Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KBIS 140031
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
631 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

WILL EXPIRE OR CANCEL THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORIES ACROSS WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA. A PORTION OF THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...ACROSS
EASTERN WILLIAMS AND DIVIDE COUNTIES...IS IN AN AREA OF STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT RESULTING IN MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. DECIDED TO
LET THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY EXPIRE AND HANDLE THIS SNOW WITH A
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT.

TO THE EAST ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
IS FALLING FROM THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER TO BISMARCK TO MINOT.
THIS AREA TRANSLATING EASTWARD WITH THE SOUTHERN END MOVING THE
FASTEST. SETTING UP WELL FOR THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR 2 TO
5 INCHES WITH ISOLATED/LOCAL 6 INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WITH
TROUGH DROPPING SOUTH ALONG THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS PLACES BROAD TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WITH
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL. POTENT SHORT WAVE
SLIDING THOUGH THE FLOW CONTINUES TO PUSH OVER CENTRAL INTO
EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS DEVELOPED AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH OVER EASTERN MONTANA INTO NORTH DAKOTA. WITH WARMER
AIR ALOFT...REPORTS OF FREEZING RAIN HAS COME IN OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA CLOSE TO THE MONTANA LINE.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...SOME LIGHT FREEZING
RAIN MAY LINGER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA...THOUGH EXPECT THIS TO GRADUALLY COME TO AN
END/TRANSITION TOWARDS SNOW AS COOLER AIR MOVES IN ALOFT WITH THE
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. ELSEWHERE...SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND SPREAD OVER THE AREA AS THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES ITS
APPROACH. LATEST SATELLITE/RADAR ANALYSIS SHOWS THE BULK OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD COME IN TWO SURGES...WITH THE FIRST ONE
CURRENTLY WORKING ACROSS WESTERN INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND
THE SECONDARY WAVE STILL OVER EASTERN MONTANA. HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS
SHOULD REMAIN ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83 WHERE COOLER AIR
REMAINS.

ON SUNDAY...LINGERING SNOW OVER CENTRAL PARTS OF NORTH DAKOTA WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE MORNING AS UPPER WAVE CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION. OTHERWISE...A MILD DAY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
SOUTHWEST. A LITTLE QUESTION REMAINS ON HOW MILD WE CAN GET OVER
OTHER AREAS WITH THE FRESH SNOWFALL.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)

ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

ACTIVE FLOW REMAINS OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK...THEN
FINALLY TRANSITIONS TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN TOWARDS
THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

ANOTHER CHANCE AT WINTER WEATHER RETURNS WITH POSSIBLE IMPACTS
LATER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WHEN MODELS ADVERTISE A RATHER
ROBUST EMBEDDED S/WV MOVING THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WAVE WILL
BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW AND POSSIBLY RAIN/MIXED PRECIP TO
THE DAKOTAS. HIGH UNCERTAINTY AT THIS TIME. THIS FEATURE IS
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER WEAKER WAVE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.

BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING SHOULD DRY THINGS OUT TOWARDS THURSDAY
ALONG WITH MILD/WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S
EAST...40S NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL...AND MID 50S OVER THE SOUTHWEST.

FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOLLOWS THE RIDGE THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY...WITH THIS FEATURE THEN FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER RIDGE
FOR NEXT WEEKEND. MODEL SPREAD HIGH RIGHT NOW IN REGARDS TO THE
END OF WEEK WAVE. THE GFS DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...WHILE THE ECMWF ADVERTISES MORE OF A SPLIT FLOW REGIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CST SAT FEB 13 2016

A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NORTHWEST NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS
EVENING WITH AN ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR
WILLISTON SOUTH TO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT.
THE WARM FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR IFR TO LOW IFR CONDITIONS IN
SNOW KBIS-KMOT-KJMS TONIGHT. CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR TO IFR
AFTER 08-10Z AND VFR AFTER 15Z. KDIK-KISN MVFR IMPROVING TO VFR
AFTER 10Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ SUNDAY FOR
NDZ002>005-010>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.