Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 050544
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1144 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 106 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

ANOTHER WEAK SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED IN THE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL
WORK WITH THE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. SHEAR AND INSTABILITY PARAMETERS
CONTINUE TO BE UNFAVORABLE FOR A SEVERE THREAT...THOUGH GUSTY
WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME SMALL HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY ANY STRONGER
STORM THAT DEVELOPS. THE SET UP FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE
VERY SIMILAR WITH A STAGNANT PATTERN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
NORMAL.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY NIGHT...MOISTURE PLUME BISECTING THE AREA FROM
NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 00Z SUNDAY STEADILY MOVES
EAST/NORTHEAST BY 12Z SUNDAY BRINGING A DECREASING TREND FOR
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. FOR SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT PRECIP CHANCES NEARLY
NIL AS DRY AIR ALOFT COVERS MUCH OF THE AREA...EXCEPTION BEING THE
PALMER DIVIDE AREA NEAR FLAGLER BUT WITH LITTLE IF ANY INSTABILITY
DOUBT ANYTHING CAN GET GOING.

LOW TEMPERATURES SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S TO AROUND 60
WEST...LOW 60S TO LOW 70S ELSEWHERE. HIGH TEMPERATURES SUNDAY LOOK
TO RANGE FROM THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 IN FAR EASTERN COLORADO...LOW
90S TO AROUND 100 ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWEST
NEBRASKA...HOTTEST IN THE HILL CITY AND NORTON AREAS. LOW
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE MID 50S WEST TO LOW 60S EAST.

MONDAY...MOISTURE AVAILABILITY INCREASES QUITE A BIT GENERALLY
ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS/EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA SOMEWHAT FAVORING
CURRENT PRECIPITATION CHANCES. NOT MUCH INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH SO
ONLY ISOLATED CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS. FOR MONDAY NIGHT WILL BE
EXPECTING A GENERALLY DRY FORECAST...PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS FROM
MCCOOK TO HILL CITY AND POINTS EAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S WITH LOWS AGAIN IN THE MID
50S TO LOW/MID 60S.

TUESDAY...BROAD UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
BRINGING FURTHER COOLING TO THE AREA. SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY MOVES IN
FROM THE NORTH DURING THE NIGHT BRINGING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID
80S WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S TO NEAR 60.

WEDNESDAY...SFC HIGH MOVES EAST TOWARD THE MIDWEST ALLOWING RETURN
FLOW OF SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH SFC WINDS. 850MB TEMPERATURES ARE
SIMILAR OR PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO CELSIUS WARMER COMPARED TO
TUESDAY SUPPORTING AT LEAST BELOW NORMAL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES. FOR
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AM EXPECTING CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
BUT A BIT MILDER COMPARED TO TUESDAY NIGHTS GIVEN THE WARMER AIR
ALOFT AND CONTINUED LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SFC WIND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID
50S.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STARTS TO CHANGE WITH BROAD
UPPER RIDGE AXIS BUILDING ACROSS THE WEST AND TROUGH DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES NORTHWARD. SHOULD SEE
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S WITH LOWS IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1139 PM MDT FRI SEP 4 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR BOTH SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
CURRENT CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS LIKE IT WILL NOT
AFFECT EITHER SITE WITH KMCK HAVING THE BEST CHANCE. SOME
GUSTINESS TO THE WINDS WILL END BY 09Z TO 10Z. THESE SOUTH WINDS
WILL INCREASE AND BECOME GUSTY IN THE 15Z TO 17Z TIME FRAME.
SUSTAINED WINDS OF NEAR 18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY.

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TOMORROW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IT DOES APPEAR THAT STORMS WILL BE FURTHER EAST THAN
THEY HAVE BEEN THE LAST FEW NIGHTS. NOT A LOT OF CONFIDENCE IN
THIS WITH ONLY A MODEL OR TWO SHOWING THIS AND THE MODELS HAVE
TENDED TO BE TOO FAR EAST WITH THE RAINFALL. SO AT THIS TIME MADE
VCTS OR TSRA MENTION IN THE TAFS. THESE CAN BE REFINED THE CLOSER
WE GET TO THAT TIME PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...BULLER



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