Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 052324
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
524 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

LATEST UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE
ROCKIES BEING PUSHED SOUTH AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS IT
ONTO THE PLAINS.  AHEAD OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH AT THE SURFACE A
STRONG COLD WAS MOVING SOUTHWARD OVER THE HIGH PLAINS.  STORMS HAVE
BEGUN TO FIRE ALONG THE FRONT OVER SOUTHEAST WYOMING AS WELL AS OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COLORADO AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH.

FOR THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AM EXPECTING THE FRONT TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN YUMA BY LATE AFTERNOON WITH STORMS ALSO MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST.  EXPECT THE GUSTY WINDS TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS PEAKING BY LATE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT SOUTH WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECLINE THEN TURN TO THE NORTH
BEHIND THE FRONT.  MEANWHILE THE STORM ACTIVITY WILL PEAK BY MID
EVENING AS LIFT ALONG THE FRONT MAXIMIZES OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF
THE AREA.  WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AROUND 20KTS AND MIXED LAYER CIN OF
40J/KG OR MORE AND NARROW CAPE PROFILES...DO NOT EXPECT SUPERCELLS
TO DEVELOP BUT MORE OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT DUE TO PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES OF 1.5-2 INCHES. TOWARD LATE EVENING THE 500MB VORTICITY OVER
THE FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FOLLOWING THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AS IT MOVES EAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  WITH UPPER LEVEL
DYNAMICS SHIFTING FURTHER EAST STORM COVERAGE SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECLINE AND THE FRONT SHOULD BECOME STATIONARY OVER THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT.  DO HAVE CHANCES FOR RAINFALL INCREASING OVER
THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE WEAKENING SHORT WAVE
TROUGH MOVES AHEAD OF THE FRONT INTO DRIER AIR.

MONDAY MORNING A SECOND UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST...PUSHING THE FRONT THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AREA.  LIFT WITH THE TROUGH WILL INCREASE AS IT DEEPENS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST PART OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE MORNING.  THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES SOUTHEAST OF
THE AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE EXPECT STORM COVERAGE TO
INCREASE AS THE FRONT IS PUSHED FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.  WITH
EVEN LESS DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO WORK WITH THAN TODAY EXPECT THE MAIN
THREAT TO BE HEAVY RAINFALL.  MEANWHILE NORTH WINDS WILL INCREASE
DURING THE LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 25 DEGREES COOLER THAN TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 159 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD...AS WITH THE PAST SEVERAL MODEL RUNS THE
FORECAST AREA WILL SEE AN UPTREND IN TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CHANCES
FOR RW/TRW. THIS WILL OCCUR AS A BROAD H5 RIDGE SLOWLY RETROGRADES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WHILE INTERACTING WITH A
CUTOFF UPPER LOW OFF THE PACIFIC COAST. SHORTWAVE IMPULSES WILL MOVE
ONSHORE AND INTO THE ROCKIES ON THE NORTH/WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE
BEFORE MOVING OUT INTO THE PLAINS REGION. THE STRONGEST OF THESE
SHORTWAVES WILL PASS OVER THE REGION AS IT MOVES EAST IN TANDEM WITH
A LEE-SIDE TROUGH. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE LAST ONE TO TAP INTO THE
MOIST WSW FLOW OFF THE PACIFIC...BEFORE UPPER RIDGE BEGINS TO
AMPLIFY INTO THE ROCKIES COMPLEX..AND UPPER LOW WORKS ASHORE TOWARDS
THE PACIFIC NW REGION. THIS WILL OCCUR BY THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
SOME CHANCE POPS FOR TRW AS CWA WILL SEE REMNANTS OF UPPER LOW COME
OVER TOP OF RIDGE...ON WNW FLOW NEXT SAT/SUN. TEMPS IN THE EXTENDED
WILL BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN BASED ON MOVEMENT OF UPPER RIDGE ALLOWING
FOR 70S FOR HIGHS TUESDAY...TO JUMP WELL INTO THE 90S BY THE END OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK. WITH PW/S VALUES RANGING FROM 1.00" TO 1.50" THRU
THE PERIOD...THERE COULD BE AREAS SEEING HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL IN
ANY CONVECTION OCCURRENCE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 524 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING ALONG SURFACE
TROUGH ACROSS SW NEBRASKA AND NW KANSAS...WITH ACTIVITY ALREADY
WITHIN VICINITY OF BOTH TERMINALS. COVERAGE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE THROUGH THE EVENING AS COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION
FROM NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA. WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM A SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION TO THE NORTHWEST...THEN NORTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD AT
BOTH TERMINALS. STRONGEST WINDS DURING THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE
BEHIND COLD FRONT DURING THE DAY MONDAY. AS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
WINDS DOWN INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT STRATUS
DEVELOPMENT...WITH WINDS AND MIXING LIMITING ANY FOG POTENTIAL AT
BOTH TERMINALS. CURRENT GUIDANCE FAVORS 1500-2500 KFT
CIGS...THOUGH THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF 500-1000 KFT IF
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ENDS EARLIER AND BL WINDS ARE NOT QUITE AS
STRONG. THIS STATUS SHOULD GENERALLY IMPACT THE AREA IN THE 10-16Z
TIME PERIOD DEPENDING ON THUNDERSTORM TIMING.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JTL
LONG TERM...JN
AVIATION...DR



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