Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 090540
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1240 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

AREAS OF SMOKE CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO 4-6 MILES OVER
MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...WITH SOME 3 MILE
VISIBILITIES REPORTED AT TIMES. THE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT UPPER
LEVELS...MID LEVELS...AND LOWER LEVELS WERE CONTINUING TO KEEP SMOKE
MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE. EVEN THOUGH SURFACE WINDS HAVE BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...LINGERING SMOKE PARTICLES EXPECTED TO AFFECT
THE SURFACE BENEATH THE ESTABLISHED LOW LEVEL INVERSION. LATER ON
WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE NORTHWESTERLY...BUT
LOWER LEVEL WINDS SHOULD BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE DAY - THUS
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW SHOULD NOT LINK UP AS READILY AND BRING THE
SMOKE ALOFT AS EASILY TO THE SURFACE. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE UPPER
LEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE MORE WESTERLY AND NOT DRAW THE SMOKE FROM THE
FIRES IN NORTHERN ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN TO NORTH DAKOTA.

CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 924 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

AREAS OF SMOKE CONTINUE TO REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO AROUND 5 MILES
OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK WITH NO MAJOR UPDATES. FRESHENED UP TEXT
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN SENT.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 639 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST ISSUE FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE AREAS OF SMOKE
REDUCING VISIBILITIES ACROSS THE STATE.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE BLOWING AREAS OF SMOKE FROM CANADIAN
WILDFIRES ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA THIS EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL CREST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR AN INVERSION
TO SET UP. LIGHT WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND SMOKE PARTICULATES
COULD PRODUCE REDUCED VSBYS IN AREAS OF SMOKE FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA TONIGHT THROUGH MID-MORNING. DO NOT EXPECT
MUCH...IF ANY...GROUND TRANSPORTATION IMPACTS. HOWEVER...IMPACTS
TO AVIATION INTERESTS COULD PRODUCE MVFR VSBYS.

AS FAR AS THE UPDATE IS CONCERNED...REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCES OF
LATE AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN CWA AS SUCH ACTIVITY
SHOULD REMAIN EAST OF THE CWA BORDER. OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING
FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE. THE UPDATED PRODUCTS HAVE
BEEN SENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

AREAS OF SMOKE ORIGINATING ACROSS NORTHWEST CANADA MOVING ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PLAINS. SOME LOCATIONS IN CANADA HAVE THE SMOKE AT THE
SURFACE REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO 5 MILES OR LESS. ADDED AREAS OF
SMOKE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT. OTHERWISE...SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH
ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ENDING THIS EVENING. CLEAR
SKIES TONIGHT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY WEDNESDAY. HIGHS WEDNESDAY IN THE
LOWER 80S SOUTHWEST TO LOWER 70S NORTH CENTRAL.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM CDT TUE JUL 8 2014

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW BECOMES SOUTHEASTERLY
THEN SOUTHERLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH IN EASTERN
MONTANA GETS ABSORBED AS A COLD FRONT SHIFTING EAT FROM ALBERTA. LOW
LEVEL JET/850MB WINDS OF 30KT MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR ELEVATED CONVECTION IN THE FAR SOUTHWEST...BUT LATEST
MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF EVEN FURTHER FROM THIS SCENARIO. HAVE TRIMMED
THE PREVIOUS AREA BACK QUITE A BIT TO REFLECT THIS AND WILL LET
SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS REVISIT THIS. OTHERWISE THE H7-H5 RIDGE FLATTENS
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING EAST OVERNIGHT WITH RESULTANT DRY
CONDITIONS.

FOR THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH A LEAD
SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM EASTERN MONTANA/SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AT
12Z INTO NORTHEAST SOUTH DAKOTA BY 00Z FRIDAY. THIS WAVE WILL BE
SUFFICIENT TO ERODE A MID LEVEL CAP IN THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON THURSDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
OTHERWISE...THE AFOREMENTIONED ALBERTA COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO FAR
WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BY 00Z FRIDAY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN THE NORTHWEST CLOSEST TO THE SURFACE LOW.
THE REST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WILL CONTINUE WITH A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT A MID LEVEL
CAP/CIN REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS. IT
WILL BE A WARM DAY AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM BETWEEN 82F AND 92F IN
ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE INTO CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA BY 06Z FRIDAY...AND INTO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY BY 12Z
FRIDAY. THUS WILL CONTINUE WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG TO SEVERE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT.

FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY A DRY FORECAST FRIDAY AS THURSDAY
NIGHTS SYSTEM DEPARTS. ALTHOUGH ENOUGH INSTABILITY RESIDES IN THE
FAR SOUTH AND SOUTHERN JAMES RIVER VALLEY FOR A CONTINUED SLIGHT
CHANCE MENTION OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. ANOTHER SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHEASTERN MONTANA FRIDAY NIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A
CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM HUDSON BAY. THIS WILL SPARK
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS...LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SATURDAY FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE ECMWF KEEPS THE
PRECIPITATION CONFINED TO SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA...WHILE THE GFS IS
MORE WIDESPREAD. THE ALLBLEND SEEMS TO COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE TWO
SOLUTIONS WITH A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION SOUTH AND A SLIGHT CHANCE
AS YOU PROGRESS FARTHER NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH DURING THE DAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN UNUSUALLY STRONG
NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND A CLOSED UPPER LOW NEAR HUDSON BAY. SOME
AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST MAINLY OVER CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS UPPER LOW WILL IS FORECAST TO
SLIDE INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES BY MONDAY...AND INTO SOUTHWEST
QUEBEC BY TUESDAY. THIS WILL PRODUCE A DRY AND COOL NORTHWEST FLOW
FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY BE IN THE
70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1240 AM CDT WED JUL 9 2014

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AT UPPER...MID...AND LOWER LEVELS CONTINUED TO
BLOW AREAS OF SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES ACROSS NORTH DAKOTA
EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE
REGION TONIGHT...AND AN INVERSION HAS ALREADY SET UP. THE LIGHT
WINDS...CLEAR SKIES...AND SMOKE PARTICULATES WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO
PRODUCE MVFR VSBYS IN AREAS OF SMOKE FOR MOST OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA THROUGH MID-MORNING.

LATEST OBSERVATIONS INDICATED SKC-BKN CLOUDS AT 4000-5000 FEET...BUT
SAT PICS NOT VALIDATING THESE OBSERVATIONS...AND THINK THAT THE CIG
INDICATORS ON THE ASOS INSTRUMENTS ARE DETECTING SMOKE PARTICLES
THAT HAVE CONCENTRATED AT OR BELOW THE TOP OF THE INVERSION.
THEREFORE TAFS WILL REFLECT FEW TO SCT CLOUDS AT KMOT AND KJMS WERE
THE POSSIBILITY OF LINGERING CU RESIDES.

VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP AREAWIDE AFTER MID-MORNING WEDNESDAY
AS WINDS BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY AND VERTICAL MIXING DEVELOPS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...JV





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