Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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368
FXUS63 KBIS 041840
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1240 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

RAISED FORECAST HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREAS. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 928 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK...UPDATE FOR OBSERVATIONS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

SNOW HAS DIMINISHED TO FLURRIES ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
AND ADDED FLURRIES THERE THROUGH THE MORNING. CLEARING SKIES
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING HAS ALLOWED MIN TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO
THE SINGLE DIGITS. UPDATED THE GRIDS WITH THE CURRENT CONDITIONS
AND ADDED THE ABOVE MENTIONED FLURRIES JAMES RIVER VALLEY NORTH
THROUGH THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE SHORT TERM IS SNOW CHANCES THIS MORNING AND
TONIGHT.

EARLY THIS MORNING A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH
CONTINUED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA. SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW HAS DEVELOPED AS A RESULT ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES WILL QUICKLY
TAPPER OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. ONLY A LIGHT DUSTING IS
EXPECTED.

TONIGHT...ANOTHER WAVE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA.
THIS WAVE LOOKS TO BE ACCOMPANIED BY A MORE ROBUST SURFACE LOW.
ALL OF THE MAJOR MODELS INDICATE THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE LOW
WILL TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THEREFORE...IT APPEARS
THERE IS A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE THAT MOST LOCATIONS WILL SEE AN
ADDITIONAL LIGHT DUSTING TO AS MUCH AS ONE INCH OF SNOW THROUGH
TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CST THU FEB 4 2016

THE MAIN CONCERNS IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD INVOLVE THE STRONG WIND
EVENT NOW FORECAST FOR SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO SUNDAY AS THE MODELS
HAVE SPEEDED UP THE WINDS ARRIVAL.

BEGINNING FRIDAY...THE REMNANTS OF A PACIFIC SHORT WAVE MOVING
ACROSS THE ROCKIES WILL BE EXITING THE REGION. GLOBAL MODELS ALL
DEPICT SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS EASTERN
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALSO BE THE AREA OF LOW
LEVEL WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND WARM FRONT AS IT
LIFTS NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION. THE AFTERNOON HOURS HAVE
DIMINISHING POPS IN THE RELATIVE WARM SECTOR OF THE LOW.

SATURDAY STARTS OFF WITH GOOD CHINOOK FLOW WITHIN WHICH GUSTY WEST
TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP. GFS BUFKIT SOUNDINGS FOR DICKINSON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON SHOW THE LOWER PORTION OF A MIXED LAYER WIND
OVER 40 MPH. UPPED THE WINDS WEST OVER THE SUPERBLEND ON SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND NIGHT AS THE WINDS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN GUSTY
SATURDAY NIGHT AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO NOT SHOW AN INVERSION
DEVELOP.

SUNDAY LOOKS WINDY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION WITH POSSIBLY THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY THE STRONGEST. UPPED SNOW CHANCES TO LIKELY HERE AND
THE WIND AND SNOW IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED
THE HWO. FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES GENERALLY
EAST OF HIGHWAY 83.

THE WINDS WILL DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A SHARP BAROCLINIC ZONE SET UP ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA WITH WARM AIR TO THE WEST AND COLD EAST. ALTHOUGH KEPT
A DRY FORECAST PER THE SUPERBLEND THIS BAROCLINICITY OFTEN
SUPPORTS SMALL CHANCES OF SNOW ALMOST DAILY. LEFT DRY FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CST THU FEB 4 2016

MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED TO HOLD ON AT KJMS THROUGH AROUND 21 UTC.
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO BEGIN THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA TONIGHT BRINGING MVFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES IN SNOW FROM WEST TO EAST. BEGINNING
SHORTLY AFTER 00Z IN KISN AND KDIK...AND ENDING AT KJMS BY 18Z
FRIDAY. IN GENERAL ABOUT A 6-8 HR PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS AND/OR
VSBYS...WITH SOME IFR CIGS POSSIBLE. KMOT WILL BE ON THE NORTHERN
FRINGE OF THE SYSTEM AND AT THIS TIME HAVE KEPT MVFR CIGS OUT OF
MINOT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...TWH



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