Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 242032
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
332 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Thursday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

Gusty southerly winds ahead of the surface trough and associated
cold front will continue through the afternoon, although they may
diminish far west as the center of the trough moves over. The
short term CAM models have been more excited about thunderstorms
even though the cape is barely there. Shear is plentiful and with
the current lightning in eastern Montana, will include a few
hours of thunderstorms west and then trail off thunder to just
the southwest this evening.

Without good instability cant seem to get too excited about rain
potential over the next 24 hours. Current consensus is between a
tenth of an inch and up to a quarter of an inch west and north.

By Thursday the trough will be east and the chances for
precipitation remain just along the northern boarder. Used the
highest guidance for wind speeds Thursday which gave a reasonably
breezy but not windy day with west to northwest winds. Highs
Thursday will range from the lower 60s southwest to lower 70s
James River Valley. Current greenup will again keep fire danger
below the high level even with the gusty winds.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

The weekend is shaping up to be on the cool side with scattered
showers. The best chance for showers still looks like Saturday.
Global Models see a sharply curved shortwave trough rotating
around the upper low which may produce enhanced vertical motion
fields Saturday. Following this, the upper low circulates around
Ontario funneling several more shortwave troughs through the
Northern Plains in what could be a modestly active northwest flow
regime. This pattern often produces an active thunderstorm
pattern in early June. While the Forecast Blend guidance is
generally dry see some potential next week. However due to
uncertainty left the extended after Monday dry but something to
watch.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Wed May 24 2017

VFR ceilings and visibilities are prevailing across western and
central North Dakota early this afternoon. A few lower ceilings
were in place over KJMS due to diurnally driven bands of cloud
streets which may continue through the late afternoon hours. Gusty
southeast winds are currently spreading across the region ahead
of a strong cold front located over eastern Montana. Expect these
gusty winds to slowly start diminishing near and after sunset. As
the cold front pushes through the state, expect winds to
eventually shift to the southwest and west by Thursday morning.
Winds will begin to increase again by the late morning hours,
mainly over the western half of North Dakota. A line of showers
will accompany the cold front this evening over the west, and
spread east through the overnight hours. Due to the isolated to
scattered nature of the modeled convection, elected to keep
vicinity showers in the TAF for now.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 8 PM CDT /7 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ001-
002-009-010-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...ZH


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