD. MID LEVEL LOW GETTING CLOSER...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 18Z. MOISTURE AND LIFT INCREASE THROUGH 18Z AND THE GOING
POPS LOOKED GOOD AND MADE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS. MID LEVEL LOW...
LIFT AND MOISTURE GET BETTER IN THE AFTERNOON WITH THE SOUTHWEST
PORTION HAVING THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION. GOING FORECAST
LOOKED IN GOOD SHAPE CONSIDERING THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND MADE NO
CHANGES.

MID LEVEL LOW AND LIFT ALONG WITH MOISTURE GETS MUCH BETTER DURING
THE NIGHT. NEWER GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORTS THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA HAVING THE POTENTIAL OF GETTING A LOT
RAINFALL. STILL HAVE LIKELY POPS IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION BUT DID
RAISE THEM...ESPECIALLY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE.
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AND DID RAISE QPF
AMOUNTS IN THAT AREA.

COOLED OFF TUESDAY MAXES SOME...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN PORTION...
DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION...AND UPSLOPE WINDS
WITH THE WARMEST MAXES IN THE EAST AND NORTHEAST LOCATIONS. HOWEVER
COULD SEE THE NEED TO LOWER MAXES EVEN MORE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
WEST...WHERE THICKER CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL BE. IT IS POSSIBLE
THAT MANY LOCATIONS MAY NOT GET OF THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 204 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN QUIET FOR THE LONG TERM
PERIOD AS A DOMINANT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP MAIN JET FLOW WELL
TO THE NORTH OF THE TRI STATE AREA. HOWEVER...MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO INDICATE AMPLE PROFILE MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY.  PRECIPITABLE WATER
AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1.25 AND 1.5 INCHES WILL BE PRESENT AREA WIDE AS
LOWER LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS BELOW NORTHERLY FLOW ABOVE 700 MB. THE
COLDER AIR ADVECTION ABOVE 700 MB IN COMBINATION WITH MOISTURE
ADVECTION IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BRING WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY EVENING AS WINDS
BELOW 800 MB SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST...WHICH SHOULD END WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. WARM AIR ADVECTION
AND A ZONE OF CONFLUENCE OVER THE FORECAST AREA COMBINED WITH SOME
CAPE ALOFT FRIDAY AFTERNOON COULD SPARK SOME THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IN EASTERN COLORADO INTO FRIDAY EVENING. A SURFACE
BOUNDARY JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL BRING CHANCES
FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY FOR LOCATIONS SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 70.

THE COOLER AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS WILL BRING BELOW AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH HIGHS
RANGING FROM THE MID 70S TO THE LOWER 80S. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND WITH WARM AIR RETURNING ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE ABOUT
NORMAL IN THE LOW TO MID 60S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1111 AM MDT SUN JUL 27 2014

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND
KMCK. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN
COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...AND WHILE I CANT
COMPLETELY RULE OT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM AT KGLD...CONFIDENCE
IS LOW THIS ACTIVITY WILL MAKE IT WITHIN THE VICINITY OF THE
TERMINAL. WINDS EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD MAY OCCASIONALLY GUST
FROM THE EAST-NORTHEAST TO 20KT DURING THE FIRST HOUR OR SO OF THE
TAF PERIOD...WINDS WILL EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND
5KT AND THEN SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND 10KT MONDAY MORNING AS
SURFACE HIGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DR
SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...DR