000
FXUS63 KBIS 080939
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
339 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

THE HIGHLIGHT OF THE SHORT TERM CONTINUES TO BE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS.

GIVEN GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE...A BLEND
WAS USED FOR MOST FORECAST FIELDS. EXTENDED THE WIND CHILL
ADVISORY TO INCLUDE ALL OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
THROUGH 18 UTC MONDAY. WHILE THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND JAMES RIVER
VALLEY WILL WARM ABOVE -25 F FOR WIND CHILL VALUES THIS
AFTERNOON...WIND CHILLS QUICKLY FALL BY 00 UTC CWA WIDE WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A REINFORCING ARCTIC AIRMASS TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD WIND
CHILLS TO -35 F WILL BE COMMON ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...AN AREA
OF LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST SOUTHWEST...SOUTH CENTRAL AND ACROSS THE
JAMES RIVER VALLEY TODAY AS AN INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SHORTWAVE
PROPAGATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. ACCUMULATIONS OF LESS THAN
ONE INCH OF VERY FLUFFY SNOW IS EXPECTED...WITH VERY HIGH SNOW
RATIOS GIVEN THE ARCTIC AIR IN PLACE.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM CENTER AROUND TWO
ALBERTA CLIPPERS THAT MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

THE 00 UTC 08 DEC GFS/NAM INDICATE 25-30KT WINDS SPREADING FROM THE
WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY EVENING. ON
TUESDAY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS ARE NOT AS STRONG...20-25KTS...BUT THE
COLD ADVECTION IS STRONGER. SNOW WITH THESE SYSTEMS WILL BE LIGHT
WITH TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS GENERALLY UNDER AN INCH WITH EACH SYSTEM.
WOULD LIKE TO SEE A MORE ADIABATIC FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND
STRONGER COLD ADVECTION ON MONDAY FOR A MORE DEFINITE ADVISORY...SO
FOR NOW WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SPS AND SEE IF CURRENT TRENDS HOLD.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL AND WE SEE A
WAVES MOVE ACROSS THE AREA BRINGING A CHANCE OF WARM ADVECTION LIGHT
SNOWS TO MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY
COOLER TEMPERATURES SATURDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 339 AM CST SUN DEC 8 2013

AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW WILL IMPACT KBIS BY 14-17 UTC...AND KJMS
FROM 16-21 UTC. KDIK LOOKS TO REMAIN JUST TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA
OF SNOW. MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...AYD