Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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454
FXUS63 KBIS 291135
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
635 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

.UPDATE...

Issued at 635 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Forecast on track, so no major changes with this issuance. A few
radar echos showing up across south central ND, though the clouds
bases at or above 10K AGL, doubt if any moisture is reaching the
surface so kept weather as nil.


&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

Currently...a cold front extended from a surface low over northern
Saskatchewan/Manitoba south across Manitoba along the Red River
Valley, southwestward into central SD. Behind the cold front, a
surface high was centered over southern Alberta/Saskatchewan and was
pushing southeast into MT and the Dakotas.

Isolated thundershowers developed within the past hour from west of
Grand Forks to near Carrington and west into southern Wells County.
This development was probably along a boundary around H850
associated with the surface cold front with a very weak mid-level
shortwave. Have put the mention of isolated/scattered thundershowers
for pre-sunrise hours. Also mentioned some light sprinkles in the
southwest with light radar returns there associated with mid clouds.
These showers may or may not be reaching the ground.

Otherwise, today the center of the surface high moves east across
southern Saskatchewan, reaching southwestern Manitoba by Tuesday
morning.
Mostly sunny but cooler today with highs from the low to mid 70s in
the Turtle Mountains to the lower 80s along the southern Tier of
counties. Comfortable temperatures tonight with lows in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

The surface high pressure system continues moving east Tuesday. At
upper levels, a ridge builds over the Front Range in response to an
upper level low that moves into the coast of British
Columbia/Washington. In response, broad low pressure develops over
the Rockies. This will set up a return low level southerly wind flow
and temperatures rebound back into the upper 70s to upper 80s.

The upper level low over the west coast continues to expand, and the
downstream ridge expands eastward. The ridge axis remains over the
MT/WY/ND/SD border Tuesday night and Wednesday, then begins moving
east across the Dakotas Wednesday night/Thursday. This will keep
very warm conditions to our area, with highs 80 to 90 Wednesday and
Thursday. The models are hinting at some upper level energy impulses
moving through the upper level ridge and bringing chances of
thunderstorms Tuesday night and Wednesday morning to parts of
western and central ND.

The upper level low/trough begins moving east Friday, crossing the
Rockies through the weekend as the main low lifts northeastward into
central Canada. As this occurs, southwest flow aloft will be in
control over the Northern Plains with a series of upper level
impulses. A leeside surface trough develops, along with a potent low
level jet, bringing low level moisture and increasing instability.
This will bring the chance of scattered showers and thunderstorms to
western and central ND Friday night through Labor Day Monday.

Regarding temperatures: highs in the 80s Friday before a cold front
moves southeast across the state on Saturday bringing cooler
conditions with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Even cooler
Sunday and Labor Day with highs expected to be in the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)

Issued at 635 AM CDT Mon Aug 29 2016

LIFR clouds across the James River Valley through 13-14Z. Appears
these clouds will be south of KJMS by 13Z. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected at all TAF sites through the TAF period.


&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...NH



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