Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 141205
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
605 AM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- While a transition from rain to wet snow remains possible in
  far western portions of Kit Carson/Cheyenne counties (CO) this
  afternoon and evening, hazardous travel conditions associated
  with accumulating snow and breezy (25-35 mph) N winds will
  likely be confined to higher elevations of the Palmer Divide
  (west of Seibert/Flagler).

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 348 AM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Tonight-Tonight: Model guidance continues to indicate that
moderate to heavy precipitation will develop along the Colorado
Front Range and Palmer Divide today-tonight.. as shortwave
energy progresses northward around the eastern periphery of a
stalled upper level low over the Desert Southwest and southern
Pacific Coast. Recent runs of the GFS, ECMWF, HRRR, NAM, NAM
NEST and RAP all indicate that heavy precipitation will be
relegated to areas situated in close proximity to the Rockies
(i.e. I-25 corridor and adjacent portions of the Palmer Divide).
Regional observations and mesoanalysis data indicate a
thoroughly above-freezing airmass (850 mb temperatures 4-6C) in
place over the Tri-State area this morning. With relatively
warm, above-freezing low-level thermal/wetbulb profiles,
widespread cloud cover and little in the way of horizontal
thermal advection, low-level airmass modification will
predominately be a function of precipitation (e.g. evaporative
cooling and melting).. and precipitation type will be rate-
driven in nature. Given the depth and magnitude of above
freezing thermal profiles.. and that virtually all guidance
indicates that heavy and/or persistent moderate precipitation
will largely (if not entirely) be confined west of the NWS
Goodland CWA -- rain is anticipated to be the primary
precipitation type. In far western / higher elevation portions
of Kit Carson and Cheyenne counties (mainly west of Seibert)..
where above freezing thermal profiles are shallower and precip
chances/amounts are greater.. a transition to wet snow and may
occur.. and hazardous travel conditions associated with wet snow
and breezy (25-35 mph) N winds are possible, mainly west of
Seibert.

Fri-Fri night: Aside from a weakening MSLP-H85 height
gradient.. as surface high pressure over the Dakotas (tonight)
builds southward over the Central Plains (Fri).. expect little
change in the synoptic pattern (compared to today). With little
in the way of horizontal thermal advection, temperatures will
largely be a function of cloud cover. Expect highs ranging from
the mid 40s to mid-upper 50s.. coolest in western portions of
the area where thick overcast may persist for much of the day.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 229 AM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024

Saturday, an upper trough over Southeastern Canada and the
Great Lakes region will extend into the Northern and Central
Plains while a cold front moves south across the region. Outside
of winds becoming northerly with gusts of ~20 mph after frontal
passage, the area is expected to see little impact from the
front. Temperatures are expected to warm up into the 50s to mid
60s Saturday afternoon with overnight lows in the 20s to lower
30s.

Dry conditions are expected through the end of the period with
the trough axis extending from the northern trough over the area
on Sunday while the closed low remains over Arizona. The tight
gradient over the area from the northern trough will create
breezy conditions across the area Sunday morning through the
early evening with gusts to 30 mph out of the north to
northwest. Tranquil conditions continue on Monday and Tuesday as
the area remains between the two low pressure systems.
Wednesday we finally see some progression of the southern low as
it becomes more of a cut-off low and begins moving further over
the Four Corners while a lee surface trough develops off the
Front Range. Mild temperatures are expected to continue into
early next week with highs in the 50s to around 60 degrees
Sunday and in the 60s across the area on Monday. Overnight lows
may fall into the 20s Sunday night and the 30s Monday night.
Tuesday and Wednesday are expected to warm up nicely with highs
in the 60s to lower 70s and overnight lows in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 555 AM MDT Thu Mar 14 2024

GLD: Aside from a period of MVFR or borderline MVFR-IFR
conditions and light rain this afternoon.. VFR conditions will
otherwise prevail through the TAF period. North winds at 10-15
knots (this morning) will increase to 15-25 knots this
afternoon. Winds will shift to the NNE and decrease to 10-15
knots at or around sunset this evening..becoming light and
variable around or shortly after sunrise Friday morning.. at
the end of the TAF period.

MCK: VFR conditions will predominate through the TAF period.
While a period of MVFR ceilings cannot be ruled out this
afternoon and early this evening.. confidence is low enough to
preclude explicit mention with the 12Z TAF issuance. North winds
at 12-17 knots this morning will shift to the NNE and increase
to 20-30 knots this afternoon. NNE winds will decrease to 12-17
knots at or around sunset this evening.. becoming light and
variable by sunrise Friday morning.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...KMK
AVIATION...Vincent


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