Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 272037

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
337 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

Latest water vapor imagery loop shows an upper level high
circulation over northern Utah with ridging extending northeast
through Montana and into southern Saskatchewan and western
Manitoba. Models continue to show heights building with the ridge
amplifying across western and central ND tonight through
Wednesday. This is in response to a closed low sagging south from
the Great Lakes into the Ohio Valley. The end result will be sunny
and warmer weather conditions Wednesday with highs ranging from 63
in the Turtle Mountains to 74 in the southwest.

Will not mention any frost tonight as the coolest air will be focused
into eastern ND, and just graze our eastern counties, from the
Turtle Mountains south into the James River Valley. Only expect an
hour or possibly two hours where temperatures will drop to around
37 degrees, which is on the upper bound of the frost advisory
criteria. Based on this, will not issue and highlights at this time.
The evening shift can re-evaluate this again for possible changes.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

Water vapor today also shows an upper low circulating across
southern Arizona. This low is currently cutoff from the main
westerlies to the north, but as a deepening upper trough sinks
south from the Gulf Of Alaska, the cutoff low get picked up is
pushed northeast on the western side of the upper ridge mentioned
in the short term period. Dry weather will prevail Wednesday night
through Thursday evening, with chances of showers and possible
thunderstorms creeping into the west Thursday night, as a 40kt 850mb
flow southerly jet becomes established. Most unstable cape and
0-6km shear values on both the GFS and ECMWF will yield at least a
slight chance of thunderstorm mention Thursday night across the
west. The upper wave shifts across central ND Friday but weakens
at the same time. Ridging briefly returns again Saturday for a dry
day before the aforementioned west coast trough sends successive
shortwave troughs through western and central ND Sunday into
Monday, with another shortwave possibly by midweek; however by the
Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe the GFS and ECMWF depart on overall
timing and placement of the shortwaves.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 337 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2016

VFR conditions are forecast across western and central North
Dakota for the 18 UTC TAF cycle. There is a slight chance low
level stratus across northwest Minnesota this afternoon may push
far enough west to impact KJMS late tonight into Wednesday morning.
However, this remains highly uncertain.




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