Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 310547
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1147 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 152 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

FORECAST PROBLEMS WILL BE FOG/STRATUS LATER TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES/LOCATION ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. SATELLITE
SHOWING THE FLOW HAS CHANGED LITTLE IN THE LAST 24 HOURS WITH A
BLOCKY AND AMPLIFIED PATTERN FROM THE PACIFIC INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC.

AT JET LEVEL...MODELS WERE CLOSE BUT THE NAM/SREF/CANADIAN WERE
DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE ECMWF/GFS. AT MID LEVELS...THE GFS
AND CANADIAN WERE DOING A LITTLE BETTER THAN THE UKMET AND ECMWF.
RAP...ECMWF AND SREF WERE DOING BEST ON THE SURFACE WIND AND
PRESSURE FIELD. ALTHOUGH THEY WERE DOING WELL WITH THE DEWPOINTS.
THE NAM...GFS...CANADIAN...AND SREF WERE DOING WELL ON THE LOW LEVEL
THERMAL FIELD.

FOR TONIGHT...WITH NO LIFT...MOISTURE OR INSTABILITY...FORECAST WILL
REMAIN DRY. VISIBILITIES THIS AFTERNOON HAVE BEEN REDUCED DUE TO
SMOKE AS A RESULT OF IT BEING MIXED DOWN. SO HAVE SMOKE IN THR0UGH
MID EVENING.

FOG AND STRATUS WAS FURTHER WEST THIS MORNING THAN WHAT WAS
INDICATED YESTERDAY. EVEN THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS THIS MORNING
WERE NOT CATCHING. BELIEVE THE POTENTIAL FOR FOG AND STRATUS IS NOT
ONLY GOOD TONIGHT BUT BELIEVE IT WILL BE EVEN FURTHER WEST. THIS DUE
TO THAT MOISTURE NOT GOING ANYWHERE WITH SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH
SOUTHEAST WINDS DEVELOPING OVER MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER MODELS ARE
NOT VERY EXCITED ABOUT THIS RIGHT NOW BUT IT IS LOOKING LIKE THEY
MAY NOT HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS. SO INSERTED FOG INTO THE EASTERN
HALF DURING THE LAST HALF OF THE NIGHT. MINS WILL BE WARMER DUE TO
MORE WIND.

FOR MONDAY...INITIAL CONCERN WILL BE HOW MUCH OF THE STRATUS AND FOG
WILL BE AROUND. LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BURN OFF RATHER QUICKLY...BY
MID MORNING. JET STAYS TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA ALTHOUGH IT IS
MUCH CLOSER THAN THE PREVIOUS DAY.

QUESTION THEN BECOMES WHERE DOES INCOMING BOUNDARY SETUP WITH THIS
BEING THE KEY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. MODELS ARE NOT ONLY
INCONSISTENT ON THIS BUT DIFFER A GREAT DEAL ON HOW MUCH IF ANY
DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR IN THE AREA. AT THIS TIME BOUNDARY IS OVER
THE WESTERN QUARTER OF THE AREA AS A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE COMES OVER
THE TOP OF IT. THERE IS MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE...ESPECIALLY AT LOW LEVELS. LIFT LOOKS FINE BUT JUST ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY THAT AT THIS TIME WILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS
IN THE AFTERNOON. OF NOTE STORM MOTIONS WILL BE SLOW AND ALONG THE
FRONT. SO SOME TRAINING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE HOTTEST TO THE EAST OF THE BOUNDARY. LATEST
GUIDANCE HAS RAISED MAXES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA. SO RAISED MAXES ACCORDINGLY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 211 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY THE TRI-STATE AREA WILL HAVE A FEW
CHANCES FOR RAINFALL AS NUMEROUS DISTURBANCES MOVE THROUGH THE
SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND OVER THE AREA. THE MAJORITY OF THE
HIGHER CHANCES OCCUR DURING THE WEEKEND.

MONDAY NIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE
AREA FROM THE WEST.  THE STRONGEST LIFT WILL REMAIN WEST OF HIGHWAY
27...ALONG WITH THE LOWEST CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICITS.  AT THE
SURFACE A TROUGH WILL EXTEND SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
WESTERN HALF OR SO OF THE AREA.  WITH THE STRONGEST LIFT FROM THE
UPPER LEVEL FEATURE REMAINING TIED TO THE SURFACE TROUGH...AM
THINKING STORMS WILL PRIMARILY DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH.
THERE MAY BE SOME ISOLATED TO POSSIBLY SCATTERED STORMS OVER EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO AWAY FROM THE SURFACE TROUGH NEAR THE BASE OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...BUT THE BEST STORM COVERAGE WILL BE ALONG THE
SURFACE TROUGH.  IN ADDITION THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL
STRENGTHEN DURING THE EVENING NEAR THE SURFACE TROUGH...FURTHER
AIDING IN STORM DEVELOPMENT.  WITH STORM MOTION TO THE NORTHEAST AT
20 MPH OR SO...TRAINING STORMS ARE LIKELY ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH.

DURING THE LATE EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE UPPER
LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST.  EXPECT THE STORM
ACTIVITY TO FOLLOW AS WELL...STILL REMAINING TIED TO THE SURFACE
TROUGH THAT WILL MOVE LITTLE DURING THE NIGHT.

SINCE MODELS HAVE DELAYED THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH AND MOVED THE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST...HAVE THE MOST
CONFIDENCE THE FAR WESTERN PART OF THE AREA WILL SEE MEASURABLE RAINFALL.
UNCERTAINTY INCREASES TO THE EAST SINCE MOST MODELS KEEP THE BEST
LIFT WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST OR EVEN OUT OF
THE AREA TO THE NORTHWEST. MAY BE TOO FAR EAST WITH THE RAINFALL
CHANCES...BUT DID NOT AGREE WITH THE IDEA OF STORMS REMAINING
NORTHWEST OF THE AREA SINCE MOST MODELS HAVE THE SURFACE TROUGH
OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA. TIME WILL TELL IF THIS WAS THE
CORRECT APPROACH.

TUESDAY WILL BE DRY BEHIND THE EXITING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE
TROUGH.

TUESDAY NIGHT ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA FROM THE WEST.  AS WITH THE ONE MONDAY NIGHT THE BEST LIFT
WILL BE CONFINED TO EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...WEAKENING AS THE SHORT
WAVE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ALMOST
EVERY DAY FOR VARIOUS PARTS OF THE AREA AS THE SOUTHWEST UPPER LEVEL
FLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE SMALL SCALE TROUGHS OVER THE AREA.  CHANCES
FOR RAINFALL INCREASE FOR THE WEEKEND AS STRONGER UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH. AT THE SURFACE A TROUGH OVER THE
AREA WILL ALSO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON EACH DAY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK AND THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1147 PM MDT SUN AUG 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT BOTH SITES.
THIS MORNING...AN AREA OF FOG SHOULD DEVELOP PRIMARILY ACROSS
CENTRAL KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. MOISTURE ADVECTION MAY ALLOW LIGHT
FOG TO OCCUR AT KMCK BUT THIS LIKELY WILL NOT REDUCE VISIBILITIES
TO MVFR. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE A SHARP BOUNDARY ONCE AGAIN
BETWEEN DENSE FOG AND NO FOG SO THIS BEARS WATCHING. LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR SEEMS LESS LIKELY AS THE LATEST VAD WIND PROFILE
INDICATES A 40 KT JET WITH 10 KT SURFACE WINDS. THEREFORE...WILL
NOT MEET LLWS CRITERIA. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES SOMEWHAT IN DOUBT
TOMORROW AS CONVECTION SHOULD BE WEAKENING AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE
COLORADO BORDER. FOR NOW...REFRAINED FROM PLACING THUNDER IN TAFS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BULLER
LONG TERM...JTL
AVIATION...RRH


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