Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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FXUS63 KGLD 240832

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
232 AM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 218 PM MDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Scattered thunderstorms developed this morning and are currently moving
northward across the region. With the surface front stalled across
the forecast area and the upper flow parallel to the surface
front, scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms are
expected to continue moving across the forecast tonight and
Sunday as the front and overall upper pattern migrate very slowly
eastward across the region. 1.5 to 2 inches of rain is possible
between this afternoon and Sunday afternoon with additional rain
expected beyond that into Sunday and Monday. Localized heavy rain
is possible with some storms along with marginally severe hail in
some of the stronger storms this afternoon and evening.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Saturday)
Issued at 231 AM MDT Sun Sep 24 2017

Strong model disagreement for this period. Most global models depict
an upper low and trough near the Four Corners region on Wednesday.
The latest ECMWF run has the low meandering over the Four Corners
region through the period, leaving the CWA in zonal/NW flow aloft
and dry conditions. The latest GFS is much more progressive taking
the upper low into Wyoming. With copious amounts of moisture at
700mb and decent lift, GFS shows precip and QPF Wednesday night
through Friday morning. Due to this, there is lower confidence in
the forecast for this period. As for temperatures, expect to see
values below to near normal for the period.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 1136 PM MDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to move
through the area tonight and Sunday. Lowest ceilings and
visibilities will likely be around sunrise Sunday morning when
VLIFR will be possible due to saturated conditions. Flight
categories will be slow to improve on Sunday, and may remain IFR
the entire TAF period.




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