Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 272118
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
318 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE SOUTH TONIGHT
AND SUNDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THIS COLD
AIR APPEARS TO SUPPORT AN AREA OF LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL INTO THE EAT CENTRAL THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR LOOPS SHOW ITS
FAST MOVING AND WILL EXIT THE EAST BY 6 PM. WILL INCLUDE A PERIOD
OF SNOW FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH HIGH POPS BUT LOW SNOW AMOUNTS.

TONIGHT...AN AREA OF SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AND
FRONTOGENESIS ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE COLD AIR WILL PROGRESSIVELY
MOVE FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT THEN REMAIN ACROSS
THE SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY. UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL ASSIST IN SNOW
GENERATION OF UP TO 2 INCHES SOUTHWEST BY SUNDAY EVENING.

WIND CHILL VALUES OF 25 BELOW ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL SUNDAY
MORNING WILL NOT LAST BUT A FEW HOURS...SO WILL WAIT FOR THE BETTER
WIND CHILL VALUES EXPECTED SUNDAY NIGHT FOR HEADLINES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

A MINOR ISSUE AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM IS THE LIGHT SNOW
WINDING DOWN IN THE SOUTHWEST. SNOW TOTALS FROM SUNDAY SHORT TERM
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT LONG TERM SHOULD BE AROUND 2 INCHES MAXIMUM IN
BOWMAN COUNTY AREA. WITH THE COLD AIR POURING IN I CONTINUED THE
SNOW FLURRIES OVER THE STATE INTO SUNDAY NIGHT THEN GRADUALLY ENDED
THEM FROM THE NORTHEAST BY MONDAY MORNING.

THE BIGGER ISSUE IN THE LONG TERM IS THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON
...SO FAR...OVER THE ENTIRE AREA FOR MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
APPARENT TEMPERATURES ARE COMING OUT IN THE 25 TO 35 BELOW ZERO
RANGE AND SO HAVE GIVEN A LITTLE MORE THAN 24 HOURS ADVANCE NOTICE
ON THE WIND CHILL HEADLINE THAT WILL BE ISSUED SOON. IN COLLABORATION
WITH GRAND FORKS HAVE OPTED TO PIECE MEAL THE ADVISORY IN...THEN
KEEP IT GOING THROUGH NOON TUESDAY...IN ORDER TO LIMIT THE
CONFUSION WITH START AND STOP TIMES. KEEPING IN MIND...AT THE SAME
TIME...THAT THE ACTUAL FORECAST CONDITIONS NEEDED TO BE CONSIDERED
AS WELL. NOON TUESDAY MAY BE TOO SOON FOR THE ADVISORY TO BE
LIFTED FROM BOTTINEAU TO JAMESTOWN...IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED
ONCE WE GET CLOSER TO THAT TIME...BUT AGAIN...LIMITING CONFUSION
AS MUCH AS POSSIBLE IS IMPORTANT.

THE CENTER OF THE 1055MB SURFACE HIGH PASSES THROUGH EASTERN MONTANA
MONDAY NIGHT / TUESDAY MORNING WITH THE FLOW OUT OF THE HIGH
CONTRIBUTING TO KEEPING THE WIND UP CLOSE TO 10 MPH AND ADDING TO
THE CHILL OF TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS BELOW ZERO. A FEW LIMITING
FACTORS TO HOW COLD IT WILL GET MONDAY NIGHT ARE...THE LACK OF FRESH
DEEP SNOW COVER LOCALLY AND UPSTREAM...COUPLED WITH WHAT COULD BE A
DIRTY HIGH WITH LOW CLOUDS AS MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW VERY HIGH LOW
LEVEL RH OVER THE AREA...ESPECIALLY WEST HALF.

WARM AIR ADVECTION GETS UNDERWAY BY TUESDAY NIGHT ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE HIGH ON A 15 MPH SOUTHWEST WIND. THAT BREEZE WILL ADD TO THE
CHILL EVEN THOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE RISE. THAT NOT SO COLD
SPELL LASTS UNTIL THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THURSDAY NIGHT /
FRIDAY MORNING. THERE IS BETTER MID LEVEL ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH
THAT PASSAGE SO A WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY...ON
THE ORDER OF AN INCH OR TWO. THE ECMWF LONG RANGE MODEL HAS COME
MORE IN LINE WITH THE GFS FOR THAT TIME PERIOD INCREASING CONFIDENCE
IN AT LEAST SOME SNOW THEN.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 305 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2014

ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. A BAND OF SNOW IS
FORECAST ALONG AND JUST BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE OF THE ARCTIC AIR
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF COLD AIR WITH IFR CEILINGS SETTING
UP AT KDIK IN UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS THERE.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AT KMOT AFTER SUNRISE SUNDAY BUR MVFR TO IFR
ELSEWHERE.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT CST /11 PM MST/ SUNDAY NIGHT
TO NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TUESDAY FOR NDZ017>020-031>037-042-
045>048-050-051.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO NOON CST TUESDAY FOR
NDZ001>005-009>013-021>023-025.

WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM MST TUESDAY FOR
NDZ040-041-043-044.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...JPM
AVIATION...WAA



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