000
FXUS63 KBIS 230358
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
958 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 957 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

QUICK UPDATE FOR POPS BASED ON CURRENT RADAR...KEPT A LITTLE
HIGHER POPS NORTH CENTRAL THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE EARLY
OVERNIGHT HOURS. LATEST RAP SHOWS PRECIP HOLDING ON THROUGH AROUND
06-07 UTC WHICH AGREES WITH CURRENT FORECAST. LATEST HRRR HOLDS
PRECIP TOGETHER A LITTLE LONGER AND DROPS IT FARTHER SOUTH. IF
THIS WOULD HOLD TRUE AND PRECIP DOES NOT EVAPORATE...WE COULD SEE
A FEW FREEZING SPRINKLES OR LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS REFLECTIVITIES
DROP SOUTH TOWARD GARRISON...HARVEY AND CARRINGTON. THATS A BIG
IF...AND WOULD STILL BE TALKING ABOUT ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS. WILL
KEEP ANY ACCUMULATING PRECIP CONFINED TO THE NORTH CENTRAL FOR NOW
AND PASS ALONG TO THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 842 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

SHOWERS HAVE INTENSIFIED ACROSS SOUTHWEST MB INTO NORTH CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING AND HAVE BUMPED UP POPS FROM AROUND
SHERWOOD EAST THROUGH BOTTINEAU AND THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS TO
BELCOURT. QUITE A BIT OF DRY AIR BELOW THE PRECIPITATION AND
QUICK MOVEMENT WILL LIKELY YIELD MAINLY TRACE AMOUNTS. A FEW AREAS
COULD SEE A HUNDREDTH OR TWO. WARM FRONT HAS PUSHED INTO NORTHEAST
NORTH DAKOTA THUS TEMPERATURES ARE MAINLY IN THE MID 30S...AND
SHOULD REMAIN STEADY WITH A MODERATE WEST TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE
FLOW. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE MAINLY SPRINKLES/RAIN SHOWERS.
WITH A SMALL PROBABILITY OF SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AROUND
MIDNIGHT...BEFORE PRECIP TAPERS OFF AND MOVES EAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 605 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

NO SIGNIFICANT UPDATES TO THE EARLY EVENING FORECAST. SURFACE LOW
TRACKING EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA. VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION
EXTENDING FROM BRANDON SOUTHWEST TO WEYBURN AND JUST CLIPPING THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER FROM CROSBY TO SHERWOOD. CURRENT TEMPERATURES
ARE ABOVE FREEZING AND EXPECTED PRECIPITATION WILL BE MAINLY TRACE
AMOUNTS. AT THIS TIME NO SIGNIFICANT HAZARDS EXPECTED...BUT WILL
MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A MIX OF RAIN...SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN DROPPING
SOUTHEAST INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATER TONIGHT. UPDATED TEXT
PRODUCTS OUT SHORTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW PUSHING THROUGH NORTHERN
MANITOBA WITH HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING
THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN INTO CENTRAL MONTANA. A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA WITH
THIS SYSTEM.

FOR TONIGHT...AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA
WHICH WILL BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY TO NORTHERN INTO
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THOUGH THE WAVE IS QUITE WEAK SO WILL LEAVE
CHANCES ON THE LOW SIDE. SOUNDING ANALYSIS SUGGESTS MAINLY RAIN
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FREEZING RAIN IF IT IS
PRECIPITATING WHEN TEMPS DROP BELOW FREEZING. SKIES WILL START
CLEARING IN THE WAKE OF THE WAVE AS IT PASSES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.

ON FRIDAY...QUIET WEATHER IS EXPECTED AS UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST
CONTINUES TO BE THE DOMINATE FEATURE AND REGION IS BETWEEN SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE MILD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT CHANCES RAIN...FREEZING RAIN
AND SNOW HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE WEST COAST WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP THE MAJORITY OF THE ARCTIC
AIR BOTTLED UP AROUND THE HUDSON BAY. FOR OUR AREA TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S ACROSS THE EASTERN JAMES VALLEY
AND UPPER 40S ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. TEMPERATURES IN THE 50S
ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SEVERAL WEAK CLIPPERS WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE FIRST SUCH CLIPPER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
AREA SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH THE OTHER TWO ARRIVING MONDAY AND
THURSDAY.

FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...LATEST GUIDANCE SEEMS TO HAVE TAKEN A STEP
BACKWARD AS FAR AS CONSISTENCY AND AGREEMENT ARE CONCERNED. THE 12
UTC ECMWF IS MORE PROGRESSIVE AND BULLISH WITH QPF AMOUNTS ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WHEREAS THE GFS AND SREF ARE
SLOWER AND MAINLY DRY. THE NAM INITIALLY KEEPS PRECIP OUT OF THE
AREA AS THE CLIPPER SLIDES ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...BUT THEN
BRINGS SOME WRAP-AROUND PRECIP INTO WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. DUE TO
THE WIDE RANGE OF MODEL SOLUTIONS CONFIDENCE ON ANY PARTICULAR
SCENARIO IS RATHER LOW. THEREFORE...KEPT PRECIP CHANCES BELOW 25
PERCENT THROUGH SUNDAY. LOOKING AT FORECAST SOUNDING PROFILES IT
WOULD APPEAR THAT THE MOST FAVORED PRECIP TYPE (IF PRECIPITATION
DOES IN FACT FORM) WOULD BE RAIN ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA.
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE FURTHER EAST...A
MIX OF FREEZING DRIZZLE OR SNOW FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND
EAST OF HWY 281. WITH QPF AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT...OR
POTENTIALLY NONEXISTENT DEPENDING ON WHAT GUIDANCE YOU
BELIEVE...IMPACTS SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 957 PM CST THU JAN 22 2015

LCL -RA/-FZRA WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF FAR
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...THOUGH CHANCES FOR THIS REMAIN
QUITE LOW. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. MODERATE
SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW TONIGHT SHIFTING WEST TO NORTHWEST ON
FRIDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH