Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 151504
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
904 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT  856 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

MAIN CHANGE FOR MORNING UPDATE WAS TO EXTEND THE FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. VARIOUS LOCATIONS
THROUGHOUT THE AREA CONTINUE TO REPORT A LIGHT DRIZZLE AFTER A
PERIOD OF LIGHT SNOW...WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY LATEST RAP SOUNDING
ANALYSIS WHICH CONTINUES TO INDICATE DRYING AT MID-LEVELS WITH A
MOIST LOW LEVEL. UPDATES HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 634 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

LATEST RAPID UPDATE CYCLE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LOW LEVEL
SUPER COOLED WATER WITH DRY AIR ABOVE ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL.
SEEING BEACH AWOS WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AS WELL AS STANLEY AND
MANDAN. WILL NEED THE ADVISORY THROUGH 9 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE IS THE MAIN HIGHLIGHT IN THIS PERIOD.
AFTER COLLABORATING WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES HAVE OPTED TO EXTEND
THE ONGOING FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 15Z MONDAY FOR SOUTHWESTERN
AND MOST OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

NAM/GFS...AND ESPECIALLY THE NEAR TERM RAP13 BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
MAINTAIN A SATURATED LOW LEVEL SUBFREEZING LAYER WITH AMPLE LIFT
PER OMEGA FIELD TO KEEP A MENTION OF FREEZING PRECIPITATION GOING.
SOUNDINGS SHOW A TEMPORARY MOIST LAYER IN THE -8C TO -20C LAYER...BUT
THIS IS FORECAST TO WANE AND BECOME DRIER THROUGH MID MORNING.
THUS WITH AN ABSENT OF ICE CRYSTALS FORMING ALOFT...ATTENTION
TURNS BACK TO THE SATURATED LOWER LEVELS WHERE TEMPERATURES RANGE
BETWEEN -5C AND -10C. EXPECT MOSTLY SUPERCOOLED WATER DROPLETS
WITH LIGHT FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE. HOWEVER...SOME ICE CRYSTAL
FORMATION MAY OCCUR NEAR -10C SO LIGHT SNOW MAY ALSO DEVELOP AT
TIMES. BOTTOM LINE IS WITH LOW LEVEL LIFT BEING MAINTAINED IN THIS
SATURATED LAYER...THE THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FREEZING PRECIPITATION
WARRANTS AN EXTENSION THROUGH MID MORNING. IMPACT TO TRAVEL
REMAINS HAZARDOUS WITH SEVERAL NO TRAVEL ADVISORIES ISSUED
OVERNIGHT DUE TO ICY ROADS. BOWMAN RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
SHOW AN AREA OF SNOW MOVING SOUTH...WITH BEACH TRANSITIONING FROM
SNOW BACK TO FREEZING PRECIPITATION. ANY SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT...LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH...BUT WILL ADD TO ICY
CONDITIONS AND HAZARDOUS TRAVEL.

NORTHERN UPPER TROUGH PER LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WILL SWING THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA TODAY.
COLD AIR ADVECTION WITH BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 30 MPH
CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY. EXTENSIVE STRATUS DECK ACROSS EASTERN
ALBERTA...THROUGH SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST.
HAVE INCREASED SKY GRIDS TO REFLECT CLOUDY CONDITIONS TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. IN DOING SO OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS WERE INCREASED. THE DAY
SHIFT CAN RE-EVALUATE THIS LATER TODAY.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 313 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE EXTENDED WILL FEATURE AN H500 SEPARATION OF FLOW WITH A NORTHERN
AND SOUTHERN STREAM LEAVING THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN A RATHER WEAK
FLOW ALOFT. THIS BLOCKING PATTERN WILL CUT OFF THE MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH AND LEAVE JET STREAM ENERGY TOO FAR NORTH. WITH LITTLE IN
SHORT WAVE ENERGY TO BRING PRECIPITATION CHANCES THE EXTENDED PERIOD
IS LEFT DRY. AGAIN...CONCERNS ABOUT WEAK FLOW ALOFT AND LACK UP
UPPER LEVEL VENTILATION AND A STAGNANT AIR PATTERN THERE WILL BE
CONCERNS ABOUT LOW LEVEL STRATUS AND FOG. BEST OPTION HERE IS TI
DEAL WITH THESE FEATURES IF AND WHEN THEY DEVELOP. FOR NOW BEGAN THE
EXTENDED ON TUESDAY WITH RESIDUAL CLOUDINESS THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY
AS THE CIRCULATION AROUND AN UPPER LOW MAINTAINS A COOL AND MOIST
FLOW OVER THE STATE. AFTER TUESDAY THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES WEAK AS
THE GREAT LAKES LOW MOVES EAST AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS END UP
BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM FLOWS. A WEAK IMPULSE IN
THE SOUTHERN STREAM WILL BRUSH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS LEAVE THE NORTHERN PLAINS DRY WITH A SLOW
MODERATING TREND TO TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CST MON DEC 15 2014

LARGE SWATH OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
OCCASIONAL LIGHT FREEZING DRIZZLE AND/OR LIGHT SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED
AT KBIS/KDIK THROUGH MID MORNING WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS REMAINING
VERY LIGHT. BRISK NORTHERLY TO NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15KT TO 30KT MPH
WILL ALSO OCCUR AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH 00Z...HOWEVER KJMS WILL
CONTINUE WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NDZ011-012-017>023-025-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JJS
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...WAA






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