Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 231740
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1140 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1050 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ALONG PERIPHERY OF LARGE H5 TROUGH CENTERED
SOUTHWEST OF CWA. INTENSITY HAS NOTICEABLY DIMINISHED OVER THE
PAST HOUR OR SO AND THINK TREND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH OVERALL
WEAK FORCING EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER.

STRONG OUTFLOW BOUNDARY HAS CREATED FAIRLY GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
AND A PERIOD OF LIGHT DRIZZLE AS IT MOVED THROUGH ACROSS WESTERN
CWA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND ALLOW FOR THE
WINDS TO ONCE AGAIN BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY IN RESPONSE TO LEE TROUGH.

TEMPS ARE VERY MUCH A CONCERN AS STORMS...OUTFLOW AND FOG HAVE
HELD TEMPS DOWN CONSIDERABLY. HAVE LOWERED MAXES A FEW
DEGREES...BUT WITH STRONG JULY SUN THINK THINGS WILL REBOUND
QUICKLY WITH CLEARING.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 700 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAVE REDEVELOPED TO THE NORTH ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL NEBRASKA ALONG AND NORTH OF AREA OF H8 TO H75 PERSISTENT
WAA. WHILE FORCING GENERALLY DECREASES INTO THE CWA AS WINDS ALOFT
DIMINISH...AM CONCERNED ABOUT CURRENT RAP DEPICTION OF NEARLY 3000
J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE AND LITTLE CINH LOCATED AROUND H725. WHILE
FORCING MAY BE DIMINISHED...WILL NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR
THESE STORMS TO PROPAGATE INTO THIS POTENTIALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.
HAVE INCREASED/REFINED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT THERE STILL IS
A LOT OF QUESTION WITH REGARDS TO HOW FAR SOUTH STORMS WILL MAKE
IT. GIVEN AFOREMENTIONED INSTABILITY...SEVERE STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 552 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

NO MAJOR UPDATES FOR THIS ESTF ISSUANCE. CONTINUING MENTION OF
PATCHY FOG IN FORECAST AS SPOTTY FOG SHOWING UP IN LATEST OBS.
LATEST RADAR LOOP SHOWING ISOLATED/SCATTERED RW/TRW ALONG PORTIONS
OF OUR CWA...SO HAVE LEFT IN CURRENT MENTION OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG NORTHERN BORDER ZONES THIS MORNING IN
CONNECTION WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY...REMNANTS WHICH HAS BEEN
MEANDERING OVER KANSAS/NEBRASKA OVERNIGHT. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION
WILL OCCUR OUT OF CWA...BUT HAVE INCLUDED SL CHANCE POPS FOR TRW
THRU 14Z-15Z FOR NORTHERN ZONES. HIGH DEWPTS AROUND THE AREA
CREATING MUGGY CONDITIONS WHICH COULD TRANSLATE INTO A FEW HOURS OF
PATCHY FOG THIS MORNING UNTIL SUNRISE SO HAVE MENTIONED FOR ALL
AREAS. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL RE-ASSERT ITSELF AGAIN ACROSS THE
CWA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WITH THIS...EXPECTING YET ANOTHER HOT DAY
ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MID TO UPPER 90S FOR HIGHS...AND MID TO
UPPER 60S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. ONLY WESTERN ZONES WILL POTENTIALLY
SEE A LATE DAY REPRIEVE AS ISOLATED TRW MAY DEVELOP AS LEE-SIDE
TROUGH SETS UP ALONG EASTERN ROCKIES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 215 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

FOR THE THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT PERIODS...THE CWA WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE MAINLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS AS BROAD H5/H7 RIDGE
REMAINS OVER THE AREA. DOWN TO THE SURFACE...LEE-SIDE TROUGH
DEVELOPS AND MOVES ACROSS THE REGION THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A
WEAK SHORTWAVE WORKING OVER TOP OF RIDGE...AS MODELS DO SHOW SOME
FLATTENING POTENTIAL FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH MAY BRING A CHANCE
FOR CONVECTION. WITH 925 MB TEMPERATURES REMAINING IN THE +35C TO
+40C...FORECASTED HIGHS WILL STAY IN THE 95-100 DEGREE RANGE FOR
BOTH DAYS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL STAY IN 60S...WARMEST IN EASTERN
ZONES. BOTH HIGHS/LOWS WILL BE AFFECTED AT TIMES FROM EXPECTED CLOUD
COVER/PRECIP...BUT WILL BE LOCALIZED AS WILL BE KEEPING SL CHANCE
POPS IN FOR TRW. BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT
WILL BE SPLIT DUE TO SLOW MOVEMENT OF TROUGH OFF THE ROCKIES...AND
FOR FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT THE MAIN FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO NORTHERN
SECTIONS DUE TO TRACK OF SHORTWAVE.

COOLING TREND LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK WITH A FEW CHANCES
FOR PRECIP ALONG THE WAY. HAVE GENERALLY LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE
FORECAST PERIOD...BUT AM STILL CONFIDENT WE WILL SEE SOME CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY MOST DAYS. UPPER FLOW WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
AS AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION RETROGRADES WEST A BIT
AND A RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
COLD FRONT ARRIVING OVER THE WEEKEND WILL BRING RELATIVELY COOLER
TEMPS AND /THANKFULLY/ LOWER DEW POINTS.

SATURDAY...WEAK IMPULSES MOVING ACROSS THE COLORADO ROCKIES COULD
PROVIDE AMPLE LARGE SCALE LIFT FOR ISOLATED STORMS TO DEVELOP DURING
THE DAY. PREVIOUS GUIDANCE HAD INDICATED SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...BUT IT SEEMS THE ECMWF IS NOW
LEANING TOWARDS WHAT HAS RECENTLY BEEN A VERY DRY GFS. GEM REMAINS
STEADFAST IN SOME INSTABILITY DUE TO BETTER MOISTURE THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN...SO WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP SOME POPS IN PLACE DESPITE THE DRY
GFS AND ECMWF. SATURDAY NIGHT IS A DIFFERENT STORY...WITH
GEFS/ECMWF/GEM INDICATING INCREASED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AS COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FROM THE NORTH/NORTHWEST. THIS SHOULD SUPPORT
AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS LATE IN THE DAY...POSSIBLY LASTING THROUGH
THE NIGHT. UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT FOR LARGE SCALE LIFT ACROSS THE
LATEST GUIDANCE IS NOT AS SUPPORTIVE ON LATEST GUIDANCE AS PREVIOUS
RUNS HAVE BEEN...SO A BIT LOWER CONFIDENCE THAN USUAL FOR OVERNIGHT
STORMS.

SUNDAY...COOLER FOLLOWING FROPA. SOME CLOUDS DURING THE MORNING
CLEARING OUT TO A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION
POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT...THOUGH THERE IS CHANCE THE MODERATELY
STRONG CAP COULD PREVENT DEVELOPMENT. GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON
AN INVERTED-V SOUNDING...SO WITH ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP GUSTY WINDS
COULD BE POSSIBLE. A FEW STORMS COULD LAST INTO THE EVENING...ENDING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT. HIGHS LIMITED TO THE MID/UPPER 80S. OVERNIGHT LOWS
DIPPING BELOW 60 IN SOME SPOTS FOR THE FIRST TIME IN A WEEK.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS BOTH
DAYS...WITH THE BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIP ON TUESDAY. A NUMBER OF
WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND
INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS IN THE NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. IN
THIS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT EXPECT MOSTLY TERRAIN-BASED STORMS TO
FIRE IN THE DAY AND MOVE EAST INTO THE AREA DURING THE LATE
AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH WHICH WILL
INCREASE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND THUS PROVIDE SOME INSTABILITY FOR
STORMS TO WORK WITH. 0-6KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 30-40KT RANGE COULD
HELP SUSTAIN STORMS THROUGH THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. HIGHS IN THE
MID/UPPER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1137 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

MVFR CONDITIONS AT KGLD SHOUKLD END BEFORE 20Z AS AREA OF LOW
CLOUDS BEHIND THIS MORNINGS OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ARE ALREADY BEGINNING
TO BREAK UP AND EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. WITH COOLER...MORE STABLE
AIR IN PLACE DO NOT THINK THERE WILL BE MUCH OF A THUNDERSTORM
THREAT AT EITHER SITE AND EXPECT VFR FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO PREVAIL.
SMALL THREAT FOR RADIATIONAL FOG AT MCK TOMORROW MORNING...BUT
FAR TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF ATTM.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...JJM
AVIATION...JRM





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