Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 171128
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
628 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

PRECIPITATION OVER FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUES TO
DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES EAST...WHICH IS REFLECTED WELL IN ONGOING
POPS. SOME PATCHY FOG CONTINUES TO LOITER AROUND THE CWA...AND
WILL CONTINUE THRU THE EARLY MORNING. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

HYDROLOGY AND THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS RULE THE SHORT TERM.

ADVISORIES FOR FLOODING HAVE ALL BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BASED ON
REPORTS FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT AND THE LACK OF RAIN OVER THE PAST
EIGHT HOURS OR SO IN THOSE ADVISORY AREAS.

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOKS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE APPLE CREEK IN
BURLEIGH COUNTY...AND THE KNIFE RIVER BASIN...MAINLY THROUGH
MERCER COUNTY. APPLE CREEK WAS PERFORMING WELL BELOW EXPECTATIONS
WHILE THE KNIFE LOOKS LIKE IT WILL APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE BUT
MAY NOT MAKE IT TO THAT DEFINED FLOOD LEVEL.

WILL BE REMOVING A FEW WESTERN COUNTIES FROM THE FLOOD WARNING IN
THE CENTRAL PART OF WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AND LIKELY EXTENDING
IN TIME THROUGH SUNDAY THE EASTERN PART OF THAT WARNING.

HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN MONTANA
AND BRING THEM THROUGH WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS
AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE APPROACHING...AND
THE CUT OFF MID LEVEL COOL POOL OVER SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN
INCREASING DEEP LAYER SHEAR. INSTABILITY AND CAPE BECOME
SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE WEATHER ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 2 PM CDT AND 7 PM
CDT.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

LOW/TROF CONTINUES ITS EASTWARD PROGRESSION INTO MONDAY WITH PRECIP
CONTINUING TO TAPER FROM WEST TO EAST IN THE MORNING. IN THE
AFTERNOON...SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR AS THE AREA REMAINS UNDER
CYCLONIC FLOW...THOUGH MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD DRY OUT BY EVENING. A SHORT
LIVED DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS A FAST
MOVING SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. UPPER FLOW STARTS TO
SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY TUESDAY EVENING AS RIDGE PUSHES EAST AND TROF
OVER THE WESTERN CONUS DEEPENS. CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION THEN
STEADILY INCREASE THROUGH MID-WEEK AS A VARIETY OF WAVES MOVE
THROUGH THE FLOW...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCES COMING LATE WEDNESDAY
AS A SFC LOW/BOUNDARY SHIFTS THROUGH THE AREA. MODELS THEN HAVING
TROUBLE WITH THE TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS FOR THE END OF THE
WEEK...BUT GENERAL CONSENSUS IS AN ACTIVE PATTERN SO WILL KEEP POPS
IN THE FORECAST. NEAR AVERAGE TEMPS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH
MODELS ADVERTISING A COOLING TREND FOR THE END OF THE WEEK/WEEKEND.
WILL HAVE TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS TO SEE HOW SIGNIFICANT OF A COOL
DOWN THIS WILL BE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 420 AM CDT SUN AUG 17 2014

LOW CIGS AND FOG WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
THROUGH EARLY MORNING TO MOST TERMINALS OVER NORTH DAKOTA.
CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE BY MID MORNING...THOUGH SCT SHRA/TSRA WILL
START TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN ND BY MID-DAY...SPREADING EAST AND
INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY INTO THE EVENING. LCL IFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED IN THE HEAVIER PRECIP. ALSO...THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL THIS
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...JJS






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