Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 252047
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
347 PM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

Main forecast issue in the short term period will be possible
thunderstorm chances late this afternoon through Tuesday.

Currently, sunny skies across western and central ND. The
exception being an area of cu development over the far southwest.
Instability continues to increase across central ND with mlcapes
approaching 2000-2500 j/kg. However, lapse rates are not
impressive and bulk shear is lacking most areas. In the north
central where there is an area of impressive shear is where lapse
rates are the lowest. Convection-allowing models are still
indicating isolated convection from mainly Sioux/Grant counties
in the far south central, into the James River Valley and into
east central/northeast ND. Will utilize a time-lagged blend of
short term models for late afternoon/evening pops, which is
yielding 20-30 pops in this general area through mid evening. The
potential for severe weather appears limited given the meager
shear and mid level lapse rates. But due to the unstable
conditions, a briefly severe thunderstorm can not be ruled out.

The boundary that convection fires on this afternoon/evening
becomes nearly stationary just south of south central/southeast
ND late tonight and Tuesday. This will set up a moist easterly
flow along and north of the boundary, keeping the chance for
showers and thunderstorms across southern ND through tonight and
Tuesday. Surface high pressure north of this boundary currently
over southern Alberta/Saskatchewan will move east into Manitoba
Tuesday bringing more stable conditions into the northern half of
ND Tuesday. After lows around 60 tonight, highs will range from
the upper 70s north to the upper 80s southwest on Tuesday. The
threat for severe weather on Tuesday will be marginal with the
best chances over the southern half of the state.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

A persistent eastern Canadian trough and Western N.A ridge will
maintain a nearly stationary boundary from the northern Rockies
into the northern and central Plains. This will keep the risk of
showers and thunderstorms in the forecast through the work week.
For western and central ND the best chances for precipitation
will be across the west and south central, while the north central
will see limited chances. By the weekend the western ridge begins
to build over the central U.S. perhaps bringing a little drier
weather, but with warming temperatures, at least a slight chance
of diurnally driven thunderstorms will remain through the upcoming
weekend. As for temperatures, we cool down into the 70s and lower
80s Wednesday through Friday but then warm back into the 80s and
lower 90s over the weekend, into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 347 PM CDT Mon Jul 25 2016

VFR conditions are expected through the 18Z TAF period. We expect
isolated thunderstorms in the late afternoon and evening far south
central into the southeast. Confidence in the exact location of
storms is modest but has increased enough to feel confident about
not including VCTS at KISN...KMOT and KDIK. KBIS and KJMS will
have the highest probability of a storm, mainly between 22 and 03
UTC but here we are not confident enough to add a VCTS at this
time.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...TWH



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