Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 281741
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1241 PM CDT THU JUL 28 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Main issue with the early afternoon update was temperatures and
pops. Expect a little clearing this afternoon from north to south
but generally mostly cloudy across the southwest and south
central. With the clouds and earlier showers, think portions of
the southwest and south central will struggle to reach forecast
highs. Utilized our blended short term guidance for highs today
which lowered highs a few degrees. shower activity across the
southwest and south central continues to slide slowly southeast.
lowered the areal coverage of pops but did keep at least a slight
chance over most of the southwest through the afternoon as most
cams do show some afternoon re-development of showers here

UPDATE Issued at 933 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Showers across the southwest and south central continue to slowly
dissipate as they move southeast. Otherwise mostly cloud southwest
and south central, with partly sunny skies north and east. Made
some minor adjustments to pops based on latest radar imagery and
updated latest sensible weather elements.

UPDATE Issued at 642 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

This update will focus on pops and rainfall amounts for the early
morning hours. CAM models track a vort center across southwest
North Dakota this morning. This seems to line up well with the
convection across the southwest. Updated pops with teh HRRR runs
and smoothed.

UPDATE Issued at 504 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

Updated the morning pops with latest HRRR run to better focus on
the showers across west central into south central North Dakota.
Also upped the rainfall as MMRS shows potential half inch to one
inch rain in portions of Morton and Mercer counties with these
showers.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

The short term period will see a weak h700-h500 trough slide
across the forecast area impacting mainly west central through
south central North Dakota with showers and scattered
thunderstorms this morning through early evening. Removed the
mention of fog this morning as cloud cover more widespread owing
to the re-development of showers and thunderstorms west and south
of the Missouri river this morning.

NAM bufkit soundings show very limited shear and cape all of the
area except the far west today. With that in mind the best chance
for thunderstorms will be limited to the southwest. HRRR shows the
surface trough migrating to the west during the day resulting in
surface convergence drifting west also by this afternoon. By tonight
the upper features move southeast and expect pops to diminish and
end.

Another pleasantly cool day for July is expected Thursday with
highs mainly in the low to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

During this period, an upper level low now circulating over the Gulf
of Alaska will make a path into southern British Columbia Sunday,
before curving northeast and moving into central/northern
Saskatchewan Monday through Wednesday of next week. In doing so, the
upper level wind flow will transition from northwest to quasi zonal
by Saturday. Generally dry Friday and Saturday with a couple of weak
shortwaves within the flow, but not producing much if any
precipitation during this period. Southwest flow aloft along with
increasing low level moisture advection commences Saturday night
through Sunday which during this time, will result in increased
chances for showers and thunderstorms, especially Sunday into Sunday
night. This is when a surface cold front is forecast to shift
through with increasing instability. The pattern remains active next
week, with another system slated Tuesday night through Wednesday
night.

Temperatures will warm through Sunday ahead of the advancing upper
low and surface cold front with highs in the 80s Saturday, then
upper 80s to lower 90s Sunday. Behind the cold front next week,
expect highs in the upper 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1229 PM CDT Thu Jul 28 2016

MVFR ceilings in KDIK AND KJMS are expected to lift by mid afternoon.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are forecast for KBIS/KISN/KMOT through
the 18Z TAF period.

&&

.BIS Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...KS
AVIATION...AC



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