Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 242049
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
349 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

BESIDES ONGOING FLOOD ISSUES...THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IN THE
SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE DEALING WITH THE SLOW MOVING STORM
SYSTEM OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR MINOT WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
NORTHEAST MONTANA CONTINUES TO LIFT VERY SLOWLY NORTH. LATEST
RADAR AND LIGHTNING PRODUCTS SHOW SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST. HAVE TRIMMED
BACK THE POPS A BIT LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BUT AS THE UPPER LOW
FINALLY LIFTS NORTHEAST ACROSS NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...CHANCES
SHOULD INCREASE TONIGHT OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN TIER COUNTIES.

BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT BEHIND THE
EXITING SURFACE LOW. GRADIENT WINDS AND ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM BOTTOMING OUT OVER WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA...WHICH IS A GOOD THING SINCE CURRENT FORECAST LOWS ARE IN
THE MID 40S.

CHANCE OF SHOWERS CONTINUES ON MONDAY ACROSS THE NORTH AS THE
UPPER LOW FINALLY LIFTS NORTHEAST OUT OF MANITOBA AND INTO
ONTARIO.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

FOLLOWING THE LARGE HEAVY RAIN-PRODUCING SYSTEM THAT WILL HAVE
LIFTED NORTHEAST OUT OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS FORECAST TO ENTER EASTERN MONTANA/WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
TUESDAY. A SHORTWAVE AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD GENERATE A CHANCE
OF SHOWERS...MAINLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-94 TUESDAY. AS THE TROUGH
AXIS PIVOTS THROUGH THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT...DRY CONDITIONS ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE. COOL EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS
TUESDAY MORNING IN THE 40S...WITH HIGHS TUESDAY IN THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70.

A WARMING TREND ALONG WITH DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AS WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. HIGHS SHOULD BE IN THE LOW TO MID 80S ACROSS THE
REGION BY FRIDAY.

THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BREAK DOWN BY SATURDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH TRAVERSING THE ROCKIES.
SHORTWAVES IN THE UPPER FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. HIGHS 75 TO 85 WITH LOWS IN THE
50S TO LOWER 60S SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT KISN-KMOT THROUGH
THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS AT KDIK SHOULD LIFT TO LOW VFR
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT THEN DROP BACK TO MVFR LATE THIS EVENING.
KBIS AND KJMS EXPECTED VFR CONDITIONS TODAY AND THIS EVENING WITH
MVFR CEILINGS MOVING INTO THESE AREAS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MID
MORNING MONDAY. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SURFACE FLOW 15 TO 25 KNOTS
MOST AREAS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT WEST TO NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND
CONTINUE MONDAY.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT SUN AUG 24 2014

THE HEAVY RAINS IN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS HAVE CAUSED OVERLAND
FLOODING...AS WELL AS RISES IN CREEKS...RIVERS...AND STREAMS IN
PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA - ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE
MISSOURI RIVER. SIOUX...GRANT...AND WESTERN MORTON COUNTIES SAW
LARGE AREAS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN.

AN AREAL FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PARTS OF WESTERN MORTON
COUNTY AND PARTS OF NORTHERN GRANT COUNTY. THESE AREAS INCLUDE THE
BIG MUDDY CREEK BETWEEN GLEN ULLIN AND ALMONT...SOUTHWARD TO
HEIL...CARSON...AND LARK. THESE AREAS CONTAIN SMALL CREEKS AND
STREAMS THAT ARE TRIBUTARIES TO THE HEART RIVER.

A RIVER FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR THE CANNONBALL RIVER AT BREIEN
AFFECTING MORTON AND SIOUX COUNTIES. THE RIVER IS EXPECTED TO FALL
BELOW FLOOD STAGE SOMETIME ON MONDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...JV
AVIATION...TWH
HYDROLOGY...JV






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