Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 020518
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1218 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

NO CHANGES MADE...FORECAST IS ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 939 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THE 22-01 UTC HRRR ITERATIONS CONTINUE TO EXPAND THE COVERAGE OF
FOG TO MOST LOCATIONS ALONG AND EAST OF US HIGHWAY 85 LATE TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS 60S F DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO ADVECT
NORTH-NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. CERTAINLY CANNOT RULE OUT A
POTENTIAL DENSE FOG ADVISORY LATER TONIGHT GIVEN THE SIGNAL IN THE
HRRR.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 554 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

DID ADD A MENTION OF FOG TO MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT
AS 60S F DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO ADVECT NORTH EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
THE 21 UTC HRRR AND 18 UTC NAM NEST SUPPORT THIS POTENTIAL VIA
THEIR REDUCED VISIBILITY FORECASTS ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

THIS AFTERNOON...A WEAK SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA WAS A REFLECTION
OF A WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT. THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST
TO MEANDER NORTHEAST WHILE DIMINISHING WITH TIME. SOUTHERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW OVER THE WARM FRONT WILL TRANSFER MOISTURE NORTH INTO
THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE SEVERAL HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS AS
WELL AS THE GFS/NAM FORECAST SOME CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. WILL NEED
SOME TIME TO DEVELOP THIS SCENARIO SO DELAYED THE ONSET OF
CONVECTION UNTIL MIDNIGHT. OTHERWISE THIS FORCING WILL END/SHIFT
TO THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY. SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WEDNESDAY.
WITH A BROAD THERMAL RIDGE OVER EASTERN MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA
HIGHS WILL WARM WELL INTO THE 90S. HUMIDITY WILL BE LOW WITH
AFTERNOON VALUES REACHING 15 PERCENT WEST. THE MAJOR MISSING
COMPONENT WAS WINDS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WINDS WILL REMAIN
BELOW 15 MPH FOR THE MOST PART WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE SEP 1 2015

CONTINUED VERY WARM WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY WILL BECOME AN OPEN WAVE AND DEEPEN OVER THE WEST COAST
THROUGH SATURDAY. DURING THIS TIME NORTH DAKOTA WILL REMAIN ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE UPSTREAM RIDGE AXIS...KEEPING VERY WARM AND
DRY AIR OVER THE STATE. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN REACH INTO
THE 90S MANY LOCATIONS...WITH 80S NORTHWEST IN THE WAKE OF A SLOW
MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY. BY THURSDAY NIGHT EMBEDDED S/WV IMPULSES
WILL APPROACH THE REGION...AND WHEN COUPLED WITH THE BOUNDARY WILL
RESULT IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEST TO EAST DURING
THE NIGHT.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY THE WEST COAST UPPER TROUGH BEGINS TO MOVE FARTHER
INLAND AND WILL DIRECT A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY IMPULSES ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND CAA
IN THE WAKE OF THE SFC FRONT WILL RESULT IN MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES...WITH HIGHS DROPPING INTO THE MID 60S NORTHWEST TO
LOW 80S OVER THE SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY SATURDAY. SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY THE BASE OF THE TROUGH LIFTS NORTHEASTWARD INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS...REACHING SOUTHERN CANADA BY SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS TIME PERIOD (FRIDAY-SUNDAY) WILL SEE VERY GOOD CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

A MORE ZONAL FLOW SETS UP EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHOULD RESULT IN
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS AND SOME TEMPERATURE RECOVERY AS WE PROGRESS
INTO THE MIDDLE PORTIONS OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1218 AM CDT WED SEP 2 2015

AREAS OF FOG ARE IN THE FORECAST ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS MORNING. KJMS AND KBIS ARE MOST LIKELY
TO BE IMPACTED...WITH IFR/LIFR VISIBILITY POSSIBLE. KMOT AND KDIK
MAY BE ON THE FRINGE OF THE POTENTIAL FOG BANK. ONCE THE FOG BURNS
OFF THROUGH THE MORNING...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AC
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...AC


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