Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KGLD 180805
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
205 AM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal daytime temperatures Today through Saturday,
  returning to near normal levels Sunday.

- 20%-30% chances for showers Friday night-Saturday, 20%-40%
  chance for showers (rain and snow dependent on location)
  Saturday night, rain showers Sunday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 204 AM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Upper low is present across the Great Lakes which is causing a cold
front and associated surface high into the CWA. Watching a
corridor of single digit dew points across the eastern portion
of the area which will be the focus for the coldest air of the
night as mainly clear skies and light winds will allow for
radiational cooling to occur. An additional upper level low
across the SW CONUS looks to keep this chilly air short lived as
this will encourage a progressive nature to the Great Lakes low
and will allow our winds to become more westerly during the
day. This along with some subtle downsloping is forecast to
allow high temperatures to rebound into the upper 50s to low
60s across eastern Colorado to the mid 50s across the east which
will still be vicinity of the above mentioned surface high.

Monday night and into Tuesday; low temperatures were actually
raised a few degrees as westerly winds around 10-15 mph look to
be present overnight; also am seeing some hints at some WAA
moving in from the north with a weak surface trough that will
turn winds to the north as we head into the day Tuesday. Upper
level ridging looks to be across the western CONUS as high
temperatures again warm into the mid to upper 60s across the
forecast area. Surface high pressure looks to develop across the
area keeping winds light and variable across the area. Some
upper level moisture looks to be in place which may create some
periods of cirrus across the area.

Tuesday night and into Wednesday; moisture will begin advecting in
from the Gulf of Mexico as our winds turn more easterly and begin
advecting in some of the moisture. Will need to watch for fog and/or
stratus potential during this time period as the easterly winds will
be climatologically favored for this to occur. Low temperatures
are currently forecasted to be in the mid 30s across the area.

Wednesday, another surface high with associated troughing looks
to affect mainly eastern portions of the area resulting in
cooler high temperatures currently forecasted in the mid to
upper 50s across the east versus low to mid 60s across the west.
A weak disturbance then moves across the Oklahoma Panhandle
during the day Wednesday which may create enough lift, with the
moisture in place from earlier in the day, for some showers to
develop during the late afternoon into the evening hours.
Currently minimal rainfall looks to be most likely outcome at
this time. Additional moisture looks to advect up into the
region into Thursday morning as the potential for fog/stratus
returns.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 142 PM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024

At the start of the long term period, the area is under
northwesterly flow aloft as the center of low pressure formerly over
the Desert Southwest/Four Corners region has progressed eastward and
is now situated in vicinity of the TX/OK Panhandles. A cold front is
expected to move through Thursday, and winds are currently forecast
to gust into the 20-25 mph range with min RH west of Hwy 27
falling into the teens to low 20s, possibly creating some fire
weather concern. Moisture will be drawn up through TX/OK into
parts of KS - will need to monitor whether or not our area will
see any precipitation with this or simply an increase in cloud
cover. 850mb temperatures Thursday generally in the 12-18C range
give above normal temperatures, in the middle 60s to low 70s.
Low temperatures are forecast in the 30s.

Friday, an upper level ridge moving over the western CONUS will have
the area under west-northwest flow aloft. During the latter part of
the weekend, flow aloft backs towards the southwest ahead of an
upper level trough moving through the western CONUS. As mentioned in
previous discussions, this system will bring a potentially more
active pattern during this period, but there is uncertainty in
impacts at this range. For now, the forecast includes a few off and
on chances for precipitation (generally to around 20-30%), mainly in
the form of rain, but cooler air working in may see a transition to
or mix with snow. Temperatures also have a greater uncertainty,
currently expecting generally near to above normal temperatures
Friday and Saturday, with mid-upper 50s and 60s for highs and 30s
for lows, before trending cooler and closer to normal again for
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 930 PM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Both terminals will see VFR conditions through the forecast
period. Winds for both sites, light/variable through about
17z-18z Monday then west-northwest 5-10kts. By 22z-23z,
becoming southwest around 10kts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Trigg
LONG TERM...CC
AVIATION...JN


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.