Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 252304
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
604 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

WEAK SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA...WITH SOME RATHER IMPRESSIVE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL INTO EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AS DEWPOINTS WERE IN THE MIDDLE
50S. WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM NEBRASKA PANHANDLE INTO
WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. AFTERNOON INSTABILITY HAS PRODUCED
SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND EXPECT THESE TO
DIMINISH AS WE HEAD TOWARDS SUNSET. LOW TO MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
AND STEEP LAPSE RATES HAVE HEIGHTENED THE SPC NON SUPERCELL
TORNADO PARAMETER OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. DID HAVE A
REPORT OF A FUNNEL EARLIER TODAY NEAR JUD AND CANNOT RULE OUT
ADDITIONAL FUNNELS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE HAS BEEN NO
LIGHTNING THIS AFTERNOON AND THESE FUNNELS ARE USUALLY SHORT LIVED
AND RARELY REACH THE GROUND. THEY ARE NOT ASSOCIATED WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS. DID MAKE SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS BASED ON
LATEST RADAR. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE GOING
FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING
HIGHLIGHT THE SHORT TERM FORECAST.

AS DEPICTED WELL BY THE HRRR RUNS FROM THIS MORNING AND THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SURFACE BASED CONVECTION
CONTINUES TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN WEAK INSTABILITY...ANY THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH MORE ISOLATED COMPARED TO THE MORE
DOMINANT RAIN SHOWER MODE. GIVEN THE DIURNAL NATURE OF THIS
CONVECTION AND LACK OF STRONG FORCING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL FADE WITH SUNSET. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE FOR TONIGHT...DID ADD A PATCHY FOG MENTION TO THE SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST WITH RAINFALL FROM EARLIER TODAY...CLEARING
SKIES TONIGHT AND LIGHT WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SURFACE HIGH.

A MILD TUESDAY IS EXPECTED WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 70S TO LOWER 80S
IN A RATHER DEFUSE SURFACE PRESSURE PATTERN. THERE IS A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND UPPER JAMES RIVER
VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH WEAK IMPULSES
EMBEDDED IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. ONCE AGAIN GIVEN WEAK
INSTABILITY...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 331 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

A PERSISTING REX BLOCKING PATTERN...OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...IS
PROJECTED WITHIN THE CURRENT ENSEMBLE AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS TO
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED. SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL
RESULT AND CONTINUE OVER NORTH DAKOTA INTO THE WEEKEND.

THEREAFTER...A TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW IS PROJECTED BY THE LONG
TERM MODELS. OVERALL...SEVERAL EMBEDDED SHORTS WAVES WITHIN THE
NORTHERN STREAM ALOFT WILL RESULT IN SEVERAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE LONG TERM. AS OF NOW...THE GREATEST
CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ARE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE COMPLEXITY OF THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW HAS
RESULTED IN HIGHER THAN NORMAL MODEL UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 550 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

VFR CUMULUS FIELDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING.
POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED SHOWER THROUGH 02 UTC. OTHERWISE CLEAR TO
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A LIGHT SURFACE FLOW THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TWH
SHORT TERM...AYD
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...TWH


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