Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 201145
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
645 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

FORECAST IS ON TRACK...SO ADJUSTMENTS WERE LIMITED TO NUDGES
TOWARD SURFACE OBSERVATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

FORECAST ISSUES IN THE SHORT TERM ARE TEMPERATURES...A VERY SMALL
CHANCE AT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM...AND HAZE DUE TO SMOKE FROM
FIRES OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE COUNTRY.

REALITY HAS NOT QUITE REACHED THE FORECAST THE PAST FEW DAYS WITH
RESPECT TO HIGH TEMPERATURES. THIS AS THE SUNSHINE HAS BEEN
FILTERED/ DIMMED THROUGH A HAZY / SMOKEY SKY. HAVE UNDERCUT
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE FOR TODAY`S HIGHS BASED ON RECENT HISTORY.
ALSO...THE THERMAL RIDGE AXIS FORECAST TO BE OVER THE AREA TODAY
IS A BIT AHEAD OF FORECAST AND WILL BE INTO THE EASTERN PART OF
THE STATE...THE GRAND FORKS NWS FORECAST AREA...AT MAX HEATING.
WITH THAT 85 NORTH TO THE LOWER 90S ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
94 LOOKS REASONABLE FOR TODAY.

HAVE ADDED SMOKE AND HAZE TO THE GRIDDED DATABASE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

ON THAT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCE...IT IS POSSIBLE IN THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A VERY WEAK MID LEVEL WAVE
INTERCEPTS THE THERMAL RIDGE / SURFACE TROUGH THERE...HOWEVER...
THE CHANCE IS SO LOW THAT BLANKETING AN AREA WITH A LOW POP IS
OVERKILL AND LIKELY A DISSERVICE TO CUSTOMERS. THE BETTER CHANCES
ARE JUST TO THE SOUTHEAST OF DICKEY COUNTY.

FOR SUNDAY NIGHT...MILD...WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE 60S.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE IS SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL ON MONDAY AS
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS AGAIN HIGHLIGHTED A SLIGHT RISK
PRIMARILY FOR DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL. A VIGOROUS MID LEVEL
VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND ASSOCIATE JET STREAK IS FORECAST BY
NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM GLOBAL AND MANY ENSEMBLE MEMBERS TO EJECT INTO
THE NORTHERN PLAINS MONDAY. ASSOCIATED LEE CYCLOGENESIS AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS WILL SUPPORT MOISTURE
FLUX AHEAD OF MID LEVEL DYNAMIC SUPPORT.

EXTREME INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP BY MIDDAY...THOUGH THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHERE CONVECTIVE INITIATION WILL OCCUR GIVEN
THAT THE BEST DYNAMIC SUPPORT IS FORECAST TO BE IN SOUTHERN
CANADA WHILE THE BEST INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO BE ALONG THE
NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER EAST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER AND
SURFACE LOW.

THEREAFTER...THE BEST CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE THANKS TO
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WHICH IS FORECAST TO
SLIDE THROUGH SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN LATE THURSDAY.

FINALLY...THE PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED POSSIBLE HEAT ADVISORY ON
MONDAY HAS BEEN REMOVED FROM MENTION IN THIS FORECAST. THERE IS
CONCERN THAT CONVECTION WILL OCCUR/IMPACT RISING TEMPERATURES
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 636 AM CDT SUN JUL 20 2014

IT WILL BE HAZY WITH SOME SMOKE FROM WILDFIRES OVER THE NORTHWEST
PART OF THE COUNTRY MAKING IT INTO NORTH DAKOTA. SHORT DURATION
DROPS IN VISIBILITY DUE MOSTLY TO SHALLOW FOG WILL CEASE BY 15Z.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF VALID
PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...SCHECK
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...SCHECK






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