Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 231728
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1228 PM CDT SAT JUL 23 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Surface low pressure is located over north central SD with showers
and thunderstorms extending from northeast ND into the far
southern James River valley. Best moisture surface convergence is
shifting south and east of our southeast CWA. So although it
remains quite unstable over the southern JRV, the threat of severe
weather is quickly coming ton an end. Possibly an hour or two over
far southeast Dickey county. Otherwise a few showers lingering
over the far northeast CWA but drier air will quickly expand from
western into central ND through the afternoon putting an end to
any thunderstorm activity. With only a sliver of the far southeast
remaining in a threat of heavy rain will allow the flood advisory
to expire as intended at 1 pm.

UPDATE Issued at 1002 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Convection continues to track east across Kidder and into Stutsman
county. Did receive a quarter sized hail report in southeast
Kidder county on the southern cell of the line of storms.
Otherwise most reports have been heavy rain and small hail. Still
a potential for strong to severe storms yet through early
afternoon across mainly the James River Valley as shortwave
pushes across western into central ND this morning.

Updated pops and sky cover based on latest radar and satellite
trends.

Did trim back the flash flood watch quite a bit leaving only the
far southeast counties.

UPDATE Issued at 607 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Convection is slowly intensifying across central ND as of 11 UTC.
HRRR and HRRR-experimental simulations have generally suggested an
uptick in intensity to the thunderstorm activity through 15 UTC,
and their updraft helicity signatures have at times signaled some
risk of organized, severe storms. However, there`s been little in
the way of run-to-run continuity in those simulations, which in
turn lowers our confidence in the specifics of storm evolution
through the morning. Suffice to say that the MUCAPE-shear setting
is favorable for a few severe storms, along with heavy rainfall.

All we did with this update was refresh hourly fields through the
late afternoon using a consensus of recent short-range guidance.
We will leave the flash flood watch in tact with this cycle, but
parts of it may be cancelled with the next update.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Main highlight today is the ongoing showers and thunderstorms across
portions of western and central North Dakota. Tied to this is a
flood watch for central ND which remains in effect through early
afternoon.

The latest water vapor imagery shows the upper level low circulating
over southeast Alberta with an associated cold front now into
eastern Montana. Much drier air behind the front with dewpoints in
the 40s. This front will be into western ND around 12z Saturday,
then shifting into central ND by 18z. Still expect periodic
showers and thunderstorms ahead of the cold front. Some storms
will contain very heavy downpours. The drier air in Montana will
spill into western ND this afternoon.

Severe thunderstorms possible across the James River Valley today
as noted by SPC day one outlook. With the cold front not pushing
through until 21z-00z, the greatest cape axis and shear will
reside here for possible severe thunderstorms.

Farther west, expect drier but windy conditions with increasing
sunshine. Tranquil weather tonight with a clear sky expected. Lows
will mainly be in the 50s.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 250 AM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

Shortwave ridging temporarily dominates Sunday and most of Monday
resulting in dry and warmer weather. Monday afternoon, the threat
for showers and thunderstorms returns in southwest ND then expands
into central ND Monday night. Tuesday through Friday expect near
daily chances for showers and thunderstorms as a unsettled west to
northwest flow takes control. The GFS and ECMWF in good agreement
with precipitation chances exiting from west to east Friday,
followed by a dry Saturday. Highs for the week will begin warm
with 80s to lower 90s, followed by a gradual cooling trend
Wednesday through Friday. During this time highs will range from
the 70s north to around 80 south.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Sat Jul 23 2016

VFR conditions expected through the 18z forecast period. West to
northwest flow over Western ND will progress across central ND
this afternoon. Winds will be breezy at KISN and KDIK through the
afternoon and will pick up this afternoon at KMOT KBIS and KJMS.
Lingering moisture behind the exiting low pressure system will
bring periods vfr cigs late tonight into Sunday morning.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for NDZ023-025-
036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...KS
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...TWH


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