Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 250517 CCA
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1217 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Latest water vapor imagery shows a couple of circulations/shortwaves
moving into an upper level trough now positioned from near
Brandon, Manitoba stretching back into southwest ND. An area of
showers near/around the Brandon, Manitoba area per regional radar
will continue to shift south into the Turtle Mountains overnight.
Have increased pops in this area following the 00z NAM. Low clouds
continue to expand from northwest to southeast and expect generally
cloudy conditions through the morning before clouds begin to lift
and decrease from west to east during the afternoon.

UPDATE Issued at 936 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Made some minor tweaks to the showers which are all widely
scattered and added more persistent clouds into early Thursday
morning.

UPDATE Issued at 645 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Main feature tonight is the mid level low pressure creating
widespread clouds and scattered showers. Northwest winds will
gradually subside around sunset. Expanded the scattered showers
further south this evening based on radar but only light rain
amounts expected. Otherwise current forecast trending ok.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Continued cool temperatures through Thursday highlights the short
term forecast.

Wrap around moisture associated with the upper level low across
southwest Manitoba will remain across western and central North
Dakota through the evening and into the early overnight. Cloud
cover is expected to decrease west to east late tonight into
Thursday morning. A cool airmass will remain in place on Thursday
marked by the 12 UTC NAEFS ensemble mean 850 mb temperatures in
their lowest 10 to 2.5 percentiles. Highs around 70 are expected
area wide. Given good agreement, a blend of the 12-15 UTC global
and high resolution suites were used for most fields.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 312 PM CDT Wed Aug 24 2016

Thunderstorms Friday and moderating temperatures Sunday into next
week highlight the extended forecast.

The 12 UTC global suites are in agreement on a long wave trough
to propagate across the Northern Plains Friday into Saturday. This
feature marks the best chance for showers and thunderstorms across
western and central North Dakota in the extended forecast.
Thereafter, a very low amplitude, broad upper level ridge is
favored Sunday into early next week. This would suggest a
potential return to near normal temperatures with highs in the
80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1217 AM CDT Thu Aug 25 2016

Main message this taf period will be mvfr cigs at all terminals slowly
lifting to low vfr 12z-18z Thursday. Low vfr cigs expected to
continue through the rest of the Taf period before scattering out
at most terminals after 00z Friday.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
AVIATION...KS



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