Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 211408

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
908 AM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

Issued at 903 AM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

Scattered to numerous rain showers continue across the northern
third of the forecast area. Across the south mainly virga is
noted with little if any rain reaching the ground. So little
change needed to current forecast and just needed to update
current conditions.

UPDATE Issued at 629 AM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

Rain showers continue to the north, with a few showers further
south with an occasional small thunderstorm. For morning update
only change was to adjust precipitation chances slightly towards
current trends. Updates have been sent.


.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

Water vapor imagery shows an upper low circulating off the
Washington coast with an intensifying 300mb jet on the back side
of the upper low/trough. With stronger winds on the back side
expect a slow movement and continued digging into the Great Basin
through the short term period. With the current position of the
upper low, a long fetch of southwest flow aloft and several
shortwaves embedded within the flow continue to take aim at
northwest ND. This will continue today, then abate somewhat
tonight as the upper trough shifts a bit farther south and
transitions from positively tilted to neutral. In doing so,
downstream mid/upper level height rises develop over western and
central ND, with a deformation zone developing in north central
MT. Overall effect will be less precipitation and smaller areal
coverage across northwest ND tonight into Thursday. In terms of
instability today, will follow the NAM and SPC Day 1 outlook which
covers mostly the west for a slight chance of thunderstorms.

Highs will range from the mid 50s northwest to around 70 south
central and the James River Valley.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

The upper low/trough slowly meanders through the Great Basin
Thursday and Friday while transitioning to negatively tilted as
the jet streak works through the base of the upper trough. In
doing so, southerly flow increases downstream into ND, with the
deformation zone shifting into western ND. This will allow for
increasing chances for showers Thursday night through Friday west
and gradually into central ND. As the upper low/trough translates
from eastern Idaho Friday into central ND Sunday, expect scattered
to widespread showers along with a cold frontal passage Saturday.
Greatest instability/cape and shear migrate into western and
central ND Friday and Saturday ahead of the approaching upper low
and surface cold front. Hence, will maintain thunderstorms in the
forecast during this time. Gusty northwest winds and scattered
showers linger behind the cold front and ahead of the upper trough
Saturday night through Sunday. May possibly need a wind advisory
Sunday as boundary layer winds are advertised at 30kt. The James
River Valley maintains some shower activity into Monday as the
upper low moves into Minnesota, with drier conditions into western
and most of central ND. Dry weather expected Tuesday into


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 629 AM CDT Wed Sep 21 2016

-SHRA will continue today over northwest North Dakota, with areas
of MVFR CIGS. Elsewhere, low end VFR conditions are expected with
occasional showers, mainly early this morning. Mainly quiet
conditions expected tonight with a few rain showers northwest.




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