000
FXUS63 KBIS 040101
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
701 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 653 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

UPDATE FOR MINOR CHANGES TO POPS TONIGHT. RECENT RADAR TRENDS
INDICATING THE LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH IS A BIT MORE
WIDESPREAD AND ROBUST THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. HAVE INCREASE
EVENING POPS. ONLY A LIGHT DUSTING AT BEST IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. SNOW CHANCES WILL INCREASE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN
THE WEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE LIGHT SNOW
CHANCES ON TUESDAY. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT IN BRINGING
A BAND OF LIGHT SNOW FROM EASTERN MONTANA LATE TONIGHT...ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ON TUESDAY WHERE WEAK WARM
ADVECTION COMBINES WITH FORCING OF A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
QUASI-ZONAL UPPER LEVEL FLOW. THERE ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN
THE EXACT PATH OF THE LIGHT SNOW...THUS A BLEND OF THE
GFS/ECMWF/GEM WAS UTILIZED. THIS MATCHED UP WELL WITH WPC WINTER
WEATHER DESK...WITH A BAND OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. THE NORTHEAST AND FAR SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
CWA WILL LIKELY RECEIVE A HALF INCH OR LESS.

WILL NEED TO MONITOR PRECIPITATION TYPE OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST.
BOTH THE NAM/GFS INDICATE TEMPERATURES ALOFT RISING ABOVE ZERO
CELSIUS IN THIS AREA LATE TONIGHT BEFORE DROPPING WELL BELOW ZERO
DURING THE DAY ON TUESDAY. THINKING NOW IS THAT PRECIPITATION WILL
FALL AS ALL SNOW...BUT SHOULD MONITOR IN CASE WE WARM A LITTLE
MORE THAN FORECAST.

PRECIPITATION WANES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS MOVES INTO AN AREA OF
STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN DAKOTAS.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

QUASI-ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE WORK WEEK. EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGHS
WILL BE STEERED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA AND WILL RESULT IN AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PERIOD THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY. AT THIS
TIME MODELS DO NOT PORTRAY ANY MAJOR STORM SYSTEMS THROUGH THE
WEEK...MORE NUISANCE SYSTEMS BRINGING AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW EACH TO
VARIOUS LOCATIONS ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR THE WAVE MOVING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING...WITH PERHAPS A BETTER CHANCE FOR MIXED
PRECIPITATION INCLUDING FREEZING RAIN. MUCH DEPENDS ON THE DEGREE OF
MID LEVEL WARMER AIR ARRIVING IN ADVANCE OF THE S/WV.

DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH A
BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVING EAST OF THE ROCKIES INTO THE CENTRAL
CONUS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE RISE THROUGH MUCH OF THE LONG TERM
PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
WITH CAA OVERSPREADING THE REGION BEHIND WEDNESDAY NIGHTS S/WV
PASSAGE. TEMPERATURES THEN RECOVER FOR THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 653 PM CST MON MAR 3 2014

THE MAIN IMPACTS TO AVIATION THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY
MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN LIGHT SNOW. EVENING SNOW SHOWERS
WILL PERSIST AT KMOT AND KJMS. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY DROP BELOW
2000 FT AGL OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT WAVE WHICH WILL BRING
LIGHT SNOW INTO WESTERN ND AROUND 11Z-12Z TUESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...RP KINNEY
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...NH