Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 102043
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
343 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Scattered thunderstorms west Friday highlight the extended
forecast.

A few isolated showers are possible across the James River Valley
late this afternoon where relatively higher surface dewpoints in
the mid 50s are in place. Otherwise, a quiet overnight is expected
with surface high pressure. For Friday, scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected across the west with a few impulses
arriving ahead of the stronger wave across north central Montana
and southern Alberta and Saskatchewan. Overall instability is
expected to be weak per the 12 UTC GFS and 18 UTC NAM, and
widespread severe weather is not expected. However, given a higher
shear environment and inverted-v soundings, there is a non-zero
severe wind gust potential.



.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Continued showers and thunderstorms west and south central Friday
night into Saturday, with a possibly more active convective
pattern early/mid next week highlight the extended forecast.

Showers and thunderstorms will continue Friday night into Saturday
across predominately western and south central North Dakota as the
aforementioned shortwave from the short term slowly propagates
southeast and weakens. Again, overall instability is weak and
severe weather is not expected. The 12 UTC global suite is in
agreement on shortwave ridging on Monday across the region with
mean southwest flow aloft late Monday through Wednesday. This
would suggest a bit more active of a convective pattern is
possible and will have to be monitored for severe potential.


&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 309 PM CDT Thu Aug 10 2017

Bkn/sct low vfr cigs at KDIK/KBIS/KJMS through 00z Friday, otherwise
few/sct clouds this Taf period. Winds at or below 10kt.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...PA
LONG TERM...PA
AVIATION...KS



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