Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 160526

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1126 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

Issued at 1126 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

Latest satellite imagery and surface observations show a line of
stratus, roughly along and east of a line from Tioga to Bismarck
and into Linton. The RAP 925mb 90percent Relative Humidity lines
up fairly well with the stratus, and really does not push it much
farther west overnight from its current location. Expect the
stratus through mid morning, then retreating to the northeast as
low level/925mb winds begin to veer from southeast to south,
advecting in drier air. However, a large canopy of cirrus/500mb-
300mb remains overhead tonight through Thursday, thus expecting
mostly cloudy to cloudy conditions to persist.

Issued at 1015 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

High res guidance backed off on fog for tonight. With increasing
upper level clouds this seemed reasonable so took fog out of the
forecast with this update. Other updates were to keep isold
flurries north through 06Z and also readjusted sky cover based on
latest satellite imagery with low clouds central and east and
increasing upper level clouds into the west.

Issued at 620 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

Main forecast edits were to sky cover based on latest satellite
imagery. Low MVFR stratus a tad farther west than what models
currently have, so increased accordingly. My east and north
central will remain cloudy, still some question how far west the
low clouds will develop tonight with high res models showing a
variety of solutions at the moment. Threw in some ISOLD flurries
across my north central and northeast where a few observations are
indicating such near the sfc ridge axis.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 206 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

Several short term forecast challenges today. First, stratus
clouds across the north central and east central are forecast by
short range models to develop back west and south overnight,
ending up close to a Minot to Bismarck line. This scenario seems
reasonable in cool moist low level flow per the GFS h925 level
forecast. Although somewhat uncertain, the shallow cool air
across central North Dakota will favor some light fog formation as
depicted in the CAM models. Used CONSSHORT to place the patchy
fog in the grids late tonight, mainly central sections along the
edge of the stratus. All this cloud and fog formation will make
temperatures challenging tonight, Overall felt temperatures will
drop rapidly this evening over the snow covered areas so lowered
min temperatures about 3 to 4 degrees east and north central over
the SUPERBLEND guidance.

Increasing southerly gradient winds will develop late tonight and
Thursday, with the breezy conditions focused on the James River
Valley by noon Thursday. Used CONSMOS to load the winds, which
has been a bit stronger guidance the past few days. Winds remain
below advisory criteria Thursday.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 206 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

Thursday night a band of light precipitation will form in a
weak baroclinic zone across southwest into North Central North
Dakota, along the leading edge of a cold front. Sounding analysis
confirms at least a potential for mixed precipitation with rain,
freezing rain and possibly some sleet and snow all possible.
However this should be very brief and light so see little
consequence to any freezing precipitation.

The weekend will see some roller coaster temperatures swings as
the frontal boundary waggles across the region. Saturday will be
cool, but Sunday and Monday warmer by a bit. Overall it will be
dry through the period. Too much uncertainty to speculate about
Thanksgiving temperatures as the GEFS plumes show a wide variation
beyond Tuesday. However the European seem to be milder leading
into Thanksgiving.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1126 PM CST Wed Nov 15 2017

Mvfr/ifr cigs at KMOT/KBIS/KJMS through Thursday morning with
KISN on the fringes of mvfr until 09z Thursday. KDIK looks to
remain vfr through the period. Southeasterly winds will increase
to between 15kt and 30kt from 12z-20z Thursday. Winds will lighten
and begin veering to the southwest and west as a cold front
approaches northwest ND near the end of this Taf period.




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