


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
525 FXUS63 KBIS 280431 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 1131 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms continue late this evening across much of central North Dakota. Expected hazards include hail as large as baseballs, damaging winds as high as 80 mph, and a tornado or two possible. - There is a low chance (10 to 20 percent) for isolated strong to severe storms across parts of south central and eastern North Dakota Saturday afternoon and evening. - Daily high temperatures through next week are mostly expected to range from the mid 70s to upper 80s. Today and Saturday will be humid for central and eastern North Dakota. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1130 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Quick update to cancel the Tornado Watch for Sioux, Grant, Morton, Oliver, Sheridan, and Pierce Counties. Storms have moved east out of the counties so they should be in the clear. UPDATE Issued at 1049 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Quick update to add LaMoure and Dickey Counties to Tornado Watch 468. UPDATE Issued at 1021 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Quick update to clear western portions of the Tornado Watch. Tornado Watch remains ongoing for the south central and up into portions of the Devils Lake Basin. Damaging supercells continue to track across these areas with an uptick in tornado potential. We have had reports of tornadoes in Emmons around the Temvik area and just north of Bismarck and the environment should remain favorable for the next couple hours or so. UPDATE Issued at 912 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Clusters of supercells continue across much of central North Dakota late this evening. While many of these storms remain severe, there has been a little bit of a downward trend over the past hour or so, potentially due to some residual capping. That being said, the environment is still conducive to significant severe weather across central North Dakota and into the James River Valley/Devils Lake Basin. Thus, the threat should continue for the next few hours. UPDATE Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Deep convective initiation appears underway just east and south of Minot, with another area just south of Beulah. Rapid supercell development is expected with all hazards possible initially before eventually growing upscale into one or two linear complexes. While the primary threats appear to be hail to the size of baseballs and damaging wind gusts to 70 mph, initial storms may also pose a tornado threat if they can remain discrete. If storms grow upscale later this evening, the hail threat may diminish a little bit but the wind threat could increase with some gusts up to 80 mph. UPDATE Issued at 524 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Quick update to issue Tornado Watch 468 for portions of western North Dakota and all of central North Dakota. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 213 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Currently, a weak pressure pattern is situated across western and central North Dakota. Temperatures were mostly in the mid 70s to lower 80s with mostly in the 60s, except some mid 50s far west. Dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s were noted over far south central into eastern ND. SOO noted the weak surface flow and no real indication of a boundary. WV satellite imagery does show a shortwave over northeast MT and moving into northwest ND. As this approaches, we would expect the surface pressure gradient to tighten a bit with a more defined surface trough, with CI more imminent. The CAMs have been hinting at the northwest into the north central being the area favored for initial CI. Once we see this, the favored trend seems to be storms tracking to the south and east along the moisture gradient that extends into southeast ND. As mentioned earlier, the orientation of the shear vectors to the surface boundary in the north central suggest a possible mixed or messy mode. As you go farther south into south central ND the more perpendicular orientation of the shear vectors to a surface boundary suggests supercells may be more probable, but the atmosphere is at least initially more capped. Initial CI, no matter where, will have the potential to be supercellular with very large hail and possibly a tornado or two (due to the very steep lapse rates, high instability and generally low LCL`s anywhere, except for western ND). Very significant hail CAPE is situated across all of central ND. Any storms that do develop would have the potential for very large hail. HRRR soundings from various points in central ND this morning showed a lot of large hail analogs. The greater tornado threat does look to be more over the south central portion of the state, with the RAP STP maximized here, although the STP has stretched farther north with more recent runs. Later in the period the potential for activity to congeal into clusters or bowing segments is expected to increase. If/when this occurs, the main hazard would shift from large hail to damaging winds. A look at the latest HREF UH paintballs certainly suggest a blend of short and long tracks. Short tracks may be more favored in the north, with a blend of long and short tracks favored central and longer tracks favored south, if capping issues can be overcome. We increased the hail threat to baseball sized hail and kept the winds to 70 mph for now, and with the potential for a tornado or two. Saturday the greatest threat for severe storms pushes south and east of the forecast area. The James river valley is currently within the SPC Marginal Risk for severe storms (Level 1 of 5). A lot of how things play out Saturday will depend how things develop this evening and into the overnight hours, so will not spend much time on the severe threat Saturday. Sunday and into early next week, looks to bring a break in the severe weather. Temperatures through the period look to remain mainly in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Periodic thunderstorm chances do look to increase again by mid to late week. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 634 PM CDT Fri Jun 27 2025 Scattered showers and thunderstorms have started to develop across portions of the central. While storms will be of the hit or miss variety, any storms that do form will have the potential to become rapidly severe this evening. The best chances for storms will at sites KMOT and KJMS with lower chances over KXWA and KBIS. The strongest storms could produce hail up to baseball size and winds up to 80 mph. That being said, winds will become gusty and erratic under and thunderstorms that move overhead or in the vicinity. Brief IFR to MVFR visibilities will also be possible under any storms that move through. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions. Showers and storms should diminish overnight. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...ZH DISCUSSION...TWH AVIATION...ZH