Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 172345
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
545 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 143 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

WEAK CONVECTION CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN EASTERN COLORADO ALONG
PALMER DIVIDE AND WEAK WIND CONVERGENT ZONE WILL MOVE INTO
WESTERN KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. INITIALLY HIGHER BASED CONVECTION
IN KIT CARSON COUNTY WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE UPPER 30S SHOULD
EVENTUALLY REACH BETTER MOISTURE AS IT WORKS EAST WHERE DEWPOINTS
ARE IN THE LOW-MID 50S. HRRR RUNS ALL MORNING HAVE CONTINUED TO
INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA MAINLY SOUTH OF
I-70 IN KANSAS UNTIL EARLY EVENING. NAM HINTS AT THIS AS WELL.
BOTTOM LINE...HAVE INCLUDED LOW POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS BUT FORCING
APPEARS WEAK AND SOME CINH REMAINS TO BE OVERCOME. OVERALL NOT
EXPECTING A BIG CONVECTIVE EVENT HERE.

WIDESPREAD STRATUS AND LOCALLY DENSE FOG IS LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. SURFACE
DEWPOINTS WILL HOLD IN THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S WITH CONTINUED
LIGHT SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW.

POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...
EAST OF A TRENTON NEBRASKA TO HOXIE KANSAS LINE. GFS/NAM GUIDANCE
BOTH GIVE SUPPORT TO A SSE-NNW ORIENTED BAND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...ALTHOUGH TIMING AND PLACEMENT DIFFERS SOMEWHAT
BETWEEN MODELS. 500-1000 J/KG OF ELEVATED CAPE IS PRESENT TO
SUPPORT CONVECTION IF INHIBITION IS OVERCOME.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD CHANGE LITTLE NEXT COUPLE DAYS AS UPPER RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES SHIFTS EAST TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL AGAIN BE ABOVE NORMAL AROUND 90F GIVEN FORECAST 850
MB TEMPS 26-30C.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...FOCUS FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST IS
THE TRACK OF WHATS NOW WEAKENING TROPICAL STORM ODILE.

DEEP MOISTURE (WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES)
ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM ARE FORECAST TO REACH
AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70 LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON...SLIDING SLOWLY
EAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND OUT OF THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THE
GFS IS SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE PLUME OF MOISTURE COMPARED TO
THE 12Z NAM/00Z ECMWF...SO NO SLAM DUNK ON PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
WITH THIS SYSTEM NOR HOW HIGH TO GO WITH POPS. IT APPEARS THAT
EITHER WAY...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HIGHEST POPS WILL BE ALONG OR
SOUTH OF THE INTERSTATE. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IF
THE FURTHER NORTH NAM/ECMWF VERIFY.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS FRIDAY MID MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON
GUSTING IN THE 25-35 MPH RANGE.

FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON SOME MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE. CANT RULE OUT A FEW SHOWERS
AND MAYBE A THUNDERSTORM WITH IT WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AT BEST.
SATURDAY NIGHT...DRY WITH MAYBE SOME HIGH CLOUDS MOVING IN FROM THE
WEST/SOUTHWEST.

LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT MID 50S TO MID 60S WITH SIMILAR...MAYBE A TAD
COOLER READINGS FRIDAY NIGHT.

HIGHS FRIDAY IN THE 80S WITH UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S SATURDAY.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...DRY WEATHER EXPECTED. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTHWEST...ESPECIALLY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE NIGHT...AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVING
NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SLC AREA. HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. WILL BE INTRODUCING SOME SLIGHT CHANCE
TO LOW CHANCE POPS FOR SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE
WESTERN 1/2 OF THE AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES MID 70S TO AROUND 80 WITH
LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 50S.

MONDAY-MONDAY NIGHT...SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDINESS CONTINUES AS
THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD EASTERN
WYOMING. WILL NEED TO MAINTAIN SOME LOW CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S WITH LOWS IN THE
LOW TO MID 50S.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH FORECAST TO MOVE
EAST/SOUTHEAST TOWARD NORTHEAST NEBRASKA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.
CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY SLOWLY DECREASING IN
COVERAGE FROM WEST TO EAST WEDNESDAY AS MOISTURE DECREASES FROM WEST
TO EAST WITH PASSAGE OF UPPER TROUGH. HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE LOW 70S
WITH LOW TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY. LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID
50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 539 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

VFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FORECAST FOR THE 0Z TAFS. CURRENT AREA OF
STORMS SHOULD DECLINE IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO. A SECOND ROUND OF
STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE AREA NEAR THE
KMCK SITE OVERNIGHT. AT THIS TIME DO NOT HAVE THE CONFIDENCE TO
PLACE VCTS IN THE TAF. WILL SEE WHAT THE LATEST DATA SAYS THIS
EVENING. THE MAIN ISSUE WILL BE FOG/LOW STRATUS TONIGHT AND THUR.
MORNING FOR KMCK. BASED ON WHAT HAPPENED THIS MORNING...AND SINCE
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE SAME SETUP FOR TONIGHT...AM CONFIDENT
CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY THE
CONDITIONS WILL DEGRADE. PREVIOUS FORECAST LOOKED GOOD SO ONLY
MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...99
AVIATION...JTL


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