Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 191900

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
100 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 1055 AM MDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Southerly return flow will strengthen late this afternoon and
evening as a lee trough deepens in advance of a shortwave trough
lifting northeast from the Desert SW to the 4-corners region. A
southerly breeze will persist overnight in assoc/w a relatively
tight MSLP gradient on the eastern periphery of the lee trough
in western KS. Expect highs this afternoon in the upper 70s to
lower 80s. With southerly flow /warm advection/ overnight, expect
lows Fri morning to be warmer than previous days, ranging from
the mid 40s in eastern CO (where the MSLP gradient will be weaker)
to mid/upper 50s east of Hwy 83 (where the MSLP gradient will
remain tight).

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 100 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 2017

Friday night-Saturday night...a cold front is currently forecast to
move swiftly across the area around or shortly after midnight Friday
night with northwest winds increasing into the 20 to 30 mph range
with higher gusts per mos guidance and previous forecast. On
Saturday could see gusts to 40 mph. Nice 3 hour pressure rises of 5-
7mb too all supportive of higher winds. Will have to watch for
isolated thunderstorms around 12z Saturday from Hill City to near
Gove where some elevated instability exists with low cin in an area
of 850-500mb moisture ahead of the front. Right now have silent pops
going. Could also see some stratus ahead of the front by midnight.
Low temperatures Friday night in the low 40s east to mid 50s west.
High temperatures Saturday in the mid 50s west to mid 60s east. Lows
Saturday night in the low to mid 30s.

Sunday...upper level heights slowly increase as longwave trough and
cold front continue east and high pressure centered off the
California coast into Mexico slightly strengthens. Afternoon
temperatures should peak in the mid 60s to low 70s with lows in the
upper 30s to mid 40s.

Monday...latest long range models showing a cold front moving south
across the area during the afternoon. GFS 850mb temperatures in line
with advertised highs in the low to mid 70s but any deviation on
fronts arrival will change these values either warmer or cooler.
Will likely see breezy to perhaps windy conditions behind the
front, nudged up winds a bit. Low temperatures in the mid 30s to
low 40s.

Tuesday...should see continued breezy conditions during the day with
850mb winds in the mid 30kt range. 850mb temperatures drop into the
5C (east) to 11C (west) range supporting afternoon temperatures in
the mid 50s to low 60s. Low temperatures in the low to mid 30s. expecting extensive sunshine during the day with a
clear sky overnight ahead of an approaching upper trough and cold
front. 850mb temperatures and MEX guidance would support highs in
the 70s vs official forecast in the mid to upper 60s. Low
temperatures generally in the mid 30s to low 40s.

Thursday...long range models bring an upper trough and increase in
clouds through the area. 6 hour pressure rises in the 7-13mb range
move in by 18z remaining in the 6-10mb area through 00z. This would
suggest at least breezy north winds during the day. 850mb
temperatures fall during the day and could see sfc temperatures do
the same. Timing is everything for temperature forecast and this far
out wont make any changes to advertised highs int he upper 50s to
mid 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1055 AM MDT Thu Oct 19 2017

VFR conditions will rule through the TAF period. Southerly winds
will increase from 10-15 knots this morning to 20 knots with
gusts up to 25-30 knots by late afternoon and early evening
(21-00Z), and remain breezy overnight. Southerly winds will
strengthen to 20-25 knots with gusts to 35 knots by the end of the
TAF period (18Z Fri). Southerly wind gusts as high as 40-45 knots
cannot be ruled out late Friday afternoon and evening, primarily
east of Highway 83.




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