Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 212049
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
349 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SHOW SPOTTY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE UPSTREAM
SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
ROBUST CAP IN PLACE AS ELEVATED MIXED LAYER OVERSPREADS THE REGION
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HOWEVER DECIDED TO ADD A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WHERE THE SHOWALTER INDEX TRENDS NEGATIVE
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY SOUTHEAST. THIS LAYER ABOVE THE CAP COULD
RESULT IN ELEVATED CONVECTION LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.

TRIED TO FIT THE POPS WITH THE BEST FORCING FOR LIFT. ENDED UP
FOCUSING ON THE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY WILL STILL BE IN THE 60S WHICH IS 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.


.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 349 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT A TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL BE
DRAPED ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA. ANY PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS FRONT SHOULD BE OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS TIME.

THE NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION DOES NOT ARRIVE UNTIL SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE MOUNTAIN
WEST. OF COURSE BEING NEARLY A WEEK WAY...GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY
ON PRECIP CHANCES AND PLACEMENT.

TEMPERATURE WISE...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE REGION FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS FRONT SHOULD BRING LITTLE MORE THAN A WIND SHIFT
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES TO THE REGION.


&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1233 PM CDT TUE OCT 21 2014

TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IN EASTERN
MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION BY NOON WEDNESDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST WITH THE
FRONT AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE JAMES RIVER VALLEY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. VFR AT ALL TAF SITES.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...WAA








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