Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 231954

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
254 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Precipitation this afternoon and evening with isolated
thunderstorms possible south central this afternoon highlight the
short term forecast.

Isolated convection as of 1945 UTC has developed in an area of
clearing and destabilization across far south central North
Dakota, especially along zones of differential heating on the
cloud edges. Thus, added a mention of thunderstorms for these
areas for this afternoon and early evening.

Otherwise, rain across the southwest through the upper James River
Valley in association with strong 700-600mb frontogenesis will
slowly diminish through the early evening. The 15-18 UTC high
resolution, rapidly updating suites within their visibility
forecasts do suggest the potential for fog develop tonight into
Friday morning which is plausible given the abundant low level
moisture in place across the area.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Above normal temperatures highlight the extended forecast.

The 12 UTC global models are in agreement on split flow across the
Northern Plains Friday and Saturday with an upper level ridge
potentially building across the region Monday into Tuesday, before
another potential return to split flow late next week. This
overall favors above normal temperatures with highs in the 40s and
50s and sporadic, weak precipitation events.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Vfr cigs and vfr/mvfr vsbys in light rain chances from KDIK /KBIS to
KJMS will continue this afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms are
possible across portions of far south central North Dakota. Attention
then turns to fog/low clouds tonight. Expect ifr/mvfr cigs/vsbys
developing from north to south tonight, which will linger into the
latter half of the TAF period, 12z-18z Friday.


Issued at 242 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

Lake Darling will increase discharge to 1200 cubic feet per second
Thursday afternoon. Increased discharge will result in river levels
rising above minor flood stage later today. Additional increases are
likely over the coming days. Stay tuned to the Bismarck Office of the
National Weather Service for updates on future forecasts.




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