Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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814
FXUS63 KBIS 182337
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
637 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

.UPDATE...

ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

VERY MINOR CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST FOR THE EARLY EVENING
PRODUCT ISSUANCE.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT WILL
RESULT IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...AND COLD
TEMPERATURES GIVEN THE ABOVE AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES IN THE
TEENS AND 20S. FREEZE HEADLINES GOOD TO GO...WITH PERHAPS A FEW
RECORD LOWS TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

WRAPPED UP STORM EXITING THE REGION. FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE
FREEZING TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...AND POSSIBILITY OF FOG WHERE
CLEARING SKIES AND WHERE HEAVY RAINS/RECENT SNOW MAY BE FAVORABLE
FOR ITS FORMATION.

DEWPOINTS MONDAY AFTERNOON ARE IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S WEST
AND THE 20S AND LOWER 30S CENTRAL. SKIES WILL CLEAR THIS EVENING
AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH. TEMPS SHOULD THEN FALL INTO THE MID TO
UPPER 20S MOST AREAS...WITH SOME LOWER 20S NORTH CENTRAL WHERE
SOME RESIDUAL SNOW COVER REMAINS. BISMARCK AND JAMESTOWN MAY SEE
A RECORD LOW IN THE MIDDLE 20S TONIGHT. ADDED PATCHY FOG TO THE
RIVER VALLEYS.

ON TUESDAY...UPPER LOW WILL MOVE SOUTH OF THE STATE. MOST OF THE
REGION WILL BE SUNNY WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDINESS FAR SOUTHWEST.
HIGHS WILL BE COOL BOT NOT AS COOL AS TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS IN THE
50S TO CLOSE TO 60 WEST.

RECORD LOWS FOR TUESDAY MAY 19TH.

CITY........CURRENT RECORD....FORECAST LOW.
BISMARCK......27 IN 2002..........26
JAMESTOWN.....26 IN 2002..........26
MINOT.........20 IN 1927..........23
DICKINSON.....21 IN 1907..........25
WILLISTON.....20 IN 1907..........27

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 232 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

THE REST OF WEEK LOOKS QUIET AND COOL.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
THIS WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLEAR...NIGHTS COOL AND STORMS SOUTH
OF THE AREA. TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING TEMPERATURES
SHOULD FALL ONCE AGAIN TO RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. WIDESPREAD FROST
IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY MODERATE THIS
WEEK...REACHING THE 60S WEDNESDAY AND REMAINING THERE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO ENTER THE PLAINS LATE THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS TIME THE MODELS KEEP THE MAJORITY OF
PRECIPITATION SOUTH...WITH JUST FAR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA GETTING
A GLANCING BLOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 637 PM CDT MON MAY 18 2015

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE IN THE RIVER VALLEYS ALONG THE MISSOURI AND JAMES
RIVERS. WILL MENTION A VICINITY FOG FOR BOTH KJMS AND KBIS. MVFR
CIGS NOW AT KJMS WILL SCATTER THEN CLEAR 01-03Z. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING FROM 10 PM CDT /9 PM MDT/ THIS EVENING TO 10 AM
CDT /9 AM MDT/ TUESDAY FOR NDZ001>005-009>013-017>023-025-
031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...NH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...NH



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