000
FXUS63 KBIS 161143
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
643 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND RADAR TRENDS THE INHERITED SHORT TERM
FORECAST FOR TODAY IS RIGHT ON TRACK. NO CHANGES THIS CYCLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD ARE PRECIPITATION
TRENDS AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH TODAY.

CURRENTLY...A SURFACE LOW WAS AT THE BORDER OF CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA
AND NEBRASKA...WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDING NORTHWESTWARD TO
NEAR BOWMAN TO NEAR GLASGOW MONTANA. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP
INDICATES THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA. THESE FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD
TO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA/IOWA BY THIS EVENING. REGIONAL RADARS
INDICATED PRECIPITATION IN SOUTH DAKOTA...SKIMMING THE NORTH DAKOTA
COUNTIES ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER.

FARTHER NORTH WAS A ZONE OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ORIENTED
NORTHWEST-TO-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHWESTERN TO SOUTHEASTERN NORTH
DAKOTA - AND REGIONAL RADARS AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATED
LIGHT SNOW OCCURRING OVER NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TOWARDS HARVEY AND NORTH OF THE JAMESTOWN AREA. THIS ISENTROPIC
LIFTING WAS OCCURRING WITH STRONG EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS COINCIDENT
WITH STRONG SOUTHEASTERLY H850 WINDS. THIS LIFTING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE UNTIL MID/LATE MORNING...WHEN SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE
NORTHEASTERLY AND H850 WINDS BECOME STRONGEST OVER SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AND OVER MUCH OF SOUTH DAKOTA. THUS IT IS EXPECTED THAT
SNOW SHOULD BE TAPERING OFF FOR THE MOST PART OVER WESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BY NOON. LIGHT SNOW SOUTH OF THE JAMESTOWN AREA
SHOULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE SURFACE LOW AND
FORCING PROVIDED BY THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE.

EXPECTING SNOW TOTALS OF AROUND AN INCH OF SNOW NORTHWEST AND NORTH
CENTRAL TO 1-2 INCHES IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

LOOKING AT HIGHS TODAY ONLY IN THE 30S...AND LOWS TONIGHT IN THE
TEENS AND LOWER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

OF MOST INTEREST IN THE LONG TERM IS THE SIGNIFICANT WARM UP JUST
IN TIME FOR EASTER...AND THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH...LATE TUESDAY AND AGAIN LATE WEDNESDAY.

THE LONG TERM IS VERY ACTIVE WITH A SERIES OF OPEN WAVES PASSING
THROUGH. THAT SHOULD KEEP THEM MOVING ALONG. THE FIRST COMES IN
FOR THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND IS QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY THE SECOND
LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THESE BRING MIXED PRECIPITATION...
PREDOMINANTLY RAIN DURING THE DAY TIMES AND SNOW AT NIGHT. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE MINIMAL WITH MAYBE AN INCH WEST AND NORTH
WITH THE FIRST WAVE...AND AN INCH OR SO NORTH WITH THE SECOND.
THIS WOULD BE QUICK TO MELT DURING DAY TIMES AND WITH RAIN.

THAT IS FOLLOWED BY A SIGNIFICANT WARM UP FOR THE WEEKEND AND INTO
NEXT WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S...NEARING 70 SOUTH.

ON TUESDAY...LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES AND
MODELS DEPICT A SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL THERMAL RIDGE...AND INCREASE
IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON. CAPE NEARS 1500
J/KG ALONG THE SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER AND LI GOES TO -4 THERE. IF
THIS COMES TO PASS...I WOULD EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD
FRONT LATER TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. THAT LOW MEANDERS AROUND
THE DAKOTAS INTO THE END OF NEXT WEEK...AS THE MID LEVEL WAVE
CUTS OFF AND STALLS...WITH CONTINUED PRECIPITATION CHANCES...
CLOUDS...AND COOLER WEATHER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 640 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

EXPECTING MVFR...AND OCCASIONAL IFR...CIGS AND VSBYS IN -SN TO
CONTINUE FROM KMOT THROUGH KJMS THROUGH AT LEAST 18Z. OTHER SITES
WILL BE MVFR FOR CIGS WITH FLURRIES. GUSTY EAST WINDS WILL BACK TO
THE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z. EXPECT IMPROVING WEATHER AFTER
21Z.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JPM
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...JPM