Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 040017
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
617 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 606 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

THIS UPDATE WILL END THE WIND ADVISORY AND WILL BEGIN THE WIND
CHILL ADVISORIES THAT WILL EVENTUALLY COVER THE REGION BY MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. ADDED SOME EVENING FLURRIES ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST.
ALSO FOLLOWING SOME SNOW IN SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE
TRENDS ACROSS SOUTHEAST SASKATCHEWAN. THIS APPEARS TO BE
ASSOCIATED WITH INSTABILITY WITH THE COLDEST AIR ALOFT. THIS AREA
OF SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTO THE WEST CENTRAL
THIS EVENING. ALREADY HAD CHANCE OF SNOW WEST THIS EVENING BUT
ENHANCED THE POPS A BIT FOR THIS FEATURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

WINDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE CURRENT WIND ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD
SO WILL LEAVE IT ALONE FOR THIS UPDATE.

STRATOCU HAS DEVELOPED OVER MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS/FLURRIES HAVE DEVELOPED
UNDER SOME OF THESE CLOUDS. AS A RESULT...ADDED SCATTERED FLURRIES
TO THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST.

A VORT LOBE ROTATING INTO NORTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WILL GENERATE
A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WEST THIS EVENING.
HOWEVER...ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT...IF ANY AT ALL.

THE COMBINATION OF NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AND ARCTIC AIR FILTERING
INTO THE REGION WILL GENERATE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS OVER WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. ISSUED
A WIND CHILL ADVISORY FOR THE ENTIRE CWA FOR THE AFOREMENTIONED
TIME PERIOD AS A RESULT.

WEDNESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY AND COLD WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO
BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 320 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL BE LINGERING
COLD TEMPERATURES AND FRIGID WIND CHILLS WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN A
NICE WARMING TREND WILL HIGHLIGHT THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED
FORECAST.

WIND CHILL HEADLINES WILL BE LIKELY AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING NORTH AND EAST AS SUBZERO TEMPERATURES COUPLE
WITH WINDS TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS. WE WILL HOLD OFF ON
ISSUING THESE HEADLINES WITH CURRENT WIND CHILL HEADLINES IN
PLACE FOR TONIGHT.

ARCTIC AIRMASS PROPAGATES INTO THE EASTERN CONUS THURSDAY ONWARDS AS
A LONG WAVE TROUGH PROGRESSIVELY PUSHES EASTWARD. AFTERWARDS OUR
FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST AGAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
PRECIPITATION FOR THE END OF THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND IF ANY
EMBEDDED WAVE TRACKS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR REGION. MODELS REMAIN IN
AGREEMENT FOR A VERY NICE WARMING TREND EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK AS
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND INTO
GREAT PLAINS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 606 PM CST TUE MAR 3 2015

COLD SURGE OF ARCTIC AIR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE
REGION THIS EVENING. THIS WILL SUPPORT STRATO CU ACROSS MOST OF
THE REGION. ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN LOW VFR...AN AREA OF
SNOW ACROSS SOUTHEAST SASK THIS EVENING WILL MOVE OVER WESTERN
NORTH DAKOTA BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS INTO THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING THROUGH INO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. THEN GENERALLY VFR
AFTER 14Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ TONIGHT TO
NOON CST /11 AM MST/ WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ017>023-025-031>037-
040>048-050-051.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST WEDNESDAY FOR NDZ001>005-
009>013.

&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...TM
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...WAA





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