Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 140847
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
247 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT DEVELOPED
BEFORE MIDNIGHT - ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW THAT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE. WILL BE ADDING A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BECAUSE OF THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND EXTENDING THE ADVISORY THAT ENCOMPASSES ALL
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL NOON CST.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM MANITOBA
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS. A CIRCULATION WAS NOTED
IN THE SATELLITE PICS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...WITH ANOTHER CIRCULATION NOTED IN THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS
OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THE AREA OF SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH EASTWARD...WITH THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW NEAR BOTTINEAU AND EAST OF THE MINOT AREA
IN THE NORTH CENTRAL...AND IN THE JAMES RIVER BASIN. AT THE
SURFACE...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR STANLEY TO GLEN ULLIN AND
EAST OF HETTINGER...WHERE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS HAD DEVELOPED AND
LOW CLOUDS WERE DISSIPATING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS DID SHOW THAT ONCE THE SNOW ENDS IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THAT A DEEP LAYER OF SUPERCOOLED AIR WITH NO ICE CRYSTALS
ABOVE IT WOULD DOMINATE CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
DEVELOPED AT BISMARCK AND LIGHT RADAR RETURNS SURROUNDING THE
BISMARCK RADAR CONFIRM THAT LIGHT FOG PARTICLES/DRIZZLE WERE INTENSE
ENOUGH TO BE DETECTED BY RADAR. MENTION OF FOG WEST OF THE SNOW
BANDS ARE LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY FREEZING DRIZZLE. THINKING AREA OF
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS BETWEEN THE AREA OF SNOW IN THE EAST AND
THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST. WILL ADDRESS THIS WITH THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AND
HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 FAR SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 30 TURTLE
MOUNTAINS/JAMES VALLEY. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON. A MILD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS COMING WEEK...WITH
RESULTANT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD. THE 00 UTC
NAEFS MEAN 850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO
THEIR 97.5 TO 99.5+ PERCENTILES BY THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
50S FOR HIGHS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BY
THURSDAY...POSSIBLY APPROACHING RECORD VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1227 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH/WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM SASKATCHEWAN
ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA BETWEEN STANLEY/MINOT TO DICKINSON/GLEN
ULLIN. SOUTHEAST WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND
IT. AREA OF LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BE ENDING AT KMOT SOON BUT CONTINUING
AT KJMS THROUGH AROUND 11Z-14Z OR SO. SNOW HAD ENDED AT KBIS BUT NOW
AN AREA OF FREEZING DRIZZLE HAD DEVELOPED BEHIND THE LIGHT SNOW.
THINK WILL SEE SOME PATCHY FZDZ AT KMOT AS WELL ONCE BAND OF LIGHT
SNOW HAS MOVED THROUGH BY AROUND 08Z. MAY NEED TO ADD TO KJMS LATER
THIS MORNING ON THE BACK EDGE OF LIGHT SNOW. OTHERWISE WHEN WESTERLY
WINDS ARRIVE AND TEMPERATURES RISE...THIS SHOULD END THE THREAT OF
FREEZING DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE FROM MVFR/IFR TO VFR
FROM WEST TO EAST...BEGINNING AT KDIK AROUND 12Z AND KISN AROUND
14Z...AND KBIS/KMOT AFT 18Z.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...JV


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