Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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384
FXUS63 KBIS 141239
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
639 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 634 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE OTHER
THAN TO BLEND TO OBSERVED TRENDS THROUGH 12 UTC. CONTINUED THE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ACROSS CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA WITH FREEZING
DRIZZLE STILL FAVORED UNDER THE STRATUS DECK WITH ICE CRYSTALS
LACKING THROUGH MUCH OF THE COLUMN AS OBSERVED ON THE 12 UTC KBIS
SOUNDING. HOWEVER...SATURATION AT THE TOP OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LAYER DOES APPROACH -10 TO -12 C...ALLOWING FOR A
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW OCCASIONALLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

MAIN CONCERN IN THE SHORT TERM IS FREEZING DRIZZLE THAT DEVELOPED
BEFORE MIDNIGHT - ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE AREA OF LIGHT SNOW THAT
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE. WILL BE ADDING A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY BACK INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA BECAUSE OF THE
FREEZING DRIZZLE...AND EXTENDING THE ADVISORY THAT ENCOMPASSES ALL
OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA UNTIL NOON CST.

CURRENTLY...UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM MANITOBA
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN DAKOTAS. A CIRCULATION WAS NOTED
IN THE SATELLITE PICS OVER SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEASTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...WITH ANOTHER CIRCULATION NOTED IN THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOPS
OVER THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS AND DEVILS LAKE BASIN. THE AREA OF SNOW
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORTWAVE CONTINUED TO PUSH EASTWARD...WITH THE
WESTERN EDGE OF THE SNOW NEAR BOTTINEAU AND EAST OF THE MINOT AREA
IN THE NORTH CENTRAL...AND IN THE JAMES RIVER BASIN. AT THE
SURFACE...A WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR STANLEY TO GLEN ULLIN AND
EAST OF HETTINGER...WHERE WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS HAD DEVELOPED AND
LOW CLOUDS WERE DISSIPATING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS DID SHOW THAT ONCE THE SNOW ENDS IN CENTRAL NORTH
DAKOTA THAT A DEEP LAYER OF SUPERCOOLED AIR WITH NO ICE CRYSTALS
ABOVE IT WOULD DOMINATE CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THE FREEZING DRIZZLE
DEVELOPED AT BISMARCK AND LIGHT RADAR RETURNS SURROUNDING THE
BISMARCK RADAR CONFIRM THAT LIGHT FOG PARTICLES/DRIZZLE WERE INTENSE
ENOUGH TO BE DETECTED BY RADAR. MENTION OF FOG WEST OF THE SNOW
BANDS ARE LIKELY ACCOMPANIED BY FREEZING DRIZZLE. THINKING AREA OF
PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE IS BETWEEN THE AREA OF SNOW IN THE EAST AND
THE WARM FRONT TO THE WEST. WILL ADDRESS THIS WITH THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY IN PLACE FOR ALL OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA.

THE WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST ACROSS THE STATE TODAY...AND
HIGHS SHOULD RANGE FROM AROUND 40 FAR SOUTHWEST TO AROUND 30 TURTLE
MOUNTAINS/JAMES VALLEY. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT MAY BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN TO FAR SOUTHWESTERN NORTH DAKOTA
THIS AFTERNOON. A MILD NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WESTERLY WINDS AND
LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S ARE EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 241 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES HIGHLIGHT THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

THE 00 UTC SUITES ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A BROAD UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BUILDING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS THIS COMING WEEK...WITH
RESULTANT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THE PERIOD. THE 00 UTC
NAEFS MEAN 850 MB TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES ARE FORECAST TO CLIMB TO
THEIR 97.5 TO 99.5+ PERCENTILES BY THURSDAY ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. THIS SUPPORTS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD
50S FOR HIGHS ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BY
THURSDAY...POSSIBLY APPROACHING RECORD VALUES.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 634 AM CST SUN FEB 14 2016

AT 1230Z A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH/WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE
BORDER OF SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA TO NEAR KMOT TO NEAR KBIS AND ALONG
THE MISSOURI RIVER SOUTH INTO SD. WEST OF THE FRONT AT KISN/KDIK
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL PREVAIL...AND MVFR CIGS TO BECOME VFR
BY AROUND 13Z-15Z THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
FRONT AT KBIS/KMOT/KJMS LOOK FOR IFR/MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS IN LIGHT
SNOW...FOG AND FREEZING DRIZZLE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING AT KMOT/KBIS
BY 18Z. KJMS TO REMAIN MVFR/IFR UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON CST /11 AM MST/ TODAY FOR
NDZ003>005-011>013-019>023-025-034>037-042-045>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AYD
SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...AYD
AVIATION...AYD



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