Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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041
FXUS63 KGLD 210901
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
301 AM MDT Tue Mar 21 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Mar 21 2017

Upper ridge will rebuild across the region today resulting in dry
conditions. Temperatures should be able to warm to near normal if
clouds can break, which latest SREF shows happening, so bumped up
highs a tad. Tonight, a weak shortwave trough moves over the ridge
bringing scattered light rain showers. Measurable precipitation
amounts of only a few hundredths of an inch are expected. The
ridge axis shifts slightly east on Wednesday resulting in dry
conditions. Temperatures will depend on cloud cover. SREF
probabilities suggest Kansas and Nebraska will be stuck in clouds
through most of the day which will inhibit warming, but northeast
Colorado could see afternoon sun. As a result, might see a large
west to east temperature gradient across the area Wednesday
afternoon. Four Corners system gets organized Wednesday night,
with a lead shortwave trough moving in late. Enough mucape to
mention isolated thunder, but best chances will wait until
Thursday afternoon. Still considerable differences on where
exactly the dry line will set up for possible initiation. Deep
layer shear quite good, but limiting factor for severe threat will
be instability, which will be moderate at best. Rain chances will
only increase Thursday night as the system cuts off as an upper
low near or just south of the area, with northeast Colorado in the
favorable location.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 300 AM MDT Tue Mar 21 2017

The upper closed low pushes east passed the region on Friday and
rain chances decrease throughout the day as the system moves further
away. Winds shift to the north and strengthen in the afternoon,
gusting up to 40 mph in some locations. Highs are currently forecast
in the 50s to low 60s, but will not be surprised if temperatures
stay cooler due to cloud cover. With temperatures dropping into the
30s Friday night, some snow cannot be ruled out.

Upper ridging moves over the High Plains on Saturday behind the
exiting low, keeping the forecast dry into Sunday. However, another
wave moves onto the west coast, and precipitation chances return
late Sunday into Monday as this system travels across the Plains.
Temperatures warm through the weekend, reaching the 60s region wide
by Sunday. Lows will predominantly be in the 30s throughout the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1120 PM MDT Mon Mar 20 2017

For Kgld...until 14z vfr conditions and east to northeast winds of
7 to 12 knots are expected. At 14z vfr conditions continue until
20z as the east winds increase to 13 to 15 knots. At 20z mvfr
conditions will develop as the winds shift to the southeast and
increase to 18 knots with gusts to near 25 knots. At 02z vfr
return and the winds remain southeast near 15 knots but the gusts
stop. Also at 02z, light rain showers should be moving in from
the west but since it is at the end of the period vcsh was only
mentioned.

For Kmck...vfr conditions are expected through the period.
Northeast winds near 12 knots at the beginning of the period will
shift to the east at 16z and increase to near 14 knots. At 20z
east southeast winds increase to near 15 knots with gusts near 23
knots. At 02z, the winds become east near 14 knots with no more
gusts.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...JBH
AVIATION...BULLER



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