Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 282332
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
632 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES A WEAK SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL SASKATCHEWAN/NORTHEAST MONTANA RIDING ALONG A 70KT
JETSTREAK THAT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MONTANA/FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT. CURRENTLY THERE IS SOME CONVECTION
ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER NORTH OF GLASGOW. ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED OVER SOUTHEAST MONTANA BUT WITH A
SOUTHEAST MOVEMENT SHOULD STAY TO THE WEST OF SOUTHWEST NORTH
DAKOTA. STILL CAN NOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM TONIGHT
ACROSS THE WEST AND WILL LEAVE THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.
OTHERWISE...MOSTLY CLEAR ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...BUT A BAND OF
SMOKE FROM CANADIAN FIRES IS CURRENTLY DRAPED ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA AND MOVING SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

RELATIVELY BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN IN PLACE WITH WARM WEATHER
THROUGH MONDAY...LIGHT WINDS AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. HAZY SKIES
TODAY ARE DUE TO SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES STREAMING OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AS LONGWAVE RIDGE WAS
POSITIONED OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. SMOKE MAY CONTINUE TO
AFFECT OUR REGION WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINING THROUGH
MONDAY.

MODELS ALSO CONTINUE TO DEPICT A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDING DOWN
BACKSIDE OF UPPER RIDGE TONIGHT BRUSHING WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA.
MOST OF THE MODELS ARE DRY...WITH GFS BEING A LITTLE MORE
AGGRESSIVE GENERATING SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION FROM SOME ELEVATED
CONVECTION. THE INHERITED FORECAST CARRIED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
ACROSS THE WEST AND THIS STILL LOOKS REASONABLE.

ON MONDAY HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH ANOTHER WARM DAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER 80S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

COOLER WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS IS FORECAST TO BEGIN
TO BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY. THIS WOULD PUT THE NORTHERN PLAINS IN
NORTHWEST FLOW...ALLOWING MANY FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO
SWING THROUGH. ONCE SUCH WAVE IS BEING PICKED UP BY THE MODELS TO
MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY AND ANOTHER WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY.
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE EACH DAY AS SOUTH WINDS USHER IN
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND LEE SURFACE LOWS DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES. BASICALLY WE ARE SEEING A RETURN TO THE
PATTERN WE HAD EARLY LAST WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 620 PM CDT SUN JUN 28 2015

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE 00Z TAF
PERIOD. WILL MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE THUNDER AT KISN AND KDIK
OVERNIGHT BUT CURRENTLY TOO ISOLATED TO MENTION AT EITHER TAF
SITE. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE MOST AREAS
TONIGHT AND PICK UP AGAIN OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST 10-15 MPH
BY AROUND 17 UTC MONDAY.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...JNS
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...TWH


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