Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 230550
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
1250 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1244 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Isolated showers were moving southeast across parts of western and
central ND. Latest short term high res models indicate another area
of showers moving out of Canada into north central ND later this
morning around 4 am cdt, moving into the Bismarck and Jamestown
areas around sunrise, then pushing southeast out of the state late
this morning. Latest model runs indicate 3-hr pressure rises around
3-5 mb entering western ND around midnight, then expanding eastward
overnight. Highest pressure rises around 5 mb expected across
northern ND, where the wind advisory will take effect around 3 am
cdt. Latest models runs indicate the best pressure rise bubble will
exit central ND around noon, but good cold advection will allow
momentum transfer to the surface from 40-50 knots aloft. Thus wind
advisory appears valid for all of western and central ND on
Monday.

UPDATE Issued at 947 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Isolated to scattered showers continue to push through the area as
broad cyclonic flow with a variety of waves moving through linger
over the region. These showers are continuing to mix some stronger
winds aloft down to the surface, so have issued another special
weather statement addressing this. Later tonight, widespread gusty
winds are still expected to increase over the area. Updates have
been sent.

UPDATE Issued at 643 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Some higher wind gusts are being reported in areas where shower
activity is passing over, which corresponds with the inverted V
sounding showing up on the recent upper air balloon launch here
at the office. Have put out a special weather statement over much
of western North Dakota where most of the shower activity lingers.
Also, have added the mention of thunder over the west where some
weak instability is noted, with some lighting noticed along the
Montana and South Dakota borders. Updates have been sent.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday)
Issued at 426 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Strong northwest winds will impact western and central North Dakota
Monday.

Through Monday a surface low will continue a northeast push into
the Northern Great Lakes region. Strong northwest winds,
associated with this system, will impact western and central ND.
Winds will increase through the early morning hours of Monday and
persist through the afternoon. Early morning gusts near 50 mph
and a chance for rain are possible in northern and central areas.
Southern areas could see 50 mph gusts through the afternoon. A
pressure rise bubble, with a 3-HR rise max of 8MB, is advertised
by the 12Z GFS/NAM to enter northwest ND between 08Z-10Z. BUFKIT
soundings are indicating peak winds at the top of the mixed layer
near 50kts across the CWA. Momentum transfer is expected as strong
cold air advection and steep mid-level lapse rates around 8C/km
accompany this system.

It is possible gusts will reach high wind warning criteria though
confidence in issuing a warning is shaky due to the strongest mix
layer winds, CAA, and steep mid-level lapse rates being slightly
misaligned.

A Wind Advisory has been issued for northwest and north central
North Dakota from 3 AM (CDT) Monday through 7 PM (CDT) Monday
evening and for southwest and south central North Dakota from 9 AM
(CDT) Monday through 7 PM (CDT) Monday evening.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Sunday)
Issued at 426 PM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

Chilly with a chance for snow later in the week.

A strong surface low/cold front is projected to move into North
Dakota Wed night/Thursday; highlighted well within the GFS/ECMWF.
Thursday looks to be another windy day, as strong CAA/gradient
forcing will likely result during and after the frontal passage. The
GFS/ECMWF suggest a rain to snow changeover late Wed night into the
day Thursday, when temperatures aloft become subzero. Blended models
have trended towards cooler daytime temperatures Thursday with 30s
west and north, 40s elsewhere. Below average temperatures are
forecast to persist Thursday through the extended, as the associated
upper level trough is forecast dig into the Northern Plains and
loiter through the weekend.

Uncertainty does remain on timing and precipitation chances, this
far in advance.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)

Issued at 1250 AM CDT Mon Oct 23 2017

Main aviation hazard will be strong northwest winds and/or strong
low level wind shear through Monday afternoon. Strong pressure
gradient will produce northwest winds through much of the period
with gusts from 35-40KTs. From now through mid morning, low level
wind shear will be problematic. Isolated showers moving east
across the region have also been producing wind gusts to near or
in excess of 50KTs. Shower activity should be decreasing now
though 10Z. Low VFR/MVFR cigs will push southeast out of Canada
momentarily, and will impact KMOT and perhaps KJMS if they hold
together.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory until 7 PM CDT /6 PM MDT/ this evening for
NDZ001>005-009>013-017>019-021>023-025.

Wind Advisory from 9 AM CDT /8 AM MDT/ this morning to 7 PM CDT
/6 PM MDT/ this evening for NDZ020-031>037-040>048-050-051.

&&

$$

UPDATE...JV
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...NH


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