Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 220750

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
150 AM MDT MON AUG 22 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 111 PM MDT Sun Aug 21 2016

Upper ridge axis will cross the local area tonight resulting in
dry conditions. A few short term models showing isolated
thunderstorm development this afternoon in the deeply mixed hot
and dry air mass. There has been cu development in the last hour
but given lack of any kind of upper forcing and the only surface
boundary west of the area do not think any precipitation will
develop. Clouds will dissipate after sunset with loss of surface
heating but with winds forecast to stay breezy from the south
through the night temperatures will struggle to fall below the
lower to middle 60s. Upper ridge will move east on Monday with
southwesterly flow by the afternoon. This will open the door for
any shortwave trough climbing the ridge...with one identified in
the models moving into southeast Colorado. Timing would keep chances
for any associated precipitation until after 00z. Otherwise
temperatures will be similar to today with breezy to windy south
winds during the afternoon.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 150 AM MDT Mon Aug 22 2016

Chances for thunderstorms persist throughout the extended period
as temperatures steadily rise.

On Thursday, upper high pressure continues over the southeastern
CONUS with southwesterly flow above the region as a shortwave trough
advances over the western half of the country. Thunderstorm chances
increase as the shortwave approaches, with the best chance currently
looking to be Friday night. West to southwest flow continues through
the weekend and disturbances pass across the area. With moisture
filtering north along the western periphery of southeastern high
pressure, could not rule out precipitation during any period.

Cooler temperatures continue on Thursday after Wednesday`s frontal
passage with highs in the 70s. Temperatures rebound through the
weekend, and highs are back into the mid to upper 80s by Sunday. Low
temperatures rise throughout the extended as well, from the 50s
Thursday night to the mid 50s/mid 60s Saturday night.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1147 PM MDT Sun Aug 21 2016

VFR and mostly clear at both KGLD and KMCK while surface winds
remain southerly during period. A tight pressure gradient will
continue through Monday with gusts increasing to 30 kts by mid-
morning Monday. A slight chance of a thunderstorm exists at KGLD
early Monday evening. Coverage looks limited and have handled
with a VCTS for a few hours.


.GLD Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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