Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Goodland, KS
000
FXUS63 KGLD 170835
AFDGLD
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
235 AM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Gradual warming trend with above normal temperatures Monday
through Saturday.
- Potential impactful system next weekend? Much cooler
temperatures a possibility as well.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 230 AM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024
Synoptic Overview: A pronounced upper level ridge /omega block/
anchored to the Pacific Coast.. and a cut-off low, trapped
within, over the Desert Southwest.. will persist.
Benign weather, characterized by dry conditions and near average
temperatures, will prevail throughout the short term period..
in association with an increasingly subsident /confluent flow
aloft/ synoptic regime over the Central Plains.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 121 AM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024
NW flow to split flow looks to be present across the area to
start the extended period Tuesday with predominantly dry
conditions and highs in the 60s to low 70s across the area.
Despite the warmer conditions any fire weather concerns looks to
be mitigated by the light northerly winds present.
Wednesday, the focus will then be on a weak wave across the
Oklahoma Panhandle. Guidance does suggest some moisture return
to SW/SC Kansas; but a little iffy if it can reach into southern
portions of the CWA. For now pops around 6-10% seem reasonable
for Graham, Gove, Wichita and Greeley counties. If moisture is
able to make it a bit further north then showers and perhaps
some thunderstorms would be in the realm of possibility across
each of the respective counties during the evening hours.
Thursday will again see above normal temperatures in the 60s to
low 70s across the area; may need to keep an eye on fire
weather conditions as winds currently look to be breezy gusting
around 25 mph and RH values in the low 20s. However; some
moisture looks to be present which may temper how low RH values
will drop.
Friday and into next weekend, a potentially more active pattern
looks to develop with hazardous weather possible; perhaps
multiple hazards. Deterministic and ensemble data are currently
struggling with the system which may end up being a fairly
tricky forecast as some colder air may be present across
portions of the area. Be sure to keep up to date with the latest
forecasts as this comes into better focus.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 230 AM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024
VFR conditions /mostly clear skies/ will rule through the TAF
period at both terminals, with cloud cover confined to scattered
diurnal cumulus (ceilings ~7,000 feet AGL) during the mid-late
afternoon. Light and variable winds will shift to the N-NNW and
increase to 12-18 knots late this morning (15-17Z) and persist
through the afternoon.. breeziest at the MCK terminal where
gusts up to ~25 knots are possible at peak heating/mixing
(20-00Z). Winds will weaken at or around sunset, becoming light
and variable this evening and overnight.
&&
.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
CO...None.
NE...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Vincent
LONG TERM...Trigg
AVIATION...Vincent