Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 270457
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
1157 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

LATEST FOG/STRATUS LOOP SHOWS MOSTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY CONDITIONS
FROM BISMARCK/MANDAN...EAST AND SOUTH. A CLEAR SKY WAS OBSERVED
ELSEWHERE. LATEST HRRR CIG/VSBY FORECAST SHOWS CLOUDS ERODING
WHICH IS ON TRACK PER SATELLITE LOOP OVER THE LAST HOUR. HOWEVER
THIS AREA OF CLEARING IS REPLACED BY FOG OVERNIGHT WHERE WE HAD
THE LIGHT RAIN EARLIER TUESDAY. CONCUR WITH THIS IDEA...BUT
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW WIDESPREAD AND DENSE FOG WILL BECOME IS THE
MAIN ISSUE FOR THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WILL CONTINUE
WITH THE CURRENT PATCHY FOG WORDING AND MONITOR OVERNIGHT. REST OF
FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE ON TRACK.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1000 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

CONTINUED TREND TO DECREASE RAIN SOUTHEAST...LAMOURE AND DICKEY
COUNTIES...OVER THE NEXT TWO HOURS...AND DECREASE CLOUDS THROUGH
THE NIGHT.

PATCHY FOG CONTINUES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE DAYBREAK TIME FRAME.

JP MARTIN

UPDATE ISSUED AT 735 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

HAVE TIMED THE SHOWERS OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST ART OF THE FORECAST
AREA FOR BETWEEN 10 AND 11 PM CDT THIS EVENING. THEN DECREASED
CLOUDS NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. HAVE INTRODUCED PATCHY FOG ACROSS
THE SOUTH...FROM BOWMAN AND BISMARCK TO ELLENDALE AND JAMESTOWN
FOR AROUND DAYBREAK. DEW POINTS ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE
UPPER 40S WITH ACTUAL TEMPERATURES IN THE SAME BALLPARK. THIS IS
ALSO THE AREA THAT RECEIVED LIGHT RAIN THIS AFTERNOON / EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A NICE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN...IN ADDITION TO
AN AREA OF STRONG UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE DAKOTAS. THIS HAS PRODUCED SUFFICIENT
FORCING...COMBINED WITH WEAK ISENTROPIC LIFT TO PRODUCE A NARROW
BAND OF SHOWERS ACROSS SOUTHWEST INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA. THE PAST FEW RUNS OF THE RAP/HRRR HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT IN SPREADING THIS BAND ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTO EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA...ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 94. AREAS AFFECTED
WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO AN PRETTY NARROW BAND WITH RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF ONLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS.

EXPECT THESE SHOWERS TO EXIT THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY LATER THIS
EVENING WITH CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THEREAFTER. STILL A COOL
NIGHT IN STORE...BUT WITH LOW-MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO WARM...LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 40S TO
LOWER 50S.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ON WEDNESDAY WILL HELP BUMP OUR DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 70S...WITH A FEW LOWER 80S POSSIBLE FAR
WEST.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)

ISSUED AT 310 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

QUIET/ZONAL FLOW AT THE ONSET OF THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL
TRANSITION TO MORE ACTIVE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AS AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES INLAND AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS.

DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
WITH THE MAIN STORM TRACKS NORTH AND SOUTH OF NORTH DAKOTA.
EMBEDDED LEAD S/WV IMPULSE EJECTING OUT OF AN ALASKAN LONG WAVE
TROUGH IS THEN DEPICTED TO APPROACH AND MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON BRINGING AN
ISOLATED THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION.

BETTER AND MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION CHANCES ARRIVE SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHEN OUR FLOW ALOFT BECOMES
SOUTHWESTERLY AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LONG WAVE TROUGH DEVELOPS
SOUTHWEST INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...THEN MOVES EAST ACROSS THE
ROCKIES AND THROUGH THE GREAT PLAINS.

TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL...WITH
HIGHS IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND 50S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1157 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

LIGHT RAIN FROM TUESDAY...ALONG WITH DECREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT
WINDS AT KBIS TO KJMS WILL PROMOTE FOG DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 15Z
WEDNESDAY. WILL MAINTAIN MVFR VSBYS FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE AND
MONITOR OVERNIGHT FOR POSSIBLE ADJUSTMENTS DOWNWARD. OTHERWISE...SKC
FOR THE REMAINING TERMINALS WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.
INDICATION BEYOND 00Z THURSDAY IS POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS APPEARING
AT KBIS AND KJMS AS MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTH FROM SOUTH
DAKOTA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...TWH
LONG TERM...NH
AVIATION...KS






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