Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 180238

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
938 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Issued at 932 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

The best chance for showers will remain across the far southwest
tonight. Latest radar trends show the precipitation trailing off
across the south central. CAM models show the precip will end
south central with a chance for rain showers yet through the
night west. There will be  at least a slight chance of a snow
shoer in the colder air northwest late tonight.

UPDATE Issued at 720 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

This update for showers moving through southwest North Dakota
this evening. Upped the pops to likely for the evening.

UPDATE Issued at 616 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

The band of rain showers lying east-west across south central
North Dakota shows signs of quickly dissipating from the latest
radar images. Will follow the trend into the evening with
decreasing pops. An isolated thunderstorm across southeast Montana
should have a hard time maintaining in light of the trends and
will not add any thunder to southwest forecast at this time.


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)

Issued at 223 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Forecast highlights in the short term period will be ongoing
showers south today into this evening.

Currently...mid level frontogensis coupled with upper level
divergence continues to result in a band of mainly light rainfall
over far southern ND this afternoon. The northern edge of the
shower activity should remain mainly south of Interstate 94, with
drier conditions to the north. Aforementioned forcing mechanisms
will move east this evening quickly ending chances for showers
from west to east.

Upper level trough aloft will maintain a chance of showers tonight
and Tuesday, though nothing impactful. CAA across the north on
Tuesday will result in daytime highs in the 40s near the Canadian
border, low 60s farther south.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)

Issued at 223 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

The Northern Plains will be under the influence of a long wave
trough through Thursday, resulting in seasonable temperatures for
our region. Surface high pressure should also maintain a mainly
dry forecast Tuesday night - Thursday. Upper level ridging will
then build into the region for the remainder of the extended
period resulting in a continued dry pattern with moderating
temperatures into the weekend. Overall no impactful weather


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)
Issued at 616 PM CDT Mon Oct 17 2016

Surface low pressure across eastern South Dakota will move east
tonight and the showers across south central North Dakota will
end. Then a cold front across northern North Dakota will move
south and will be the focus for MVFR ceilings from KISN-KMOT
after 06z. IFR ceilings expected at KISN between 13-17z. Otherwise
vfr KDIK-KBIS-KJMS with scattered showers ending after 04z.




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