Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 220929
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
329 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

FOCUS IN THE SHORT TERM IS ON CURRENT FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN SOUTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA EARLY THIS MORNING. THEN ATTENTION TURNS TO
SHORTWAVE ENERGY TONIGHT BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MIXED
PRECIPITATION NORTH AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.

CURRENTLY...A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN
ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ALONG THE
FRONT RANGE TO CENTRAL MONTANA AND WYOMING. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS HAD
DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHWEST HALF OF NORTH DAKOTA IN RESPONSE TO
THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE STATE
WAS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEPARTING HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS.
LIGHT WINDS AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING QUICKLY TO ZERO TO 10 ABOVE
HERE WITH PATCHY FOG HAVE PLAGUED THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE.

TODAY THE CANADIAN SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST AND
REACHES NORTHERN MANITOBA BY THIS EVENING. THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES EAST ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
TODAY. EXPECTING INCREASING SOUTHWEST WINDS TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES - HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S MOST
AREAS AND REACHING 40 IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST. A LARGE AREA OF MID
CLOUDS IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE MAKING FOR A
PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY.

TONIGHT AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHEAST ALONG
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW AND MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE. THIS
SYSTEM WILL DRAG A WEAK SURFACE FRONT SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE.
THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE INDICATING ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE FOR SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION. THE MID LEVEL AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES DURING THE NIGHTTIME HOURS WILL HOVER AROUND THE
FREEZING MARK - AND EXPECT A MIX OF RAIN...SNOW...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SOME FREEZING RAIN AS WELL. FORECAST MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST...ALONG
WITH A RAPIDLY PROPAGATING CLIPPER ON SATURDAY.

HIGHS IN THE 30S AND 40S ARE FORECAST ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST AS THE NORTHERN PLAINS
IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MEAN
WESTERN CONUS UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THE 00 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE
CONTINUES TO DEPICT A RAPIDLY PROPAGATING CLIPPER SYSTEM TO IMPACT
THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
NIGHT. OVERALL...THE GREATEST QPF TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA...CO-LOCATED
WITH THE STRONGEST UPPER LEVEL FORCING. GIVEN HIGHS FORECAST TO BE
IN THE 40S WEST...AND 30S CENTRAL ON SATURDAY...MOSTLY RAIN IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST...WITH A RAIN AND SNOW MIX
CENTRAL...ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET. FORECAST QPF TOTALS ARE MINIMAL
WITH LITTLE TO NO SNOW ACCUMULATION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 329 AM CST THU JAN 22 2015

A BAND OF MVFR CLOUDS HAS MOVED OUT OF KMOT TO THE EAST...SO NOT
THREAT TO KISN OR KMOT. MVFR CLOUDS WERE DEVELOPING IN EASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...AND MAY MOVE/DEVELOP NORTHWARD TO AFFECT KJMS. INCREASED
SURFACE MOISTURE FROM MELTING OF RECENT SNOW WAS BRINGING PATCHY FOG
TO KBIS AS WELL AS LINTON...AND EXPECT KJMS TO HAVE PATCHY FOG AS
WELL. AT THE BISMARCK AIRPORT THE PATCHY FOG HAS BEEN DENSE AT TIMES
WITH VSBY REPORTED AT 1/4 MILE. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO LINGER UNTIL
SOUTHWEST WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH TIME EARLY THIS MORNING.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW WILL INCREASE THIS MORNING AND
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. VFR CEILINGS EXPECTED AT
KISN AT 12Z...SPREADING SOUTHEAST AND REACHING KJMS AROUND 21Z.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV








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