Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS63 KBIS 070344
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
944 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 944 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

THE SOUTHERN END OF THE POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS CENTRAL
ND AT MID EVENING IS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER EXPECTED...
SO WE MADE MINOR POP ADJUSTMENTS THROUGH ABOUT 08 UTC TO ACCOUNT
FOR THAT AND RECENT RAP AND HRRR SIMULATIONS. OTHERWISE...WE
MERELY BLENDED OBSERVATIONS INTO THE NEAR-TERM HOURLY FORECAST
FIELDS WITH THIS UPDATE WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF OVERALL CHANGE.
NO CHANGES TO OUR HEADLINES...BUT THE BRUNT OF STRONG WINDS IS NOT
EXPECTED UNTIL SUNDAY WHEN MOMENTUM TRANSFER INTO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WILL BE MORE UNIFORMLY EFFICIENT ACROSS THE AREA...UNLIKE
THIS EVENING. BLIZZARD POTENTIAL WILL BE DRIVEN ENTIRELY BY THE
AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT FALLS WITHIN THE BLIZZARD-WARNED...WITH THE
00 UTC NAM MUCH MORE SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW SHOWERS THAN RECENT RAP
AND HRRR RUNS. THE LATTER MODELS SUGGEST THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THAT PART OF THE FORECAST.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 623 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

WE INCREASED LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT TONIGHT GIVEN EXPECTED MIXING
AND ONLY MODEST LOW-LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION BASED ON TEMPERATURE
TRENDS UPSTREAM INTO SOUTHERN CANADA THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON. ONLY
MINOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE REST OF THE EVENING FORECAST...AS
SHOWERS ARE INCREASING OVER NORTHWEST ND AND WINDS ARE BEGINNING
TO TREND UPWARD ON A MORE WIDESPREAD BASIS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
THAT IS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL ND AS OF 0015 UTC. WE ARE
MAKING NO CHANGES TO THE HIGH WIND OR BLIZZARD WARNING WITH THIS
UPDATE CYCLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES LOW STRETCHING OVER SASKATCHEWAN
WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH NORTHERN MINNESOTA. TROUGH
CONTINUES TO SLIDE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS WHILE COLD FRONT IS
WORKING ITS WAY OVER EASTERN MONTANA. GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY DEVELOP OVER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA WHILE STRONG GUSTS HAVE
DEVELOPED OVER EASTERN/CENTRAL MONTANA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
PLACES RIDGE AXIS SLIDING INTO THE EASTERN PART OF THE STATE WITH
TROUGH WORKING ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN INTO EASTERN MONTANA. BROAD
AREA OF VERY LIGHT RAIN/VIRGA CONTINUES TO WORK OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA BEHIND THE RIDGE.

FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...WEAK SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE TO THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS HAVE COME
INTO FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING THE UPCOMING WIND/SNOW
EVENT. AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST/SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT WITH UPPER LOW CLOSING OFF OVER NORTHERN MINNESOTA BY
EARLY SUNDAY. AS IT MOVES ACROSS...COLDER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE
REGION AND WRAP AROUND SNOW WILL DEVELOP TO ITS WEST...PRIMARILY
OVER PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE NORTHERN
JAMES RIVER VALLEY. WHILE THAT OCCURS...COOLER AIRMASS WILL SLIDE
INTO THE AREA WHICH WILL PROMOTE MIXING OF STRONG WINDS ALOFT DOWN
TO THE SURFACE. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW 50-60KT 850 MB
WINDS. EXPECT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. HAVE LEFT THE HIGH WIND WARNING MAINLY IN
TACT BUT HAVE BUMPED UP THE TIMING A BIT FOR THE SOUTHEASTERN END.
THE WIND WILL COMBINE WITH THE DEVELOPING SNOW OVER THE NORTH
CENTRAL/NORTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY TO BRING GREATLY REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. THEREFORE...BLIZZARD WARNING REMAINS UNTOUCHED.

ON SUNDAY...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA WITH A
SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR ADVECTION PUSHING IN BY MID-DAY.
PERIODS OF SNOW EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER AREA UNDER BLIZZARD
WARNING. ALTHOUGH ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT
SIDE...WITH THE STRONG WINDS IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO RESULT IN
ZERO VISIBILITY IN OPEN COUNTRY.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 237 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

RESIDUAL BLOWING SNOW WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE EAST
ASSOCIATED WITH THE STRONG WINDS AND LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SUNDAY
NIGHT. H850 WINDS ARE STILL PROGGED TO BE AT 50-60 KNOTS FROM THE
GFS SUNDAY EVENING...THEN WEAKENS A BIT. WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH BUT
SLOWLY SUNDAY NIGHT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE BLIZZARD WARNING (WHICH
IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING) MAY NEED TO BE "CHANGED" TO
A HIGH WIND WARNING OR A WIND ADVISORY AT THE TAIL END OF THE EVENT.
MODELS ARE INDICATING LINGERING STRONG WINDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND DURING
THE DAY MONDAY...BUT MAY NOT REACH WIND ADVISORY CRITERIA DURING THE
DAYTIME HOURS MONDAY.

THEREAFTER THE UPPER LOW EXITS THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP INTO A LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES
SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST WITH A LARGE H500 RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
CONUS AND CANADA. THIS LEAVES A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS WHICH WILL PRETTY MUCH DEFINE THE EXTENDED PERIOD
WITH MILD AIR SOUTHWEST AND COLD TEMPERATURES EAST. NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT WITH SEVERAL PERTURBATIONS WILL RESULT IN SOME SCATTERED LIGHT
SNOW DURING THE WEEK...BUT NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 944 PM CST SAT FEB 6 2016

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT...AND WILL BE VERY
STRONG ON SUNDAY WHEN WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 40 TO 55 KT ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ND. A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS IS
EXPECTED TONIGHT...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN MANY AREAS ON
SUNDAY WITH LOWERING CEILINGS AND SOME SNOW SHOWERS. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE REDUCED AT TIMES IN THE SNOW SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN PARTS
OF CENTRAL ND WHERE THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL LIKELY BE MOST INTENSE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST /5 AM MST/ MONDAY FOR NDZ003-
011-012-019>022-034-042-045.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 9 PM CST /8 PM MST/ SUNDAY FOR NDZ001-
002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

BLIZZARD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ004-005-013-023-
025.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 6 AM CST MONDAY FOR NDZ035>037-046>048-
050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CJS
SHORT TERM...JJS
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...CJS


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.