Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 130031

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
631 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2018


Issued at 630 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

Band of light to sometimes moderate snow persists across my south
central and southeast as a mid level wave swings across the region.
Have been picking up some light accumulations with the snow, a
few tenths. Forcing will decrease as we head into the evening so
have trended POPs downward after 01Z. Otherwise modified sky cover
and hourly weather elements based on latest sat imagery and


.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 216 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

Current surface analysis places high over the upper midwest into
portions of the northern plains, while low remains over the desert
southwest. Upper level analysis places split flow over our region
while a low spins near the Great Basin. Weak wave moving through
southern stream has resulted in some snow developing over far
southern portions of the state which forecast models have not
handled well. Remaining areas of the state continue to be quiet.

For the remainder of the afternoon into the evening...snow over
the far south will linger this afternoon but should gradually
diminish by evening. Winds will start to shift southwesterly
overnight as high scoots off to the east.

On Tuesday...temperatures will warm as southwesterly winds
continue over the area ahead of the next system that pushes into
the area on Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 216 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

On Wednesday...surface low slides easterly across the southern
provinces swinging a cold front into the area. Ahead of the front,
well above average temperatures are expected, with some 40s
expected over southern areas. Precipitation develops as the front
sweeps in. Chances for snow will increase from north to south in
the afternoon and evening in the wake of the front, though a
little rain may be possible over the west in warmer locations.
Periods of snow are expected to continue overnight and possibly
into Thursday morning, with generally an inch or two possible
over most areas, maybe a little more over some northern locations.

Warming trend the re-develops for the end of the work week into
the start of the weekend. The next disturbance pushes into the
area this weekend, but models differ a little on the placement and
timing of the system. With that said, will keep elevated chances
for precipitation in the forecast and try and time it out better
as models come into agreement.


.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Tuesday evening)

Issued at 630 PM CST Mon Feb 12 2018

Areas of MVFR cigs and vis with some light snow possible through
early this evening along to south of Interstate 94 mainly
impacting KBIS-KJMS. Otherwise VFR conditions will prevail.





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