Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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000
FXUS63 KBIS 191306
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
806 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 806 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

THE LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS HIGH
PRESSURE NEAR HARVEY WITH A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY ACROSS WESTERN AND
CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. 3HR PRESSURE CHANGE INDICATES RISING MOTION
ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT/WARM AIR ADVECTION...FROM SOUTHEAST
ALBERTA/SOUTHWEST SASKATCHEWAN AND INTO EASTERN MONTANA. HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS MAINTAIN SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING IN THE
SOUTHWEST BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON ALONG/AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY.
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE/89F AT DICKINSON WILL BE REACHED BY 21Z.
CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS AREA HANDLED WELL WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WEST. MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO CURRENT TEMPERATURES WITH MID TO UPPER 40S BEING
REPORTED FROM TIOGA TO HAZEN. REST OF FORECAST IS IN GOOD SHAPE.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

FORECASTS WERE UPDATED VERY SLIGHTLY TO REFLECT ONGOING
PRECIPITATION TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
WAS FAR ENOUGH EAST AND SOUTH THAT THE ONLY REMAINING IMPACT ON
SENSIBLE WEATHER WAS A NORTHWEST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH. AS THE SURFACE
HIGH BEHIND THE FRONT MOVES QUICKLY SOUTHEAST TODAY PRESSURE FALLS
WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MOVE INTO THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH A THERMAL RIDGE ALONG THE
MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA BORDER BRING WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE AND
INCREASING INSTABILITY TO THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON. LACKING IS ANY
MID LEVEL SUPPORT WAVE. WITH THAT...HAVE KEPT THE LOW POPS...20
PERCENT OR LOWER...THAT WAS ONGOING IN THE FORECAST FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WEST.

AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES TODAY IT WILL RESULT IN SHIFTING
WINDS...FROM THE SOUTHEAST UP TO 20 MPH. AS IT MOVES INTO THE
EASTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY EVENING A WEAK MID
LEVEL WAVE ADVANCES OUT OF MONTANA AND INTERCEPTS THE SURFACE
TROUGH. THIS ADDS WEAK MID LEVEL SUPPORT AND JUSTIFIES LOW POPS
...AGAIN 20 PERCENT OR LESS...FOR THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AREA.

WITH THE THERMAL RIDGE THROUGH NORTH DAKOTA SUNDAY...ALONG WITH
NEARLY 100 PERCENT SUNSHINE...EXPECT EVEN HIGHER TEMPERATURES.

.LONG TERM...(SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 325 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

DEVELOPMENT OF THE TYPICAL JULY FOUR CORNERS SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS
FORECAST THIS WEEK AS MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING DEEPENS INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW THE MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PROGRESS INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. IF THE LOW MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS
FASTER...WEDNESDAY EVENING PRECIPITATION WOULD ARRIVE SOONER THAN
PREDICTED...AND VICE VERSA. SIMILAR IMPACTS TO TEMPERATURE ARE
EXPECTED...BUT ARE EVEN MORE DIFFICULT TO PREDICT.

THE BOTTOM LINE...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 625 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2014

A LAYER OF SHALLOW FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT KBIS...SO TAFS WERE
ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE LATER
TODAY...BUT THE SMALL AREAL COVERAGE WILL KEEP UNCERTAINTY HIGH
ENOUGH TO AVOID ADDITION OF VCTS INTO TAFS.


&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...KS
SHORT TERM...JPM
LONG TERM...SCHECK
AVIATION...SCHECK






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