Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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677
FXUS63 KBIS 132200
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
400 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH
TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL. POTENT SHORT WAVE
SLIDING THOUGH THE FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH OVER CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTH DAKOTA. WITH WARMER
AIR ALOFT...REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN HAS COME IN OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA CLOSE TO THE MONTANA LINE.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN MAY LINGER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...THOUGH EXPECT THIS TO GRADUALLY COME TO AN
END/TRANSITION TOWARDS SNOW AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ITS
APPROACH. LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME IN TWO SURGES...WITH THE FIRST ONE
CURRENTLY WORKING ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
THE SECONDARY WAVE STILL OVER EASTERN MONTANA. HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WHERE COOLER AIR
REMAINS.

ON SUNDAY...LINGERING SNOW OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS UPPER WAVE CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. OTHERWISE...A MILD DAY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SOUTHWEST. A LITTLE QUESTION REMAINS ON HOW MILD WE CAN GET OVER
OTHER AREAS WITH THE FRESH SNOWFALL.


.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

ACTIVE FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
FINALLY TRANSITIONS TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

ANOTHER CHANCE AT WINTER WEATHER RETURNS WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS
LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN MODELS ADVERTISE A RATHER
ROBUST EMBEDDED S/WV MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WAVE WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW AND POSSIBLY RAIN/MIXED PRECIP TO
THE DAKOTAS. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE IS
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TOWARDS THURSDAY
ALONG WITH MILD/WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S
EAST...40S NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL...AND MID 50S OVER THE SOUTHWEST.

FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOLLOWS THE RIDGE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY...WITH THIS FEATURE THEN FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER RIDGE
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. MODEL SPREAD HIGH RIGHT NOW IN REGARDS TO THE
END OF WEEK WAVE. THE GFS DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WHILE THE ECMWF ADVERTISES MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW REGIME.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1215 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE WAS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEASTERN
MONTANA. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING FROZEN PRECIPITATION TO MUCH OF
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS A MIX
OF RAIN...FREEZING...AND SNOW IN THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON...EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW BY TONIGHT. MFVR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL BE COMMON ACROSS ALL SITES...WITH
PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITHIN ANY HEAVIER SNOW
BANDS. WINDS OF 15-20 KNOTS WILL GENERALLY COME FROM THE SOUTH
THIS AFTERNOON...TRANSITIONING WEST/NORTHWESTERLY BY THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR
NDZ002>005-010>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT
FOR NDZ017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR NDZ001-
009.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...ZH



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