000
FXUS63 KBIS 150229
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
929 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

THE RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 02 UTC. WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PROPAGATE INTO WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. WHILE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING IS EXPECTED
TONIGHT...THE LATEST 18 UTC GUIDANCE SUITE SUGGESTS THAT
TEMPERATURES SUPPORTIVE OF FROST SHOULD NOT BE REACHED.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 746 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

UPDATE TO CANCEL THE REMAINDER OF THE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS CENTRAL
NORTH DAKOTA. NO OTHER CHANGES NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 554 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

QUICK UPDATE TO CANCEL THE WIND ADVISORY ACROSS WESTERN NORTH
DAKOTA AS WINDS HAVE FALLEN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. THE ADVISORY
REMAINS IN PLACE THROUGH 02 UTC FOR CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 83. THE HIGHEST WINDS
WITH GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH WILL LIKELY BE FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY WHERE THE STRONGEST ISALLOBARIC
FORCING AND GRADIENT WINDS ARE CO-LOCATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

VERY HIGH END WIND ADVISORY THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR
40 MPH WITH WIND GUSTS TO 55 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. A FEW ISOLATED HIGH WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED FROM MINOT TO
ROLLA. DEBATED HIGH WIND WARNING BUT THINK ANY REPORTS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ISOLATED. AS SUNSET APPROACHES THE LINKUP WILL END
AND WINDS WILL RAPIDLY FALL AFTER 8 PM. COOL AIR ALOFT OVER
NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA SEEMS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE CU FIELD. THIS
WILL DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AND SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR.
OVERNIGHT LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD FALL INTO THE 40S WITH CLEARING
SKIES AND DRY AIR. LOWERED MIN TEMPS TONIGHT FROM CURRENT
FORECAST ABOUT 2 TO 3 DEGREES. ON WEDNESDAY...A QUIET DAY WITHOUT
WEATHER HEADLINES. WEST WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 327 CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

THE FOCUS IN THE LONG TERM WILL BE ON PRECIPITATION THURSDAY THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

SLIGHT RIDGING OVER THE ROCKIES WILL DEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL
MOVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS THURSDAY...REPLACING THE QUASI ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. RIDGING WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS AS A
TROUGH DIGS IN OVER THE WEST COAST. THIS SET UP WILL PROVIDE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS THE
TROUGH PROPAGATES FROM THE WEST COAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES THURSDAY
INTO SATURDAY. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH SATURDAY ON THE
PLACEMENT AND EVEN INTENSITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. MODELS
BEGIN TO DIVERGE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE
CUT OFF UPPER LEVEL LOW AND TROUGH. THE 12 UTC GFS AND GEM SOLUTIONS
HAVE SWITCHED FROM PREVIOUS DAYS AND PLACED THE UPPER LEVEL CUT OFF
LOW OVER SOUTH DAKOTA AND NEBRASKA SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ON THE OTHER
HAND THE 12 UTC ECMWF SOLUTION HAS DONE AWAY WITH THE CUT OFF UPPER
LEVEL LOW ALL TOGETHER AND MOVES THE TROUGH EAST OF THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE MONDAY...WHICH IS EARLIER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. HOW
MODELS DEAL WITH THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL HAVE
TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE WEEK...AS IT WILL PLAY A LARGE ROLE IN
HOW LONG WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL STICK AROUND IF AT ALL OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA MONDAY AND TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

WHILE MODELS DISAGREE ON THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN SUNDAY AND
BEYOND...THEY DO AGREE THAT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION START THURSDAY
AND LAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WPC HAS PRECIPITATION TOTALS FROM AN
INCH TO AN INCH AND A HALF THROUGH MONDAY OF NEXT WEEK FOR JUST
ABOUT ALL CENTRAL AND WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. THIS WOULD BE MORE THAN
SUFFICIENT RAINFALL TO INCREASE GREENNESS ACROSS THE STATE AND
MINIMIZE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. IN ADDITION MOST LOCATIONS CAN
EXPECT TO COME UP TO NEAR AVERAGE FOR PRECIPITATION FOR THIS TIME IN
MAY.

LOOKING AT SEVERE CHANCES FROM THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN...IT
SEEMS THE FIRST CHANCE MAY BE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE
SOUTHWEST. CAPE VALUES HAVE DECREASED FROM YESTERDAYS 12 UTC GFS
MODEL RUN TO AROUND 400 J/KG...HOWEVER DEEP LAYER BULK SHEAR
POSSIBLY IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE AND AMPLE MOISTURE COULD CERTAINLY
PROVIDE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THERE WILL ALSO BE CHANCES ON FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL FROM A SURFACE LOW AND
WARM FRONT TO SET UP IN SOUTH DAKOTA. OVER THIS TIME FRAME DEEP
LAYER BULK SHEAR VALUES MAY BE IN THE 40 TO 50 KT RANGE WITH CAPE
VALUES POSSIBLY IN THE 1000 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE. THIS IS CERTAINLY
ENOUGH FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH THE BEST CHANCE SOUTH CENTRAL ON SATURDAY.
HOWEVER...SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WILL
ALMOST CERTAINLY BE LIMITED IN SOME RESPECT BY CLOUD COVER AND THE
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY GOING ON.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE 00 UTC TAF CYCLE AS WINDS
ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS
SUNSET APPROACHES.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 929 PM CDT TUE MAY 14 2013

FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE LOW WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE COMING
WEEKEND. MUCH NEEDED MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY
HELPING TO GREEN UP VEGETATION ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...MM/KS
AVIATION...AYD
FIRE WEATHER...AYD