Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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433
FXUS63 KBIS 081250
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
650 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

.UPDATE...
Issued at 637 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

Winds have been slowly diminishing early this morning which has
helped visibilities improve across the region. Considered
cancelling the winter weather advisory, but decided against it
since there could still be areas, especially in open country, that
experience reduced visibilities this morning. The wind chill
advisory is generally on track and also continued that with this
update.

The main adjustments were to blend in current conditions and
adjust pops to focus them more towards the eastern part of the
forecast area. That being said, we held onto small pops across the
central part of the state since it has been easy to generate
flurries / light snow in this arctic airmass.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 314 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

Early morning regional radar mosaic and surface observations show
the light snow is now mainly confined to eastern portions of the
state. The general model consensus is that the snow chances should
gradually wane through the day as it ends from west to east across
the forecast area. Winds have remained gusty, especially from the
Turtle Mountains southward towards the southern James River
Valley. Visibilities remain restricted in the 1-3 mile range where
the current winter weather advisory is in place. Will hold onto
the headline for now and allow winds to subside a little more this
morning.

Wind chills have already reached advisory criteria in parts of the
west this morning. Temperatures should continue to drop for
several more hours, so will also keep the wind chill advisory
going this morning.

The challenge for later tonight will be clouds and temperatures.
It appears clouds could remain in some locations, but it may not
be a solid overcast. Anywhere the clouds break, temperatures will
quickly drop with arctic high pressure in place, potentially
leading to very cold temperatures.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 314 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

The next chance for accumulating snow appears to still be on
track for Saturday. There is still spread within the models
solutions and this is easily seen in the GEFS and SREF plumes. For
now, continued with a model blend for pops and qpf which is also
in line with WPC. The remainder of the forecast should be
dominated by cold temperatures. Highs should generally be in the
single digits above zero, with lows in the single digits and teens
below.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 637 AM CST Thu Dec 8 2016

Winds will gradually diminish today. In general, have gone with
VFR conditions, though KISN is an exception with MVFR ceilings at
times. Blowing snow has been diminishing, so have it at KMOT in a
tempo group for only a few hours this morning. The blowing snow
could linger longer at KJMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Chill Advisory until noon CST /11 AM MST/ today for
NDZ001>003-009>011-017>021-031>035-040>046.

Winter Weather Advisory until 9 AM CST this morning for NDZ004-
005-012-013-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...CK
SHORT TERM...CK
LONG TERM...CK
AVIATION...AJ



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