Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 230838
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
338 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

A moderate to heavy precipitation event is in store for much of
central and eastern North Dakota beginning this afternoon and
continuing through the weekend. The broad scale weather features
reveal a significant upper trough over the western US that will
guide and funnel moist air into the northern plains through
Sunday. Scattered showers will be found southwest into central
North Dakota this morning. However by this afternoon and
especially this evening a shortwave will ride up the trough and
provide widespread lift in a strongly baroclinic environment.
Rainfall amounts near 2 inches are forecast for the southeast to
an inch central with lesser amounts northwest.

The heavy rain is supported by the GEFS Mean QPF Ensemble showing
QPF amounts exceeding the 30 year climate period for south central
and southeast North Dakota. Also, GEFS QPF Plumes for the period
7 PM Saturday through 7 PM Sunday have a mean QPF between 1 and 2
inches for the south central and southeast with a half an inch or
less northwest. So high confidence of widespread showers
developing this evening and overnight.

A small area of thunderstorm chances will exist across Dickey and
Lamoure counties today, otherwise only showers are expected. Low
probability of hydrology issues from the rain at this time as its
forecast over a 18 to 24 hour period in an area that should be
able to absorb the rainfall.

Temperatures will be quite cool with highs today from the upper
40s southwest to the upper 50s southeast and lows tonight from 40
to 55.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

Widespread showers will linger on Sunday across much of southwest,
central and eastern North Dakota, diminishing Sunday night.
Otherwise, the extended period will see cool temperatures through
mid week with scattered frost chances Monday and Tuesday morning.
Low temperatures fall into the mid 30s west and south central
during that period. Highs Monday and Tuesday should be in the mid
50s to around 60. A slow moderation of temperatures is expected
by the end of the week with highs in the low to mid 60s Wednesday
through Friday with mainly dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Saturday night)
Issued at 1235 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2017

MVFR and IFR ceilings are expected to remain widespread across
western and central ND this morning. Showers were developing in
southwestern ND, and are expected to continue developing southwest
and expanding into south central ND. A few thunderstorms are also
possible south of KJMS.

Conditions to improve a bit this afternoon with varied VFR and MVFR
ceilings. However a more widespread area of rain is expected to
develop in southwest ND Saturday afternoon as a stronger disturbance
approaches. This widespread area of rain will expand into northern
North Dakota Saturday night and continue into Sunday, with MVFR and
IFR conditions at all TAF sites.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JV



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