Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 271416
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
916 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 913 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

OVERNIGHT CONVECTION SETTLING OUT ACROSS THE REGION. LATEST HRRR
SUGGESTS A FEW HOURS BEFORE THE STRONGER CONVECTION GETS GOING
ASSOCIATED WITHE THE WARM/COLD FRONTS MOVING INTO WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BY EARLY AFTERNOON. UPDATED POPS AND CLOUDS FOR THIS.
FOCUSED ON THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR SEVERE POTENTIAL.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

A FEW ECHOS ARE STARTING TO SHOW UP ON RADAR ALONG SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF NORTH DAKOTA. FOR MORNING UPDATE WILL ADD SOME LOW
POPS OVER THESE AREAS. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE
AND ADDRESSES THE SEVERE THREAT LATER ON TODAY WELL.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

SEVERE WEATHER CONTINUES TO HEADLINE THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.

LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS OUR NEXT UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PIVOTING ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST EARLY THIS
MORNING. AS IT DRAWS NEARER TO THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...A 1004MB SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST
MONTANA WILL UNDERGO A DEEPENING PHASE TO 991MB BY 12Z TUESDAY...AS
THE SURFACE LOW SHIFTS INTO SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN.

SPC FORECAST CONTINUES WITH THE ENHANCED AND SLIGHT RISK AREAS
TODAY/TONIGHT. HAVE MENTIONED SEVERE WORDING IN THE NORTHWEST AND
FAR NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH 18Z TODAY...THEN INTRODUCED THE SEVERE
MENTION BEGINNING 21Z WEST...AND SPREADING THIS EASTBOUND THROUGH
THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. THE HIGH RESOLUTION REFLECTIVITY TRENDS
SUGGEST THE FAR NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH CENTRAL WOULD BE THE PRIMARY
THREAT AREA FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. THIS AREA
IS IN THE PROXIMITY A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ADVECTION INCREASING AND BECOMING MAXIMIZED ALONG THE
FRONT. THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL REMAIN IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS UNTIL 21Z. A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE WEST 21Z-00Z AND EXPAND
AS IT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. PERIOD. SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL INCREASE TODAY RANGING BETWEEN 20 AND 35 MPH...THEN
VEERING TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST AFTER 06Z TUESDAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 312 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

HIGHLIGHT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE THE STRONG WIND POTENTIAL
ON TUESDAY.

ON TUESDAY...STACKED UP LOW RUNS ALONG/SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF
THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP
OVER THE AREA WITH STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION AND 850MB WIND
SPEEDS WELL IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS IN THE WEST MIXING DOWN.
THEREFORE...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR MANY
PARTS OF THE WEST...AND WILL KEEP AN EYE ON WHETHER THIS WILL NEED
EXPANDING LATER. ALONG WITH THE WIND AND THE COOLER
TEMPERATURES...EXPECT SHOWERS TO DEVELOP IN STRONG CYCLONIC FLOW.
GREATEST CHANCES WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST SHIFTING TOWARDS THE
NORTH CENTRAL AS THE LOW WORKS EAST. A CLAP OF THUNDER WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE WITH SOME VERY WEAK INSTABILITY NOTED...WITH SOME SHOWERS
REMAINING INTO THE OVERNIGHT.

RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN CONUS MAINLY BRINGING DRY NORTHWEST
FLOW THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES REMAIN ON THE
COOL SIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH WARMER TEMPS RETURNING FOR THE
SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 913 AM CDT MON JUL 27 2015

A SIGNIFICANT COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 00Z
TUESDAY...THEN SWEEP THROUGH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY NIGHT.
EXPECTING THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME SEVERE BEGINNING
IN THE WEST BETWEEN 21Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY...THEN EXPANDING INTO
THE CENTRAL TERMINALS MONDAY EVENING/NIGHT. OVERALL VFR CIGS/VSBYS
BUT MVFR CIGS FORECAST AT KISN BEGINNING AT 06Z TUESDAY. LOW VFR AT
THE REMAINING AERODROMES ONCE THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. HAVE
USED A PREDOMINATE TSRA AT KISN/KMOT/KDIK MONDAY EVENING BUT KEPT A
VCTS AT KBIS/KJMS UNTIL WE GET CLOSER IN TIME.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR
NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA



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