Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 300816
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
216 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 856 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

THUNDERSTORMS WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE EAST AND OUT OF THE
INSTABILITY AXIS. SO HAVE ALLOWED THE TORNADO WATCH TO EXPIRE.
WINDS ALSO DIMINISHING BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS SO ALLOWED THE
WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE. THE WEAKENING TREND WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
REST OF THE NIGHT AS THE UPPER SUPPORT MOVES OUT OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 214 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY...

...THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH WATCH FOR
THE WESTERN HALF OF THE TRI STATE REGION...

ANOTHER WARM AND WINDY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE TRI STATE REGION AS
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE U70S THRU THE M80S. LOWEST NUMBERS ARE
POSITIONED OVER WESTERN ZONES WHERE INCREASED CLOUD COVER HAS
OCCURRED. ALL THIS AS A RESULT OF LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST AND
STRONG SFC RIDGE TO OUR EAST BRINGING IN WAA ON STRONG SOUTHERLY
GRADIENT.

AS WITH LAST SEVERAL DAYS IN MODEL RUNS...UPPER LOW THAT IS
POSITIONED OVER THE SW PORTION OF THE COUNTRY WILL SHIFT EAST THIS
AFTERNOON THRU THE OVERNIGHT HRS. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR LOOP IS
SHOWING INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF RW/TRW OVER CENTRAL COLORADO...
AND IS THE PRELUDE TO AN ACTIVE WX SCENARIO FOR THE AREA. THIS BAND
OVER COLORADO WILL INTENSIFY AND MOVE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS...PUTTING EASTERN COLORADO ZONES ON DECK FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE WX.

STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON OVER WESTERN ZONES ARE FALLING IN LINE
WITH WIND ADVISORY ALREADY IN EFFECT AND WILL BE ADDRESSED CLOSER TO
00Z TUESDAY WHEN PRODUCT SET TO EXPIRE.

FOR TONIGHT...TRW/RW IS EXPECTED TO RAMP UP ALONG THE WESTERN ZONES
LATE THIS AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT AS
THE UPPER LOW MOVES EAST OVER THE ROCKIES THEN SHIFTING NE TOWARDS
NORTHERN PLAINS BY TUESDAY MORNING. MODEL PARAMETERS AND PRE-STORM
ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THIS WILL BRING IN SEVERE CONDITIONS...
INCLUDING THE CHANCE FOR TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN
COLORADO AND NW KANSAS. THE REST OF THE CWA WILL SEE THE CHANCE FOR
LARGE HAIL...AND WINDS 70 MPH BUT MAY CHANGE DEPENDING ON THE
DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP. ALTHOUGH THEY WILL
APPEAR TO MOVE QUICKLY ALONG BOUNDARY...SOME TRAINING IS POSSIBLE
THAT MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2" IN A
SHORT TIME...OTHERWISE...CWA WILL SEE A GENERAL 0.25" TO ALMOST AN
INCH OF RAIN. AS PRECIP BEGINS TO WIND DOWN FROM WEST TO EAST
AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...BRINGING IN MENTION OF FOG TO CARRY THRU 12Z
TUESDAY.

GOING INTO TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING
THE MORNING HRS. TRAILING BOUNDARY WILL BE SET UP OVER CENTRAL
KANSAS...WITH DRIER AIR WORKING INTO WESTERN ZONES. EXPECTING
CLEARING OF PRECIP CWA BY MIDDAY AS A RESULT. WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND EXITING LOW WILL KEEP HIGHS TUESDAY INTO THE 70S.
DECREASING WINDS WITH EXITING SYSTEM...COMBINED WITH AMPLE LOW-
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM OVERNIGHT RAINFALL WILL ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG
THRU THE MID MORNING HRS ALONG WITH SOME -RW/LOW CLOUDS DUE TO
WRAP AROUND FLOW CONDITIONS FROM LOW MOVING NORTH.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT TUE SEP 30 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS AREA ON FRIDAY
WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
FORECAST AREA...WHICH WILL BRING DRY CONDITIONS TO THE TRI STATE
AREA THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.  MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS NO JET LEVEL WINDS WILL AFFECT THE REGION DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST...LEADING TO PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AND DRY WEATHER.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE
UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.  TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND INTO THE
MID TO UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND FOR NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1132 PM MDT MON SEP 29 2014

THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOVING OUT OF KMCK. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION AT BOTH TAF SITES THROUGH THE NIGHT BUT SURFACE
LOW TRAJECTORY SHOULD KEEP MOST PRECIPITATION NORTHWEST OF TAF
SITES. WINDS VEER TO SOUTHWEST/WEST EARLY THIS MORNING. A PERIOD
OF LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS SHALL END THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WINDS
BACK TO THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN BY LATE AFTERNOON. WILL NEED TO WATCH
LOW CLOUDS OVER EAST COLORADO POSSIBLY MOVING INTO TAF SITES THIS
MORNING BUT OTHER THAN THAT...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE ANTICIPATED.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...024
SHORT TERM...JN
LONG TERM...MK
AVIATION...RRH



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