Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 230752
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
152 AM MDT TUE AUG 23 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 220 PM MDT Mon Aug 22 2016

A weather disturbance is forecast to move across much of the area
from the southwest later this afternoon through much of the
overnight hours. Some gusty outflow winds and locally heavy rainfall
will be the primary threats. Breezy southerly winds expected to
continue through midnight before slowly decreasing and veering to
the southwest and west (along/west of the CO/KS border) ahead of an
approaching front. Low temperatures should range from the mid 50s to
near 60 in far eastern Colorado with low to upper 60s east of the
border.

For Tuesday the back end of expected precipitation will just about
clear the far east and northeast parts of the area around sunrise
with a mostly sunny sky the rest of the day. There may be an
isolated thunderstorm along the front generally centered from
Trenton to Goodland and Tribune during the afternoon. High
temperatures in the upper 80s to around 90 west with low to mid 90s
elsewhere expected.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 152 AM MDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Rising temperatures are expected during the extended period as
unsettled weather continues, with thunderstorm chances almost every
period.

On Friday, upper high pressure is located over the southeastern
CONUS while a trough persists over the northwestern portion of the
country. The trough advances from Montana and Wyoming towards the
northern Plains Friday night, bringing the region its best chance of
precipitation during the extended. West to southwest flow continues
into the weekend, filtering monsoonal moisture northward towards the
High Plains. Occasional disturbances pass through the flow near the
area, generating thunderstorm chances. Guidance indicates a
shortwave advancing over the High Plains Sunday night, which may
bring another decent shot at precipitation. Drier conditions are
anticipated on Monday as upper level ridging builds further north.

Temperatures gradually increase throughout the extended as a ridge
amplifies over the CONUS. Highs start out in the upper 70s to low
80s on Friday and rise into the upper 80s for Monday. Lows remain
generally in the mid 50s to mid 60s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1123 PM MDT Mon Aug 22 2016

VFR conditions should prevail through the TAF period, with a
temporary drop to MVFR likely at KMCK early in the TAF period due
to passing thunderstorm activity. I couldn`t rule out vis dropping
to around 2 sm at KMCK if heavy rain were to impact the terminal,
however confidence was too low to include IFR during this update.
Winds should slowly diminish early in the TAF period as a surface
trough slides southeast over both terminals with winds generally
below 12 kt after 10-12Z. Wind direction should shift from the
south to the southwest tonight, then to the northwest and north
Tuesday afternoon.


&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...DR


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