Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 280821

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
221 AM MDT Fri Apr 28 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 258 PM MDT Thu Apr 27 2017

A period of active weather has begun. Models consistent from
yesterday and supported by satellite and upper air analysis.
Rather strong system continues to move toward the area. A rather
strong pv anomaly is associated with this system. A surface
boundary was also located just west of the area. Negative theta-e
lapse rates are in place.

As a result showers have been increasing in coverage to our west
and will continue to increase in coverage as it moves across the
area during the night. Some strong thunderstorms will be possible
this evening. Question becomes later tonight into tomorrow morning
how how far north does that precipitation move and how much
continues to affect the area. Am thinking that with the rainfall
that occurs during the night and cloud cover should keep mins from
dropping too much.

Believe brunt of the precipitation will stay to the north of my
area tomorrow morning. Strong system digging into the Great Basin
will push that initial system north of the area. Lingering lift
and favorable theta-e lapse rates will remain over the north
through the morning and that is where the precipitation should
stay. During the afternoon a rather strong mid level baroclinic
zone/shortwave trough will begin to rotate through the area
through the afternoon. So precipitation move further south in the
afternoon. Precipitation and cloud cover will keep temperatures
from being able to warm too much.

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 220 AM MDT Fri Apr 28 2017

The extended period will see chances for precipitation during
portions of next week. To start off, Monday is looking to be dry
during the first half of the day and then slight chances for rain
showers are possible in the evening hours. Northwest upper level
flow will dominate over the region during this time but a small
embedded shortwave trough will create precipitation chances.

By the time Tuesday and Wednesday come around a broad low pressure
system will move south out of Canada and bring the majority of the
periods precipitation chances. Greatest chances, according to
current guidance, will be Tuesday afternoon and evening. Right now,
there does not look to be much instability associated with this
system, so there is no mention in storms in the forecast.

Thursday will dry out with the exiting low pressure system. Upper
level flow shifts to the northwest again, with a strong ridge in
place over the western CONUS.

Temperatures during the period will slowly increase. Monday will be
in the mid 50s to low 60s. Tuesday and Wednesday will be similar,
potentially reaching the mid 60s in some locations. Thursday will
increase to the mid to upper 60s.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday night)
Issued at 1122 PM MDT Thu Apr 27 2017

At KGLD...low ceilings will impact aviation through the overnight
then begin to lift Friday morning. KGLD looks to be on the
southern edge of the lower cloud deck, so will be a close call and
lower ceilings could persist longer into Friday. During the
afternoon, surface winds will shift to the northeast and increase
as a surface low develops near the Colorado Kansas border area.
Ceilings will lower again Friday night as precipitation develops
late with the next system moving in from the west.

At KMCK...low ceilings will perish through most of the TAF period
due to upslope winds and moist lower levels. Light rain overnight
will occasionally reduce visibility to as low as 5sm.
Precipitation will become more scattered Friday morning, coming
to an end by late morning. Friday night, ceilings will lower again
with fog possibly due to the low level upslope winds and near
saturated conditions.


KS...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday
     night for KSZ013-027-041.

CO...Winter Storm Watch from Saturday morning through late Saturday
     night for COZ091-092.



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