Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 301746
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1246 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES NEEDED FOR THE EARLY AFTERNOON FORECAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT 8-10 DEGREES BELOW FORECAST
HIGHS WHICH LOOKS REASONABLE. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE FROM EASTERN MONTANA
INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. UPDATED THE LATEST
SENSIBLE WEATHER ELEMENTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 851 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

FROST ADVISORY CANCELLED/EXPIRED. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT
UPDATES. MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST
SATELLITE...AND UPDATED LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 633 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

NO CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATED FORECAST ISSUANCE. AS EXPECTED WE
HAVE FROSTED OVER MANY AREAS THIS MORNING. ALMOST A SLAM DUNK
FROST ADVISORY WITH MODELS THE PAST FEW DAYS SHOWING DEWPOINTS IN
THE MID 20S TO 30F. THROW IN A CLEAR SKY AND LIGHT EAST WIND AND
ALMOST A GIVEN WE WERE GOING TO DROP INTO THE LOW 30S. FROST ADV
VERIFYING ALL LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

COOL CONDITIONS ACROSS THE STATE EARLY THIS MORNING...AS MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS GIVE WAY TO TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S. A
FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE STATE THROUGH 9 AM
CDT.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE HUDSON BAY CONTINUES
EASTWARD...CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL DIMINISH OVER NORTH DAKOTA AND A
TRANSITION INTO ZONAL FLOW WILL COMMENCE THROUGH THE DAY. THE
CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS PROVIDE GOOD AGREEMENT ON
AN EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE PUSHING INTO THE STATE...FROM EASTERN
MONTANA...THROUGH THE EVENING. AS A RESULT...CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE STATE. THERE
ARE SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WEST THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT. THEREAFTER...MOSTLY SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...BREEZY SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
IN WESTERN AREAS LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)

ISSUED AT 354 AM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

AN INCREASINGLY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE
MAIN HIGHLIGHT IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE MOVES EAST ACROSS THE DAKOTAS SATURDAY
NIGHT...WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS LIKELY ONGOING SOUTH CENTRAL
SUNDAY MORNING. PRECIPITATION MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OUT OF THE
AREA DURING THE DAY. WE WILL WARM BACK INTO THE 70S WEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL FOR SUNDAY WHERE BEST WAA RESIDES.

STRONG WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION CONTINUE EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE 70S TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
REGION MONDAY AND TUESDAY. VERY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN DEVELOPS AS
OUR FLOW ALOFT BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY LATER MONDAY NIGHT AND
ONWARDS WITH A LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPING INTO THE WESTERN CONUS.
FIRST LEAD WAVE EJECTING OUT OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL ARRIVE MONDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY BRINGING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LATEST SPS DAY THREE OUTLOOK NOW
HAS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA IN THE MARGINAL STORM OUTLOOK WITH MY FAR
SOUTHWEST IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. THESE AREAS WILL SEE 1-2K
MUCAPE ALONG WITH 0-6KM WIND SHEAR 25-40KTS.

THEREAFTER A SERIES OF MID LEVEL WAVES PUSH NORTHEAST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS OUT OF THE TROUGH...EACH INTERACTING WITH A
QUASI-STATIONARY/REDEVELOPING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. MODELS STILL
PROJECT ALL THE INGREDIENTS (STRONG INSTABILITY AND/OR DEEP LAYER
SHEAR) WILL BE IN PLACE FOR STRONG CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINFALL
THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. AT THIS TIME BASED ON LATEST
GUIDANCE...TUESDAY MAY SEE MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION...LIMITED TO
MY FAR SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS THE FAR SOUTH ON
THURSDAY. WILL TRY TO PIN DOWN THE DETAILS AS WE GET CLOSER TO
EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1226 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS AFERNOON AND THIS EVENING WITH AN
INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL
SLIDE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH LOWERING CEILINGS.
TREND WAS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN PREVIOUS TAF FORECAST WITH SHOWERS
ARRIVING IN KDIK AROUND 09 UTC. BEST CHANCES FOR MFR CEILINGS WILL
BE KDIK AND KBIS AS MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. QUITE A BIT OF DIFFERENCE BETWEEN MUCH DRIER/HIGHER GFS
VFR GFS CEILINGS AND LOW MVFR-IFR NAM CEILINGS LATE TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. LEANED TOWARD A MIDDLE GROUND BRINGING MVFR
CEILINGS TO ALL TAF SITES EXCEPT KJMS 12-18Z SUNDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...TWH



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