Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 240039
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
639 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

.UPDATE...
Issued at 633 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

The RAP/HRRR/GFSLAMP/NBM through their 23 UTC iterations continue
to favor fog development across central into northwest North
Dakota on the periphery of the stratus bank. A couple surface
observations are beginning to show restrictions across the
northwest into southern Saskatchewan as of 00 UTC. A Dense Fog
Advisory may be needed at some point this evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

A well defined band of stratus continues to move through central
North Dakota late Tuesday afternoon. The cloud line will define a
temperature discontinuity tonight as temperatures in the clear
areas fall more rapidly west central this evening. Also the short
term guidance has been consistently showing fog redevelopment
along the cloud boundary from northwest through west central
North Dakota this evening. Will follow this based on guidance
supported by persistence.

At this time will not issue a fog advisory but will mention the
threat for patchy dense fog in the Hazardous Weather Outlook.

Wednesday will see a mix of sun and clouds with more clouds
central and more sun west. Highs Wednesday will warm into the
upper 30s to near 40 southwest. With the 20s in more cloudy areas
north and east. Still no sign of precipitation.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 245 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

A broad h500 ridge across the northern plains Thursday will
support mild temperatures with highs into the lower 40s southwest
and the 30s north. Friday will see a pacific cold frontal passage
with gusty winds of 20 to 30 mph. Temperatures will still mild
with only spotty light precipitation across the region. Highs
through the weekend will still be near or above normal most areas
with Saturday and Sunday in the 20s and 30s. Then another ridge
builds into the region with mild weather into the 30s and lower
40s Monday and 20s and 30s Tuesday. Mainly dry through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 633 PM CST Tue Jan 23 2018

Widespread IFR to VLIFR conditions in freezing fog and stratus
central and northwest tonight. Improvement is expected across the
northwest early Wednesday morning, however, freezing fog and
stratus will likely continue through Wednesday morning central,
possibly into the afternoon across portions of the James River
Valley into far north central North Dakota. VFR conditions are
expected elsewhere for the 00 UTC TAF cycle across western North
Dakota.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...PA
SHORT TERM...WAA
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...PA



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