Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 231828

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
128 PM CDT TUE AUG 23 2016

Issued at 126 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

The forecast remains on track and blended to observed trends
through 18 UTC.

UPDATE Issued at 1005 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

As of 15 UTC, the surface cold front was located from the Turtle
Mountains through Lake Oahe and will continue to propagate east
through the day. A breezy and dry day in the dry slot of the upper
low across Saskatchewan remains on track.

Issued at 650 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Main update was to pops for this update. Low level jet induced
convection fired up across the southern James River Valley the
last hour or so, thus added a mention of thunder for a couple of
hours. Reduced pops northwest/north central to more scattered.

Fire weather watch cancelled. See fire weather discussion below.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Main highlight is the fire weather concern in far southwest this
afternoon into early evening. Please see the fire weather discussion
below for further details.

A cold front continues to push into central North Dakota this
morning. The cold front is expected to shift into the southern
James River Valley 18z-21z today. Quite the density gradient with
dewpoints in the west mostly in the 30s, while along and east of
the cold front dewpoints are in the upper 60s. For the near term,
we have issued a special weather statement as patchy dense fog has
developed along the front. This has support from the experimental
HRRR for the next few hours. The nose of a strong low level 850mb
jet now just east of the James River Valley did prompt a severe
thunderstorm warning earlier in Foster County. But CAM`s not
suggesting the better chances for showers and thunderstorms this
morning into the afternoon will occur northwest through north
central. A closed upper low circulating over the southern
Alberta/Saskatchewan border with a leading 700mb shortwave trough
now over eastern Montana, is forecast to move across western and
central North Dakota today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms
mostly across northwest into north central, and into the James
River Valley. Breezy and cooler conditions expected behind the
cold front today with highs in the upper 70s west to mid 80s in
the James River Valley.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

As the closed upper low migrates into southeast Manitoba Thursday,
a secondary cold front will push through Wednesday morning with
another round of breezy northwest winds and much cooler air.
Chances for precipitation will be confined to the far north.
Although dry conditions elsewhere, cyclonic flow across western
and central ND should result in partly to mostly cloudy conditions
through the day. Highs mostly in the 60s, with lower 70s in the
southern James River Valley. Thursday will be dry and cool as well
with highs in the lower 70s with more sunshine as the flow
transitions from cyclonic to anticyclonic.

The next shortwave is forecast to push into southwest and south
central ND Friday/Friday night with a good chance for showers and
thunderstorms. Drier weather behind the shortwave initiates Saturday
through Sunday, with low end chances for more precipitation Monday.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 126 PM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

A cold front across central North Dakota early this afternoon will
continue to move east. Northwest wind gusts of 25-30 kts are
expected behind the front. MVFR stratus may build across the area
tonight as low level moisture wraps around a low in southern



Issued at 650 AM CDT Tue Aug 23 2016

Fire weather watch across far southwest North Dakota has been
cancelled. Sub-red flag criteria now expected. Fire officials will
still want to monitor with gusty northwest winds of 20 to 25 mph,
along with minimum relative humidities around 20-25 percent and
dry fuels.


.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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