Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 251737
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1237 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

CLOUDS WERE MOVING OUT OF THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND SUNNY SKIES
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 938 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

AREA OF LOW CLOUDS REMAINED ALONG OR EAST OF
CARRINGTON/BISMARCK/LINTON/FORT YATES LINE...AND THIS CLOUD SHIELD
SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND/OR ERODING FROM THE WEST AS DRY
HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES INTO THE REGION WITH WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS.
REST OF FORECAST FOR TODAY ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

NARROW BAND OF CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA AND THESE
HAVE BEEN ERODING THROUGH THE MORNING. SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO
CLEAR ACROSS THE REGION. KEPT ISOLATED SHOWERS SOUTH CENTRAL FOR A
FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A COLD FRONT FROM NEAR SHERWOOD
TO JUST EAST OF MINOT AND SOUTH TO NEAR LINTON. WEAK PRESSURE
FALLS CONTINUE AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY OVER NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.
THE FOG/STRATUS LOOP INDICATES POCKETS OF LOWER CLOUDS BEHIND THE
FRONT BUT STEADILY MOVING EAST. THE HRRR CEILING FORECAST HAS A
GOOD HANDLE ON THE CURRENT SITUATION AND ALSO PROGRESSIVELY MOVES
THE BACK EDGE OF THE LOWER CLOUDS THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
BY 14Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS AN UPPER LOW SPINNING OVER
SOUTHEASTERN ALBERTA WITH A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW INTO NORTH DAKOTA.
ALBEIT A FEW DISTURBANCES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE FLOW BUT THESE
ARE NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT DURING THE SHORT TERM
PERIOD. THUS EXPECT A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS AS
WESTERLY WINDS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15 AND 25 MPH. HIGHS TODAY WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 70S NORTH TO LOWER 80S SOUTH. AN AREA OF
SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND REMAIN SOUTH OF
NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER. LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THERE WILL
ALSO BE AN AREA OF SHOWERS SLIDING INTO SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN AND
MANITOBA...BUT THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN NORTH OF THE BORDER
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. THUS DRY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE 50S.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 335 AM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

THE MAIN FEATURE OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW FORECAST BY MODELS TO MOVE SOUTHEAST FROM SASK THROUGH
MINNESOTA EVENTUALLY MERGING WITH A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE
EASTERN US. AS THIS PROCESS TAKES PLACE THE LOW WILL USHER IN
COOLER SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND MORE STABLE AIR. SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTH
AND EAST ON SATURDAY. SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE DRY AND
COOLER WITH HIGHS AS COOL AS THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE TURTLE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...AND 70S SOUTH AND WEST. EVENTUALLY A HIGH
AMPLITUDE FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS NORTH AMERICA WITH A LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US AND A RIDGE OVER THE WEST BY THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK. THIS LEAVES THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN A SLIGHTLY
ANTICYCLONIC NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME THAT SHOULD SUPPRESS MUCH OF
THE CONVECTION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH JUST ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1237 PM CDT FRI JUL 25 2014

MVFR/VFR CIGS MOVING OUT OF THE KJMS AREA AND WILL KEEP MENTION OF
CIGS OUT AT 18Z. OTHERWISE SKC WILL DOMINATE THE TERMINALS THROUGH
AT LEAST 06Z...WHEN NORTHERN TAF SITES OF KISN/KMOT MAY BE IMPACTED
BY SCATTERED CLOUDS OF VFR HEIGHT...BECOMING BROKEN AROUND 13Z-14Z.
WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25KT WILL SUBSIDE BY 02Z
SATURDAY...THEN WINDS INCREASE AGAIN AFT 12Z SATURDAY WITH GUSTS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER 25 KNOTS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JV





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