Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 282020
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
320 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Clear skies for Northern Lights viewing tonight highlights the
short term forecast.

An upper level ridge across the Northern Plains will remain in
place tonight into Thursday. As a result, clear skies are
forecast for the period for potential viewing of the Northern
Lights tonight given the increased solar wind speed from a coronal
hole on the sun.

Under the upper level ridge, slightly above normal temperatures
are expected on Thursday. Given good agreement, utilized a blend
of the 12 UTC global and the rapidly updating high resolution
iterations through 17 UTC for the short term.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

Increasing precipitation chances Sunday into early next week
highlight the extended forecast.

The 12 UTC global suite is in agreement on a digging upper level
trough across the western CONUS Sunday into Monday with a
upper level low potentially propagating out onto the Northern
Plains Tuesday into Wednesday. The global models have been
consistent with this pattern setting up, favoring increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms for the period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 251 PM CDT Wed Sep 28 2016

MVFR/IFR stratus and fog may once again form tonight into Thursday
morning across the Turtle Mountains, James River Valley and
Devils Lake Basin. Have added a TEMPO group to KJMS. Otherwise,
VFR conditions are forecast across western and central North
Dakota for the 18 UTC TAF cycle.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

PJA



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