Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 300519
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1219 AM CDT TUE AUG 30 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

Surface high pressure ridge extended from northern
Alberta/Saskatchewan southeastward across central and eastern ND.
Temperatures had dropped a bit faster than forecast, and given the
dewpoints in the 40s with clear skies and light winds...agreed with
and used the latest iteration of the HRRR high res model regarding
hourly temperatures for the early morning hours. This will lower
expected minimum temperatures to the mid/upper 40s in the north
central to the lower 50s south. The west will see a return
southeasterly flow which should keep temperatures from dropping too
much. Kept mid to upper 50s in the far west. Otherwise current
forecast on track.

UPDATE Issued at 920 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Some high clouds have started to stream in over southern North
Dakota from convection far to the south. Therefore, have increased
cloud cover a bit in this area. Otherwise, quiet weather
continues.

UPDATE Issued at 621 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Quiet weather continues as high pressure settles over the area.
Only update needed was to adjust towards current trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday night)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Winds and resultant fire weather issues will be on the increase as
we move through the short term forecast period.

A quiet nigh is in store tonight as surface high pressure slides
east across the forecast area.

The surface high moves from the eastern Dakotas into Minnesota on
Tuesday with a return southerly flow developing over the western
Dakotas, along with upper level ridging. There are some
indications of a possible thunderstorm Tuesday evening into
Wednesday morning on the leading edge of the resurgent low level
jet. the GFS has been the most robust with the qpf signal and with
the EC/NAM quite a bit weaker. Will lean toward the weaker
solution bringing mainly slight chance pops to the northwest and
north central Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Wednesday and Thursday the strong low level jet remains over
western ND with increasing boundary level winds and a building
thermal ridge. Daytime minimum humidities around 20 percent on
Wednesday with sustained winds around 20 mph could bring a period
of extreme fire danger across the west. However, increasing
moisture with the return flow could be a limiting factor. On
Thursday winds will be even stronger with possible wind highlights
over a good portion of the west and central. Again, the amount of
moisture return will be a big factor in whether or not we need
fire weather highlights. Will certainly need to monitor this over
the next day or so.

Late Thursday, a wave moving through the upper ridge could
interact with the strong jet over the western Dakotas providing
another chance of thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Monday)
Issued at 252 PM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

A potential cool and wet forecast Sunday into Labor Day Monday
highlights the long term period.

Persistant 850mb low level jet continues Friday night across central
ND, ahead of a shortwave trough and surface cold front pushing into
western ND late. In regards to precipitation Friday night, the ECMWF
keeps the strongest ascent/convection mostly confined to
central/southern Saskatchewan east into Manitoba, which is in line
with the upper trough being located farther north. The GFS is
farther south with the stronger upper trough, and hence develops
convection prospects across all of western and central ND Friday
night. The cold front will propagate across central ND Saturday and
exit the far southern James River Valley Saturday night. With that
said, cold air advection will be most pronounced across the west and
hence the coolest/driest air will be found here during the daylight
hours. Highs Saturday will range from the upper 70s west to the
lower and mid 80s central. Precipitation chances favor the James
River Valley Saturday, closest to the higher dewpoints and frontal
position. A longwave trough then approaches the area Sunday and
shifts through on Labor Day, catching up to the aforementioned cold
frontal passage. In response, with southwest flow aloft paralleling
the surface cold front, the front stalls out across South Dakota
with low pressure developing along the front and forecast to move
northeast into western Minnesota Monday. This looks to set up a
decent precipitation event across western and central North Dakota
Sunday into Monday per latest GFS/ECMWF. Cooler daytime highs with
the trough sliding through and forecast of clouds/precipitation.
Highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 1218 AM CDT Tue Aug 30 2016

High pressure will dominate the weather across North Dakota
with VFR conditions expected through Wednesday.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...WAA



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