Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 181804
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
104 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

EARLY AFTERNOON THURSDAY..LOW PRESSURE EXTENDED THROUGH
SASKATCHEWAN. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW INTO NORTH
CENTRAL MONTANA. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT AND WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. A LIMITING FACTOR FOR
CONVECTION WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT CAP IN PLACE ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. BENEATH THIS CAP LOW LEVEL MOISTER WILL ALSO STREAM
NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS GOOD
WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 939 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

FOG HAS DISSIPATED NORTH CENTRAL AND IN PORTIONS OF THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDS ACROSS FAR EASTERN
MONTANA WILL MOVE EAST TODAY. BUMPED THE WINDS UP ABOUT 5 MPH TO
15 TO 20 MPH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EAST THIS AFTERNOON AS THE
NAM H850 WINDS OF 35 KTS SEEMS TO SUPPORT THIS. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA SEEM HANDLED WELL BY NEW
NAM WHICH KEEP THEM ALONG THE BORDER. CURRENT FORECAST HAS SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDERSTORMS WEST. WILL WATCH FOR ANY CONVECTION CENTRAL
AND EAST FOR NOW.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 631 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

HAVE EXPANDED PATCHY FOG TO THE NORTH AND WEST WITH OBBS STARTING
TO COME IN ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER SHOWING ADDITIONAL FOG
DEVELOPMENT. OTHERWISE...GOING FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 518 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

HAVE UPDATED FOR PATCHY DENSE FOG FORMING IN THE JAMES RIVER
VALLEY AND PATCHES OF STRATUS FORMING IN THE BOWBELLS TO MOHALL
AREAS. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

AN ISOLATED RAIN SHOWER WAS SHOWING UP SOUTHWEST OF WILLISTON
EARLY THIS THURSDAY MORNING...AND ANOTHER WEST OF BOWMAN. MOVEMENT
WAS EAST INTO MORE STABLE AND DRIER AIR. WILL EXPECT DISSIPATION
OF THOSE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

OTHERWISE...WARM AIR ADVECTION TODAY AS A TROUGH AT THE SURFACE
PUSHES TO THE MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA BORDER BY AFTERNOON. THE
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTS IN 15 TO 25 MPH OF WIND
TODAY...AND INCREASINGLY MOIST AIR ACTS TO DESTABILIZE THE
ATMOSPHERE THIS AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION...MODELS SHOW A WEAK MID
LEVEL WAVE RIDING THROUGH THE MEAN H5 RIDGE. TOGETHER THESE MEAN
THE CHANCE THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP WEST IN THE
AFTERNOON.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT A MORE POTENT
H5 WAVE FLATTENS THE RIDGE AND INCREASES THE COVERAGE OF STORMS
FROM ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH HIGHER POPS.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM TODAY WITH MOST PLACES ENDING UP WITHIN
A FEW DEGREES OF 80...THE EXCEPTION WILL BE THE FAR EAST WHERE 75
WILL ABOUT DO IT AHEAD OF THE WARM ADVECTION.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

UNSETTLED WESTERLY FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS A COUPLE
OF WEAK SHORT WAVES PUSH THROUGH...BRINGING CONTINUED LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES. UPPER RIDGE OVER THE PACIFIC SLIDES ONSHORE
SATURDAY SHIFTING FLOW NORTHWESTERLY OVER OUR AREA...THOUGH THE NEXT
SHORT WAVE SLIDES DOWN THE RIDGE BRINGING CONTINUED LOW
PRECIPITATION CHANCES MAINLY TO NORTHERN AND EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA
WHILE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP ACROSS THE STATE. RIDGE THEN
AMPLIFIES AND SLOWLY MOVES TOWARDS THE EAST TO START THE WEEK
BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND MILD TEMPERATURES. TOWARDS
MID-WEEK...SOME MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A MORE UNSETTLED
PATTERN DEVELOPING AS A LOW LIFTS TOWARDS THE REGION. WILL KEEP
FORECAST MAINLY DRY FOR NOW...BUT WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AND MAY
HAVE TO ADD SOME PRECIP ON SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS IF MODELS ARE
PERSISTENT WITH THIS SOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1252 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

COLD FRONT IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO
NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FOCUS
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON WEST AND ACROSS WEST AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT.
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL STREAM NORTH INTO CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
PRIOR TO THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. THIS COULD CREATE SOME MVFR
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL ND. FOR THE TIME BEING ADDED SCT CLOUDS AT
25 HUNDRED AGL TO KJMS. OTHERWISE VFR.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...WAA
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...JJS
AVIATION...WAA






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