Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 241729
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1029 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

RAISED TODAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES A DEGREE OT TWO IN SOME AREAS
BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. GIVEN 850 TEMPS OF ONLY 2-3 DEGREES C AND
CLOUD COVER STARTING TO FILL IN ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES...THINK HIGH TEMPS OF 45-50 DEGREES SHOULD HOLD UP OKAY.

TRIMMED POPS/SNOW SHOWERS BACK OVER WESTERN KANSAS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON BUT KEPT FOR EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THAT BETTER LIFT AND CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
CLOSER TO THE FRONT RANGE AND I-25 CORRIDOR AS SHORT WAVE TROUGH
DROPS SSE THROUGH THE FLOW...BUT SMALL CHANCE SOME SNOW SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP FURTHER EAST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 251 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

TUESDAY A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA.  WEAK
ISENTROPIC LIFT DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING LIFT OVER YUMA COUNTY
INTENSIFIES AND SOUNDINGS SATURATE TO WITHIN 4.5K FT. OF THE
GROUND. THEREFORE HAVE PLACED A MENTION OF SNOW IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING BEFORE THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH
FILLS AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. WITH WET BULB ZERO HEIGHTS
BEING BELOW THE GROUND THE PRECIP. WILL BE ALL SNOW. DURING THE
AFTERNOON A SURFACE TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA CAUSING THE WINDS TO TURN TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND IT.

TUESDAY NIGHT A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  DUE TO
VERY LITTLE LIFT ACCOMPANYING THE FRONT WILL LEAVE THE FORECAST DRY
FOR NOW.

WEDNESDAY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA AND THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE LAMINAR AS AN 850MB RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER THE AREA.
A SURFACE HIGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA PUSHING THE COOLER AIR MASS
EAST OF THE AREA.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN BECOMES
ZONAL FRIDAY.  ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY.  THE
FORECAST WILL BE DRY THROUGH SUNDAY DUE TO THE LACK OF SIGNIFICANT
FORCING AND MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM TO THE LOWER 60S BY
FRIDAY AND THEN COOL TO THE MID AND UPPER 40S SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD
FRONT. MIN TEMPERATURES WILL COOL TO THE UPPER 20S/AROUND 30
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS COOLING TO THE LOWER 20S SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1028 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT BOTH TRAF SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ENHANCED BY MIXING INTO STRONGER
WINDS ALOFT TODAY...AND GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING THIS EVENING. AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
MOVE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH BROKEN MID CLOUDS
AROUND FL080. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEST OF KGLD TAF
SITE THROUGH 00Z BUT NOT EXPECTED AT TERMINAL.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...FS/JTL
AVIATION...DLF


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