Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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000
FXUS63 KGLD 272045
AFDGLD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
245 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 314 AM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

LOCAL AREA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF A STRONG SYSTEM
MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY. QVECTORS SUGGEST
SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING WILL EXTEND FAR ENOUGH SOUTH FOR ANOTHER
ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST PARTICULARLY IN NEBRASKA AND
KANSAS BUT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RATHER ANEMIC AT 20KTS OR LESS.
WHILE A SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...MAINLY WIND AND
PERHAPS A FEW HAIL REPORTS...ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SUB SEVERE FOR
THE MOST PART. MODEL QPF IS WIDESPREAD BUT MUCH LOWER COMPARED TO
SUNDAY AND 0-6KM MEAN WINDS OF 20-25KTS SUGGESTS STORMS WILL BE
MOVING...SO NOT ANTICIPATING A HEAVY RAIN THREAT EITHER.

COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH
OVERNIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE AREA BY EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING WHICH COULD BE BREEZY/WINDY FOR AN HOUR TWO IMMEDIATELY
FOLLOWING FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH UP TO 40KTS INDICATED AT 15Z
TUESDAY MORNING IN THE 0.5KM WINDS. SURFACE DEW POINTS AND
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP DRAMATICALLY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH
TUESDAY FEELING MUCH MORE LIKE WESTERN KANSAS. HOWEVER
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL MANAGE TO CLIMB INTO THE 90S MOST
LOCATIONS. CONVECTION WILL INITIATE ALONG THE FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND THOUGH IT WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED STORM MOVING INTO SOUTHERN
AREAS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND EVEN INTO WEDNESDAY IN THE
RELATIVELY COOL POST FRONTAL UPSLOPE REGIME. SEVERE PARAMETERS ARE
NEGLIGIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 245 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

FOR THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD...ANTICIPATE A PERIOD OF DRIER
WEATHER ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. WHILE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE EACH DAY...IT IS PRESENTLY DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN A DAY
WHERE PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAY BE HIGH AS WITH MORE RECENT DAYS.
THIS IS A RESULT OF A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY ANCHORED
OVER THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...SLIDING WEST AND NORTHWEST
TOWARDS THE ROCKIES LATER IN THE WEEK. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH...
LOCATED OVER THE ROCKIES RIGHT NOW...KICKS OUT OVER THE NORTHERN
HIGH PLAINS TOMORROW WITH THE RIDGE BUILDING IN BEHIND THIS TROUGH.
THEREFORE...WITH A STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT...HIGH CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION SHOULD NOT BE EXPECTED.

INITIALLY...PLEASANT WEATHER IS FORECAST IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE FORECAST TOMORROW. BEHIND THIS FRONT...NOTICEABLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY BUT EVEN MORE LIKELY IS THE END OF HUMID
CONDITIONS. FORECAST GUIDANCE IS IN STRONG AGREEMENT ON MUCH DRIER
AIR ADVECTING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH DEWPOINTS DIPPING INTO THE
MID 40S TO MID 50S. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY NIGHT WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF A FEW LOW 50S
ARE OBSERVED. ON WEDNESDAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 70S TO
MID 80S ARE FORECAST UNDER PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. A WARMING TREND
BEGINS THURSDAY...LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS THE HIGH PRESSURE
MOVES IN.

AS FOR PRECIPITATION CHANCES...ANY CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TOMORROW
NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE CONFINED ALONG AND JUST
NORTH OF THE STALLED COLD FRONT. THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO LIFT
NORTH AND WITH A LOW LEVEL JET AND LOWERED CONDENSATION PRESSURE
DEFICITS...A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS ARE POSSIBLE AS FAR
NORTH AS I-70 WEDNESDAY MORNING. ON THURSDAY...A NORTHWEST FLOW
SHORTWAVE SHOULD SLIDE ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. AS MOISTURE RETURNS
FROM THE SOUTHEAST...SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ACROSS
NORTHWEST KANSAS. THERMODYNAMIC AND WIND SHEAR PARAMETERS ARE
SIMILAR TO RECENT SEVERE EVENTS SO WOULD EXPECT STRONG/SEVERE STORMS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
ARE PROJECTED TO BE AROUND 1.20" SO CURRENTLY DO NOT ANTICIPATE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING THREAT.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1214 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT MCK AND GLD WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
REGION BETWEEN 22Z-06Z. A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY LINGER
THROUGH 12Z...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PREVAILING CONDITIONS.

HAVE INCLUDED WIND SHEAR FOR MCK AS MODELS INDICATE THERE COULD BE
SOME STRONGER SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR
THE TOP OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS THE NIGHT TIME INVERSION SETS UP
IN ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS OUTFLOW.


&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...024
LONG TERM...RRH
AVIATION...LOCKHART


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