Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 280443
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1043 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 1235 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

UPPER LOW OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL
SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEAST TOWARD WESTERN IOWA TONIGHT. CLOUDS INCREASE
MID TO LATE EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE CENTER FORECAST TO MOVE INTO
WESTERN ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA. WINDS GENERALLY FROM THE
NORTHWEST 10 TO 15 MPH. LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO UPPER 30S
(WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA).

FOR THURSDAY THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE ALMOST DUE EAST INTO
SOUTHERN UTAH AND NORTH CENTRAL ARIZONA. CLOUDINESS SLOWLY LIFTS
NORTHEAST AS FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST. MAY SEE A FEW
SHOWERS ALONG THE NE/KS BORDER BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON OTHERWISE A
DRY FORECAST EXPECTED. SFC WINDS SLOWLY VEER TO THE NORTH THEN
NORTHEAST AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY AROUND 10 MPH EXCEPT ACROSS THE
FAR WEST AND SOUTH WHERE SPEEDS NEAR 15 MPH EXPECTED. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW 50S TO AROUND 60.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 124 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

H5 CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER THE PLAINS ON
THURSDAY NIGHT AND IN SOME WAYS WILL PLAY A ROLE THROUGHOUT THE
REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. NEAR TERM MODELS AND ENSEMBLES IN
GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TROUGH SLOWLY LIFTING ACROSS THE
AREA ON FRIDAY. WITH STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT...CWA IN BROAD
AREA OF ASCENT BETWEEN H85 AND H7 FRONTAL ZONE AND POCKETS OF
INSTABILITY A PERIOD OF MODERATE TO SOMETIMES HEAVY PRECIPITATION
LOOKS LIKELY. GEFS PLUMES REALLY CLUSTERING AROUND 1 INCH TOTAL
PRECIPITATION FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH EVEN LOW OUTLIERS
STILL MAINTAINING A HALF OF AN INCH OR SO OF RAIN...SO WIDESPREAD
BENEFICIAL RAIN LOOKS LIKE A GOOD BET. MORE UNCERTAINTY PRESENT
WITH RESPECT TO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY IS AVAILABLE AND AS A RESULT
HAVE TEMPERED THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL TO SOME DEGREE AND AM NOT
REALLY CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE WEATHER IMPACTS AT THIS POINT.

WHILE THE INITIAL PART OF THIS SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY CERTAIN...HOW
MUCH COLD AIR FILTERS INTO THE BACK OF THE SYSTEM REMAINS IN
QUESTION. A SMALL NUMBER OF ENSEMBLES BRING SNOW INTO PORTIONS OF
EASTERN COLORADO OVERNIGHT FRIDAY. GIVEN THE MEAN TEMP
PROFILES...THIS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WITH WARM GROUND AND A
SMALL CHANGE OVER WINDOW DO NOT EXPECT MUCH ACCUMULATION OR
IMPACTS AT THIS POINT IN TIME.

FORECAST CERTAINTY REALLY BEGINS TO TRAIL OF ON SATURDAY THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIODS...AS LONGER RANGE MODELS STRUGGLING WITH
DEVELOPMENT OF FOUR CORNERS TROUGH. ECMWF AND OPERATIONAL GFS
SHOWING QUITE A DIFFERENCE WITH POSITION OF LARGE SCALE FEATURES
NOT TO MENTION SMALLER SCALE SHORT WAVE RIDGES/TROUGHS. WITH
TEMPERATURE SPREADS IN EXCESS OF 20 DEGREES IN ENSEMBLE
SOLUTIONS...DO NOT FEEL PATTERN WARRANTS REALLY PICKING ONE
SOLUTION OVER THE OTHER AT THIS POINT WITH MEANS LOOKING
REASONABLE. IN GENERAL...EXPECT A GRADUAL WARMING TREND WITH
PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS...AND GIVEN AVAILABLE DATA DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH HIGH IMPACT WEATHER CONCERNS AT THIS POINT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1043 PM MDT WED APR 27 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST 18 HOURS OF THE
TAF PERIOD AT BOTH KGLD AND KMCK TERMINALS. THERE COULD BE
LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FIRST 12 HOURS OF THE TAF
PERIOD WITH BETTER CHANCES AT KMCK AFTER 22Z WITH A WEAK
DISTURBANCE SHOWN JUST TO THE NORTH. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS
WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATER WHEN THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE REGION FROM THE SW TO THE NORTHEAST POSSIBLY
IMPACTING BOTH KGLD AND KMCK (THURSDAY EVENING). BEST CHANCE FOR
MVFR CIGS BASED ON CURRENT TIMING IS AT KGLD AFTER 03-04Z WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SPREADING TOWARDS KMCK OUTSIDE THE 06Z TAF
PERIOD.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...99
LONG TERM...JRM
AVIATION...DR


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