Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 290816
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
216 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1036 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

TRYING TO DETERMINE WHERE THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL BE HAS BEEN
CHALLENGING TONIGHT. WETBULB ZERO HEIGHTS WERE INITIALLY
CONSIDERED FOR WHERE THE SNOWFALL WOULD OCCUR...BUT THIS INCLUDED
TEMPERATURES NEAR 40 DEGREES AND DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40. CONFINING SNOWFALL TO DEW POINTS OF 33 DEGREES OR LESS
SEEMED MORE REASONABLE SINCE THIS IS WHAT HAPPENED WITH THE LAST
SNOWFALL.

THE ENVIRONMENT OVER EAST CENTRAL COLORADO WILL HAVE NEAR ZERO
THETA-E LAPSE RATES WITH VERY DEEP STRONG LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC
ZONE FOR A FEW HOURS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO SNOWFALL RATES
IN THE INCH PER HOUR RANGE. HOWEVER THE WARM GROUND SHOULD CAUSE
THE ROADWAYS TO MELT A DECENT AMOUNT OF THE SNOWFALL. FAR WESTERN
KIT CARSON COULD HAVE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AROUND 5 INCHES BY LATE
MORNING DUE TO THE PROLONGED SNOWFALL ON TOP OF THE FEW HOURS OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL LATER TONIGHT. AM EXPECTING THE SNOW TO
TRANSITION TO RAIN TOWARD THE STATE LINE AS DEW POINTS WARM TO
CLOSE TO 40 DEGREES. THE SNOW WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO EAST
CENTRAL COLORADO FOR MOST OF THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE MOVING EAST
DURING THE EVENING AS THE LOWER DEW POINTS MOVE EAST BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

ONE WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCE LIFTED NORTH ACROSS THE AREA WITHIN THE
PAST FEW HOURS PRODUCING SOME SPRINKLES. TEMPERATURES WERE IN THE
MID 40S TO LOW 50S WITH WINDS FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST AT SPEEDS
OF 10 MPH OR LESS.

FOR TONIGHT PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES INTO THE HALF INCH (WEST)
TO NEAR ONE INCH (EAST) RANGE AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE
AREA THAT BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED AS IT SLOWLY LIFTS INTO THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA FROM SOUTHERN UTAH. PLENTY OF LIFT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLACE. AM EXPECTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO
INCREASE QUICKLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BY MID TO LATE EVENING
WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN BY MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT.
CURRENTLY HAVE AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.10-0.15 INCHES FROM TRENTON TO
NORTON NORTH WITH UP TO A HALF INCH ELSEWHERE. AROUND/AN HOUR BEFORE
SUNRISE 850MB TEMPERATURES APPROACH 1C ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/3-1/2 OF
KIT CARSON AND YUMA COUNTIES OF COLORADO. THIS COULD/SHOULD PRODUCE
A MIX OR CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW. ACCUMULATIONS OF AN INCH OR SO
ARE POSSIBLE. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 30S FOR FAR EASTERN
COLORADO...MID 30S TO LOW 40S ELSEWHERE. WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST AT
10 TO 20 MPH.

FRIDAY...PRECIPITATION WATER VALUES REMAIN IN THE HALF INCH TO ONE
INCH RANGE AS THE UPPER LOW LIFTS NORTH-NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST
COLORADO. SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIFT REMAIN TO PRODUCE A
CONTINUATION OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. 850MB TEMPERATURES AROUND 1C
OR SO SLOWLY EXPAND EASTWARD DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING HOURS
WITH A FEW MODELS SHOWING ZERO DEGREE 850MB TEMPS MOVING INTO THE
WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA. THE RAIN MIXING WITH OR CHANGING OVER TO
SNOW LINE EDGES A BIT FURTHER EAST REACHING PERHAPS A LINE FROM
BENKELMAN TO GOODLAND AND CHEYENNE WELLS. HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF SNOW
IS IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF A FEW INCHES
POSSIBLE...HIGHEST ACROSS THE WESTERN 1/2 OF YUMA AND WEST/NORTHWEST
CORNER OF KIT CARSON COUNTY. ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF
0.70-0.80 INCHES POSSIBLE. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOW
40S FOR FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW TO UPPER 40S ELSEWHERE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT FRI APR 29 2016

THE LONG TERM BEGINS WITH A WEAK LOBE OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
APPROACH THE CWA ON MONDAY. SLIGHT CHC TO CHC POPS WILL ACCOMPANY
THE LOW AS IT MOVES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO FILL INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS LATE
TUESDAY AS THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EXITS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST. THIS
RIDGE WILL BUILD IN AND BECOME QUITE AMPLIFIED AS WE HEAD INTO THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE END
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND AS THE
RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. LOOK FOR HIGHS TO REACH THE 60S BY
TUESDAY AND INTO THE 70S BY MID WEEK WITH LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 543 PM MDT THU APR 28 2016

VFR TO IFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE TAFS. CEILINGS WILL FALL AS
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DEGRADE LATE TONIGHT...WITH
THE LOWEST CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO OCCUR BEFORE TOMORROW MORNING
AND LASTING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.

STILL WORKING ON HOW FAR EAST THE RAIN/SNOW LINE WILL BE FOR
TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. EXPECT IT TO REMAIN WEST OF KGLD FOR
TONIGHT...BUT NOT TOO SURE WHERE HOW FAR EAST IT WILL BE TOMORROW
MORNING. MODELS HAVE VISIBILITIES FALLING DURING THE
MORNING...WHICH MAY BE DUE TO RAIN CHANGING OVER TO SNOW.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JTL
SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...JTL



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