Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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284
FXUS63 KGLD 240819
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
219 AM MDT SUN JUL 24 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1018 PM MDT Sat Jul 23 2016

With line of storms decaying just west of the Tri-State Area have
lowered rainfall chances for the evening. Does look like some
showers/t-storms may move in overnight accompanying the upper
level short wave trough.

UPDATE Issued at 848 PM MDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Increased chances for rainfall over East Central Colorado given
the line of showers/t-storms to the west. Am not too sure how far
east the line will last given the upper level short wave trough
accompanying it remains just west of the Tri-State Area until
after midnight. Therefore extrapolated out in time a few hours
where the line of storms should be, then have chances for
rainfall declining after that as the environment becomes more
stable.

As the short wave trough moves east into the Tri-State Area after
midnight kept chances for rainfall going over the west and
northwest given the nose of the low level jet over that part of
the area.

UPDATE Issued at 707 PM MDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Allowed heat advisory to expire. Hill City is still meeting
criteria, but all other sites in the advisory area have fallen
below criteria. Hill City should cool below criteria within this
hour.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 110 PM MDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Isolated to widely scattered thunderstorms will continue through
tonight and Sunday. Synoptic scale forcing remains rather nebulous
with only weak shortwave trough rotating around the anticyclone
centered over the Four Corners. A surface trough located from near
Norton to Leoti this afternoon may be the focus for initiation but
so far little evidence seen in visible satellite imagery and short
term models not very supportive either. Better chances may come
tonight with scattered convection coming out of Colorado. Storm
organization will be limited by weak deep layer sheer but cant
rule out an isolated hail/wind threat with stronger storms. As has
been the case lately, expect storms to persist through the night
followed by a lull Sunday morning...then gradually increasing
again Sunday afternoon. Temperatures on Sunday will be slightly
cooler with upslope surface winds...so will let the heat advisory
expire at 00z tonight with no plan to reissue for Sunday.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 215 AM MDT Sun Jul 24 2016

At the beginning of the extended period the upper level pattern becomes
more amplified over the northern Rockies as the high pressure center
aloft retrogrades towards the west over the desert southwest region.
This will result in a longwave trough to deepen and move eastward
across the plains as the high builds. A few short wave disturbances
are expected to move along this upper level flow in a Northwest to
Southeast trajectory. This will produce chance of showers and
thunderstorms throughout the period, with Friday night having the
highest possibility of precipitation.

Along with the possibilities of precipitation throughout the
long term, the Tri-State region will continue to see temperatures
in the near normal to somewhat above normal range.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1117 PM MDT Sat Jul 23 2016

VFR conditions forecast for the TAFs. Northwest winds behind
either the outflow boundary at KGLD or the cold front at KMCK will
shift to the northeast a few hours later. Sunday the winds will
continue to turn to the east and will become breezy during the
late morning/afternoon. The best chance for thunderstorms will be
during the late afternoon and evening over East Central Colorado,
well west of the TAF sites.


&&

.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...BW
AVIATION...JTL



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