Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
142
FXUS63 KBIS 251149
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
649 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 649 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Main adjustments to the forecast surrounded rain chances this
morning. Early morning radar shows showers and a few thunderstorms
moving through western and central North Dakota. In general, the
thunderstorms have been well below severe limits early this
morning, though the storms in Grant county have shown some signs
of brief strengthening in the past hour. The latest meso-analysis
suggests a little more instability for the storms to work with as
they move northeast with MUCAPE around 1000 j/kg. Have increased
pops some in the south based on latest trends and short term
model solutions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Isolated to scattered showers along with isolated thunderstorms
is the weather highlight today. Highest chances for precipitation
is along and south of Interstate 94, with lower chances for
portions of the north this morning.

Latest water vapor imagery shows a zonal flow across western/central
North Dakota. Surface map shows a cold front from near Rolla,
southwest to Hazen, to Lemmon South Dakota. The cold front will
continue to push southeast early this morning, moving through
Bismarck/Mandan 09z-12z, and through the southern James River
Valley by 15z today. Instability continues this morning along and
south of the front, and shrinks through the morning, mainly
occupying a small area in the southern James River Valley this
afternoon. This is where SPC has the Marginal Severe Risk.

Upstream, a couple of mid/upper level shortwaves in eastern Montana
will shift across southern ND through early afternoon. SPC
mesoanalysis 925-850mb frontogenesis/forcing lines up well where
we have the radar returns. Bowman and regional radar indicate
areas of showers and isolated thunderstorms with these shortwaves.
The high resolution models as well as the operational NAM/GFS
show these areas of showers and isolated thunderstorms percolating
from time to time through 21z, with the highest pops along and
south of Interstate 94. High temperatures will be a bit tricky in
the above mentioned area, due to varying cloud cover and
precipitation. Highs overall will not be as hot, with low to mid
80s expected.

For tonight, dry weather with the last of the showers exiting the
far southern James River Valley in the evening. Overnight lows
will range from the mid 50s north to lower 60s far south central.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 303 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

Dry and warm weather Wednesday and Thursday with highs in the mid
to upper 80s. Chances for showers and thunderstorms return west
into central Friday through Saturday as a mid level shortwave
trough slides. Cape and Shear generally remain marginal for any
severe threat during this time period. Heights rise Sunday and
Monday resulting in mostly dry weather and highs in the 80s to
around 90.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 649 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2017

A tempo group for -shra through Tuesday morning has been included in
the KMOT/KBIS/KDIK Taf. Although a thunderstorm is possible, low
confidence kept any mention to vcts at this time. Showers may
extend and persist at KBIS/KJMS into early afternoon, and for now
have opted to mention a vcsh. The threat for showers and
thunderstorms diminishes quickly this evening with gradual
clearing Tuesday night.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...KS



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.