Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 271144
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
644 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 644 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Surface observations from across the region still show fog and
low visibilities across the eastern part of the state. Locally,
Jamestown has been fluctuating between 1/2sm and 1/4sm, but they
have been the only spot so far to fall that low across the BIS
forecast area. Weather cameras across the region tell a similar
story to the surface observations.  The current forecast is
carrying areas of fog in the east, and patchy in the central,
which remains a reasonable expectation.

Early morning regional radar mosaic shows a few light returns
moving across the northern part of the state. Do not expect those
in the northwest and north central to be reaching the ground at
this point with forecast soundings showing dry air in the low and
mid levels of the atmospheric column.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Melting snowpack, light winds and subsidence will lead to fog
across most of northern North Dakota this morning. Dense fog is
possible around Rugby, Rolette, Bottineau and surrounding areas.
Any fog that does develop should dissipate by noon.

Another weak upper level wave moves into western North Dakota this
afternoon. Some isolated showers may develop across western North
Dakota this afternoon, but confidence isn`t high enough at this
time to put it into the forecast.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 404 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

Above normal temperatures will continue through the week with
readings mainly in the 50s.

There are a few chances for precipitation this week, but only with
very light amounts. The next chance for precip is Tuesday night
into Wednesday, however the latest model runs are rather low and
sparse with respect to QPF. There is perhaps a better chance for
precip later this week...Friday into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning)
Issued at 644 AM CDT Mon Mar 27 2017

IFR ceilings and visibilities continue at KJMS early this
morning. Those should slowly improve this morning with a gradual
trend back to VFR. Patchy fog is not out of the question still
this morning at KMOT, but did not include at the moment due to low
confidence in it returning to the terminal location. The
remainder of the taf locations will be vfr. There is a chance of
stratus tonight, especially towards KMOT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...CK



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