Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 241809
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1109 AM MST Tue Jan 24 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1010 AM MST Tue Jan 24 2017

Let the dense fog advisory expire. Still some fog occurring but
should be gone within a couple of hours. At this time will not
make any changes to the precipitation forecast. However, I have my
reservations that the chance of precipitation is going to be as
high as what is in there. Temperatures look fine for now and are
pretty close.

UPDATE Issued at 809 AM MST Tue Jan 24 2017

Just completed an update. Main changes was to keep the freezing
fog through the morning. Also visibilities are a half mile or less
at many locations and issued a dense fog advisory for the next
couple of hours to cover this. Considering late trends,
observations, and 12z LBF sounding, took rain out of the weather
types and made it a mixture of freezing rain, sleet, and snow.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 242 AM MST Tue Jan 24 2017

The upper low over the northern Rockies will move across the
northern plains today. The associated surface low is located over
northeast Colorado this morning, with a warm front extending
eastward generally along I70 and a cold front south along the
Kansas and Colorado border. Low clouds and areas fog/freezing fog
have been developing along and north of the warm front overnight.
Radar returns have been mostly in the form of virga with no
reported precipitation reaching the ground. The surface low will
track along I70 this morning with surface winds becoming north to
northwest and becoming breezy. Light precipitation will be
possible along and north of the track of the low. Moisture is
shallow and saturation in the dendritic layer generally less than
50% except for southwest Nebraska where moisture is a little
deeper. This will result in a wintry mix of light precipitation
today, but changing to light snow tonight with the wraparound. Any
accumulations of ice and snow will be light and not anticipating
any highlights at this time. The light snow may linger into
Wednesday morning along and north of I70 before finally ending by
midday. Skies will gradually clear by Thursday which will be dry
under northwest flow. Temperatures will be below normal through
the period.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 216 AM MST Tue Jan 24 2017

Northwest flow will prevail through much of the extended period as
high pressure builds in the western States and a deep trough remains
planted in northern Quebec. A fast moving transverse wave will
traverse the western periphery of this trough on Sunday. Previous
model runs are persistent with a dry forecast with the passing of
this trough; however, recent runs are suggesting the possibility of
low PoPs for Sunday. Will need to monitor future runs for
consistency and with the trough so far removed, it is unlikely to
see any significant precipitation chances with this feature.
Beyond Sunday, the pattern will become more progressive and start to
become somewhat zonal over the southern US with a building ridge in
the Intermountain West and the continued trough in the east.

Temperatures will slowly moderate Friday through Monday with near
average temperatures Friday and Saturday. Temperatures will reach
the middle 40s to lower 50s Sunday and Monday which is slightly
above the seasonal average.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 1046 AM MST Tue Jan 24 2017

For Kgld...ifr conditions will be transition to mvfr within the
first hour. Mvfr conditions will continue early this evening. Vfr
conditions will return around 01z and continue until near 10z.
From 10z to 15z mvfr conditions are expected until becoming vfr
right after that. Until 10z north to northwest winds will be
sustained near 21 knots with gusts to near 31 knots. From 10z to
15z the gusts will end with sustained near 18 knots. From 15z
until the end of the period the winds will be near 15 knots with
gusts to near 24 knots.

For Kmck...very light fog will end shortly. After that light
precipitation can be expected near the site through this evening.
Current trends are indicating that little to no precipitation is
expected. Ifr conditions are expected until 23z. Then mvfr
conditions are expected from 23z until 08z. Then a brief period
from of vfr from 08z to 10z before return to mvfr through the end
of the period. From near 23z through the end of period with sustained
winds near 20 knots with gusts to near 30 knots.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...BULLER
SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...TL
AVIATION...BULLER


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