Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 142023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
223 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 223 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Warm air advection highlights the short term period with record
highs in the west. Patchy fog/clouds along and east of the
Missouri River highlight the tonight through Wednesday morning
time period.

Visible imagery shows mostly sunny conditions with high clouds
pushing from northwest to southeast. The latest water vapor imagery
indicates a shortwave now into southeast Saskatchewan, initialized
well by the RAP13, will advance to near Minot by 22z/4PM CST, and
into Linton by 00z/6PM CST. Again, expect mostly high clouds,
with some mid level cloud component per upstream observations and
BUFKIT soundings through early evening central ND.

One additional minor shortwave now over south central Alberta will
slide across western and central ND Wednesday with little or no
consequence at this time.

Warm air advection continues to strengthen from west to east
tonight. Snowmelt resulting in a shallow moist boundary layer
with warmer air/stable conditions aloft will result in patchy fog
and/or stratus developing tonight mainly along and east of the
Missouri River. Used the HRRR as a basis for the clouds and
visibility trends. It appears the James River Valley could hold
onto the lower clouds through Wednesday morning, and this can be
refined later this evening as higher resolution model extends
farther out through this period.

Otherwise a mid/upper level ridge axis over the northern rockies
will gradually shift/tilt into the northern high plains Thursday.
In doing so, warm air advection will peak Thursday with 850mb
temperatures forecast of +12C to +14C. Used a blend of the
previous forecasts and the max of all GFE models. Still looking at
record high temperatures Wednesday at Dickinson and near record
highs at Williston as highs reach between 50F and 55F. Elsewhere
highs will be in the upper 40s central to upper 30s Turtle

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 223 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Record high temperatures are expected at Dickinson Thursday with
near record highs at Williston and Minot. Expect highs in the low
to mid 50s west and central to lower 60s southwest. The coolest
readings will occur from the Turtle Mountains south into the James
River Valley with highs in the mid 40s.

As the ridge axis shifts east Friday, the mid/upper height fields
flatten as a series of shortwaves begin to eject from the west
coast into the central/northern plains. Thus, Friday through the
extended period and beyond, we will see a return towards a west
coast trough, resulting in a more active period for western and
central ND. Expect to see the effects of this pattern change
really begin to show up Monday as a progressive shortwave trough
slides through with a chance of rain and snow. Another shortwave
is forecast for Tuesday night into Wednesday, with perhaps a
stronger system Thursday or Friday. However beyond the Tuesday
time period, the GFS and ECMWF diverge on the path/location of the
stronger system late next week. High temperatures through early
next week are forecast mostly in the lower to mid 40s most areas
with upper 30s north.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Wednesday afternoon)
Issued at 223 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Vfr cigs/vsbys until 05z Wednesday. Thereafter, mainly along and
east of the Missouri River, KISN/KMOT/KBIS/KJMS will be susceptible
to patchy fog and mvfr vsbys at times until 17z Wednesday.
However high resolution model trends indicate that KJMS will
experience the lowest cigs of 500FT/IFR cigs, and/or mvfr vsbys
from 06z Weds through 17z Weds.


Issued at 223 PM CST Tue Feb 14 2017

Unseasonably warm temperatures across the region will continue
this week and will speed the snow melt. Up to this point, the melt
rate has been very mild with water being trapped in the remaining
snow, or in the upper few inches of the ground. As warm
temperatures persist, pathways will open for meltwater to reach
streams and rivers, and levels will rise.

Overall, this early melt should be beneficial with helping
remove excess moisture from river basins in the southern and
western parts of North Dakota. Watersheds including the Knife,
Heart, and Cannonball Rivers should be on the watch for rising
water levels and an increased risk of ice related high water near
the end of the week. To a lesser extent, the Apple and Beaver
Creek basins may also see the onset of runoff this week as their
robust snowpack proves more resilient.




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