Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Goodland, KS

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143
FXUS63 KGLD 250532
AFDGLD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Goodland KS
1132 PM MDT Mon Jul 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 257 PM MDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Mid-afternoon visible satellite imagery shows a line of scattered
convection forming along a surface wind shift/convergence zone
stretching from Merriman Nebraska to just west of Sidney to Fort
Morgan Colorado. Guidance suggests activity will remain isolated
this evening with most if not all activity remaining northwest of
the forecast area. Only the HRRR is persistent with recent runs
bringing convection into Yuma county before dissipation this
evening. SPC mesoscale analysis still shows capping in the mixed
layer instability field there. That, coupled with a weak steering
flow from the southwest and forecast little movement of the
convergence line suggests convection may ultimately stay just
northwest of the forecast area which is reflected in current
forecast.

Tuesday looks hot and dry but heat indices will remain below
advisory levels. High temperatures will range from 95 to 100
degrees.  The upper ridge over the central High Plains will weaken
and flatten out a bit Tuesday into Wednesday as a short wave trough
in mid levels moves out of the Rockies and into the Plains. This
feature will initiate convection along a surface lee trough/dryline
in Colorado Tuesday afternoon which will continue Tuesday night.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 257 PM MDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Tuesday night: Near zonal upper flow will bring through a shortwave
with a decent vorticity lobe across the Central High Plains Tuesday
evening. Combined with leeside troughing and a surface low, this
will help to bring the area chances of storms and showers through
the overnight. While bulk shear values look modest at best, decent
MUCAPE values and high PWATs will give the CWA a chance of seeing
strong to severe storms and very heavy rainfall. Main threats will
be damaging winds and the potential for flash flooding. Main threat
area looks to be Yuma County in CO and our Nebraska counties where
SPC has highlighted a Marginal Risk.

Wednesday-Thursday: Cold front should push through the area
Wednesday/Wednesday night. Will have a chance for showers and
thunderstorms areawide through early Thursday morning as the front
pushes southward. Could possibly see a strong/severe storm mid-
afternoon on Wednesday where GFS is advertising MUCAPE around 2500
J/kg and 0-6km effective shear near 25kt. Thursday afternoon and
overnight looks dry and cooler with highs mainly in the low to mid
80s and lows in the lower 60s areawide.

Friday-Monday: Upper level ridge amplifies over the Rockies placing
us in strong NW flow aloft. Monsoonal moisture plume builds back
into the area, especially at 700mb level. Will have chance of
showers and thunderstorms each afternoon and evening. Temperatures
will be near normal for the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1125 PM MDT Mon Jul 24 2017

Vfr conditions are expected for most if not all of the period. For
Kgld, south winds of around 12 knots will continue until mid
morning. At that time the winds will increase to near 18 knots
with gusts to around 26 knots. Near sunset the winds will decrease
to near 13 knots with gusts to near 22 knots and continue through
the rest of the evening.

For Kmck, south winds near 11 knots will continue the first half
of the period. From now until 13z there will be low level wind
shear. Late in the morning the south winds will increase to near
15 knots with gusts to near 23 knots. This last to near sunset
when the wind shifts more to the southeast and decreases to around
12 knots.

Thunderstorms are expected to be in the area during the last six
hours of this forecast. However since so late in the period and
some timing differences in model output, no mention of
thunderstorms has been inserted at this time and will be fine
tuned the closer it gets to the onset.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DLF
LONG TERM...SME
AVIATION...BULLER



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