Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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213
FXUS63 KBIS 011253
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
653 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 646 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

Given trends in 09-11 UTC RAP, 00-06 UTC NAM, and 03 UTC SREF,
increased PoPs and snow amounts for northwest and much of central
North Dakota for this evening and into the early overnight. Most
ingredients are in place for a quick two to four inches of snow in
moderate to heavy banding with steep mid level lapse rates, strong
850-600mb frontogenesis and omega in the dendritic growth zone as
a clipper impacts western and central North Dakota.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 318 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

Different day...same story. An upper level wave this morning is
producing light snow across central North Dakota. This area of
snow will continue to push off to the southeast and should be out
of the area by noon.

Another wave will move in tonight. A more northwest to southeast
oriented band is expected tonight. Generally 1 to 3 inches is
expected from Portal...down through Minot...Harvey...Jamestown and
Oakes.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 318 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

The trend continues Thursday and Friday, with another wave
sliding through Thursday night into early Friday bringing snow
chances. Changes are in store for the weekend. Friday a ridge
starts building into the area bringing warmer temperatures. This
will remain into the weekend, though locations over north central
North Dakota may not warm quite as much where a denser snowpack
remains. A few weak waves move through during the weekend into
early next week bringing an occasional chance for rain or snow.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 646 AM CST Wed Mar 1 2017

One clipper system this morning will continue light snow across
south central North Dakota with occasional IFR visibility in snow
possible. A stronger clipper this evening and tonight will bring
heavier snow and IFR/LIFR visibility possible. MVFR/IFR ceilings
will persist for much of the 12 UTC TAF period.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...AJ
LONG TERM...AJ
AVIATION...AYD



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