Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 120858
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
358 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

THE MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD IS ONGOING
PRECIPITATION TYPE/AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH FOR TODAY...THEN
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL ENERGY IMPULSE WAS OVER THE EASTERN
DAKOTAS...MAINLY AFFECTING THE RED RIVER VALLEY AREA EARLY THIS
SATURDAY MORNING. FARTHER NORTH ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AND NORTH
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA...ANOTHER IMPULSE WAS MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE STATE. WHILE MOST RADAR RETURNS HAVE BEEN
LIGHT...THERE HAVE BEEN POCKETS OF HIGHER INTENSITY RETURNS LIKELY
INDICATIVE OF ENHANCED PRECIPITATION...MAINLY IN THE BOTTINEAU
COUNTY AND THE RUGBY AREA. ROLLA HAD BEEN REPORTING 1-2 MILES
VISIBILITY IN LIGHT SNOW.

THE UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE NORTH IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST BY NOON...THUS KEPT HIGHER CHANCES OF SHOWERS THERE IN THE
MORNING. HOWEVER...WE ARE STILL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF CYCLONIC FLOW
ALOFT THROUGH THE DAY AND INTO TONIGHT. SO KEPT CHANCES OF SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST...MAINLY NORTH AND THROUGH THE EVENING.

ALONG WITH THE UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
ENTER WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA LATER THIS MORNING AND SWEEP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT
SHOULD INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH WITH SOME HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE. THE
STRONGEST COLD ADVECTION APPEARS TO BEGIN DURING MID-AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING...AND THUS KEPT THE 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS THROUGH
THE EVENING...AND INTO THE LATE NIGHT PERIOD FOR THE EAST AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE COLD ADVECTION WILL BE EVIDENT WITH DIFFERENCES IN MAX
TEMPERATURES FORECAST TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE IN THE LOWER 40S
ALONG THE CANADIAN BORDER...WHILE THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY SHOULD SEE
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. A COOL NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 20S AS COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE
STATE.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
COMING WEEK AS A LARGE HUDSON BAY LOW DEFINES THE H500 FLOW
REGIME OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE US AND CANADA.
COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS EXPECTED
AS THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LIMIT
MOISTURE AND LIFT GENERATING LITTLE PRECIPITATION. BUT BY
WEDNESDAY...A PACIFIC SHORTWAVE INTRUDES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
SPARKING LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES EXITS
BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS FOR THIS PERIOD...WITH THE GFS BEING A
BIT FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE SURFACE LOW. AS A RESULT THE
GFS IS COLDER THAN THE ECMWF. NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE ON THE MODELS
TO DEPART FROM THE ALLBLEND GUIDANCE BUT IF THE ECMWF IS BELIEVED
THEN A BIT MORE PRECIP IS POSSIBLE...MORE LIKELY RAIN AND SNOW
MIX WITH THE WARMER ECMWF IS POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY. FOR NOW WILL
MAINTAIN THE LOWER POPS OF THE ALLBLEND. BY THE END OF THE WEEK
THE HUDSON BAY LOW BECOMES LESS DOMINANT AND AN H500 BROAD RIDGE
MOVES INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN REGION. THIS MAY LEAD TO A BREAK IN
THE COLD PATTERN FOR EASTER WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 334 AM CDT SAT APR 12 2014

EXPECT MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND VIRGA TO BECOME MVFR CEILINGS
NORTH (KISN-KMOT) IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA
TONIGHT...AND SHOULD DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST SATURDAY MORNING.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.
WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING AS STRONGER COLD
ADVECTION BEGINS WITH CIGS BECOMING MVFR.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JV
LONG TERM...WAA
AVIATION...JV








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