000
FXUS63 KBIS 160552
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1252 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THAT WERE NEAR THE CANADIAN
BORDER HAVE DIMINISHED AS EXPECTED. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS MADE TO
FORECAST...MAINLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO HOURLY TEMP FORECASTS.
REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AS WELL WITH WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWING UPPER LOW THAT HAS BEEN SITTING OVER SASKATCHEWAN
BEGINNING TO OPEN AND DRIFT SOUTHWARD. BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS
AGAIN EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS GENERALLY SHOW 25-30 KNOTS IN THE MIXED LAYER SO DO NOT
THINK AN ADVISORY WILL BE NECESSARY UNLESS THEY ARE UNDER-DOING
WINDS SIMILAR TO SATURDAY.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 943 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH WHERE MUCAPE REMAINS AT
AROUND 500 J/KG ALONG WITH MID LEVEL SUPPORT FROM THE CLOSED LOW
IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. WILL EXTEND POPS THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

OTHER UPDATES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WERE MINIMAL.

UPDATE
ISSUED AT 650 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

ISOLATED RADAR RETURNS ACROSS MY NORTH COMBINED WITH MUCAPE OF
500-1000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH DO NOT SEE ANY LIGHTNING STRIKES...SEE NO
REASON TO REMOVE THUNDER MENTION EARLY THIS EVENING FOR THIS AREA.
DID TRIM BACK POPS AFTER 03Z WITH THE ACTIVITY ACROSS MY NORTH
DIURNAL IN NATURE.

WILL ALLOW THE WIND ADVISORY TO EXPIRE WITH THIS UPDATE WITH MOST
REPORTED STATIONS GUSTING TO BELOW 30 MPH THE LAST HOUR OR SO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)

ISSUED AT 241 PM CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

MAIN CONCERNS THIS PERIOD INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING...AND THE CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. GOOD MIXING
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH TODAY IN BROAD SUBSIDENCE
GENERATED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE UPPER LOW OVER CENTRAL
SASK/ALBTA. WITHIN THIS SUBSIDENCE REGION CAN IDENTIFY A 90 KT JET
ALOFT EXITING THE REGION. WILL CONTINUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
NORTH AND PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL SECTIONS THROUGH 7 PM THIS
EVENING. WIND GUSTS TO 45 MPH UNTIL THEN.

VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS ABUNDANT TOWERING CU ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN MANITOBA. THIS APPEARS O EB ASSOCIATED WITH THE
CANADIAN UPPER LOW...COOL AIR ALOFT WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES.
LIMITED MOISTURE AND WEAK FORCING WILL REQUIRE THE REMAINDER OF
THE DAYTIME HEATING TO DEVELOP INTO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BUT
EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FAR
NORTH UNTIL SUNSET. ON SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND MERGES
WITH THE FLOW/ENERGY FROM THE HUDSON BAY LOW. AS THIS REMNANTS OF
THE UPPER LOW SWING ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A
CHANCE OF SHOWER NORTH HALF OF THE STATE SUNDAY. INSTABILITY IS A
BIT MARGINAL BUT ENOUGH FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AGAIN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 PM  CDT SAT JUN 15 2013

NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED WITH A
MORE ACTIVE PATTERN FOR THUNDERSTORMS POTENTIALLY ESTABLISHING
ITSELF WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

THE 12 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD AND WILL USE A BLEND FOR MOST FIELDS. AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PROPAGATE INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS
MONDAY AND REMAIN THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE A POTENTIAL
SHIFT OF THE AXIS TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO NEXT
WEEKEND...WHICH WOULD YIELD SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. THIS UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SUPPORTS NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
INCREASING WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE FORECAST
TRANSITION TO FAVORABLE SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WITH SEVERAL IMPULSES
POTENTIALLY EJECTING OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST UPPER LEVEL LOW.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY EVENING)

ISSUED AT 1251 AM CDT SUN JUN 16 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ALL TERMINALS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS
MORNING WITH ANOTHER BREEZY DAY EXPECTED...GENERALLY OUT OF THE
WEST 20G30 KTS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL SEE
INCREASING CLOUDS 15-18Z SUNDAY AS AFTERNOON CU REGENERATE. BEST
CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE NORTH SO
INCLUDED A VCSH FOR KMOT AND KISN. MAY GET NEAR MVFR CIGS AT NORTH
TERMINALS AS WELL SUNDAY 17-23Z.
&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JNS
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...NH