Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 271759
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1259 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THE UPDATE. WARM CONDITIONS CONTINUE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPS IN THE 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S.
THE FRONT HAS CROSSED MINOT AND BISMARCK WITH WINDS GUSTY AND FROM
THE WEST OR NORTHWEST. WEAK LINE OF SHOWERS WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM MOVED INTO STUTSMAN BUT HAVE WEAKENED. SPC MESO
ANALYSIS PAGE SHOWS 30-50KTS OF EFFECTIVE SHEAR WITH 2000-3000
J/KG SB CAPE. LATEST HRRR TRIED TO BRING SOME CONVECTION FROM
ADAMS COUNTY ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...HOWEVER VIS IMAGERY DOES NOT SHOW ANY CU DEVELOPMENT AT
THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1143 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

QUICK UPDATE TO ADJUST POPS SLIGHTLY FOR AFTERNOON CONVECTION.
OVERALL...FORECAST IS ON TRACK. STARTING TO SEE SOME LIGHT RADAR
RETURNS OVER KIDDER COUNTY. LATEST SPC UPDATE TO DAY 1 HAS PUT THE
RED RIVER VALLEY INTO ENHANCED CATEGORY FOR SEVERE...BUT NO
CHANGES OVER OUR AREA WITH SLIGHT RISK AREA CLIPPING OUR FAR EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COUNTIES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS IN ROLETTE COUNTY HAVE EXITED THAT AREA OVER
THE LAST HOUR. BASED ON CURRENT RADAR...SATELLITE AND SHORT RANGE
MODELS...REMOVED LOW POPS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OTHERWISE...WEAK
FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH WILLISTON AS OF 14Z. 12Z NAM IS COMING IN
NOW AND APPEARS TO BE CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUN. MAIN ISSUE
TODAY WILL BE THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE.
HIGH RES MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INITIATION OF ISOLATED/SCATTERED
STORMS AFTER 18Z. NAM/GFS KEEP BEST COVERAGE ON CYCLONIC SHEAR
SIDE OF 110KT JET STREAK...MAINLY TO OUR EAST...THAT IS NOSING
INTO NORTH CENTRAL ND AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL 1000+
J/KG CAPE AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MAINLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY ISOLATED/SCATTERED COVERAGE
FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SPC HAS CONTINUED TO KEEP
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY IN SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THIS
AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 649 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS MUCH OF THE SHOWER / THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS DIMINISHED EARLY THIS MORNING. THE LATEST HRRR AND
RAP 13 STILL SUGGEST AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING IN THE CENTRAL AND EAST....SO WILL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE IN
THE FORECAST. DID NOT CHANGE MUCH FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUING TO FOCUS THE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
TOWARDS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

MAIN CONCERN IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING OVER EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...FROM THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS SOUTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS NORTHWESTERLY FLOW INTO
NORTH DAKOTA WITH A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE PUSHING THROUGH NORTHWEST
AND NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LOCAL RADAR SHOWS ISOLATED SHOWERS
DWINDLING...HOWEVER AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHEAST
SASKATCHEWAN AND SOUTHWEST MANITOBA...WERE MOVING TOWARD THE
TURTLE MOUNTAINS BUT SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING. FARTHER
UPSTREAM...A STRONGER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WITH AN 80KT JET STREAK
OVER CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN WAS ALSO MOVING SOUTHEAST WITH TIME. AT
THE SURFACE...3HR PRESSURE FALLS WERE MAXIMIZED OVER SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA...AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT IN
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN AND NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA.

TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THE COLD FRONT WILL DETERMINE THE
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SUGGEST THE GREATEST RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER
RESIDES IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY...WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY NORTH IN
THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THE GLOBAL MODELS KEEP THE BEST DYNAMICS
EAST...WHERE THE SHORTWAVE AND JET STREAK WILL INTERACT WITH
HIGHER INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE SLIGHT
RISK PER SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK. HOWEVER CAPE VALUES RANGING
BETWEEN 1500-2000 J/KG AND 0-6KM BULK SHEAR OF 45KT TO 55KT ARE
FORECAST ACROSS THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...NEAR OR JUST PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE CAPE/SHEAR
VALUES DECREASE NORTH INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS...BUT STILL MAY
POSE A THREAT...ALBEIT A LESSER THREAT AS MENTIONED ABOVE. LATEST
SPC CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK HAS A SHARP GRADIENT BETWEEN
GENERAL/MARGINAL/SLIGHT RISK OVER EAST CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY...WHICH COULD CHANGE LATER THIS MORNING AS NEWER DATA
BECOMES AVAILABLE. FOR NOW...HAVE INJECTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
WORDING INTO THE FORECAST PRODUCTS FROM NEAR THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
SOUTH INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY. OTHERWISE NORTHWEST FLOW WITH
EMBEDDED SHORTWAVES AHEAD OF THE MAIN FEATURE THIS AFTERNOON WILL
LIKELY RENEW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS IN CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. HAVE INCLUDED THIS IN THE
MORNING FORECAST. NORTHWEST WINDS 15KT TO 25KT WILL DEVELOP BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON WEST AND CENTRAL. DRY CONDITIONS
WEST TODAY. H85 TEMPS WARM BY ANOTHER 3C TO 4C WHICH YIELDS
AFTERNOON HIGHS IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 259 AM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO START THE LONG TERM PERIOD...THOUGH
CAN`T COMPLETELY RULE OUT A ROGUE SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM SUNDAY
NIGHT AS PER THE GFS. BY MONDAY NIGHT...WEST / NORTHWEST FLOW WILL
BE IN PLACE ALOFT WITH PERIODIC WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WILL GENERALLY FOLLOW A MODEL BLEND WHICH KEEPS A CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES WILL START OUT ON THE WARM SIDE OF AVERAGE...WITH
MONDAY APPEARING TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD. THE REST OF
THE WEEK SHOULD BE RELATIVELY SEASONABLE WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S
TO LOWER 80S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1259 PM CDT SAT JUN 27 2015

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE TIME PERIOD. COLD FRONT IS
CROSSING THE STATE WITH WINDS SHIFTING FROM THE NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT. CONTINUED VCTS FOR KBIS AND KJMS THROUGH LATE
AFTERNOON. THE BEST CHANCE FOR A THUNDERSTORM WOULD BE NEAR KJMS
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...JNS


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