Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 262353

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
653 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016


Issued at 653 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

For the early evening update, expanded fog wording a bit in aerial
coverage and developed sooner based on observations and the last
few hours of the high res model guidance, which indicates fog
developing after sunset for all but the southwest initially.
Already seeing zero T/Td spreads east of Highway 83 along with a
few observing sites already indicated visibility restrictions.
Otherwise the forecast remains in good shape for tonight.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

At 3 pm CDT, a cold front extended from surface low pressure in
eastern Saskatchewan, through northwest North Dakota. A warm
front extended across central North Dakota. Low clouds and fog
that formed along and east of the warm front earlier Wednesday
have been slowly eroding east at 5 to 10 mph through the day.

This pattern will continue this evening with the low clouds
retreating east across east central North Dakota with the warm
front. Meanwhile the cold front across the northwest will move
through the region after midnight. The HRRR model runs show
shallow cool northwest flow behind the cold front that will
likely support stratus and some possible fog back into the north.
Finally some fog is also possible south central where diurnal
cooling in the moist boundary layer will set up a fog scenario.

On Thursday with a complete airmass exchange in the wake of the
cold front expect partly to mostly sunny skies that will allow
good mixing. As a result mild temperatures are forecast well into
the low to mid 70s southwest to the 60s central.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 302 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

A generally progressive flow will continue through the extended
with several shortwave troughs flattening the broad h500 ridge
across the central and northern plains. This will bring several
chances for rain with a cooling trend from this weekend into next
week. The best chances for precipitation will be Saturday, and
again sunday night and monday. The flow aloft remains progressive
and the latest ECMWf, which earlier exhibited a closed low over
the northern plains Monday, now looks closer to the more open wave
and progressive GFS early next week. This may reduce the chances
for widespread rainfall on Monday.

The remainder of the forecast, Tuesday and Wednesday, looks dry
with seasonable temperatures.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Thursday evening)

Issued at 653 PM CDT Wed Oct 26 2016

The forecast challenge for the 00Z TAF period is fog. KDIK and
KISN are expected to have prevailing VFR conditions, while fog is
forecast to impact KBIS and KJMS. Around 13Z, fog is likely to
create MVFR visibilities at KBIS and LIFR ceilings at KJMS.
Conditions at KJMS are likely to be LIFR or IFR (VLIFR is a
possibility) through Thursday morning. Vicinity fog was mentioned
with KMOT though uncertainty remains on how far west the fog will





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