Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 210343

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
943 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

Issued at 939 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

Going forecast on target. Latest GOES-16 Satellite imagery
shows lower clouds advancing southeast along the Saskatchewan and
Manitoba border toward northeast North Dakota. Latest surface
observations show decreasing dew point depressions from Harvey and
Rugby through Rolla, on track for the possibility of patchy fog
formation there.

UPDATE Issued at 635 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

Hi resolution short term models are showing patchy fog and low
clouds forming across parts of the north and east after midnight
tonight. This is sound based on melting from today across the
forecast area, lightening winds, and increasing low level moisture
ahead of the system passing to the south. With mid and high cloud
advancing into the south the chance of fog there is much lower.

Have updated grids to add low clouds and patchy fog, again, north
and east.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1250 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

Quiet and mild today...cooler tomorrow.

Winds will diminish and shift out of the northeast by tomorrow
morning. This may allow some fog to develop as slightly cooler air
moves into northeast North Dakota and winds develop and upslope
component. The HRRR develops a narrow band of fog and low clouds
across north central and northeast North Dakota tomorrow morning.

With cloudy skies and northeasterly winds, temperatures tomorrow
will be about 10 degrees cooler.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1250 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

The long term appears quiet for the most part. The latest model
runs push the Tuesday clipper further north and east, leaving most
of North Dakota dry. There still appears to be a storm that will
impact portions of the Northern Plains Friday into Saturday.
Temperatures over the next week should be slightly above normal
through the next week for most locations.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening)
Issued at 939 PM CST Sat Jan 20 2018

Patchy low clouds and fog are possible at KMOT through KJMS and
east of there after 21/0600z and until 21/1800Z. Patches of IFR
ceilings and visibilities cannot be ruled out. For now have
introduced some fog and low clouds into those two TAFs and will
need to monitor for possible updates for worse than forecast
conditions. Otherwise, at KISN-KDIK-KBIS, VFR with some mid and
high cloud ahead of a significant winter storm to our south.




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