Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KBIS 241557
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
957 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 934 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

EXITING SURFACE LOW AND ARCTIC HIGH ACROSS THE PRAIRIE PROVINCES
OF CANADA COMBINING FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS AND LOW WIND CHILLS NEAR
20 BELOW NORTHEAST. CLOUDS ARE INCREASING AHEAD OF A WEAK RIPPLE
IN THE H500 FLOW THAT IS AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHORTWAVE FORECAST
INTO THE REGION TUESDAY. THE RIPPLE MAY PRODUCE A BIT OF LIGHT
SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE NEW 12Z NAM
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THIS THINKING. FOR TODAY...WILL KEEP SKIES
SUNNY CENTRAL AND EAST WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WEST AND A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AFTERNOON SNOW NORTHWEST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 658 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR CLOUDS REMAIN AROUND BISMARCK AND
JAMESTOWN. ADDITIONAL MVFR CLOUDINESS IS ALSO MOVING INTO THE
WEST. WILL ADJUST SKY COVER BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
POPULATE LATEST SENSIBLE WEATHER OBSERVATIONS. OTHERWISE NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

CURRENTLY...THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG
WINDS ON SUNDAY WAS OVER THE GREAT LAKES. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
WAS OVER MANITOBA AND CONTINUED TO MOVE SOUTH TOWARDS NORTH DAKOTA.
TEMPERATURES WERE AROUND 5 ABOVE OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES
AS THE ARCTIC AIR PUSHES INTO THE STATE.

THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL BRUSH
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE BEFORE MOVING SOUTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
FORECAST AREA. BY THIS AFTERNOON...AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND
ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS ALBERTA AND
SASKATCHEWAN WILL APPROACH NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LOOK FOR
INCREASING CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH ONLY
INTO THE TEENS OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...BUT RISE INTO THE 20S
WEST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT.

TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE FRONT MOVES
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE...THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
SOME LIGHT SNOW/FLURRIES. PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER TONIGHT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING MUCH. LOOK FOR LOWS FROM AROUND 10 ABOVE
FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE JAMES VALLEY...TO THE UPPER
TEENS IN THE SOUTHWEST.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 338 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

MAIN FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CONTINUED BATTLE BETWEEN COLD AIR TO
OUR NORTH AND MILD PACIFIC AIR TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST. MODELS
CONTINUE TO GO BACK AND FORTH BETWEEN THE VARYING SOLUTIONS
RESULTING IN OVERALL FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWER THAN AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED SFC LOW PRESSURE WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. DETERMINISTIC MODELS ARE IN A
LITTLE BETTER AGREEMENT BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW
AND ASSOCIATED SNOW BAND REMAINS BELOW AVERAGE. THE 24 NOV 00 UTC
NAM IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS WITH A WESTERN TRACK OF THE SURFACE
LOW...BUT NOT AS FAR WEST AS THE GFS. THE ECMWF COMPARED TO THE 23
NOV 00 UTC RUN IS A LITTLE FARTHER WEST...AND THE GEM REMAINS
FARTHEST EAST. UTILIZED A BLEND FOR NOW. MODELS ARE NOT BAD WITH QPF
AMOUNTS AND AN AREA OF 1-3 INCHES ACROSS THE CWA SEEM REASONABLE.
GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH IN THE SOUTHWEST LOOKS TO BE THE BEST
AGREEMENT. WHERE THE BAND OF HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS OF 2-3 INCHES...AND
MAYBE UP TO 4 INCHES ENDS UP REMAINS TO BE SEEN. FOR NOW WE HAVE A
BROAD AREA OF ROUGHLY 2-3 INCHES NORTH AND EAST OF LAKE SAKAKAWEA
AND THE MISSOURI RIVER...INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE GEM...WINDS DO NOT LOOK AS
STRONG AS YESTERDAYS MODEL RUNS. COULD STILL SEE AN
ADVISORY...ESPECIALLY WITH INCREASED TRAFFIC AS WE APPROACH THE
HOLIDAY. HOWEVER...WITH MOSTLY SUB ADVISORY SNOW AMOUNTS...LESS
THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW...AND SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE
TRACK OF THE SYSTEM...WILL HOLD WITH A MENTION IN THE HWO FOR NOW.

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL DEPICTED TO DEVELOP
ORIENTATED NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST FROM NORTHERN MONTANA THROUGH
SOUTHWEST ND/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. ALOFT...A STRONG JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH THE SFC
BOUNDARY TO PRODUCE A SWATH OF ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL UNDER STRONG
THERMAL LIFT ALONG TO EAST OF THE FRONT. MODEL SPREAD HAS CLOSED
FORM PREVIOUS RUNS AND HAVE CONTINUED TO CONFINE HIGHER POPS TO THE
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...EVEN MORE THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. WILL
CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MAYBE
AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW POSSIBLE FOR THESE AREAS. WILL SEE IF MODELS
CONTINUE TO HOLD ON THIS SOLUTION. ANY IMPACTS FROM BLOWING SNOW
SHOULD BE MINIMAL AS WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE TOO STRONG.

MODELS ACTUALLY CONVERGE A BIT ON THE THURSDAY-FRIDAY TIMEFRAME AND
LIFT THE BAROCLINIC ZONE NORTH AND EAST AS A WESTERLY UPPER FLOW
BRIEFLY TAKES HOLD. THIS BRINGS A BAND OF SNOW MAINLY ACROSS
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THANKSGIVING NIGHT...INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THEN MODELS DIVERGE ONCE
AGAIN AS THE COLD AIR DROPS SOUTH FROM CANADA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF BRING THE COLD AIR SOUTH. THE
DIFFERENCE IS THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW MOVING THROUGH THE AREA
AHEAD OF THE COLD AIR ON FRIDAY...AND THE PLACEMENT OF THE POLAR JET
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BUT BY LATE SATURDAY AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
THE COLD AIR SHOULD BE IN CONTROL WITH LITTLE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL WEEKEND. WE WILL SEE IF
THIS HOLDS. PLEASE STAY TUNED AS WE HEAD INTO THIS BUSY TRAVEL WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 934 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA SUPPORTING SOME BANDS OF LOW
STRATUS AS RELATIVELY WARMER AIR MOVES OVER THE COLD DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN CENTRAL/EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO
HOW LONG THE STRATUS WILL LAST...BUT IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING KISN
WITH IFR CEILINGS. EXPECT AS MID CLOUDS MOVE EAST TODAY THE
STRATUS DECK MAY DISSIPATE BY NOON. OTHERWISE FEEL VFR WILL
PREDOMINATE THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY MVFR CONDITIONS IN CLOUDS
AND SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW AFTER 00Z KISN-KDIK-KMOT AND AFTER 06Z
KBIS-KJMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...WAA






USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.